Category: Stocks Bear Market
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Tuesday, March 03, 2009
Collective Thoughts Of Investors Point To More Stock Market Losses / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
"The current state of investors’ collective fear means the odds remain against those who own stocks and in favor of those who short stocks or remain defensive."Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 03, 2009
Stock Market Train Wreck Continues / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
With the impenetrable global financial market gloom showing no signs of abating, stocks took another pounding yesterday. Financials were crushed again and that will grab all the headlines today. Tabloid focus remains on the cosmic black hole that is AIG(reed) and their latest visit to the ATM (American Taxpayers Money), the prospects of Citibank ($1.20) becoming a sub $1 stock and the pared payouts at GE.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 02, 2009
Terminal Stock Market Slipping Away from Investors / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The nearer your destination, the more you slip slide away. Another week of weakness in the markets, punctuated by a one day rally (just to keep everyone honest) has put many investors in a rather foul mood. Just when the markets looked as though they had put in a bottom back in November, here we are again at critical point – looking like we will slip slide away toward much lower levels. The talk of the past week centered on the nationalization of the banks, just as the taxpayers took a 36% position in Citigroup, on top of their already dominate position in AIG, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 01, 2009
Super Over Sold Stock Market That Still Refuses to Rally / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Battle-weary investors remained skeptical of a banking quick fix and endured more grim economic fodder during the past week, causing US stocks to hit their lowest level since 1997. After the worst January (-8.8%) on record, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed February (-11.7%) in the third worst position, after 1933 (-15.6%) and 1920 (-12.5%).Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 01, 2009
Stock Market Downward Spiral Continues / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
So long, November lows. Last week, the news media, always looking for a headline, were quick to point out the Dow Theory Sell Signal that occurred last week. Of course, there were plenty of analysts that came out of the woodwork to proclaim the Dow Jones Industrial and Transportation Averages as irrelevant indexes, and therefore Dow Theory had no great impact on the market. Since then, the DJIA now sits 7 percent below its November low after only a week and the S&P 500 is now below its November low. The Nasdaq is not far behind. It looks like the Dow Theorists may be right. Sadly, there are not many signs pointing to an improving market.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Oversold Stocks Entering Seasonally Strong Time Period / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The good news is: The market is deeply oversold as we enter a brief, but strong seasonal period.
Short Term - Most of the major indices had been down for 6 consecutive days through last Monday's low. Tuesday's rally was followed by 3 consecutive down days as of Friday's low. By virtually all breadth measures, the downside has been exhausted.
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Saturday, February 28, 2009
Stock Market Twelve-Year Weekly Breakdown....Close Below 741 / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
We have spent time below 775, but never did we close below 775 on a Friday, meaning the weekly charts were able to defend that area from 12 years back. Today it became official as we closed dynamically below this level, leaving no doubt as to the markets intentions. Citigroup (C) was basically nationalized today and Bank Of America (BAC) isn't far behind. Behind that train is Wells Fargo (WFC). On top of that we saw General Electric (GE) cut their dividend to 10 cents from 33 cents quarterly. Not a bad day's worth of action. Bad news from just about every direction.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Dow Jones Stock Market Forecast 2009 - Update1 / News_Letter / Stocks Bear Market
February 25th , 2009 Issue #15 Vol. 3This analysis seeks to update the forecast of 20th January 2009 for the Dow Jones stocks index in the light of subsequent volatile price action.
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Thursday, February 26, 2009
Financial Markets Analysis: Stocks Bear Market and Government Intervention / News_Letter / Stocks Bear Market
February 15th , 2009 Issue #12 Vol. 3The weeks stock market trend was in one word WEAK, the preceding weeks strong close FAILED to have any follow through, the stock market FAILED to break above 8,400 let alone make it to resistance at 8,600, stocks turned lower to target the lower end of the trading range of between 8,400 and 7,800, including a BEARISH break below support, which triggered the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) into action to support the stock market and bring the selling to a halt, for the time being at least.
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Thursday, February 26, 2009
Financial Markets Analysis: Stocks Bounce, Where Next? / News_Letter / Stocks Bear Market
February 8th , 2009 Issue #9 Vol. 3Stock Markets continued their strong rally on Friday from early week lows that had threatened to break below the recent tight trading range and target fresh bear market lows.
