Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
British Pound Crashes to New Lows as Economic Crisis Deepens / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The foreign exchange markets are witnessing heavy and sustained selling of sterling which continues following the Bank of England's inflation report and statement on the economy. The British Pound has fallen below £/$1.50 to currently stand at 149.12, and to a new low against the Euro of 119. The fast developing sterling crisis illustrates the systemic failure of the Bank of England and Labour Government to manage both the economy and the credit crisis and marks another marker following last weeks panic interest rate cut of 1.5%, as the government took control of monetary policy back from the Bank of England and effectively ordered the Bank to cut interest rates by 1.5% despite inflation hitting 5.2%. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 13, 2008
UK Unemployment to Soar above 2 Million for Christmas / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest UK unemployment data released today showed unemployment soared by 140,000 in the 3 months to August, up 33,000 on the month and the number officially claiming unemployment benefit rose by 25,600 in October to 970,000. This was followed by the Bank of England's report on inflation and the economy that stated that UK is heading for 2% GDP contraction for 2009 which is significant change to the existing forecasts of growth for 2009. With a three month lag in published data, the actual unemployment rate looks set to pass above 2 million by Christmas to be released in March 2009. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Bank of England Forecasts Deep Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Victoria_Marklew
The Bank of England's Quarterly Inflation Report was released this morning and its outlook for the UK economy was every bit as dismal as feared. The Bank's central projections for GDP growth and inflation are "substantially weaker" than in the August Report, although today's Report also acknowledges that the prospects for both are "unusually uncertain." The central projection is for a pronounced contraction in domestic demand that causes output to fall markedly through the first half of 2009, with the contraction in real GDP reaching around 2.0% on the year by Q2.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
China Gets it Right on Economic Stimulus Package 17 Times U.S. Effort / Economics / Government Intervention
By: John_Browne
The announcement of a massive stimulus package of almost $600 billion shows that China means business not just in reviving, but also in rejuvenating its economy.
As both America and China confront the prospect of a global depression, both countries have chosen to fend off potential unrest with liberal government spending. But the Chinese move is bolder and more likely to succeed.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
The Great Global Deleveraging Cycle Continues / Economics / Business Cycles
By: Mark_OByrne
The great global deleveraging continues. In a world that has become addicted to debt fuelled growth, the idea that readily available credit may no longer be available, has scared many into facing the truth; credit is not free and should never have been priced as such. Over the past few weeks markets have continue to sell off, outlook for production and consumption are all bearish and thus oil continues its volatile ride losing $2 overnight to its current level of $58 a barrel. (Month to date it is down over 40% in USD terms and more than 62% in euro terms). Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Retail Tsunami Wave Hits Gift Cards and Shopping Mall Operator / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Reuters is reporting Weaker gift card demand to hit post-holiday sales .
The once-hot holiday gift card may be losing some of its luster, dealing a setback to struggling U.S. retailers who count on the cards to drive consumers into stores for a post-Christmas shopping spree. As shoppers have witnessed a slew of retail bankruptcies this year, they are showing some reluctance toward buying the cards as gifts for friends and family.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 10, 2008
U.S. Economic Pain Precedes Greatest Investment Opportunity of a Generation / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: If there's a proverb that captures the outlook for the U.S. economy in the New Year, it's the one that says: “It's always darkest before the dawn.”
Regardless of any formal announcement of whether or not the United States drops into an actual recession, the ongoing credit crisis guarantees a contraction of the American economy by virtually every measure we know. That period of darkness will be marked by a dramatic slowdown in economic activity, as well as by rising unemployment, additional declines in U.S. stock prices, and constant volatility. It could last as long as 12-18 months.
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Monday, November 10, 2008
Why Washington Cannot Prevent Economic Depression / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: Fear of depression is sweeping the nation. Millions of Americans are consumed with anxiety, abandoning their old shop-till-they-drop habits, slashing their spending, trying desperately to pinch pennies for the coming hard times.
Thousands of bankers are snapping shut their coffers, tightening their lending standards, hunkering down in anticipation of a massive economic downturn.
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Monday, November 10, 2008
Peter Schiff and China's Economy Hard Landing / Economics / China Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
We will take a look at Schiff from two perspectives shortly. First let's note the massive influx of workers into Chinese cities is now in reverse as Chinese job losses prompt exodus .
Tens of thousands of migrant workers are leaving the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou after losing their jobs, railway officials say. The increase to 130,000 passengers leaving the city's main station daily is being blamed on the credit crunch.
