Category: Crude Oil
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Tuesday, June 02, 2015
Why Oil’s Price Is Baffling Analysts (but Not Us) / Commodities / Crude Oil
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: It sure has been amusing to watch the oil instant experts trying to shove “square peg” explanations into “round hole” price moves this week.
For most of yesterday’s trading session, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices were declining about 1% after a huge 4.5% rise on Friday. Once again, the “experts” had instant prognostications, once again they signaled a familiar refrain – a strong dollar, oversupply – and once again they missed the boat.
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Saturday, May 30, 2015
U.S. Crude Oil Production Sets New Modern Record / Commodities / Crude Oil
Tuesday, May 26, 2015
Crude Oil Price Stochastic Signals / Commodities / Crude Oil
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $65.23 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
The Stochastic indicator is quite a popular tool for commodity traders (including those interested in trading crude oil and precious metals) and it is not without a reason. This indicator has proven itself many times as something that can really indicate the next move in the market – however, it has to be applied carefully, as not all ways in which it works are really profitable. We have just seen 2 signals from this important indicator – one bullish (based on daily closing prices) and one bearish (based on weekly closing prices). Which should one focus on?
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Wednesday, May 20, 2015
Three Hidden Forces Pushing Crude Oil Price Back Up / Commodities / Crude Oil
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: The overall trajectory for oil prices remains upward, despite taking a breather today. I still see prices reaching $65-68 for West Texas Intermediate (WTI, the benchmark traded on the NYMEX) and $73-78 for Dated Brent (the other major benchmark set daily in London).
But this is hardly going to be a straight, linear rise. Rather, it’s going to occur in what I call a “ratcheting” pattern: occasionally jerking downward along the way.
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Tuesday, May 19, 2015
Crude Oil Trading Alert - Price Drops to Neck Line / Commodities / Crude Oil
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $65.23 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil gained 0.49% as a weaker greenback supported the price. As a result, light crude bounced off the neck line of a bearish formation. Will we see further improvement in the coming days?
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Wednesday, May 13, 2015
Debunking the Newest Crude Oil Price Myth / Commodities / Crude Oil
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: We've seen massive shifts in crude oil prices in recent weeks.
Of course, this has brought back some rather specious arguments by talking heads on TV and pundits spinning the next Armageddon scenario.
The latest is about how rising oil prices will prompt more volume to come online from a particular type of well (called DUCs), sending oil into another tailspin.
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Wednesday, May 13, 2015
Saudi Arabia Continues To Turn Screws On U.S. Oil Shale / Commodities / Crude Oil
Saudi Arabia continues to ratchet up production, taking market share away from U.S. shale producers.According to OPEC's latest monthly oil report, Saudi Arabia boosted its oil output to 10.31 million barrels per day in April, a slight increase over the previous month's total of 10.29 million barrels. That was enough for the de facto OPEC leader to claim its highest oil production level in more than three decades.
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Wednesday, May 13, 2015
The Real Key to This Week’s Crude Oil Price Uncertainty / Commodities / Crude Oil
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: Quick update on oil, because it’s been quite the week already…
This morning West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark crude oil futures rate in New York, rose over $1 a barrel in less than three hours. Meanwhile in London, Brent (the more widely used international dated benchmark) has increased even faster – over $1.50 during the same period. Here’s where we stand as I write this:
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Monday, May 11, 2015
Is Crude Oil Price Rally Over? / Commodities / Crude Oil
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $65.23 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil moved lower after the market’s open weakened by a stronger U.S. dollar. Despite this move, the commodity reversed and rebounded in the following hours, gaining 0.85% and closing the day above $59, but did this upswing change anything?
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Sunday, May 10, 2015
Crude Oil Price Turn Coming? / Commodities / Crude Oil
Crude has had a very nice recovery off its recent low set in mid-March with a steady climb of nearly $20 since that time. The push through the declining 50 day moving average was the first real clue that the complexion of this market had changed in late March with the deciding factor being the second thrust back up through it once more in early April. That cemented the low near $43 as a solid bottom in the market.
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Friday, May 08, 2015
The Newest Crude Oil Price Myth / Commodities / Crude Oil
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: We’ve seen massive shifts in crude oil prices over the past two days.
Of course, this has brought back some rather specious arguments by talking heads on TV and pundits spinning the next Armageddon scenario. The latest is about how rising oil prices will prompt more volume to come online from a particular type of well (called DUCs), sending oil into another tailspin.
