Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Wednesday, April 07, 2010
Economy and Inflation, Interview with Rick Davis of the Consumer Metrics Institute / Economics / Economic Theory
Introduction: Richard Davis, President of the Consumer Metrics Institute, measures real-time consumer transactions as an objective indicator of consumer demand and associated economic health. (For more about Richard’s data, please see “Contraction Tracked by the Consumer Metrics Institute Traces Unique Pattern.”)Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 07, 2010
How Long Will Emerging Markets Continue to Prosper From U.S. Debt Ills? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
Don Miller writes: A surge in purchases of emerging market debt and a dip in buyers' appetite for U.S. Treasury bonds has sparked speculation that developing nations have become the next safe haven for bond investors. But the more likely scenario is a reversal of capital flows that will sustain Treasury debt for a little while longer.
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Wednesday, April 07, 2010
William Engdahl: U.S. Economy Won't Recover For at Least 15 Years / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
RT speaks to renowned economist William Engdahl, who shares his views on the recent Greek crisis, and the role American corporations played in it.
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Wednesday, April 07, 2010
Drowning in Debt Developed Economies Between Rock and a Hard Place / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
The developed nations are over-extended, their debt levels are ballooning and their governments are creating copious amounts of money. Put simply, most industrialised nations are now caught between a rock and a hard place.
After years of excesses, the developed world is slowly beginning to realise that you cannot continue to live beyond your means and spend your way to prosperity.
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Wednesday, April 07, 2010
Protectionism Didn’t Cause the Great Depression / Economics / Global Economy
The debate over free trade is riddled with myth after myth. One that keeps resurfacing again and again, no matter how many times it is discredited, is the idea that protectionism caused the Great Depression. One occasionally even hears that the same protectionism—specifically the Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930— was responsible in significant part for World War Two! This is nonsense dreamed up for propaganda purposes by free traders, and can easily be debunked.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 06, 2010
U.S. Debt Crisis Startling Facts / Economics / US Debt
This report contains 11 staggering facts that every American needs to know — and that every investor won’t be able to succeed without …
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Tuesday, April 06, 2010
Both Stock and Gold Markets Have Correctly Assessed the Keynesian Policies of Western Economies / Economics / Inflation
Did some of you feel safer this past weekend? Your wealth was certainly safer. For three days much of the Western world was closed for a religious holiday. Even Keynesians take the holiday. As the Keynesians were away from their government offices, their relentless attack on wealth was silent. As hard as they have been working to destroy wealth in the past year, a rest was probably needed.
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Tuesday, April 06, 2010
Government Stimulus Trillions In Borrowings, Just Say NO! / Economics / US Debt
Let me start out by asking a few questions. How many of you were pro-bailout? How many pro-healthcare? How many think borrowing trillions of dollars to “stimulate” will really have any long term effect what-so-ever on the economy? How many realize that borrowing and spending really isn’t the cure for a problem caused by too much debt and too much consumption?
Now let me ask another question. Aren’t our politicians supposed to represent the will of the people?
Tuesday, April 06, 2010
Dollar Yuan Exchange Rate Issues to Dominate China U.S. April Summit Visit / Economics / US Economy
Chinese President Hu Jintao will attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, D.C. on April 12-13. One of the main agenda items of this summit is to fashion a multilateral strategy to deal with Iran's suspected nuclear weapons development program. But the announcement of President Hu's attendance at this summit has set off speculation that the Chinese government is prepared to let the yuan appreciate versus the U.S. dollar. From about July 2005 through June 2008, the yuan was allowed to slowly appreciate versus the dollar. But in July 2008 as the global financial crisis was intensifying, the Chinese government stabilized the yuan/dollar exchange rate. (See Chart 1.)
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Monday, April 05, 2010
Greece Debt Crisis Bailout, Europe Out of Time-Outs / Economics / Euro-Zone
In sports, if the opposition is on a roll and the momentum is squarely against you … you need a “time-out.” This interruption in action can break the rhythm of the opposing team and give your team a moment to re-evaluate and re-group.
In the euro zone, European officials called a time-out back in February hoping to stem the heavy wave of selling against the euro and the speculative pressures on sovereign debt risk.
