Category: Crude Oil
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, January 05, 2015
Oil Price Plunge, When Exactly Are Falling Prices Bad? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Peter_Schiff
The sudden fall in the price of oil provides a unique opportunity to examine the widely held belief that deflation is economic poison. As many governments and central banks have vowed to fight deflation at all costs in 2015, the question could hardly be more significant.
While falling prices may strike the layman as cause for celebration, economists believe that it can kick off a nasty, and often inescapable, negative cycle, which many believe leads inevitably to a prolonged recession, or even a depression. However, these same economists acknowledge that falling energy prices may offer a stimulus, equivalent to an enormous "tax cut," particularly for lower and middle income consumers for whom energy costs represent a major portion of disposable income. They suggest that the money consumers and businesses no longer spend on gasoline and heating oil could be spent on other goods and services thereby creating demand in other areas of the economy. Even Fed Chair Janet Yellen, a staunch advocate of the economic benefits of rising consumer prices, has extolled the benefits of falling oil prices.
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Saturday, January 03, 2015
Did the U.S. and the Saudis Conspire to Push Down Oil Prices? / Politics / Crude Oil
By: Mike_Whitney
Are falling oil prices part of a US-Saudi plan to inflict economic damage on Russia, Iran and Venezuela?
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro seems to think so. In a recent interview that appeared in Reuters, Maduro said he thought the United States and Saudi Arabia wanted to drive down oil prices “to harm Russia.”
Bolivian President Evo Morales agrees with Maduro and told journalists at RT that: “The reduction in oil prices was provoked by the US as an attack on the economies of Venezuela and Russia. In the face of such economic and political attacks, the nations must be united.”
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Saturday, January 03, 2015
2015: Why's the Oil Price Collapsing? Answer: $8+ Trillion Carry Trade / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: DK_Matai
Most in the media are utterly clueless about what's coming in 2015. It is incumbent upon ATCA 5000 to clarify the situation as we did prior to the start of The Great Reset and The Great Unwind during 2007-2008 based on our global intelligence gathering, detailed scenario planning and mathematical modelling of capital allocation and trans-national flows:
Wednesday, December 31, 2014
Crude Oil Large Speculators Play Catch a Falling Knife / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Dan_Norcini
Another week – another CFTC report – more of the same, namely the large speculative category, hedge funds and other reportable traders, continue their love affair with crude oil. This, in spite of the fact that the black goo has lost 50% of its price since June of this year.
I have said now for the last few weeks and will say it once more, I am completely mystified and baffled as to how the supposedly smartest and most informed traders on the planet could have gotten this market so wrong. Not only that, but that they continue to stay wrong!
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Monday, December 29, 2014
Did Saudis And US Collude In Dropping Crude Oil Prices? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The oil price drop that has dominated the headlines in recent weeks has been framed almost exclusively in terms of oil market economics, with most media outlets blaming Saudi Arabia, through its OPEC Trojan horse, for driving down the price, thus causing serious damage to the world's major oil exporters – most notably Russia.
While the market explanation is partially true, it is simplistic, and fails to address key geopolitical pressure points in the Middle East.
Saturday, December 27, 2014
2015 Crude Oil Prices Won't Change the Emerging U.S. Dominance / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: My recent meetings in Dubai highlighted the profound change that will turn the balance of power in the energy industry on its head.
For years, OPEC was the puppet master, and the United States (and the rest of the world) were the puppets. They pulled the strings, and we danced. OPEC set the price of oil. OPEC controlled the supply.
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Wednesday, December 24, 2014
In 2015 the U.S. Will Elbow OPEC Oil to the Sidelines / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: My recent meetings in Dubai highlighted the profound change that will turn the balance of power in the energy industry on its head.
For years, OPEC was the puppet master, and the U.S. (and the rest of the world) were the puppets. They pulled the strings, and we danced. OPEC set the price of oil. OPEC controlled the supply.
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Tuesday, December 23, 2014
Make No Mistake, the Crude Oil Price Slump Is Going to Hurt the US Too / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Marin_Katusa
If you only paid attention to the mainstream media, you’d be forgiven for thinking that the US is going to get away from the collapse in oil prices scot free. According to popular belief, America is even going to be a net winner from cheaper oil prices, because they will act like a tax cut for US consumers. Or so we are told.
In reality, though, many of the jobs the US energy boom has created in the last few years are now at risk, and their loss could drag the economy into a recession.
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Sunday, December 21, 2014
The Damage Caused By the Oil Bear Will Spread Far and Wide / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Michael E. Lewitt writes: Oil prices continued to fall this week but stock markets shrugged off the disarray this continued to cause in global markets after Janet Yellen whispered soothing words in their ears after the Fed's last meeting of the year on Wednesday. Mrs. Yellen has become a "bull whisperer" – fearful of upsetting the equity market, she cloaks her words in indirection and equivocation in an effort to keep them calm as she prays for an economic lift-off that will take her institution off the hook.
Unfortunately, her patient is likely to be very disappointed, for it would take an economic miracle the likes of which hasn't been seen in this country since the years after the Second World War to deal with the mountain of existing debt and future liabilities that are going to bury us.
