Category: Crude Oil
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, May 23, 2008
Oil based Stock Indexes are Top Global Performers / Stock-Markets / Crude Oil
By: Donald_W_Dony
When all of the global equity indexes are reviewed for performance in 2008, one common thread binds the top performing groups. Those countries that have increasing oil production capabilities are the clear winners. Canada's energy heavy S&P/TSX, Russia and Latin American stock indexes have rallied to new highs whereas non-commodity-based and even other types of natural resource-based indexes have remained down.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
The Real Reason Behind Record High Oil Prices- Part 2 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: F_William_Engdahl
As detailed in an earlier article, a conservative calculation is that at least 60% of today's $128 per barrel price of crude oil comes from unregulated futures speculation by hedge funds, banks and financial groups using the London ICE Futures and New York NYMEX futures exchanges and uncontrolled inter-bank or Over-The-Counter trading to avoid scrutiny. US margin rules of the government's Commodity Futures Trading Commission allow speculators to buy a crude oil futures contract on the Nymex, by having to pay only 6% of the value of the contract. At today's price of $128 per barrel, that means a futures trader only has to put up about $8 for every barrel. He borrows the other $120. This extreme “leverage” of 16 to 1 helps drive prices to wildly unrealistic levels and offset bank losses in sub-prime and other disasters at the expense of the overall population. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Crude Oil Spikes to New High on Emerging Markets Demand- Part 1 of 2 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
The oil price has in the past few years been a major influence on the gold price and quite rightly too. Both represent an unalterable definer of power and value. But of late the gold price has lagged the oil price in its relationship with oil. We see this as a temporary situation, which will persist until the ‘big' global picture forces itself onto the realities of our daily life in our local communities.
Once this happens we believe that the gold and silver price will catch up and reassert itself, not as a ‘gold standard' [after all governments will manage such a system as it currently does paper currencies] but as a measure of value and power in the monetary system [more on that in future articles]. So in this piece we look at the oil crisis, which is not fully appreciated by its audience, staring us in the face.
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Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Crude Oil Prices Set to Double and Double Again! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
Goldman Sachs recently forecasted that oil would be at $141 a barrel by the end of the year, and rising to $200 a barrel in the not too distant future. I have seen other forecasts calling for oil to slip significantly under $100 a barrel before starting yet another bull market.
I have written for years that we are not going to run out of oil or energy, just cheap oil. I was just in South Africa, where much of their gas and diesel comes from coal gasification. At one time this was an expensive way to make gas, and South Africans had to pay more for their gas than the rest of the world. Now, it is getting close to "par" to the cost of gas in the US, and is cheaper than gas in Europe.
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Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Oil Crisis Stagflation Spiral Special / News_Letter / Crude Oil
By: NewsLetter
Crude oil continued to hit its new all time high of $128 today by closing above $127 for the first time, up 96% in 12 months and 165% in 3 years. The impact of the price hike is both inflationary and deflationary at the same time. Inflationary as oil is the life blood of the functioning of global economies and thus resulting in across the board price hikes. Deflationary impacts as the price hike acts as a tax on the consumer from fuel pumps to food stores thus leaving less money in the hands of the consumer to pay for the necessities let alone for luxuries. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Oil Crisis Stagflation Spiral Special / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Crude oil continued to hit its new all time high of $128 today by closing above $127 for the first time, up 96% in 12 months and 165% in 3 years. The impact of the price hike is both inflationary and deflationary at the same time. Inflationary as oil is the life blood of the functioning of global economies and thus resulting in across the board price hikes. Deflationary impacts as the price hike acts as a tax on the consumer from fuel pumps to food stores thus leaving less money in the hands of the consumer to pay for the necessities let alone for luxuries.
This is creating a spiraling stagflationary environment, as on its own the western economies could have coped with the oil crisis, but having been hit with the triple whammy of deflating housing markets that itself triggered the bursting of the credit bubble that continues to deepen as banks fail to report the true extent of the crisis on the interbank LIBOR market.
