Category: Crude Oil
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Thursday, October 11, 2007
Another Upleg in Crude Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil
The action during the past couple of sessions in the U.S. Oil Trust (AMEX: USO) as well as in crude off of the 9/28 high at 64.25 represents another bullish consolidation within the dominant uptrend rather than a near-term top…and indicates strongly that another upleg may have started off of the Sept-Oct double-bottom lows near 60.20, which projects to a test and hurdle of 64.25. Only a break below 60.00 will compromise my near-term constructive outlook.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 21, 2007
Remember Crude Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil
There have been many activities missed by headlines writers over the last week due to the focus on the banking crisis.On any other week the rise in the price of oil would be top of the headlines says Betonmarkets.com's Michael Wright. Oil prices reached record highs for the seventh straight session last Wednesday after refineries in California and Texas said they had new outages and the government reported surprisingly large declines in oil inventories.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 16, 2007
Crude Oil and Value of Technical Analysis / Commodities / Crude Oil
Before we get to our weekly briefing on the major market indices, we thought it appropriate to explore the following:
What value might traders and investors place on technical market analysis?
The answer depends upon a few basic variables.
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Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Crude Oil Reaches Seasonal Peak While Natural Gas Begins Its Climb / Commodities / Crude Oil
The normal annual demand forces for oil have reached a crest again. Mid-year driving pressures, which usually peaks in between early August to as late as mid-October, has forced this commodity once more to roar over $78 in early August in similar fashion to last year. Oil then follows a typical path of drifting downward to a low late in the 4th quarter. Natural gas, on the other hand, begins to escalate upwards during this time and tops in October to December depending on winter weather.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 03, 2007
Polonium, Politics and $100 Crude Oil / Politics / Crude Oil
"...If you fear that we're only a couple of headlines away from $100 oil, be careful how you buy into Russia's huge energy reserves..."
A RISK CONSULTANCY firm based in Canary Wharf 's gleaming financial district emails us here at BullionVault to ask:
"We are keen if possible to get a view from you on the recent heat between the UK and Russian governments.
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Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Migrating to New Energy Paradigms Part 2 - The Economic Importance of Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
Peak Oil is defined as the point at which 50% of the world's oil reserves have been consumed, and 50% remain. We all understand that oil is important to the world economy, but just how important is it?
In October 2004 I attempted to answer this question on behalf of a client as part of that client's long range strategic planning process. The amount of work involved was fairly significant so I have chosen to rely on my findings of that time for the purposes of this article. There are two other reasons:
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Wednesday, July 18, 2007
How to Profit from Crude Oil's Next Surge / Commodities / Crude Oil
Sean Brodrick writes: I have bad news: If you think oil prices are high now, you ain't seen nothin' yet. The good news is that you can profit from oil's next move. That should help you pay your soaring bills when gasoline accelerates past $4 a gallon. More on that in a moment. First, let's talk about why energy prices are on the move.
About a month ago, I gave you "Three Triggers for Higher Oil Prices." Just to refresh your memory, they are: 1. the potential for monster hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, 2. spreading violence in the Persian Gulf, and 3. a potential al Qaeda attack on U.S. oil facilities.
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Tuesday, July 17, 2007
How High Can Crude Oil Fly? / Commodities / Crude Oil
In London, the price of North Sea Brent, the benchmark for two-thirds of the world's oil, touched an all-time high of $78.40 per barrel this week, with no sense of alarm at the world's top central banks. Regarded as a key indicator of global inflation, central bankers are sitting in stone faced silence about the surge in crude oil, and that's been good news for bullish speculators in gold and energy shares.After all, higher interest rates won't produce one extra barrel of oil. When asked about the high price of crude oil on July 10th, Federal Reserve chief Ben “helicopter” Bernanke replied, “Inflation is less responsive than it used to be to changes in oil prices and other supply shocks. If inflation expectations are well anchored, changes in energy and food prices should have relatively little influence on “core” inflation.” Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 16, 2007
Crude Oil Going To $80 a Barrel? / Commodities / Crude Oil
How do you beat the market when oil keeps on rising? Last week's rise in the price of oil to $74/barrel once again raises speculation that we could see all time highs in oil. As you might realize there are three factors that contribute the price of oil. Supply of oil, demand for oil and speculation. Looking at these factors may help provide a better understand of where the price of oil might go.
Supply of Oil
The following is from the Energy Information Administration Short Term Energy Outlook .
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Friday, July 13, 2007
The Trouble with Refining Crude OIl / Commodities / Crude Oil
Earlier this week, I was invited on Canadian television to offer a real-time analysis of the latest weekly petroleum report from the US EIA. The Petroleum Status Report is released each week at 10:30 am EST, detailing exactly how much oil, gasoline and distillate is currently in storage in the US.Sometimes, the report just isn't all that interesting nor does it always have much of an impact on market prices for crude and gasoline. But that certainly hasn't been the case this year.
