Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, November 01, 2008
Chinese Manufacturing Contracts as the Tail Fails to Wag the Dog / Economics / China Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
For the third month in four, China's manufacturing is in contraction. July and August were in contraction as discussed in China's Manufacturing Contracts for Second Month . Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 01, 2008
President Obama to Inherit Bush Recession and Record Deficits / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
Electing the Janitor-in-Chief- Can't Borrow on Your Home? Whip out the Credit Card
- Deficits as High as an Elephant's Eye
- Can You Count to 41?
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Economic Deflation in Gold Terms and the U.S. Dollar Collapse / Economics / Deflation
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
We have finally gotten to the point where most investors and the media understand the severity of the credit crisis and are expecting deflation. It is a good start, but unfortunately, it still isn't quite right. Deflation will be in terms of gold, like in 1929
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Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Credit Crisis Bailouts Continue; China Takes Aggressive Action on Economy / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_and_Markets
Tony Sagami writes: Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke will go down in history as two of the most incompetent Federal Reserve chairmen our country has ever had. Like Mr. Magoo, they blindly drove the stock market and then the real estate market into some of the biggest bubbles our world has ever seen. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
U.S. Mortgage Bonds Crash to New Low / Economics / Subprime Mortgage Risks
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bloomberg is reporting Non-Agency Mortgage Bonds Fall Amid Selling Concern . Subprime, Alt-A and prime-jumbo mortgage securities reached or approached record lows this month as forced asset sales contributed to the decline in values.
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Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Deteriorating Economic Outlook for Germany and Euro-zone / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
Last week's PMI surveys for the Euro-zone and for its various countries warned that the outlook for Q4 is deteriorating sharply. To date, the strongest of the major Euro-zone economies clearly has been Germany, which may actually escape a technical recession if consumer demand keeps Q3 real GDP growth in positive territory. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 27, 2008
Gordon Brown Spending His Way out of Economic Contraction into Stagflation / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Friday's announcement of surprisingly high 0.5% GDP contraction well above the forecasts of 0.2% and the Market Oracle forecast of 0.3%, confirmed that the UK economy is heading for a deep recession which looks set to beat the 1990's recession that saw a 2.5% contraction in GDP from peak to trough.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 27, 2008
Economists are Still Getting it Wrong on the Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Gerard_Jackson
The recession is deepening and our economic commentariat still cannot get it right. Access Economics economist Chris Richardson is a classic. He figures governments and central banks "just don't have the dollars" to turn things around. The one thing governments and central banks are never short of is money. They can create as much money as they like. Only the threat of an outbreak of massive inflation stops them. In any event, the problem is not one of insufficient funds.
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Monday, October 27, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For U.S. Financial Markets (Oct 27-31) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
After the heaviest week of Fed talk and macro data releases in recent memory, the calendar will see a very light week of rhetoric and economic releases. Monday, will see the publication of the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators, Thursday the weekly jobless claims data and the week will conclude with the publication of the September existing home sales. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 27, 2008
Economic Data and Corporate Earnings Signaling Global Recession? / Economics / Corporate Earnings
By: Money_Morning
William Patalon III writes: It's beginning to sound like a broken record. In a nutshell, we already know that the economic data should be weak. We already know that the earnings reports should be disappointing. And because we already know all this, the information should be built into stock prices. The earnings releases should be soft. That much should already be known – and built into the markets.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 27, 2008
United States Heading for Nasty Economic Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Bill King (The King Report): Adjusted monetary base surging “The following chart of the Adjusted Monetary Base, as calculated by the St. Louis Fed, needs no commentary. But we must note that it is growing at a 341% annualized rate (of 4-week average). This is beyond 3rd world pumping! Yesterday in testimony before Congress about the financial crisis, Easy Al reluctantly gave a qualified confession about his role in the mess when he said he was ‘partially' wrong on derivative regulation. But Easy Al tried to direct blame at Wall Street.”
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Sunday, October 26, 2008
Contraction of the Whole Financial and Economic System / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Whitney
"The great inter-war slumps were not acts of God or of blind forces. They were the sure and certain result of the concentration of too much economic power in the hands of too few men (who) felt no responsibility to the nation." From the 1945 UK Labour manifesto Let Us Face The Future
There are signs that the credit crunch is easing. Interbank lending in dollars has fallen for a ninth straight day. The various indicators of stress in the market--Libor, the TED spread, and the Libor-OIS spread--are all gradually returning to normal, but the damage to the broader economy has been substantial.
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Friday, October 24, 2008
Financial Crisis Turning Into an Economic Crisis / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Christopher_Laird
With all of the chaos in financial markets, and also commodities, how are the USD and the Euro affected and also the precious metals?
Well, first of all, we need the proper context of this world market situation. We are in the middle of a super world crash. These take a year to get into full swing. They develop over time. Minding that, realize that we may not see the worst for another year for the world stock markets. We are in the midst of a crash.
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Friday, October 24, 2008
Upping the Economic Stimulus Dosage / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
Insanity is often defined as repeating the same action while expecting a different result. Recent Congressional activity to push through this year's second economic “stimulus” package certainly indicates that many of our political leaders may have special needs. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 24, 2008
U.S. Unfunded Debt Liabilities- The Greatest Deficit of All / Economics / US Debt
By: Doug_Wakefield
The following is an interview transcript from institutional money manager Tom Cammack conducted by Doug Wakefield, President of Best Minds Inc., on October 6th , 2008 . The opinions shared in this interview may or may not be the same as those of Best Minds Inc .
“We must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our election between economy [thrift] and liberty or profusion [abundance] and servitude .
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Friday, October 24, 2008
Mesa City Arizona Facing Huge Budget Crisis / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
AZCentral is reporting Mesa facing huge budget crisis .Mesa is bracing for what could be the worst budget crisis in city history.
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Friday, October 24, 2008
FTSE Crash as UK Economy Contracts by GDP 0.5% / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The FTSE 100 Index crashed on the worse than expected UK Q3 GDP data that came in at minus 0.5%, the consensus forecast was for 0.2% and the Market Oracle forecast was for a 0.3% contraction of Gross Domestic Product.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 24, 2008
U.S. Jobs Losses Mount As Recession Deepens / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Regardless of how much money Paulson and Bernanke waste on bailouts, this economy simply is not going to recover with the unemployment picture looking as bleak as it does. Let's start off with a look at initial claims then some announcements from today about layoffs. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 23, 2008
UK Economic Crash Follows Housing, Stocks and Sterling Over the Cliff / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Friday's long awaited GDP figures are expected to show an estimated GDP contraction of 0.3% for the quarter ending 30th Sept 2008. This follows the official data of zero growth for the 2nd quarter and will officially bring to an end Gordon Brown's near repetitive day in day out mantra chanted at the despatch box in his role as the chancellor of the exchequer for 9 years of having ended the boom and bust cycle. In actual fact all Gordon Brown had succeeded in delivering was a greater boom to be followed by an even more devastating bust. The key point to watch for on Friday is will a revision lower of quarter 2 GDP growth push the UK into a technical recession on the basis of 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Using Leading Economic Indicators to Forecast Economic Recessions / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
On a year-over-year basis, the quarterly average of the index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) began contracting in the first quarter of 2007. With the exception of the third quarter of 2007, the quarterly average of the LEI has continued to contract. We alerted our readers that multiple consecutive quarters of year-over-year contractions in the LEI usually were the harbinger of recessions. We had ignored the history of the LEI's recession-predictive powers in the past and were determined not to repeat that mistake. Read full article... Read full article...