Category: Crude Oil
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Friday, July 24, 2015
OPEC Shorts Are Driving Down the Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: The conflict between OPEC and U.S. shale/tight oil producers has entered a new phase. And the result has been an accelerated decline in oil prices.
Last November (on Thanksgiving no less), Saudi Arabia led an OPEC decision to hold production stable, followed by a later significant increase in volume. For the first time, the cartel had opted to protect market share rather than price.
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Thursday, July 23, 2015
Crude Oil Price Slump is a Once in a Decade Opportunity to Make Money, Guaranteed / Commodities / Crude Oil
All investments carry risk. There are no safe investments in the sense that “you just can´t lose”. But risk can be greatly reduced, according to the entry point and the timespan of the investment.The commodities cycle
The world is currently awashed in oil and natural gas. This is the reality of today. But as sure as day follows night, this glut will turn into production deficit over the next few years. All commodities traders know this and have seen gluts turn into deficits dozens of times, in different markets. Why does this happen?
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Wednesday, July 22, 2015
Crude Oil Price Barrier of $50 Holds - For Now / Commodities / Crude Oil
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $65.23 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Although crude oil declined after the market's open, hitting a fresh multi-month low, the commodity rebounded in the following hours and closed the day above the Jul 7 low. Did this upswing change anything in the short-term picture of crude oil?
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Thursday, July 16, 2015
The Multi-Trillion Dollar Oil Market Swindle / Commodities / Crude Oil
In the past, I documented the overstatements by both the IEA and EIA in 2014 & 2015 in terms of supply, inventory and understatements of demand. Others also noticed these distortions and, whether intentional or not, they exist and they are very large in dollar terms. These distortions, which are affecting price through media hype and/or direct/indirect price manipulation, are quite possibly the largest in financial history.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 15, 2015
OPEC, Get Ready For The Second U.S. Oil Boom / Commodities / Crude Oil
What OPEC countries fear most is a follow-up technological revolution that will lead to a second oil boom in the U.S., and that fear is now being realized.A technological revolution spurred the U.S. oil boom that resulted in the greatest increase in domestic oil production in a century, and while that has stuttered in the face of a major oil price slump and an OPEC campaign to maintain a grip on market share, the American response could be another technological revolution that demonstrates that the first one was merely an impressive embryonic experiment.
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Wednesday, July 08, 2015
Don't Panic, Nothing Has Really Changed In The Oil Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil
Monday's 8% WTI crude decline is setting up a big opportunity for buyers. And there could be more to come. But this is driven by momentum, not by the fundamental conditions in the physical market.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 08, 2015
The Three Events That Just Sent Crude Oil Price Sinking… and Why There’s No Need to Panic / Commodities / Crude Oil
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: Yesterday, three geopolitical crises converged, sending the price of oil sinking.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for crude set in New York, was down 8%. Dated Brent, the internationally used benchmark set in London, slipped 6%.
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Tuesday, July 07, 2015
Brent Crude Oil Price Breaks out of Bearish Wedge / Commodities / Crude Oil
Brent Crude broke down from a bearish rising wedge formation several weeks ago, trading relatively sideways thereafter, until the tail end of last week when it fell below and closed below $60.97. The 50% retracement at $57.41 was surpassed yesterday to the downside, with the next target being around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $54.53, followed by the most recent swing low (C) at $52.61.
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Saturday, July 04, 2015
Crude Oil Price Forecast to Plunge Below $40 / Commodities / Crude Oil
In the after hours trading on Thursday oil broke below the May daily cycle low indicating a failed daily cycle is in progress, and confirming the intermediate top occurred on May 6th.
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Friday, July 03, 2015
How the New Iranian Nuclear Deal Will Impact Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: This week, reports emerged that a draft deal on Iran’s nuclear program would be reviewed by the Western negotiators. Crude oil prices plummeted – West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed down 4.2%, at $56.96 a barrel, the lowest since April 22.
The concern spurring the decline is that an agreement would lift the Western sanctions and allow Iranian oil to flood into the market, propelling prices down.
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Wednesday, July 01, 2015
How the Latest Greek Drama Will Affect the Price of Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: In Greek history, there is a story that after devising the Athenian system of governance the great classical lawgiver Solon was walking down from the sacred council site of the Areopagus when he was greeted by another citizen.
“Well, Solon, did you give Athens the best constitution possible?” the fellow asked.
“No,” Solon responded. “I gave her the best constitution she could accept.”
