Category: Crude Oil
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Wednesday, April 22, 2015
How to Profit from the Drop in the Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil
Over the past three quarters, the world has watched oil prices plummet from over $100 to its current price of $51/barrel of the grade West Texas Intermediate (WTI). Due to oil’s vital role in the global economy, this massive decline naturally raises questions as to the reasons behind the decline and the perdurability of these lower oil prices. Today we will give you a more in-depth analysis of what is going on in the oil market and offer potential investment implications resulting from these developments.
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Monday, April 20, 2015
Crude Oil Price Bull Market Hope / Commodities / Crude Oil
I believe that energy analysts are absolutely delusional to think Crude production will slow significantly, especially with Oil back near the $60 mark. During the recent, lengthy bull market, tens of billions of Dollars were invested in Crude infrastructure, so there is too much at stake to simply shut down operations and walk away. Investors and participants in any industry that has experienced a 15 year bull market won't change their beliefs overnight - it takes time for sentiment to shift. Most are far too emotionally and financially vested in the industry, so it's unreasonable to think that a 9 month decline is going to drive an immediate adjustment to the imbalance in supply and demand.
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Friday, April 17, 2015
Production Declines Hide Bigger Crude Oil Storage Issues / Commodities / Crude Oil
Cushing added another 1.3 million barrels to weekly storage and stands at 61.5 million barrels. The Gulf Coast added another 600 thousand barrels to storage and stands at 237 million barrels. By comparison Cushing had 26.8 million barrels in storage this time last year, and the Gulf Coast had 207.2 million barrels in storage a year ago.
Friday, April 17, 2015
Top Three Takeaways From Today’s OPEC Crude Oil Report… and How You Can Profit / Commodities / Crude Oil
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Today I’ve got a “below the surface” read on what is really happening inside OPEC.
Frankly, I had not planned to devote so many essays to the cartel and its policies. After all, the organization is no longer the center of the energy universe.
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Thursday, April 16, 2015
More Thoughts on the Current Crude Oil Market / Commodities / Crude Oil
WTI surged to close at $56.01 a barrel on Wednesday, while Brent closed at $62.86 after the US crude oil inventories showed a 'less-than-expected increase'. The latest weekly inventory (week ending April 10) from EIA showed an increase of 1.3 million barrels, much less than the 10.9 million barrels of build from the previous week. The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles rose by 2.0 million barrels.
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Wednesday, April 15, 2015
OPEC Going Broke, Dumping U.S. Dollars. Is That Good Or Bad? / Commodities / Crude Oil
When oil prices fell out of bed last winter there was much hand-wringing over the fate of the former beneficiaries of high-priced crude. Trillions of dollars of junk bonds issued by frackers, for instance, might default, oil field services companies could fail, and layoffs in the oil patch might swamp the nascent employment recovery.
Some of this has happened, though not on the apocalyptic scale the worst-case scenarios suggested. More might be coming, but right now it’s not headline news in North America.
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Wednesday, April 15, 2015
OPEC Just Confirmed It’s Losing the Oil War / Commodities / Crude Oil
Dr. Kent Moors writes: The solid façade of OPEC is crumbling.
The latest indication that all is not well within the ranks of the oil cartel came yesterday, when the organization released its monthly Bulletin.
Inside the magazine, the commentary slammed non-member nations for failing to follow the organization’s lead in “stabilizing” oil prices and having “go it alone” attitudes.
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Wednesday, April 15, 2015
Crude Oil Price Technical Outlook / Commodities / Crude Oil
Following part 1 of the Technical outlook for oil on April 7, this report examines the effect of the secular Commodity cycle on stocks (S&P 500), the U.S dollar on the CRB and WTIC's price since 1980.
Chart 1 is the S&P 500 since 1960. It traces the different trading patterns of the U.S. index during a secular Commodity cycle (1965-1980), a Stock cycle (1980-2000) and through another Commodity cycle (2000-2013) and the beginning of a new Stock cycle (2013 to present).
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Friday, April 10, 2015
Oil Price - How Much Longer Can OPEC Hold Out? / Commodities / Crude Oil
OPEC has been the most talked about international organization among investors, analysts and international political lobbies in the last few months.
When OPEC speaks, the world listens in rapt attention as it accounts for nearly 40 % of the world's total crude output. With its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, one of the mandates of 12- member OPEC is to "ensure the stabilization of oil markets in order to secure an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consumers, a steady income to producers, and a fair return on capital for those investing in the petroleum industry." (Source: opec.org).
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Friday, April 10, 2015
Saudi Arabia Just Delivered Another Strike in the “Oil War” / Commodities / Crude Oil
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Saudi Arabia just sent the most powerful signal yet it means business in the “Oil War.”