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Wednesday, July 11, 2007
We're Going to Need a Good Recession to Avoid Much Higher Energy Prices! / Commodities / Crude Oil
The International Energy Agency released their " Medium-Term Oil Market Report " a short time ago - it looks like we're going to need a good recession to avoid much higher energy prices over the next few years.
Thought you might like to hear that first thing on a Monday morning - here's why:
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Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Crude Oil surging! Resource countries flying! / Commodities / Crude Oil
Martin here with an urgent update on the latest surge in oil, its many causes and its far-reaching consequences.
After months of meandering without direction, oil markets are jumping back into the limelight.
They're bursting with new activity … moving quickly toward the highest price levels of all time … and setting off a rapid-fire chain reaction of events that most investors are missing.
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Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Crude Oil Prices - Politics and Inflation / Commodities / Crude Oil
Oil is the commodity that the majority of people are most aware of. A 10% increase in the price of crude oil makes the headline news. One cannot drive down Main Street without seeing a sign for the latest gas price.
But how many are aware that lead has risen 155% over the last year? During that same time, tin has gone from US$3.48 a pound to US$6.49 – an 86% increase. Nickel was already surging before last summer but using the same timeframe shows an increase of 122%.
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Saturday, June 23, 2007
Gasoline Prices - It's all about the Refineries ... For Now / Commodities / Crude Oil
If you've been wondering why gasoline prices have been so high lately with crude oil trading at only $66 per barrel, the answer can be found at the refineries.
This week's TWIP (This Week in Petroleum) from the Energy Information Administration has some interesting commentary and, as always, abundant charts to tell the story of how retail gasoline prices have fallen for the second consecutive week, down five cents to $3.16 per gallon.
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Wednesday, June 20, 2007
Seasonal Pattern Points to Higher Oil Prices in Late Summer / Commodities / Crude Oil
Oil has traded over the past five years with a distinct seasonal pattern. There is an annual low in December or January and a price peak in August or September. But along the path to the top, this commodity often consolidates during April, May and June. The trading action in 2007 is matching exactly this pattern.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
Three Triggers for Higher Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
Sean Brodrick writes : After hitting a nine-month high last week, oil took a shellacking. I guess that means we can all breathe easier and go out and buy HUMMER H3s, right? Not so fast!
Gasoline prices are already 27 cents per gallon higher than they were a year ago, and there is plenty of evidence that they're smoking on the launch pad.
What could be the driving force behind oil's next surge? I can't be sure. That's the challenge — we never know exactly what the oil market will throw at us.
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Saturday, June 09, 2007
The Real Reason for High Gas Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
A major news service ran a couple of feature stories on the Internet this week on the topic of high gas prices. Although different in the details, it was substantially similar to articles they've run off and on over the past two years. This particular article seems to appear whenever gas prices get so high that Americans start grumbling and passing around that chain e-mail about boycotting ExxonMobil.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 02, 2007
Cycle Turn and Trend Indicators and a Look at Crude Oil and Gasoline / Commodities / Crude Oil
Earlier this past week I had intermediate-term sell signals on both crude oil and unleaded gasoline. Given that we are just now approaching the hurricane and summer driving seasons, I have to wonder if these signals are going to be brief or if they are discounting the season ahead and if lower energy prices truly lie ahead.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 11, 2007
The Coming Explosion in Energy prices! / Commodities / Crude Oil
NIMBY is defined as “not in my back yard” and is set to strike at your pocketbook “RIGHT NOW”. For decades the Democrats controlled Congress and in return for campaign contributions and support they worked with environmentalist, and trial lawyer constituents, passing laws and regulations which allowed them to manipulate the court system to basically block energy production in the United States, a refinery hasn't been built in over 30 years.
Energy discovery and development has been severely restricted in the United States . Internationally, Oil and Natural gas production have been nationalized, and the results are predictable, the more government becomes involved the less we get of whatever they get involved in. As they for the most part suck the life and money out of whatever they touch.
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Friday, April 27, 2007
A Tale of Two Crudes, WTI Divergence from Brent Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
I've received considerable e-mail from The Energy Letter subscribers asking about a rather unusual phenomenon in the crude oil markets today: a massive, unusual divergence between the prices of two of the world's most-popular crude oil benchmarks, Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI).As it turns out, this was a major topic covered in the most-recent issue of my subscription-based newsletter, The Energy Strategist ( www.energystrategist.com ). The explanation of this divergence also reveals signs of underlying strength in global oil demand. I've reproduced that analysis below:
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