Analysis Topic: Election Oracle
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, September 29, 2020
How Trump co-opted the religious right and stacked the courts with conservatives / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020
By: Richard_Mills
“We’re not giving lifetime appointments to this President, on the way out the door, to change the Supreme Court, for the next 25 or 30 years.”
That was Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in 2016, defending his controversial decision to block President Obama’s appointee to the Supreme Court, Merrick Garland.
The veteran Republican lawmaker enraged Democrats by refusing to hold a Senate confirmation hearing on Garland’s appropriateness for the position. Under the US Constitution, the Senate Judiciary Committee conducts hearings examining the background of the nominee and questioning him/ her about their views on a variety of cases and their judicial philosophy.
Yet when faced with a vacancy on the court after the recent death of liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, McConnell vowed to replace her in a Senate vote, before the Nov. 3 election. Like in 2016, a Supreme Court judge had died just before the President’s four-year term had ended (actually six weeks prior this year, vs 8 months in 2016).
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Tuesday, August 18, 2020
Mail-in ballots in order to Fraudulently steal US Presidental Election 2020? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020
By: James_Quinn
WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES IT MAKE?
During questioning by Senator Ron Johnson in 2013 about the false narrative of a Prophet Muhammed video spurring a spontaneous demonstration, presented by National Security Advisor Susan Rice and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, regarding the Benghazi attack that killed Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans, Clinton angrily responded with her now famous quote.
“With all due respect, the fact is, we had four dead Americans. Was it because of a protest or because of guys out for a walk one night who decide to kill some Americans, what difference at this point does it make?” – Hillary Clinton
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Tuesday, July 21, 2020
US Election 2020: ‘A Major Bear Market of Political Decency’ / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020
By: John_Mauldin
I know many of you are wondering what happens if Joe Biden wins the 2020 presidential election? What happens if Donald Trump wins?
So, I called my friend Doug Kass to basically “wargame” the next 12 to 24 months. He’s a veteran trader and investor, one George Soros tried to hire on several occasions. So, when he has something to say, I listen closely.
Doug and I went back and forth on a few issues, but the bottom line is the same: We are in for a very rough ride.
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Sunday, February 16, 2020
Ignore the Polls, the Markets Have Already Told You Who Wins in 2020 / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020
By: Graham_Summers
Ignore the naysayers, the Trump administration has successful engineered an economic boom.
I was recently on Cheddar discussing the markets when the anchor raised the fact that the Trump administration failed to achieve its economic goals.
This is false.
First and foremost, the economic data put out in the U.S. has become EXTREMELY politically biased.
The reason for this is simple, many of the people who compile this information are Democrats who hate the President (the bulk of Government employees live and work in Northern Virginia/ D.C. which went 92% for Hillary Clinton in 2016).
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Wednesday, January 29, 2020
Trump vs Cortez - Clash of the Titans / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020
By: Peter_Schiff
In the decades that I have been listening to politicians clumsily trying to explain the economy there has never been a period, with the possible exception of the early Reagan years, in which major party leaders were able to present a solid grasp of economic principles. But I have never seen a time in which the levels of ignorance coming from those in leadership positions is so extreme.
The state of affairs can be illustrated by two interviews last week by Donald Trump and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the Democrats, the two undisputed leaders of our major political parties. Both put forth visions this week that are illogical, incoherent, and that completely ignore both data and experience. But these leaders are putting out beacons under which the vast majority of Americans are congregating. It's worse than the blind leading the blind, and it bodes very poorly for our ability to deal with the next economic crisis, which I believe is certainly slouching towards Washington, waiting to be born.
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Friday, December 13, 2019
Why Jo Swinson and the Lib Dems LOST Seats General Election 2019 - Sheffiled Hallam Result / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: N_Walayat
According to the pollsters such as Yougov, the Lib Dem's were supposed to hoover up seats in REMAIN constituencies from at least Labour if not the Tories. But that's not what happened! They FAILED to win seats where they were ahead in the polls such as in the Sheffield Hallam constituency. Even Jo Swinson the Lib Deam leader lost her seat to the SNP! Resulting in the Lib Dems dropping from 20 MP's to just 11!
Find out why in this precient video posted the day BEFORE polling day for why the Lib Dem's had burned their support in many consituencies across Britain, such as in Sheffield Hallam where the polls said they were ahead by 4% i.e. 36% to 32% Labour. Instead Labour held onto the seat by 700 votes.
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Thursday, December 12, 2019
UK General Election 2019 BBC Exit Poll Forecast Accuracy Analysis / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Over 50,000 polling stations are open today across the UK to cope with the expected demand from an estimated 34 million voters out of a total of approx 49 million eligible to vote. With all eyes turned to the next big event of election night, the BBC EXIT POLL to follow within minutes of the polls closing at 10pm. Which unlike the multitudes of daily opinion polls that have been all over the place during the past month, the exit poll should provide an accurate gauge of what is the probable outcome of the general election some 5 hours before enough seats have been counted to make the actual result clear.
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Thursday, December 12, 2019
UK Election Seats Forecasts - Tories 326, Labour 241, SNP 40, Lib Dems 17 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's a quick summary of my general election seats per party forecasts ahead of the polls opening.
- Conservatives 326
- Labour 241
- SNP 40
- Lib Dems 17
Thursday, December 12, 2019
UK General Election 2019 FINAL Seats Per Political Party Forecast / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
FINAL SEATS PER POLITICAL PARTY FORECAST
This is my final seats per political party forecast based on extensive analysis published at the market MarketOracle.co.uk website over the past 3 weeks a fraction of which was posted to youtube.
The whole of this analysis was first made available to patrons who support my work that includes my final seats forecast at 12pm on the 11th of December 2019.
