Category: Financial Markets 2011
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Stock Market Santa Rally May Now Be Over / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
-- The VIX revisited mid-cycle support at 26.38 on a pullback from intermediate-term trend support/resistance at 30.55. However, longer-term the VIX closed below its weekly and monthly support (red line). It appears that the diamond formation that I had been pointing out the last two months has had a false breakout. The cycles, however, point to a higher year-end for the VIX. Despite closing below intermediate-term trend support, the VIX shows a reversal pattern that suggests a breakout next week..
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Investors: Demand Beef; Reject Cake / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: DeepCaster_LLC
”Let them eat cake.”
Attributed to Queen Marie Antoinette, shortly before being guillotined during the French Revolution.
”Where’s the beef?”
Fmr V.P. Walter Mondale to Sen. Gary Hart (1984)
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Thursday, December 08, 2011
To ECB or Not to ECB? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: PhilStockWorld
To bail, or not to bail--that is the question:
- Whether ’tis nobler in the EU to suffer
- The slings and arrows of outrageous swap rates
- Or to print money against a sea of debt
- And by printing, inflate them. To loan, to bail-- No more
- And by a loan to say we end the illiquidity,
- and the thousand natural shocks
- That economies are heir to.
Thursday, December 08, 2011
Marc Faber Says Euro Will Survive and U.S. Stocks 'Not Terribly Expensive' / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Bloomberg
Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report spoke to Bloomberg TV's Lisa Murphy and Adam Johnson and said that U.S. equities are not "terribly expensive" and that he thinks the euro will survive.
Tuesday, December 06, 2011
Cyclical Sell Signal for Stocks and Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX nudged up against the intersection of the smaller hourly Broadening Wedge and the larger daily Broadening Wedge first violated in early August. They both have a downside target of 980.00. It has just fallen beneath mid cycle trend resistance at 1257.70, giving it a cyclical sell signal. Crossing below intermediate-term trend support at 1233.46 will confirm that sell signal. Welcome to wave 3.
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Monday, December 05, 2011
Risky Moves Spark Quick Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: John_Browne
Last week, with liquidity concerns reaching a crisis point for Europe, central banks around the world, led by the U.S. Federal Reserve, stepped in to provide emergency measures to insure that the financial gears continue to turn. At the same time, the European Central Bank (ECB) yielded to political pressure to rescue the world's second currency by using an IMF smokescreen to circumvent its own prohibition against making loans directly to member countries. Lastly, Germany indicated possible agreement to provide more bailout funds if Eurozone countries would agree to yield more fiscal sovereignty to German control. Taken together these measures have certainly provided some relief to markets, as the current rally attests, but the long term ramifications are harder to assess.
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Monday, December 05, 2011
Stock Market Wave2 Complete Giving a Pre Crash Formation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
-- The VIX deepened its retracement to test daily mid-cycle support at 26.11, then closed above monthly mid-cycle support at 27.30. Short-term, it has lost its daily buy signal as long as it stays below intermediate-term trend support/resistance at 31.25. However, longer-term the VIX remains above critical support and maintains its buy signal on a weekly and monthly basis. It appears that the diamond formation that I had been pointing out the last several weeks has had a false breakout. The cycles, however, point to a higher year-end for the VIX. Perhaps the VIX will meet or exceed the target suggested by the Diamond pattern by year-end.
Sunday, December 04, 2011
Gold, Eurodollars, and the Black Swan That Will Devour the US Futures and Derivatives Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Jesse
The Eurodollars estimate in the chart below is based on the BIS Banking Statistics from Commercial Banks and may not include official reserves held by Central Banks.
As you know the Federal Reserve stopped reporting Eurodollars some years ago, with the consequence that it also stopped reporting M3 money supply.
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Friday, December 02, 2011
Manufactured Metrics and the Great Liquidity Pump / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Andy_Sutton
Just When You Thought You’d Seen it All - As I wrote in the last installment regarding the situation in Europe, matters are progressing there much more quickly now as the continent sways back and forth between financial oblivion and a nervous peace brought about by paper promises (yes, paper promises) by central banks around the world. The purpose of this article is not to focus on the behind the scenes of these actions – we’ve already done that, but to examine some of the other outlying issues that are rarely mentioned.
Friday, December 02, 2011
Stock Market and AMEX Gold BUGS Contracting Fibonacci Spiral Implications / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: David_Petch
Christmas is in the air, with festivities of Ramadan and the Festival of Lights all culturally intertwining to form a more current version of celebration, as all traditions of the past have formed. Here in Winnipeg, the housing prices finally appear to have topped out, with no visible cutbacks on spending. There is a lot of money in this city...but on the other side, there are those that are barely getting by. This is the most rapidly growing economic group by far. In the past, there was religious discrimination, racial discrimination, sexual orientation and now the latest, economic discrimination.