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Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Stock Market Fundamentals, Valuations and Technicals Say Investors Remain Patient / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Tuesday's Big Gains Lacked Upside Volume: Trends can help us understand the collective perceptions of investors, which ultimately drive asset prices (see charts below).
Fundamental Changes Not Behind Tuesday's Rally: What appeared to have sparked yesterday's rally?
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Stocks Bear Market Uncanny Parallels to 1929 Crash / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The stock market crash of 2008 played out like 1929 almost to the day. In fact the pattern was so uncannily close, that I became convinced the post-crash rebound would do the same and we would see a similar spring bounce.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Stocks Bear Market Deflationary Outlook / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
I had a simple thought the other day. It has been over ten years now since I have been investing and trading in the stock market and the stock market right now is so much different than it was ten years ago, yet no one seems to realize it. Everyone wants stock tips and is trying to guess the bottom.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Dow Jones Stock Market Index Forecast 2009 - Update1 / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
This analysis seeks to update the forecast of 20th January 2009 for the Dow Jones stocks index in the light of subsequent volatile price action.
The 2009 forecast is ( Dow Jones Forecast 2009 - 20th Jan 2009) - In Summary , I do not know at precisely what price level the Dow will make a low during 2009, my best estimate at this time is 6,600, but I am expecting that it will mark the start of a multi-year bull market that will eventually make 2008-2009's price action appear as a mere minor blip, much as the 1987 crash appears on today's price charts.
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Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Stocks Plunge to 11 year Lows Replicating 1930's Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
So, back to the future, doing the time warp again, as the current market bear took us back to spring 1997 levels yesterday. Worryingly it was the NASDAQ 's big tech names (Apple –4.66%, Intel –5.48%, Microsoft –4.39%) and raw stocks that showed the downside leadership while Alcoa (-7.63%) was the big drag on the Dow . Whispers of more financial follies at the black hole that is AIG(reed) who want another bailout of the bailout of the bailout certainly didn't help either. I'd watch the whole insurance sector on the back of this. Resistance seems futile. By the way, 1997 was the year that the Nobel Prize for Economics is won by Long Term Capital Management stars Robert Merton and Myron Scholes!Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 23, 2009
Stock Market Bears Continue To Feast On Bulls / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Monday's market action was not much of a surprise. The DJIA has already closed below the November low last week. While the S&P 500 bounced off its low on Friday, it did not seem like the impetus to start looking for stocks to buy. The one positive for the S&P 500 was that the intraday November low was not breached. That fact does not instill me with a great sense of confidence.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 23, 2009
Stocks Bear Market Rally About to Begin / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend -
Down! The very-long-term cycles have taken over and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until 2012-2014. This would imply that much lower prices lie ahead.
SPX: Intermediate trend - A short-term rally is about to begin, but it will probably take a little longer for the start of one of intermediate trend. Technical signs are becoming favorable in diverse areas of the market.
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Sunday, February 22, 2009
Dow Theory Points to Further Stocks Bear Market Lows / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Is This March 2003? Dow Theory Says NO - Of late I have heard the argument made that the November 2008 to February 2009 period is like the October 2002 to March 2003 time period. Of course, the basis for drawing this alleged parallel is that the market has bottomed. Well, according to Dow theory, this is not like March 2003.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 20, 2009
Stock Market Resumes 2009 Crash- Quick Forecast Update / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The Stocks bear market that resumed this week with a vengeance, with the FTSE trading 100 points lower today and the Dow Jones expected to follow suit on the open, this sets the scene for further sharp selling that has already broken the bear market low on the Dow Jones at least.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 20, 2009
U.S. Bankrupt, Dow Jones Closes at 6 Year Low / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The Dow Jones finally closed below its November 21st 2008 low (recall that was meant to be the “bottom”), though the wider S&P 500 and NASDAQ have not (yet) broken these psychological levels . It's really a case of nothing but the same old story with banks tanking on ever increasing nationalisation fears. And what of the multiple stimulus packages; well, in short, investors just aren't buying it.Read full article... Read full article...