Analysis Topic: Housing Market Price trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, December 10, 2010
U.S. House Prices Continue to Fall, Down Over 80% in Gold and Silver / Housing-Market / US Housing
Median prices declined 3% from 11/09.
The peak was 63 - 64 months ago. The historical peak to trough real estate prices is 46+ months. 01/10 was the low for the 4.5 yr. decline that began in the summer of 2005. It really is “different this time”.
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Thursday, December 09, 2010
U.S. Mortgage Rates Rise toward 5 per cent / Housing-Market / US Housing
National average mortgage rates are on the rise in the United States as jobless claims are improving and the economy appears to be improving.
The national average 30-year fixed rate Thursday (December 9) morning is 4.91 per cent according to Bankrate.com, compared with an average mortgage rate of 4.66 per cent on Thursday last week.
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Tuesday, December 07, 2010
U.S. Housing Market Lags Economic Recovery, Robust Growth in Hiring Key to Revival / Housing-Market / US Housing
The current recession/recovery phase has many records for history books. Here is another one. In the post-war period, the housing market nearly always led the economic recovery. Housing market troughs, as measured by the trough of real residential investment expenditures, occurred prior to the onset of the overall economic recovery. Chart 1 plots real private residential investment expenditures and the shaded regions denote recessions as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 03, 2010
U.S. Housing Market Update, Affordability Index, Pending Home Sales Index / Housing-Market / US Housing
Home prices and mortgage rates are at historical lows, which makes homes most affordable. In fact, the Housing Affordability Index of the National Association of Realtors scaled a record high mark in October - 184.2 (see Chart 1). Historically, readings above 120 have been viewed as a seller's market. The chain of economic events of the past three years has modified this perception and the housing market is currently a buyer's market. However, buyers do not have the wherewithal to take advantage of the sweet spot in the housing market with affordable homes and low mortgage rates.
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Thursday, December 02, 2010
Strength in Residential Construction Spending is Entirely from Improvements / Housing-Market / US Housing
Residential construction outlays increased 2.5% in October after a 0.6% gain in September. The headline number is impressive and the increase in residential construction outlays should add to GDP growth in the fourth quarter. However, it should be noted that the entire gain of these outlays in October was from home improvements and not from new residential construction (see Chart 3).
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Wednesday, December 01, 2010
The Rise and Fall of the U.S. Home Ownership Myth / Housing-Market / US Housing
The idea that "a man's house is his castle" is attributed to American Revolutionary James Otis from 1761, and his idea was that government should never be permitted to breach its walls. It is a good thought, in context, one that sums up a dogged attachment to the right of private property.
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Wednesday, December 01, 2010
U.S. House Prices, Tip of Iceberg of Housing Market Woes / Housing-Market / US Housing
The seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller Price Index fell 0.8% in September after a 0.5% drop in August. In the third quarter, house prices, as measured by the Case-Shiller Price Index have dropped 3.4% after a 2.6% gain in the prior quarter. From a year ago, this price index declined 1.5%. The house price picture is disappointing and worrisome. The brief gain in house prices in the second quarter reflects the impact of the first-time home buyer program much like the situation in 2009 when the program was put in place (see Chart 1).
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Monday, November 29, 2010
UK Mortgages Falling Demand Despite Falling Interest Rates and More Products / Housing-Market / Mortgages
Over the last year the number of mortgages available to borrowers has grown significantly, with borrowers who have a 20% deposit or less seeing the biggest improvements.
At the same time, rates continue to fall, with the average two, three and five year fixed rates all standing at the lowest level seen since Moneyfacts records began in 1988.
Thursday, November 25, 2010
U.S. New Home Sales Continue to Linger Around Historical Low / Housing-Market / US Housing
Sales of new single-family homes fell 8.1% to an annual rate of 283,000 in October after an upwardly revised gain of 12.0% in September (previously estimated as a 6.6% increase). Sales of new single-family homes have hovered around the historical low of 275,000, recorded in August, for the last six months.