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Monday, April 05, 2010
China Yuan Repegging and Other Non Free Market Trade Imbalance Solutions Are Doomed to Fail / Economics / Economic Theory
In spite of much yapping by economists, especially Paul Krugman, I strongly doubt a currency repeg by China would do much (if indeed anything at all) to cure any global imbalances.
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Sunday, April 04, 2010
U.S. Dollar Gains on March Jobs Growth / Economics / US Economy
For only the second time in the 27 month period since the start of the US recession, employers have added jobs. This is the news from the US Labor Department in its monthly payroll report for March released early Friday (April 2) morning.
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Sunday, April 04, 2010
Is This a Economic Recovery? / Economics / Economic Recovery
Is This a Recovery?
This Time is Different
The End Game
Some Good News on Unemployment
The Effects of a Tax Increase
Last week I wrote a letter to my kids trying to explain what Greece meant to them. Reader Ken V wrote: "Great letter, John. Now you should write one for the adults who are retired and don't have the long future your kids do. If the US becomes Greece, things won't recover in time for much of the rest of my life to be more than one grim, dreary period. What is your investment advice for those with roughly a 10-year horizon, not 30-40-50 years?"
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Sunday, April 04, 2010
Underemployment In The U.S. Rises to 20.3% in March / Economics / US Economy
Reports from the Labor Department today showed companies in the U.S. created more jobs in March than at any time in the past three years, showing the recovery is broadening and becoming more entrenched.
Payrolls rose by 162,000 workers, the most gain since March 2007, though the increase included 48,000 temporary Census workers. Unemployment remains at 9.7% for a third month.
Sunday, April 04, 2010
U.S. Friday Jobs Report / Economics / US Economy
Most markets are closed Friday. Japan was open and they went up 41 points (0.37%) and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index also went up 0.3% in Tokyo 1trading and Russia fell 0.1% but markets in Australia, Hong Kong, China, New Zealand, Singapore, India, the Philippines, Indonesia, the U.S. and all of western Europe are closed today for holidays. Strangely though, the Futures Market is open this morning so that can make things very tricky on a big data day like today.
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Saturday, April 03, 2010
India’s Emerging Ambitions / Economics / India
The Indian government plans to sell a stake of about 10% from the state-owned Manganese Ore (India) Ltd as part of the government’s drive to sell steel-related state assets. Manganese Ore is the nation’s largest manganese producer and meets about 65% of the domestic needs. The company, meanwhile, has plans to ramp up its ferro-manganese production capacity. On the flip side, the company’s finance director has warned that the company’s profits at the end of the current fiscal is likely to show a drop of about 22% because of the lower steel demand last year.
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Friday, April 02, 2010
US Labor Market adds 163k Jobs? Is it for Real or another Sham? / Economics / Economic Recovery
Blog writers have been overwhelmingly negative on the increasingly deteriorating unemployment situation in the US. No matter what data is released, they are discarded as unreal or so full of holes that an elephant could walk through them.
Even the current BLS report seems to have been bashed pretty badly by most blogs.
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Friday, April 02, 2010
U.S. Jobs Increase by 136,000, Unanswered Questions About Seasonality / Economics / Employment
This morning the BLS reported an increase of 136,000 jobs. Headline unemployment was unchanged at 9.7%. Before diving into the numbers let's look at a couple questions from a live Q&A session. The BLS took questions in advance.
Friday, April 02, 2010
Increasing Debt Increases Economic Growth Say the Keynesians / Economics / US Debt
You may not have watched my video seminar, "Retirement Armageddon." It's here.
Let me explain why you should.
In fiscal 2010, the Federal debt will increase by an estimated $1.5 trillion, give or take $100 billion.
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Thursday, April 01, 2010
U.S. Debt–to-GDP Situation, When Will the Dominos Align / Economics / US Debt
In February 19, 2010 Wall Street Journal, Daniel Henninger included the following chart in his column. Federal spending has grown seven times the real median household income over the last 40 years. At some point, the government will be unable to pay for all the new programs, stimulus, healthcare, rapid expansion in number of government employees, etc. The market will drive up the cost of debt to levels that lead to default. Many say it cannot happen to the U.S.
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