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Thursday, May 07, 2015
How to Pick the Winners in the Keystone Oil Pipeline Debate / Commodities / Crude Oil
MoneyMorning.com You might think the entire oil and gas industry is behind the Keystone XL Pipeline. And at the surface level that may be true. After all, the big oil industry lobby, the American Petroleum Institute (API), has spent millions promoting it through advertising and outreach to members of Congress. API are the folks who brought us all of those pro-Keystone commercials a few months ago.
Since API represents the industry, with over 600 members, the project must be good for everyone in the energy space, right?
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Thursday, May 07, 2015
Crude Oil Price Hit 2015 High / Commodities / Crude Oil
Oil hit 2015 high with WTI at $60.40 and Bent at $68.40 end of trading on Tuesday. Crude prices have now risen 50% in just over three months. The overall oil market sentiment is very bullish as CNBC reported hedge funds and money managers raised bets on rising Brent prices to another record, data showed on Monday, pushing net long positions to their highest since official exchange records began in 2011.
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Wednesday, May 06, 2015
Keystone Pipeline and the Mixed Blessings of Cheap Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
MoneyMorning.com To understand the logic behind the Keystone XL pipeline requires a trip back in time. When Keystone and its associated 830,000 barrels of oil per day were announced in 2008, U.S. crude production was at lows generally not seen since 1950 – right around 5 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, U.S. oil imports were rampant, near their all-time highs of 10 million barrels a day. Worse yet, over half of U.S. imports, again a near-record high of 5.6 million barrels per day, came from countries that don’t like us very much (i.e., OPEC).
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Wednesday, May 06, 2015
Crude Oil’s Big Move Comes Down to One Thing / Commodities / Crude Oil
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: Look at this headline from the Houston Business Journal last week: “U.S. Rig Count Free Falls in Texas, Oil Prices ‘Unsustainable.'”
Or this one from Bloomberg Business, which reported Sunday: “The Shale Boom Has Already Gone Bust.”
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Tuesday, May 05, 2015
The Truth Behind the Keystone Pipeline / Commodities / Crude Oil
Editor's Note: The Keystone Pipeline has created one of the biggest political debates of the last five years. And you're about to hear a lot more in the media as the we move closer to the State Department's final ruling on the project.
But what is the truth about Keystone? And where are the lies hidden? More importantly, where can we invest to exploit its ongoing political soap opera?
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Tuesday, May 05, 2015
Crude Oil Price Meets Solid Resistance / Commodities / Crude Oil
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Although crude oil hit a fresh 2015 high on Friday, an increase in Iraq's export levels and a stronger greenback weighed on investors' sentiment and pushed the commodity lower. As a result, light crude lost 0.85% and closed the day under the previous high. Where will crude oil head next in the coming week?
On Friday, Baker Hughes showed in its weekly report that oil rigs fell by 24 last week to 679. With this drop, the number of active rigs has fallen for a record 21 weeks in a row (the lowest level since September 2010), but the pace of slowdown continued to decrease, which raised worries over another increase in domestic crude oil inventories.
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Saturday, May 02, 2015
Crude Oil Price Bear Market Is Over / Commodities / Crude Oil
I've said it before and I'll say it again. Forget about testing the 2009 lows. It ain't gonna happen. Not as far as I'm concerned anyway. The final low appears to be in place and while I think the downtrend is over I suspect the volatility is not.
Let's check out the technicals beginning with the small picture and then finishing with the big picture outlook.
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Friday, May 01, 2015
How One Chart Is Changing My Outlook on Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Today, something truly unique is underway – and you can see it clearly in the one simple chart I’m about to share.
The advent of huge shale and tight oil reserves in the U.S. has fundamentally altered the terrain of the international energy game.
We still call these reserves “unconventional” to distinguish them from traditional vertically drilled non-fracked wells. But due to the fact that most of the new production is coming from these rock-confined sources, they are certainly becoming mainstream.
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Thursday, April 23, 2015
U.S. Oil Glut: How High Can It Go? / Commodities / Crude Oil
Oil Glut Build in PAD3 Gulf Coast
As expected, EIA on Wednesday reported for week ending April 17, U.S. crude-oil inventories gained 5.3 million barrels to 489 million barrels, which is still the highest in at least 80 years, according to the EIA. Looking closer at each PAD region, almost all the inventory adds occurred in Gulf Coast PAD3; meanwhile, Cushing, OK added 738,000 barrels. Although 738,000 does not seem that bad by itself, Cushion is now is sitting on 62.2 million barrels of oil in storage (vs. a year ago inventory at 26 million barrels) , a new record high since April of 2004.Read full article... Read full article...