Category: Stocks Bear Market
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Saturday, October 18, 2008
Fed Fighting to Prevent 1930's Style Financial and Economic Deflation / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
It Still Ain't Gonna Work Plus A Quick Technical Look at Gold - As the market declined into the 2002 low we began to see more manipulation and efforts to hold the market up than ever before. In the wake of these desperately irresponsible acts, interest rates declined, the money supply expanded, banks embarked on ridiculously irresponsible lending practices and the housing bubble was born as was the commodity bubble. These acts by the Fed were a deliberate attempt to hold back the deflationary wrath of Kondratieff Winter, which is all about the purging of excess credit from the system. So, what do the geniuses in charge do? They promote more credit. Now that really makes sense doesn't it? Just as the economic cycle was trying to naturally deflate and purge itself of the credit excesses in 2001 and 2002, the brainiacs in charge stepped in and flooded the economy with more of what was ailing it. Credit.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 17, 2008
Stocks Bear Market Extremes / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The brutal stock markets have been exceedingly hostile to long-term investors for a couple months now, crushing all stocks regardless of their individual fundamentals and merit. And in the last couple weeks, even speculators have been getting slaughtered. This frenetic hyper-volatile environment is making short-term trading nigh-on impossible to execute successfully, even to the short side.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 13, 2008
S&P Stock Index Targeting 400 Bear Market Low / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The S&P 500 has experienced price level growth in the 1990's through today (Oct 10) that is substantially greater than the price growth it experienced in the 40 years after 1950.
We've all partied in the growth rates of the last approximate 20 years, but the party may be over.
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Saturday, October 11, 2008
The Once in a Lifetime Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Why wasn't that a perfect reversal Jack? Because the advance decline line wasn't right. Slightly more losers than gainers on the Nas but 2/1 negative on the Nyse. You want 2/1 or 3/1 advancers to decliners. I know today seemed exciting with such a massive reversal but many stocks lagged badly and some were absolutely crushed. You won't see that when we make just the right reversal. The rally occurred for two reasons. Incredibly oversold and massive short covering ahead of the G7 meeting this weekend which will be a meeting to try and find more solutions for the current credit crisis. The shorts are afraid of them coming up with a solution that the market will like.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 10, 2008
Trading Stock Bear Markets / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Last week was one of the wildest witnessed in the stock markets in modern history. On Monday September 29th stocks started plunging immediately after the US House of Representatives voted down the Wall Street bailout. This steep decline ignited a massive fear spike unlike anything seen in years. It was awe-inspiring to behold.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 09, 2008
US Assets Depressed Investors Price in Worst Case Scenario / Companies / Stocks Bear Market
On August 14, 2008 Warren Buffett disclosed a position in NRG Inc. In reaction to this news the regular Buffett followers rejoiced, bid up shares of NRG, and awaited their fat returns. Shares have fallen 55% since August 27.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Stock Market Trouble and Strife, Catch a falling knife? Not on your life / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Hundreds, if not thousands –perhaps even millions– of traders, investors and technicians are waiting eagerly on the sidelines like the boomer sooners of the Oklahoma land rush hoping to catch the bottom of the panic. This is known in the trade as catching the falling knife. It is not a recommended strategy (what is the difference between a tactic and a strategy? as John McCain would say).Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
Stocks Bear Market Returns With a Vengeance / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The bear has returned with a vengeance. It looks like the Paulson bailout package was too little too late. The lines in all the major averages that were being drawn since June have now been crashed to the downside. Thus our decision to wait on the sideline last month has been vindicated. It was one of the worst stock market months in years and it is bound to get much uglier before a bottom is reached. Hopefully capitulation will come sooner rather than later.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
Stock Markets to Fall Another 25% Due to Margin Debt Deleveraging / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
There is one concrete reason why US indices could lose at least another 20-25% from current levels. The powerful correlation between margin debt usage by member firms of the NY Stock Exchange and the trend of major indices such as the S&P500 and the Dow Jones Industrials Average suggests further selling ahead in the main indices.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis and Silver Recessions / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
When is it going to end for the stock market woes and for silver? The Elliott Wave analysis which helped us see this major top for silver and gold is giving a signal for the general stock market as we find it in the S&P 500. The chart below sums it up and tells us that the S&P bear market is almost over.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 06, 2008
Nasdaq Break Below 2000 Confirms Severe Collapse of the Economy / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Before I get in to what took place today I want to discuss a very important breakdown in the Nas today. If we go back to late 2005 and again late 2006 there is a very nice double bottom at Nas 2000. Yes, we closed below it yesterday but only by 1% and with the House decision on the bill today, it was an important day to see if the Nas could get itself back above that critical 2000 level. The fact that it feel more than 1% to 1947 confirms officially that 2000 break. A triple bottom breakdown. Nasty stuff. When an index retests a low as the Nas did late in 2006 in is very important that this level gets defended on any future selling.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 04, 2008