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Sunday, November 09, 2008
Three Trends Driving U.S. Toward Economic and Dollar Collapse / Economics / US Debt
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
TREND #1: Falling Tax revenues . Every month of job losses and every company that fails results in more lost tax revenue. In 2007, the government collected $2.568 trillion from taxpayers. It will be less this year and next. If the revenue loss follows the pattern set during the great depression, it will look like this:
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Sunday, November 09, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For U.S. Financial Markets (Nov 10-14) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week ahead in financial markets will see a modest quantity of data that will hit the tapes largely on Thursday and Friday. The major market moving events will be the Friday release of the October advance retail sales data and the Thursday release of the US Trade Balance, Jobless Claims and the US Budget Statement. On Friday in Frankfurt Germany, Fed Chair Bernanke and ECB President Trichet will lead a cast of global central banking all-stars that will address monetary policy within the current global financial crisis. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 08, 2008
What the Obama Presidency Means for the U.S. Economy 2009 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: David_Urban
The election of Barack Obama to the office of President of the United States on November 4, 2008 was historic for many reasons. Investors, however, are worried for a number of reasons. Democrats have been known as the tax and spend party, although the Clinton administration went a long way to begin changing investors' psychology towards the party. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 08, 2008
The Impact of Deleveraging on Economic Growth / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: John_Mauldin
- The Problems of Deleveraging
- 1.2 Million Jobs and Counting
- Be Careful of Geeks Bearing Recovery Data
- Back to 1982
In general, we consider it a good thing to save money and to "owe no man anything save love." But what happens when a debt-happy society wakes up and decides that saving is a good thing for everybody? What happens when banks and hedge funds decide (or are forced) to reduce their debt? What happens when businesses of all sizes find it harder to get loans to operate?
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 08, 2008
Obama Could Avoid Depression by Rebuilding America's Crumbling Infrastructure / Economics / US Economy
By: Jennifer_Barry
On a daily basis, we drive on paved roads over bridges, take a hot shower, turn the lights on and off, and take out the trash. Most of us take these experiences for granted, expecting that our needs will be satisfied in a safe and convenient way. The universal availability of these services differentiates a modern country from a developing nation. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 08, 2008
United States in Recession End of the Debate / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Andy_Sutton
The happy rhetoric of earlier this year has faded. The Treasury Secretary and Fed Chairman are no longer extolling America's strong economic fundamentals. The media is no longer talking about a soft landing and I haven't heard the term ‘Goldilocks' mentioned in what feels like a dog's age. While our leaders have referred to the ‘challenges' that we face and the very real possibility of a ‘downturn', it is very obviously out of vogue to call this reality what it is – a recession. However, history has left us with some pretty good indicators that may be used to either confirm or deny a recession and along with it give us one of the many answers to what is bothering Wall Street these days. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 07, 2008
Jobs Contract 10th Straight Month; Unemployment Soars To 6.5% / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Before taking a look at the monthly jobs data, let's take a look at weekly claims. The US Department of Labor is reporting Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims continue to rise. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 07, 2008
Non-Farm Payrolls Collapse in October as U.S. Unemployment Rate Soars / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The October estimate of non-farm payrolls saw firms reduce payrolls by -240K for the month and the rate of unemployment jump sharply to 6.5%. Revisions made by Labor Department subtract an additional -179K over the past two months. The decline in October's payroll tally has reduced employment by 1.2mln during the first 10 months of 2008, with over half of that total occurring over the past 90 days. The household survey saw a decline of -297K, which is above its three-month average of -287K. The number of unemployed individuals increased by 603K to 10.1mln in October.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 06, 2008
The Economic Deflation Debate: Why this time is different / Economics / Deflation
By: John_Lee
It's fascinating to study and observe the distribution of wealth. History has shown great nations and companies that rose to the top from nothing and subsequently fell to nothing.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Global Economic Recession, Country by Country / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
There was an interesting post on the Big Picture Blog last week by guest writer Michael Panzner. The post is called A World of Faltering Growth . Here is the key chart. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
UK Economic Slump Accelerates towards Recession / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK economy battered and bruised by the fallout from the financial crisis as bankrupt banks sought a huge £500 billion bailout form the UK tax payer, was further hit today by the continuing contraction of Britain's industrial base as UK factory production continued to fall by 0.8% for a seven straight month, which acts as further confirmation of an imminent deep recession. The slump in sterling of 25% has been voiced as a boost to Britain's export sector, however clearly this is not happening as the already diminished industrial sector continues to shrink and therefore even if the crash in sterling does boost exports, the impact on the overall economy is expected to be muted as the industrial export sector has shrunk to less than 4% of the economy, whilst the huge financial services sector in terms of % of GDP continues to implode.Read full article... Read full article...