On Tuesday, oil minister Ali al-Naimi revealed Saudi oil production jumped in March to 10.3 million barrels a day.
That marked an increase of 700,000 barrels per day from February, or the biggest ramp in production since November 2011. That figure is now expected to remain around 10 million barrels for some time.
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Thursday, April 09, 2015
Iran Nuclear "Deal" Won't Drive Crude Oil Prices Lower / Commodities / Crude Oil
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Here at Money Morning we recently had the opportunity to sit down with Dr. Kent Moors, Money Map Press' Global Energy Strategist, for a quick chat about oil.
Kent had taken time out of his frequent world travels – scoping out the latest global energy profit developments – to stop by our HQ in Baltimore.
Here's what he told us about his "ground level" view of the real impact recent geopolitical events in Iran will have on the price of oil.
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Thursday, April 09, 2015
Top 12 Media Myths On Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
The upstream oil and gas industry is not a black hole. There's no mystery wrapped in an enigma here.
There are a lot of meetings with engineers, chemists and geologists. There's a constantly evolving learning curve. And then there's all the regulations and compliance. But all-in-all it's pretty straight forward, that is, until the media gets a hold of it. That's when it becomes complicated. It's as though we are getting reports from the mysteries of the deep ocean or life in the great galaxies beyond. There is so much hyperbole and unsupported guesswork that investors don't have a chance. So, in a small effort to set the record straight, let's see if we can't dispel some of the misinformation.
Thursday, April 09, 2015
Crude Oil Price Breaks Above One Support, but the More Important One Still Holds / Commodities / Crude Oil
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
The last 2 days were quite encouraging for crude oil bulls as the black gold rallied above 2 declining resistance lines and the volume during yesterday's upswing was high. Is this enough to make the outlook bullish?
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Wednesday, April 08, 2015
The Technical Outlook for Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil
Commodities normally go through a multi-year phase of strength and performance against the benchmark S&P 500 and then an approximate equal period of time of underperformance to the U.S. index.
Each stage of this Commodity/Stock cycle, lasts on average about 18 years. This has been the pattern for over 100 years.
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Tuesday, April 07, 2015
Brent Crude Oil Price Looks to be Heading Higher From Here / Commodities / Crude Oil
Brent Crude looks to have started a second leg up off the January bottom of 45.22, indicating Brent has a good chance of heading higher from here. A decisive drop below the most recent swing low at 52.61 changes the bullish scenario shown in the below daily chart.
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Tuesday, March 24, 2015
Thoughts on The Current Crude Oil Market / Commodities / Crude Oil
Crude oil has slid into a definitive bear market starting 2H14. Since most of the oil companies (majors as well as E&Ps) based their budget, growth, and strategy trajectory on ~$50 oil price scenario even for the most conservative, the current ~ $45 WTI price environment has created a crisis situation for many oil and gas producers.
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Friday, March 20, 2015
Beware of Pundits Playing the "Iran Oil Card" / Commodities / Crude Oil
Dr. Kent Moors writes: It's getting to be crunch time in the negotiations between the West and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program.
Despite an ill-advised attempt by U.S. senators to scuttle the talks, it's clear the negotiations in Geneva will continue.
Now, TV pundits have taken to the airwaves suggesting that an agreement would flood the market with Iranian oil.
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Friday, March 20, 2015
What the “Yellen Effect” Ultimately Means for Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Janet Yellen sure has a way with the markets…
As the Fed Chair delivered her unexpectedly dovish message, the Dow bounced almost 400 points off yesterday’s lows.
Even so, that move paled in comparison to the even bigger move she triggered in oil prices.
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Wednesday, March 18, 2015
The Truth About Iran’s Impact on Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
Kent Moors writes: It’s getting to be crunch time in the negotiations between the West and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program.
Despite an ill-advised attempt by U.S. Senators to scuttle the talks, it’s clear the negotiations in Geneva will continue.
Now, TV pundits have taken to the airwaves suggesting that an agreement would flood the market with Iranian oil.
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Tuesday, March 17, 2015
Why Lower Crude Oil Prices Could Drive Gold Higher / Commodities / Crude Oil
We view gold as monetary asset; therefore our directional views on the yellow metal are primarily a function of our expectations of monetary policy. After being very bullish on gold in the years following the global financial crisis as the Fed pursued highly accommodative monetary policy and quantitative easing, we turned bearish on gold at the end of 2012 as the period of easing monetary policy appeared to be coming to an end. We have maintained our bearish stance as the Fed has moved towards tightening monetary policy, however the recent fall in oil prices has caused us to question our view, and whilst we remain bearish over the longer term, we now think that gold prices could bounce from current levels.
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