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Saturday, December 20, 2014
Oil Drilling Our Way Into Oblivion / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Oh, that sweet black gold won’t leave us alone, will it? West Texas Intermediate went through some speedbumps Friday, but ended over +5%, though still only at $57. Think them buyers know something we don’t? I don’t either. I see people covering lousy bets. And PPT (and that’s not the one we used to spray our crops with).
The damage done must be epic by now, throughout the financial system, but we’re not hearing much about that yet, are we? We will in time, not to worry. Everyone’s invested in oil, and big time too, and they’ve all just become party to a loss of about half of what both oil itself and oil stocks were worth just this summer.
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Friday, December 19, 2014
Why Russia Will Halt the Ruble’s Slide and Keep Pumping Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Marin_Katusa
The harsh reality is that U.S. shale fields have much more to fear from plummeting oil prices than the Russians, since their costs of production are much higher, says Marin Katusa, author of The Colder War: How the Global Energy Trade Slipped from America’s Grasp.
Russia’s ruble may have strengthened sharply Wednesday, but it’s plunge in recent days has encouraged plenty of talk about the country’s catastrophe, with some even proclaiming that the new Russia is about to go the way of the old USSR.
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Friday, December 19, 2014
Oil Prices: A True Black Swan or the Work of Vultures? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Oil prices are struggling to stabilize in the wake of what some are calling a “black swan” event.
It refers to a theory popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a well-known risk analyst and statistician.
A black swan is an outlier, a development that fails to follow any normal pattern.
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Thursday, December 18, 2014
Crude Oil Price: What's Next? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
Today, there is no shortage of opinions about oil.
So why should you bother reading this one?
Because 99% of oil forecasts out there are based on so-called fundamentals. The same "fundamentals" that back in June, when oil cost $107 a barrel, promised even higher prices due to:
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Thursday, December 18, 2014
Crude Oil Price - The Doji-generated Reversal? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
The price of crude oil declined yesterday once again - was the bottom reached yet?
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Tuesday, December 16, 2014
Crude Oil Price Epic Blowout / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Bob_Loukas
The FED’s easy money has encouraged rampant energy speculation and over-investment, resulting in more than $500 billion in new loans and investments in just the past 4 years. And so long as Crude prices stayed comfortably above $90, investments made money and everyone was happy. But once energy prices started falling, the decline quickly became a negative loop-back effect because the very high levels of leverage could not tolerate the move. Whenever asset prices fall in a highly levered market, there is often a sudden lack of liquidity to absorb the speculators’ need to unwind leverage, leading to desperation and fire sales. In the case of energy, the sudden disappearance of “investors” highlights just how speculative the underlying market had become.
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
Stunning Crude Oil Price Crash - Black Gold Loses its Glitter / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Peter_Schiff
The stunning 40% drop in the price of oil over the past few months has scrambled global economic forecasts, changed the geo-political landscape, and has severely pressured many energy sector investments. Economists are scratching their heads to determine if the drop is good or bad for the economy or whether cheap oil will add to or decrease unemployment, or complicate the global effort to "defeat" deflation. While all of these issues merit detailed discussions, the first question to address is if the steep drop is here to stay and whether energy prices will stay low enough, for long enough, to seriously reshuffle the economic deck. Based on a variety of factors, this is not likely to happen. I believe a series of technical, industrial, and monetary factors will combine to push oil back up to, and potentially beyond, the levels that it has seen over the last few years.
Monday, December 15, 2014
Is The Oil Price Collapse A Monumental Black Swan? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: DK_Matai
Although the conditions for an oil price collapse have been there since 2013, yet when it arrived in the second half of 2014, it happened suddenly and then accelerated in momentum like a snowball rolling down the Alps. A truly monumental black swan with many cascading consequences for geo-strategy, financial markets and the global economy. Ten key questions discussed at a recent private lunch ATCA 5000 hosted for select chairmen and chief executives of major financial institutions, family offices and technology players:
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Sunday, December 14, 2014
Crude Oil Price Crashing Towards $40 per Barrel / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Joseph_Russo
From speculation of international currency wars, to related geopolitical tensions, to the economics of actual supply-demand equations, there is no shortage of theories as to the reasons behind the recent tumble in crude, or if such a decline bodes ill or well for the economy of main street.
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Friday, December 12, 2014
Petro Dollar Ponzi Madness / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
The drop in commodity, and especially oil prices, has been spectacular. The price action has generated a wide range of commentary. Some say this is a reflection of the true state of the global economy. Like the Baltic dry goods index or electricity consumption.
Some will say the fall in oil is deflationary - priced in as the inevitable confluence of factors ranging from demographics to lack of real economic growth manifest. Or it is more evidence of failed monetary policy. And paradoxically, another excuse to double down and go the way of Japan in pursuit of a lost decade muddle thru.
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Friday, December 12, 2014
Will Crude Oil Kill The Zombies? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Oil producer Russia hikes rates to 10.5% as the ruble continues to plunge, while fellow producer Norway does the opposite, and cuts its rates, but also sees its currency plummet. As Greek stocks lose another 7.35% after Tuesday’s 13% loss on rumors about what the left leaning Syriza party will or will not do if it wins upcoming elections, and virtually anonymous Dubai drops 7.42%. We all know the story of the chain and its weakest link, and beware, these really still ARE global markets.