Thursday, December 01, 2011
Stock Market Money Printing Thrill Gone Already? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: PhilStockWorld
David Fry summed up yesterday’s action perfectly, saying "Wednesday’s massive rally was prompted by sudden global central bank intervention adding (printing money) liquidity (reducing the lending rate overseas to zero basically) to shore up sovereign debt in the eurozone. They basically set up a swap facility to do the job in the future. Is it a cure or a bailout? No, this is a handout. And it doesn’t solve the problems the eurozone is facing."
Thursday, December 01, 2011
Why the Fed's Latest Rescue Effort is Doomed / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes:
World markets got a nice tailwind yesterday (Wednesday) on news that the U.S. Federal Reserve is stepping into the fray along with other central banks to boost liquidity and support the global economy.
Of course it's nice to see stocks get a hefty boost, but to be honest I'd rather see them rising on real news.
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Thursday, December 01, 2011
The Currency War Big Picture Analysis for Gold, Silver & Stocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I think you will admit that we are in the middle of one major crazy financial mess. The part that makes things really crazy is that it’s not just in the United States anymore but rather serious global problem which if not handled properly could change the way we live our lives going forward or possibly even spark some type of war, hopefully things don’t get that crazy… But I do know one thing. Fear is the most powerful force on the planet and people do some crazy things when they are backed into a corner.
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Financial Markets Head and Shoulder Patterns / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Believe it or not, the Euro is the index to watch over the next week or so. The reason is simple. Its master cycle low began on October 3, one day earlier than the equities cycle low. This gives us a one day notice on will happen with the SPX and commodities, for example. It should also give us a one-day notice of the dollar and the VIX top as well.
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Why Early Dec Will Be Financial Markets Last Hurrah! Global Economy to Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Capital3X
Part of this article was originally published to C3X clients on 28 Nov 2011 early Asia trading time and discussed in the C3X live trading room, on Nov 18 2011 when the S&P was at 1160 and AUD/USD below 0.9688, EURUSD at 1.3230 and USDCAD at 1.0480. Markets have already moved in the direction of trends and trading calls that we have published since then.
Monday, November 28, 2011
Stock Market Stalls at Broadening Wedge Trendline / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX appears to have stalled at the Broadening Wedge trendline. This trendline may be challenged, since 17% of all Broadening Wedges see either a challenge of the lower trendline or a throwback into the wedge itself. The obvious second target is the 50-day moving average at 1206.57.
Sunday, November 27, 2011
A Glimpse Into The Future Of The Stock Market And Dollar / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: PhilStockWorld
The "accident" many have been waiting for has finally happened, and it’s called Europe. That doesn’t bode well for the U.S. stock market.
A lot of technical analysts and financial pundits are expecting a standard-issue Santa Claus Rally once a "solution" to Europe’s debt crisis magically appears. There will be no such magical solution for the simple reason the problems are intrinsic to the euro, the Eurozone’s immense debts and the structure of the E.U. itself.
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Friday, November 25, 2011
The Secular Stocks Bear Market and Gold's A-Wave Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Toby_Connor
I have decided to post the weekend premium report to the blog this week. In this report I'm going to take a look at what has transpired and what is likely to come, as the third leg down in the secular bear market begins to intensify.
Back in April of this year I warned investors to get out of stocks in their 401(k) accounts. At the time the dollar was moving into the timing band for a major three year cycle low. It has always been my expectation that the rally out of that major bottom would correspond with the stock market moving down into the third bear market leg of the secular trend that has been in place since 2000. As we now know the dollar did bottom in May of this year and that did correspond with the top of the cyclical bull market that began in March of 2009. It has also been my expectation that the next four year cycle low would occur in the fall of 2012, and that 2012 would be one of the worst economic years in human history.
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Friday, November 25, 2011
Europe's Red Tape Blues / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: HRA_Advisory
Plus ça Change.....
Another month, another Euro area country in the hot seat... Italy already had issues thanks to the buffoonery of its former Prime Minister and it’s now the target of bond vigilantes. No real surprises and no mystery about the steps the euro area countries have to take. What steps get taken and how forcefully is the issue as it has been for months. It’s still all politics.
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Friday, November 25, 2011
Stock, Gold, and Bond Markets Holiday Observations / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The whole family is gathered here, and I haven’t heard so much laughter in a long time. We are also celebrating the arrival of a new granddaughter. I hope you all have much to be thankful for, too.
The VIX appears ready to break out of its diamond formation. This will likely be manifest by a strong surge above its October 3 high. The diamond formation is a classic reversal formation usually accompanied by strong volume once the breakout occurs.
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