Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Peter Schiff and China's Economy Hard Landing / Economics / China Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
We will take a look at Schiff from two perspectives shortly. First let's note the massive influx of workers into Chinese cities is now in reverse as Chinese job losses prompt exodus .
Tens of thousands of migrant workers are leaving the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou after losing their jobs, railway officials say. The increase to 130,000 passengers leaving the city's main station daily is being blamed on the credit crunch.
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Sunday, November 09, 2008
Three Trends Driving U.S. Toward Economic and Dollar Collapse / Economics / US Debt
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
TREND #1: Falling Tax revenues . Every month of job losses and every company that fails results in more lost tax revenue. In 2007, the government collected $2.568 trillion from taxpayers. It will be less this year and next. If the revenue loss follows the pattern set during the great depression, it will look like this:
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Sunday, November 09, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For U.S. Financial Markets (Nov 10-14) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week ahead in financial markets will see a modest quantity of data that will hit the tapes largely on Thursday and Friday. The major market moving events will be the Friday release of the October advance retail sales data and the Thursday release of the US Trade Balance, Jobless Claims and the US Budget Statement. On Friday in Frankfurt Germany, Fed Chair Bernanke and ECB President Trichet will lead a cast of global central banking all-stars that will address monetary policy within the current global financial crisis. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 08, 2008
What the Obama Presidency Means for the U.S. Economy 2009 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: David_Urban
The election of Barack Obama to the office of President of the United States on November 4, 2008 was historic for many reasons. Investors, however, are worried for a number of reasons. Democrats have been known as the tax and spend party, although the Clinton administration went a long way to begin changing investors' psychology towards the party. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 08, 2008
The Impact of Deleveraging on Economic Growth / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: John_Mauldin
The Problems of Deleveraging - 1.2 Million Jobs and Counting
- Be Careful of Geeks Bearing Recovery Data
- Back to 1982
In general, we consider it a good thing to save money and to "owe no man anything save love." But what happens when a debt-happy society wakes up and decides that saving is a good thing for everybody? What happens when banks and hedge funds decide (or are forced) to reduce their debt? What happens when businesses of all sizes find it harder to get loans to operate?
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Saturday, November 08, 2008
Obama Could Avoid Depression by Rebuilding America's Crumbling Infrastructure / Economics / US Economy
By: Jennifer_Barry
On a daily basis, we drive on paved roads over bridges, take a hot shower, turn the lights on and off, and take out the trash. Most of us take these experiences for granted, expecting that our needs will be satisfied in a safe and convenient way. The universal availability of these services differentiates a modern country from a developing nation. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 08, 2008
United States in Recession End of the Debate / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Andy_Sutton
The happy rhetoric of earlier this year has faded. The Treasury Secretary and Fed Chairman are no longer extolling America's strong economic fundamentals. The media is no longer talking about a soft landing and I haven't heard the term ‘Goldilocks' mentioned in what feels like a dog's age. While our leaders have referred to the ‘challenges' that we face and the very real possibility of a ‘downturn', it is very obviously out of vogue to call this reality what it is – a recession. However, history has left us with some pretty good indicators that may be used to either confirm or deny a recession and along with it give us one of the many answers to what is bothering Wall Street these days. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 07, 2008
Jobs Contract 10th Straight Month; Unemployment Soars To 6.5% / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Before taking a look at the monthly jobs data, let's take a look at weekly claims. The US Department of Labor is reporting Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims continue to rise. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 07, 2008
Non-Farm Payrolls Collapse in October as U.S. Unemployment Rate Soars / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The October estimate of non-farm payrolls saw firms reduce payrolls by -240K for the month and the rate of unemployment jump sharply to 6.5%. Revisions made by Labor Department subtract an additional -179K over the past two months. The decline in October's payroll tally has reduced employment by 1.2mln during the first 10 months of 2008, with over half of that total occurring over the past 90 days. The household survey saw a decline of -297K, which is above its three-month average of -287K. The number of unemployed individuals increased by 603K to 10.1mln in October.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 06, 2008
The Economic Deflation Debate: Why this time is different / Economics / Deflation
By: John_Lee
It's fascinating to study and observe the distribution of wealth. History has shown great nations and companies that rose to the top from nothing and subsequently fell to nothing.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Global Economic Recession, Country by Country / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
There was an interesting post on the Big Picture Blog last week by guest writer Michael Panzner. The post is called A World of Faltering Growth . Here is the key chart. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