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Monday, June 29, 2015
U.S. Crude Oil Glut An EIA Invention? / Commodities / Crude Oil
In the latest weekly production data from the EIA, on the back of recent March revisions, the U.S. managed to post a 76,000 barrel per day increase in the lower 48. Production from Alaska fell by 61,000 barrels per day, putting overall U.S. output 15,000 barrels per day higher for the week ending June 12 compared to the previous week.This comes at a time when multimillion barrel draws have become the norm. It is important to note that lower 48 production is estimated based on an EIA black box model, while Alaska is virtually real time data. That suggests that the weekly supply estimates are hugely overestimated.
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Friday, June 26, 2015
Crude Oil Price Nearing Exhaustion / Commodities / Crude Oil
For an asset like Crude, which is normally extremely volatile, the current prolonged sideways range is very much out of character. Crude has us accustomed to daily swings of 2% to 3%, and to shorter term rallies/declines that draw in traders before reversing suddenly. Crude is generally an asset that fluctuates in price, so the current “flat-line” action is rare. Since the last Daily Cycle peaked on May 6th, Crude oil has been locked in a sideways trading range. Short term traders, expecting the usual crude oil volatility, are being chopped to pieces.
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Wednesday, June 24, 2015
Why I'm Revising My Crude Oil Price Outlook… Upward / Commodities / Crude Oil
MoneyMorning.com Kent Moors writes: I just left a closed-door meeting in Paris. Assembled here were some high-powered oil practitioners, the traders selling their productions, and the bankers financing all of it.
As often happens, the pundits and talking heads have been discussing matters quite similar to what was on our agenda. And as usual, their perspectives are very different from those of us "behind the scenes."
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Wednesday, June 24, 2015
Expect A Wave Of Consolidation In The Oil Industry / Companies / Crude Oil
As stated previously, asset monetization by small E&P operators will start in earnest in the second half of this year out of cash flow necessity. Most, if not all, smaller market capitalization companies, public or private, are still free cash flow negative (operating cash flow less capital expenditure) and only a few of the larger ones are now, or will be, based on guidance. The point is, with volumes languishing (and probably poised to decline) tied to a flat oil futures price curve and with economics marginal at $60 per barrel, many E&P operators find themselves running through hedges in 2015 and still in need to finance their already reduced capital spending.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 20, 2015
Where is the Crude Oil Price Heading Next / Commodities / Crude Oil
Bob Creed writes: Last month, OPEC held its 167th meeting in Vienna, Austria. The two main takeaways?
- One: The oil cartel will maintain production at 30 million barrels per day (bpd), with unofficial numbers above that.
- Two: Saudi Arabia’s price war against U.S. shale producers will continue.
Saturday, June 13, 2015
The Latest Saudi Ploy to Control World Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: From the hundreds of oil benchmark rates used around the world, two set daily have been dominant in determining the prices for the buying and selling of crude. One is Dated Brent, set in London and representing the average price from a basket of North Sea offshore production. The other is West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the grade set in New York.
As I have noted often in Oil & Energy Investor, Brent is applied more often in international trade than WTI. However, both of these benchmarks are better oil grades than well over 80% of all the oil actually traded.
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Thursday, June 11, 2015
Busting The "Canadian Bakken" Shale Oil Myth / Commodities / Crude Oil
The financial pages of Canadian newspapers have been full of headlines lately announcing the potential of two large shale oil fields in the Northwest Territories said to contain enough oil to rival the Bakken Formation of North Dakota and Montana.The report by Canada's National Energy Board (NEB) evaluated, for the first time, the volume of oil in place for the Canol and Bluefish shale formations, located in the territory's Mackenzie Plain. It found the "thick and geographically extensive" Canol formation is expected to contain 145 billion barrels of oil, while the "much thinner" Bluefish shale contains 46 billion barrels.
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Wednesday, June 10, 2015
key Issues Affecting the London Oil Market Today / Commodities / Crude Oil
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: Greetings from London, where I am hosting a special three-day event for a special group of subscribers. The sessions follow almost a year of preparation and are introducing a major stimulus to profits from investing in worldwide energy.
You will be hearing more about this approach in the future, so stay tuned.
Today, however, we have an immediate development to consider. The London market is again trying to make sense of events in oil. As I have noted here in Oil & Energy Investor on many occasions, the oil trade in London and the Dated Brent benchmark set here daily are more sensitive to global events than the trade in New York (where the other major benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, is set).
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Thursday, June 04, 2015
The Evolution Of The Oil Weapon / Politics / Crude Oil
In the age of derivatives, swaps, and electronic money transfers, a new form of warfare has emerged: financial warfare.Recently, the US has passed sanctions on countries such as Syria, Venezuela, and North Korea , but the majority of energy related sanctions passed have been targeted at Iran and Russia.
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