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Wednesday, November 24, 2010
U.S. Sales of Existing Homes Fell in October, Inventories Remain a Challenge / Housing-Market / US Housing
Sales of all existing homes fell 2.2% in October, after posting gains in August and September, to an annual rate of 4.43 million. Purchases of existing single-family homes dropped 2.0% to annual rate of 3.89 million in October, putting the year-to-year decline at 28%, the largest drop for the current downturn. On a regional basis, sales of existing homes fell in all regions of the nation in October.
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Sunday, November 21, 2010
Australia's Housing Bubble Illustrates All Governments Intervening to Delay Inevitable Bust / Housing-Market / Austrailia
The past three years have been dominated by government intervention …
The U.S. propped up the banks with TARP money, and then gave banks ultra-easy money terms to recapitalize. And to unfreeze the global credit markets, the U.S. provided unlimited dollar swap lines with global central banks.
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Thursday, November 18, 2010
U.S. Housing Market Continues to Rot, No Rebound in 2011 / Housing-Market / US Housing
Larry D. Spears writes: The year of 2010 saw very little improvement in the housing sector, and that's not likely to change in 2011.
The industry's weaknesses - high unemployment, tight credit, ineffectual government programs, soaring inventories, plunging prices, and so on - are simply too gaping to be resolved by next year.
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Thursday, November 18, 2010
U.S. Housing Market Starts Were Unimpressive in October / Housing-Market / US Housing
Housing starts fell 11.7% to an annual rate of 519,000, reflecting a 43.5% drop in starts of multi-family units and a 1.1% drop in single-family units to an annual rate of 431,000. Single-family starts have essentially held nearly steady for four straight months (see chart 3). The decline in multi-family starts was the culprit behind the weak headline reading. Multi-family starts are highly volatile and do not speak for the underlying trend of homebuilding activity.
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Tuesday, November 16, 2010
UK House Prices 2011 and Beyond / Housing-Market / UK Housing
In 2007 we saw the images of Northern Rock customers queuing on the streets to withdraw their funds. It seemed that finally the exuberance in the housing market was going to be deflated. Three years on and this has not happened to any really significant extent. Up until recently, I have been waiting for the monthly data from various sources to show an accelerating rate of falls. In reality, the market has traded sideways at a level just below the all time peak. When markets do not do what you expect them to you eventually have to ask why.
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Wednesday, November 10, 2010
UK House Prices Overvalued, So Where's the Crash? / Housing-Market / UK Housing
It is fairly unanimous that houses in the UK are over-priced - 30% according to The Economist. I have been a long term bear for a decade as by every measure such as income, yield etc they seemed well due for a much greater correction than has occurred.
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Saturday, November 06, 2010
ForeClosureGate and The Economic Crisis, Spiralling Gold and Silver Prices / Housing-Market / US Housing
Foreclosuregate will soon again dominate the financial news along with the three class action lawsuits – one is a RICO suit, entered against JPMorgan Chase and HSBC for rigging the silver markets.
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Friday, November 05, 2010
UK House Prices Downtrend Continues in October, Market Waits for Further QE / Housing-Market / UK Housing
- House prices fell by 0.7% in October
- Three month rate of decline accelerates to 1.5%
- Further quantitative easing could boost the housing market
Friday, October 29, 2010
U.S. Mortgagegate Scandal Puts Taxpayers into the Title-Insurance Business / Housing-Market / US Housing
Shah Gilani writes: U.S. taxpayers already own pieces of such problem-plagued companies as General Motors Corp., Chrysler LLC, American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG), Fannie Mae (OTC: FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC). Now the increasingly problematic "Mortgagegate" saga could land American taxpayers in the trouble-ridden title-insurance business.
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Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Case-Shiller U.S. Home Price Index Dips in August as Jobs Outlook Remains Poor / Housing-Market / US Housing
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index increased to 50.2 in October from 48.6 in the prior month. The Present Situation Index rose to 23.9 from 23.3 in September and Expectations Index moved up to 67.8 from 65.5 in September.
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Tuesday, October 26, 2010
How Predatory Lenders and Wall Street Fleeced America and Spwaned Global Financial Crisis / Housing-Market / Credit Crisis 2008
I am in New York this afternoon attending and speaking at the Bank Credit Analyst Conference. I have to say that the panel on emerging markets gave me some real food for thought and an idea or two for a future e-letter. I have been a fan of emerging markets in general (with some exceptions) for some time but I should become even more so I think.
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