Category: Crude Oil
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, November 04, 2014
Lower Crude Oil Prices Carry Geopolitical Consequences / Politics / Crude Oil
By: STRATFOR
Since mid-June, the price of Brent crude oil has fallen by nearly 25 percent -- going from a high of $115 to about $87 a barrel -- and structural factors are causing concern among global oil producers that oil prices will remain near current levels through at least the end of 2015. This concern has caused several investment banks to slash their oil price outlooks for the immediate future. Stratfor believes that oil supplies will stay high as energy production in North America increases and OPEC countries remain hesitant or unable to cut production significantly. Moreover, in the short term, the Chinese economic slowdown and stagnant European economy will limit the potential for growth in oil demand. These factors could make it harder for global oil prices to rebound to their previous levels.
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Total War over the Petrodollar / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Marin_Katusa
The conspiracy theories surrounding the death of Total SA’s chief executive, Christophe de Margerie, started the second the news broke of his death. Under mysterious circumstances in Moscow, his private jet collided with a snowplow just after midnight. De Margerie was the CEO of Total, France’s largest oil company.
He’d just attended a private meeting with Russian Prime Minister Medvedev, at a time when the West’s relationship with Russia is fraught, to say the least.
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Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Crude Oil Price Sinking Or Rebounding / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions.
On Friday, crude oil lost 0.68% as concerns over a global oversupply continued to weigh. Additionally, soft U.S. housing data pushed the commodity below $82 per barrel. Will we see another test of the strength of the psychologically important level of $80?
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Friday, October 24, 2014
Saudi Move to Cut Oil Prices Is Now Russia's Biggest Economic Threat / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
As I discussed recently (Why the Saudis Are Cutting Oil Prices), Saudi Arabia has made headlines by cutting oil prices, not production.
It seems the Saudis are more interested in grabbing market share than in attending to the present state of the market.
That move seems calculated to undercut the effect the United States has on global oil markets, even though that effect is indirect.
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Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Crude Oil Price Hitting Bottom / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Bob Loukas writes: In the past, we’ve discussed at length the structural problems facing Crude. So the pressure the energy markets are under, both from the demand and supply sides, should come as no surprise. This double whammy to the Crude market is not likely to be resolved overnight; demand-supply issues require time to work through a market.
Through hydraulic fracking and a massive influx of investment capital, the US has again become a major oil producer. But it’s the speed with which new supply from the US has come on line that has taken the market by surprise and rocked prices.
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Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Low Crude Oil Prices Hurting U.S. Shale Operations / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Slumping oil prices are putting pressure on U.S. drillers.The number of active rigs drilling for oil and gas fell by their most in two months, according to the latest data from oil services firm Baker Hughes. There were 19 oil rigs that were removed from operation as of Oct. 17, compared to the prior week. There are now 1,590 active oil rigs, the lowest level in six weeks.
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Saturday, October 18, 2014
Crude Oil Price Blues (Read: Dangers) for Some / Currencies / Crude Oil
By: Steve_H_Hanke
As the price of crude oil continues its downward tumble towards $80 per barrel, I am reminded of a similar scenario from near the end of the Cold War in the 1980s. When Saudi Arabia announced in 1985 that protecting oil prices was no longer its main priority, oil production surged and prices fell off a cliff, briefly plunging below $10 per barrel, as I had correctly predicted.
Lower prices delivered a fatal blow to the Soviet economy, which ended up seeing $20 billion per year in oil revenues evaporate. The resulting fiscal shortfalls proved to be a dagger in the heart of the U.S.S.R.
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Saturday, October 18, 2014
Why OPEC Has Declared an Oil War on Russia / Politics / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: As I discussed recently (A Calculated Saudi Move Aimed at America), Saudi Arabia has grabbed the headlines by cutting oil prices, not production.
It seems the Saudis are more interested in grabbing market share than in attending to the present state of the market.
That move seems calculated to undercut the effect the U.S. has on global oil markets, even though that effect is indirect.
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Friday, October 17, 2014
When... Not if... Crude Oil Price Drops Below $70 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
Since mid 2010 the oil industry was getting used to Brent averaging around $110. From then to mid 2014 share prices of Halliburton (HAL) Schlumberger (SLB), Hercules (HERO), Transocean (RIG) etc, went up by average 250%. By way of a benchmark for the collective enthusiasm in the idea of the irreversibility of Peak Oil, MODU (jack-up drilling rigs) utilization and day rates climbed into the champagne-all-round arena. According to IHS, a consultancy, there are 118 new ones being built so as to complement the current worldwide fleet of 550. About 40% of those are in China thanks in part to the 5% you used to be able to put down grace of the beneficence of the Bank of Chairman Mao...which incidentally has the smell of the dry bulk carrier enthusiasm seven years ago, also largely financed by the Bank of Chairman Mao.
Thursday, October 16, 2014
Crude Oil Prices Continue to Define Geopolitics / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: STRATFOR
Editor's Note: Oil prices dropped steeply Oct. 14, with crude oil futures falling 4.6 percent to $81.84 per barrel -- the biggest decrease in more than two years. Brent crude dropped by more than $4 a barrel at one stage in the day, dipping below $85 for the first time since 2010. While these are relatively substantial drops, they are just one part of a continuing trend Stratfor has been tracking over the past few months. Factors behind the slump include weak demand, a surfeit of supply and the fact that many large Middle Eastern producers are reluctant to reduce their output.