Stocks Secular Bear Market Immune to Bailout Government Manipulation / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By every historical measure the equity markets slipped into a secular bear market in 2000. As a result, we began to see efforts by the powers that be to keep the market afloat. I have stated all along that manipulation, will ultimately not work. I have also stated all along that all this will do is make matters worse in the end. Well, I would think that everyone can now see, matters are indeed much worse. Yet, the Fed, the Treasury and the politicians continue to think that they can “fix” the problem by throwing more money at it. They do not understand that they can't “fix” this economic crisis. They also do not understand that it is their trying to “fix” things in the past that has created the current situation. All markets as well as the economy must both inhale and exhale. They are trying to prevent the exhaling and it ain't gonna work.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 04, 2008
Bailout Does Not Change Bearish Stock Market Fundamentals / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Oink, oink! While attempting to craft a bill that would supposedly restore confidence in the financial markets, lawmaker just couldn't help not putting in goodies that have nothing to do with the bailout. This bill started with three pages of text. It has now expanded to over 400 pages. A partial list of earmarks in the 451-page bill includes a $2 million tax benefit for makers of wooden arrows for children; a $100 million tax break to benefit auto racetrack owners; $192 million in rebates on excise taxes for the Puerto Rican and Virgin Islands rum industry; $148 million in tax relief for U.S. wool fabric producers; and a $49 million tax benefit for fishermen and other plaintiffs who sued over the 1989 tanker Exxon Valdez spill.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 02, 2008
GE Hovering Over Critical Long-Term Support / Companies / Stocks Bear Market
I noted to subscribers yesterday that General Electric (NYSE: GE) continues to hover just above a critical long-term support plateau between 23.30 and 22.00, which if violated and sustained could trigger a powerful long-side liquidation that drives prices to 18.00-17.00 next.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 01, 2008
Financial Storm Ensures Stocks Bear Market has Much Further to Run / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
When all around us are moaning and groaning and pulling out their hair, and when they are concerned with their loss of money as though it were a loss of life, remember all those times that you were called a fool for buying and holding gold. Remember when you were thought of as a silly alchemist turning “good” paper into worthless gold. Be thankful for the fact that you will be here to pick up the industrial, transport, utility, and technology shares of the surviving companies as they are tossed away like garbage. The United States of America is not through for a simple reason. You, the honorable, the sound, the wise, the patient, and the gold holders and believers, will rebuild your nation. This process has been repeated over and over again. It is being repeated once again.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Stock Market Meltdown On Bailout Rejection / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
I'm writing this around 6:00 AM and the market futures are up this morning following yesterday's 777 point drubbing of the DOW, which came after the House of Representatives voted no against the Wall Street bailout package. We are in a pure crash mode in the market. After the close yesterday I looked at the internal figures and 97% of the volume on the Nasdaq was to the downside - that's a figure I never have seen before.
On the national news last night there was talk of expecting a crash today. And of course we've heard doom and gloom pronouncements by President Bush, Treasury Secretary Paulson, and Ben Bernanke that if their bailout for Wall Street wasn't passed there would be a stock market crash and massive bank failures.
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Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Bailouts Will Not End the Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Sharon A. Daniels writes: The Dow first brushed up against the 1,000 level when I was just a kid, and by the time it closed above 1,000 for good, I was old enough to have kids of my own.
The entire period of the late '60s, the full decade of the 1970s, and even the first few years of the '80s, was one long and painful secular bear market in stocks. This period was basically a "lost decade-and-a-half" for investors.
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Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Stocks Bear Market Risk and Gold Bottoming / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Tuesday likely will be another pivotal day for equities, with Goldman Sachs earnings due out before the opening bell, and at 2:15 PM ET, the FOMC decision. Some people already are calling for a rate cut of 50 bps (to 1.50%) in order, I suspect, to allay investor fears in the aftermath of the Fed refusing to throw more money at companies with ugly balance sheets and bad debts.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 12, 2008
Proxy Short Position in S&P 500 Stock Market Index / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
There are so many crosscurrents in the markets right now that I really don't trust much if any sector on the long side. With that in mind, and in view of the multitude of uncertainties we are faced with, our model portfolio will remain in our proxy short S&P 500 position via the long side of the Short S&P 500 Proshares ETF (AMEX: SH). Let's notice the cluster of critical support represented by the rising 20 and 50 day moving averages, as well as from the September up trendline -- all in the vicinity of 69.00-68.60. Unless that area is violated, we need to maintain a proxy short position.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 05, 2008
Stocks Bear Market is Smashing Everything- Shorting the Rallies / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
On Thursday the DOW fell over 300 points. I made a killing on my short positions, but gold stocks fell hard too. Luckily I got stopped out for a small loss the day before, but nonetheless I don't like seeing gold and commodities drop at all here. The bear is acting worse than even I had expected and is now smashing everything in sight.Read full article... Read full article...