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Saturday, May 17, 2008
The Myth of Lower Oil Prices Ahead / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Ty_Andros
Confusion reigns supreme as the mainstream financial press throw thoughts and headlines at you as they WISH THEM TO BE, instead of how they truly are. They do this to FLEECE you and get you to invest in products which serve their interests instead of yours. Never, ever invest based upon headlines splashed in front of you. They are almost always false. Daily activity in the markets provides lots of solid trading opportunities, but these opportunities rarely are consistently successful unless it is within the long-term trends and macro economic picture of the GLOBE, not just the G7. Invest based upon the picture within the US and you will be severely injured. The US must only be considered based upon the larger global economic pictures. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Odds Favor Short-Term Crude Oil Downtrend / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Frank_Holmes
Years ago when oil was $30 per barrel, we were laughed at when we suggested that it could trade over $100. Now it seems we were being a bit conservative.
That said, based on statistical tools we use to measure probabilities, we believe oil is currently overbought and due for a short-term correction of $20 to $35 before resuming a longer-term price climb that could well reach $200 per barrel.
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Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Crude Oil Marches Higher on Chinese Earthquake / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The viciousness with which the oil market pivots and reverses in both directions certainly is unnerving- at least to me, anyway. "The market" has totally bought into the idea that supplies are so tight that 500,000 bbls of Nigerian crude oil stuck in port, coupled with increased demand for diesel fuel from the Chinese earthquake region are reasons for nearby crude oil prices to climb from $123 to new all-time highs at $127 (3%) in about two hours of trading! Whether we believe those explanations or not really does not matter, because price means everything, and right now, price is on the march higher once again.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 09, 2008
Real Crude Oil Price Peaks Trigger Recessions / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Black_Swan
Crude oil has a $25 dollar premium built into the price - We are not making this up; it comes from IMF economist John Lipsky, quoted in a story today carried by Bloomberg:
“IMF research indicates that if the dollar hadn't fallen from 2002 to 2007, oil prices would be $25 a barrel lower. Crude oil futures surpassed $120 a barrel this week for the first time. Commodity prices excluding fuel would be 12 percent lower, Lipsky said.”
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Saturday, May 03, 2008
Perhaps 60% of today's Crude Oil Price is Pure Speculation / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: F_William_Engdahl
The price of crude oil today is not made according to any traditional relation of supply to demand. It's controlled by an elaborate financial market system as well as by the four major Anglo-American oil companies. As much as 60% of today's crude oil price is pure speculation driven by large trader banks and hedge funds. It has nothing to do with the convenient myths of Peak Oil. It has to do with control of oil and its price. How?
First, the crucial role of the international oil exchanges in London and New York is crucial to the game. Nymex in New York and the ICE Futures in London today control global benchmark oil prices which in turn set most of the freely traded oil cargo. They do so via oil futures contracts on two grades of crude oil—West Texas Intermediate and North Sea Brent.
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Friday, April 25, 2008
Crude Oil Bull Market is Sustainable Due to Supply Fundamentals / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Zeal_LLC
Crude oil is one of the hottest commodities on the planet these days. Almost without respite, it has surged 16% in April alone! It closed at new all-time record highs on 8 of the past 11 trading days. Pushing $120 per barrel now, the fabled $100 price point that the markets feared for so many years now seems modest.
Commodities bulls have been long oil and oil stocks for many years now, so oil's strength isn't too surprising. Naturally we attribute its powerful advance to a global supply and demand imbalance. Oil demand is simply growing a lot faster than oil supply, so higher prices are the only way to retard demand and accelerate production until a new equilibrium price is reached.