Wednesday, October 15, 2014
King Coal Strikes Back at the Obama Administration / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: The latest salvo in the “Coal Wars” comes from the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity (ACCCE), and it’s aimed squarely at the Obama Administration.
Of course, the ACCCE isn’t exactly an impartial observer. In fact, you might say it has one huge dog in this fight.
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Tuesday, October 14, 2014
How To Blow Up OPEC In 3 Easy Steps / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
It’s easily been longer than I care to remember that I first wrote it was only a matter of time before individual OPEC members would throw out the cartel’s agreements on prices and production, and just produce at full force and capacity, and then some. We may have seen that time arrive.
The underlying reason I first talked about it was two-fold. First: the economic crisis, which could lead to one thing only: less global demand. And second: the fast increasing wealth and population numbers in oil-producing nations which, as initially defined by Jeffrey Brown and Sam Foucher in the Export Land Model, has proven to be a much bigger factor in OPEC economies than people realized.
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Saturday, October 11, 2014
Why Overpriced Crude Oil Failed / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
Forget the Secret Deals
US-Saudi petrodollar recycling or the "Secret Deal" between the USA and Saudi Arabia dating from the early 1970s and heavily associated with Richard Nixon, Henry Kissinger, the US Treasury Dept and US Federal Reserve was anything but a secret deal, and public domain information on this system is easily available. Ultra basically, petrodollar recycling worked best with high oil prices. The long slump of oil prices through 1986-2002, was basically engineered, at its beginnings, by Saudi Arabia with full US support to deny revenues to Khomenei's Iran in its 1980-88 war against Saddam Hussein's Iraq, seen by the Sunni-dominated Gulf States as holding back the Islamic revolutionary Shia of Iran. Saudi Arabia certainly did not profit from low oil prices and after the period of 1974-86, it consistently reduced its deposits of "windfall gain" petrodollars in the US Fed Reserve system.
Friday, October 10, 2014
Crude Oil Price War - A Calculated Saudi Move Aimed At America / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: In 280-279 B.C., the Epirian King Pyrrhus defeated the Romans in two consecutive battles. But he suffered such a large number of casualties that his army could no longer carry on the fight.
Ever since then, the term “Pyrrhic victory” has become synonymous with winning at too high a cost.
These days some are beginning to wonder if the Saudis are marching down the same road.
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Friday, October 03, 2014
The Best Way to Play Crude Oil Right Now / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: As I’ve been noting for some time now, making money in the energy sector is no longer pegged to higher crude oil prices.
In today’s environment, picking winning oil stocks is more about where a company drills, how it manages its assets and operations, as well as the broader flow of supply and demand.
In this case, it’s all about selecting the right target – companies that are built to weather the inevitable dips in the price of crude.
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Friday, September 26, 2014
Why the Pundits are Wrong About Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Several pundits attributed yesterday’s spike in oil prices to the recognition that the fight against ISIS in Iraq-Syria will be a long one.
As usual, the 30-second TV wonders missed the boat.
Of course, the ongoing chaos in the Middle East is certainly a factor. To the extent that oil traders begin to calculate its impact into their risk models, there will be an effect.
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Wednesday, September 24, 2014
All Eyes on Kenya: The Next Big Oil Exporter / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Not even the specter of a spillover of Islamic extremism from Somalia can dampen the atmosphere in Kenya, where commercial oil production is expected to begin in 2016 and discovery after discovery has made this the hottest and fastest-paced hydrocarbon scene on the continent.
When it comes to new oil and gas frontiers, today it’s all about Africa. And more specifically, it’s all about the eastern coast, with Kenya the clear darling--not just because it’s outpacing neighboring Uganda by leaps and bounds, but also because despite some political instability hiccups and the threat of militant al-Shabaab, it’s still one of the safest venues in the region.
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Wednesday, September 24, 2014
How Falling Oil Prices Could Trigger an "Unpredictable and Dangerous Mess" / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: The dive in crude oil prices continued yesterday as yet another selloff targeted the energy sector for a particularly big hit.
Of course, this too shall pass.
The crude oil markets are oversold and a rebalancing will bring prices back up a bit over the near term.
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Sunday, September 14, 2014
Two Strikes Against Light Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Donald_W_Dony
Following the August 26, 2014 Market Minute titled "WTIC prices break down", Light crude oil prices has fallen 5.9% since late August.
Abundant supply from the U.S. and the Middle East plus a rising U.S. dollar has sent oil prices down to the first support level at $92.
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Thursday, September 11, 2014
Gold, Crude Oil and U.S Dollar Link Intensifies / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco published a report, which indicated that central bank is growing closer to raise interest rates. As a result, the US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, climbed to a 14-month high. Since then, ongoing expectations that U.S. interest rates will be rise sooner rather than later have been supportive for the U.S. dollar, making crude oil and gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.