UK Economic Slump Accelerates towards Recession / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK economy battered and bruised by the fallout from the financial crisis as bankrupt banks sought a huge £500 billion bailout form the UK tax payer, was further hit today by the continuing contraction of Britain's industrial base as UK factory production continued to fall by 0.8% for a seven straight month, which acts as further confirmation of an imminent deep recession. The slump in sterling of 25% has been voiced as a boost to Britain's export sector, however clearly this is not happening as the already diminished industrial sector continues to shrink and therefore even if the crash in sterling does boost exports, the impact on the overall economy is expected to be muted as the industrial export sector has shrunk to less than 4% of the economy, whilst the huge financial services sector in terms of % of GDP continues to implode.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Nearing Impact: A U.S. Debt Crash Course / Economics / US Debt
By: David_Haas
Over the past decade or so, I have occasionally seen an article - or sometimes a chart - referencing the dollar amount of marginal or “extra” U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that is generated by adding each new dollar of government debt . In other words, with their unique brand of wisdom, the federal government tries to “buy growth with debt”. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 03, 2008
Fed's Tough Balancing Act Between Inflation and Deflation / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Captain_Hook
Save me – I'm sure that's exactly the sentiment many hedge fund managers share today. Why would this be? Answer: Because as Doug Noland aptly puts it in his regular column this week, The Arb Game Is Over , meaning that on a macro-basis the larger speculation / credit cycles have turned lower; and, they will continue to fall for some time, taking many an unaware hedge fund manager with them. In fact, and to be more blunt about it, the cash strapped hedge fund industry has likely also topped with the larger credit cycle, where increasing redemptions necessitate margin contraction on an accelerating basis. In this regard it should be noted aggregate margin debt levels remain high, meaning no matter what policy measures are taken to stem the tide, authorities are just pushing on a string. Of course this is not a problem in my estimation, as you will read further below. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 03, 2008
United States About to be Hit by Hyper-Inflationary Hurricane! / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Prolonged inflation (and, especially hyperinflation) cannot continue without increases in the monetary base..."
"A COUNTRY'S LONG-RUN INFLATION is caused primarily, or perhaps exclusively, by increases in its own monetary base," wrote Richard G.Anderson – a vice-president and senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis – in a 2006 paper.
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Monday, November 03, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For U.S. Financial Markets (Nov 3-7) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The first week of November will see another heavy week of data releases on the calendar that will feature the first significant look at the data from the real economy in October, when the credit markets seized up. The primary market-moving event will be the Friday publication of the October estimate of non-farm payrolls that we expect to contract by -225K. The week will kick off with the release of the October ISM survey of manufacturing conditions nationwide, total vehicle sales and the construction spending report for September. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 03, 2008
United States Heading for Economic Depression and Dollar Collapse / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
The US headed for a depression AND a currency collapse. Americans will see their wealth wiped out as stocks and home values plunge, their cost of living soar as food and oil prices spike up, and their taxes increase as the government struggles to fund itself. To understand where the US is heading, we need to step back and take a look at the deep problems afflicting the US economy: Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 02, 2008
Current Economic Crisis Worse than the Great Depression / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Dr_Krassimir_Petrov
The mainstream media and Wall Street have reached the consensus that the current credit crisis is the worst since the post-war period. George Soros' statement that ”the world faces the worst finance crisis since WWII” epitomizes the collective wisdom. The crisis is currently the ultimate scapegoat for all the economic evils that currently plague the global financial system and the global economy – from collapsing stock markets of the world to food shortages in third world counties. We are repeatedly assured that the ultimate fault lies with the Credit Crisis itself; if there were no Credit Crisis, all of these terrible things would never have happened in the economy and the financial markets. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 02, 2008
Time to Bunker Down as the Global Debt Mountain Implodes / Economics / Global Financial System
By: Dr_William_R_Swagell
Global Panic Spreads - The largest debt bubble in the history of mankind is on the verge of deflating and collapsing as world leaders and central bankers fly around the globe to one crisis meeting after another. No sooner is one panic quelled or some hasty band-aid fix slapped into place to stop a financial collapse than another breaks out somewhere else. The bad news just keeps on coming; Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 01, 2008
The End of Economic Prosperity / Economics / Global Economy
By: Stephen_Lendman
From too much of a good thing. From the 1980s and 1990s excesses. From the longest ever US bull market. Heavily manipulated to keep it levitating. From August 1982 to January 2000. An illusory reprieve from October 2002 to October 2007. Fluctuations aside, all lost in the past 12 months. The wages of sin are now due, and payment is being painfully extracted. From all nations globally. Affecting ordinary people the most who had nothing to do with creating booms and busts. They got little on the upside but are paying dearly for the down. Read full article... Read full article...