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Friday, April 25, 2008
Crude Oil Heading for $134 During 2008 Despite Near-term Weakness / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Donald_W_Dony
Thursday's downward trading of oil brought some relief to the equity markets. Don't expect the decline to last. Technical models are indicating short-term downward pressure until the end of April. As May unfolds, increasing upward pressure should return. The first level of support is at $110 followed by solid support at $100. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Crude Oil Bulls Show Technical Signs of Weakening / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Black_Swan
There’s not a whole lot of technical analysis you can do when an underlying security or asset is shooting straight up through uncharted territory, record high after record high.
But regardless of the situation, you can always analyze price action one day at a time.
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Thursday, April 24, 2008
Crude Oil Tops $119! What's Next ... / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes: Since trading as low as $50.53 early in 2007, oil prices have exploded higher, stunning the world. Just yesterday, crude jumped to a new all-time high above $119 a barrel!
Consumers would probably be happy just to see oil fall back to $100 a barrel. How sad is that?
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Monday, April 21, 2008
Energy Sector Outlook: Bullish Oil and Gas Trends Still in Place / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Joseph_Dancy
The price of crude oil hovered around $100 a barrel last month, while natural gas futures pushed toward $10 per thousand cubic feet. Both are impressive due to the fact we are in ‘shoulder season' – a time when moderating weather tends to weaken prices. Long term demand and supply trends remain powerfully bullish. Last month the following events occurred in the energy sector: Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 06, 2008
Elliott Wave on Crude Oil and the US Dollar / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Dan_Stinson
Short Term ForecastThe USD and Crude appear to be in triangle patterns, currently in wave (D). (The Euro also appears as a triangle in wave (D).)
The action has been very corrective for the USD and Crude indicating that a brief new high for Crude and a brief new low for the USD is expected. We can confirm that a triangle pattern is in play if we see a bounce off the trendlines at the wave (D) intercepts.
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Thursday, March 13, 2008
Global “Oil Shock” Rattles World Stock Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Gary_Dorsch
Cleaning up the mess that Mr Greenspan left behind was never going to be easy. Banks and brokers around the world face more than half-trillion dollars in write-offs as a consequence of the US sub-prime mortgage crisis, which is spreading from the US property market and roiling global stock markets. It's toppled the US economy into a recession and the tremors are also rattling Asian stock markets. Roughly $7 trillion has been wiped from world stock markets since the beginning of the year amid fears of a severe US economic recession and financial institutions reporting more mega losses. “The market crisis will preoccupy us well into 2008,” he said German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck on Feb 15th. “The financial risks securitized by banks contained packaged explosives,” and he accused rating agencies of having a conflict of interest in the role they played in the process.
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Monday, March 10, 2008
Peak Oil - True or False? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Stephen_Lendman
The arguments are so one-sided, it's practically a given that "peak oil" is real and threatening. Or is it? This article examines both sides. It lets readers decide and deals only with supply issues, not crucial environmental ones and the need to develop alternative energy sources. First some background. The name most associated with "peak oil" is M. King Hubbert. He became the world's best known geologist when he worked for Houston-based Shell Oil Company from 1943 to 1964. His theory goes something like this. Oil is a finite resource. Peak oil, or Hubbert's peak, is the point at which maximum world production is reached, after which its rate terminally declines.
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Monday, March 03, 2008
Crude Oil Topping While Dow Transports Looks Bullish / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Let's notice that from July 2007 into the third week of January, rising oil prices, as reflected by the US Oil Trust ETF (NYSE: USO), depressed prices of the DJ Transports, as reflected by the iShares DJ Transport ETF (AMEX: IYT). However, since late January, oil prices and the transports both generally have maintained an upward trajectory. Why? My sense is that the most recent upmove in oil from $70 to $82 in the USO (from $86 to $103 in nearby crude oil) reflects the final, speculative blow-off type move in oil prices -- the aftermath of a sideways congestion period, juxtaposed against a transportation index that is discounting improved economic conditions that should be forthcoming from an accommodative (soon to become a MORE accommodative) Fed.Read full article... Read full article...