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Wednesday, December 11, 2019
What UK CPI, RPI INFLATION Forecasts for General Election Result 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's the economy stupid! The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.
So the focus of this analysis is where the economy in terms of Inflation stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general elections.
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Wednesday, December 11, 2019
Opinion Pollsters, YouGov MRP General Election 2019 Result Seats Forecast / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is my final analysis of a 6 part series that aims to apply lessons learned from the 2017 general election towards a forecast that at it's core is based on my UK house prices momentum analysis that was first made available to Patrons on the 24th of November 2019.
Tory Seats projection analysis to date :
- UK House Prices 322 - UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast (24th November 2019)
- Manifestos Bribes 311 - Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast (30th November 2019)
- Economy 324 - What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019 (4th December 2019)
- Marginal Seats 326 - UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 (7th December 2019)
- Social Mood (patrons) - Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 (9th December 2019)
- Final Forecast (patrons) - Opinion Polls, Betting Markets and Final Forecast Conclusion (11th December 2019)
Analysis to date averages to 3xx Tory seats which shows little deviation against my core house prices based forecast of 322 tory seats.
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Wednesday, December 11, 2019
UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The 2019 December 12th general election will be won and lost in the marginal seats that is be the focus of my fourth in-depth analysis in this series that aims to fine tune my core election forecast based on UK house prices as the most accurate predictor of UK General Elections.
First a recap of my seats projections analysis to date:
- UK House Prices 322 - UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast (24th November 2019)
- Manifestos Bribes 311 - Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast (30th November 2019)
- Economy 324 - What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019 (4th December 2019)
- Marginal Seats (patrons) (UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 (7th December 2019)
- Social Mood (patrons) (Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 (9th December 2019)
- Final Forecast (patrons) - Opinion Polls, Betting Markets and Final Forecast Conclusion (11th December 2019)
Wednesday, December 11, 2019
UK General Election 2019 - Tory Seats Forecast Based on GDP Growth / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's the economy stupid! The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.
So the focus of this analysis is where the economy stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general elections.
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Tuesday, December 10, 2019
YouGov's MRP Poll Final Tory Seats Forecast Revised Down From 359 to 338, Possibly Lower? / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
YouGov is set to update their MRP methodology based election polling seats forecast at 10pm today. Their existing forecast as of 27th November is for Boris Johnson to win a majority of 68 on 359 seats, whilst Labour drops from 242 to 211. As apparently Yougov accurately called the June 2017 General Election! We'll that's what Yougov and the mainstream press keep iterating and thus the obsession with their MRP forecast for 2019.
A quick search reveals - "As the dust of the general election settles, many commentators are still stating they didn’t see it coming. But we did." https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/06/14/how-we-correctly-called-hung-parliament , Yougov.
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Tuesday, December 10, 2019
What UK Economy (Average Earnings) Predicts for General Election Results 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's the economy stupid! The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.
So the focus of this analysis is where the economy stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general election.
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Tuesday, December 10, 2019
Labour vs Tory Manifesto's UK General Election Parliamentary Seats Forecast 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is my third video in a series that looks a the Tory and Labour Manifesto's where my first manifesto video covered the degree to which each party was going to bribe the electorate. And the second focused on the debt dynamics of whether Britain can afford to go on a debt fuelled spending spree given current Debt to GDP of 90%.
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Monday, December 09, 2019
Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
"Ooh Jeremy Corbyn" vs "Get Brexit Done"
Everything's always obvious in hindsight and so it was for the 2017 General Election campaign. We might all have seen it on the TV, but it just failed to register with most. What am I talking about? It is the phenomena that was Jeremy Corbyn or JC! In 2017 we saw it in his speeches, we saw it in his interviews and we definitely saw it at his mass rallies! Ooh Jeremy Corbyn, Ooh Jeremy Corbyn! Some 2.5 years on "Ooh Jeremy Corbyn" may have become a little bit stale but you can still hear it humming in background.
Even fellow Blairites who literally hated most things Jeremy Corbyn stood for i.e. his 1970's style socialist ideology could not fathom the amount of interest that he was generating as JC was EVANGELICAL! So is those close to him could not understand what was going on then what hope did those who never met him in person have.
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Monday, December 09, 2019
Labour / Tory Manifesto's Impact on UK General Election Seats Forecast 2019 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This article continues from (30 Nov 2019 - Labour vs Tory Manifesto Debt Fuelled Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election) concluding in Tory seats forecast as a consquecne of the Labour vs Tory manifestos.
However, Maniesto impacts analysis is part of a series of pieces of in-depth analysis that were first made available to Patrons who support my work.
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Monday, December 09, 2019
Tory Seats Forecast 2019 General Election Based on UK House Prices Momentum Analysis / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 2 of 2 of my UK housing market analysis as consistently the single most accurate predictor of UK general elections. Where part 1 covered how house prices forecast the previous general elections including lessons learned from 2017 (UK House Prices Predicting the Outcome of General Election 2019). And now this analysis converts current UK house prices monentum into a Tory election seats forecast for the 12th December 2019 general election.
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Monday, December 09, 2019
Top Tory Marginal Seats at Risk of Loss to Labour and Lib Dems - Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The 2019 December 12th general election will be won and lost in the marginal seats that is be the focus of my fourth in-depth analysis in this series that aims to fine tune my core election forecast based on UK house prices as the most accurate predictor of UK General Elections.
First a recap of my seats projections analysis to date:
- UK House Prices 322 (UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast)
- Manifestos Bribes xxx (Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast)
- Economy xxx (What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019)
- Marginal Seats
The top 30 or so marginal Labour and Conservative seats will determine the outcome of this General Election just as they had for the 2017 General Election that all of the pollsters and pundits got so badly wrong i.e. instead of Tories winning most of Labours most marginal seats it was Labour who won most of the Tories most marginal seats.
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