Category: Crude Oil
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, January 18, 2016
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 - Video By Nadeem Walayat / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
After a savage bear market for the oil market for the whole of 2015, the crude oil price has got 2016 off with a bang by plunging to just below $30 before recovering at the last close to $30.68 (WTIC). One does not need to look far for the negative fundamentals that are driving the oil price into dust. Fundamentals such as the sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy, fundamentals such as the apparent oil war that Saudi Arabia is engaged in with the United States shale oil industry and now added to are fundamentals of lifting of sanctions against Iran that can literally immediately flood the oil market with 50 million barrels of crude oil in storage and looks set to up its output by 1m b/d this year.
Sunday, January 17, 2016
Crude Oil Price Crash Triggering Global Instability, Trend Forecast 2016 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The crude oil price collapse of 2015 has continued into 2016 with the price of oil plunging to a 12 year low of just under $30 per barrel as a consequence of a perfect storm of falling demand, primarily due to the slowing Chinese economy and relentlessly rising output that is not just limited to the usual OPEC suspects but is as the natural consequences of the fracking boom that continued to ripple out from the US to across the world during 2015.
Friday, January 15, 2016
Re-Covering Oil and War / Politics / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
The first thing that popped into our minds on Tuesday when WTI oil briefly broached $30 for its first $20 handle in many years, was that this should be triggering a Gawdawful amount of bets, $30 being such an obvious number. Which in turn would of necessity lead to a -brief- rise in prices.
Apparently even that is not so easy to see, since when prices did indeed go up after, some 3% at the ‘top’, ‘analysts’ fell over each other talking up ‘bottom’, ‘rebound’ and even ‘recovery’. We’re really addicted to that recovery idea, aren’t we? Well, sorry, but this is not about recovering, it’s about covering (wagers).
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Friday, January 15, 2016
Oil Wars 2016 - US vs Russia vs Saudi Arabia vs Iran / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The oil price collapse is having a devastating impact on ALL of the worlds major oil producers as it's not just a case of what is the break-even price but the price necessary to finance government budgets that are now in deep deficits which has been triggering increasing global instability as the price has slid to $30. In fact the budgets of virtually every major oil producer requires an oil price north of $80 just to break-even. With several such as Russia requiring $100+. Furthermore the oil price slump of 2015 has played a large part in sparking economic mass migration out of African oil producers such as Nigeria whose government requires an oil price of $120 to balance it's budget.
Friday, January 15, 2016
War Between Saudi Arabia And Iran Could Send Oil Prices To $250 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The rift between Saudi Arabia and Iran has quickly ballooned into the worst conflict in decades between the two countries.
The back-and-forth escalation quickly turned the simmering tension into an overt struggle for power in the Middle East. First, the execution of a prominent Shiite cleric prompted protestors to set fire to the Saudi embassy in Tehran. Saudi Arabia cut off diplomatic relations and kicked out Iranian diplomatic personnel. Tehran banned Saudi goods from entering Iran. Worst of all, Iran blames Saudi Arabia for an airstrike that landed near its embassy in Yemen.
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Crude Oil Price Crash Catastrophe, Independant Scotland Literally Begging to Rejoin the UK / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The oil price collapse of 2015 has continued into 2016 with the price of oil plunging to a 12 year low of $29, less than 1/3rd of just over a year ago at the time of the Scottish Independence mania that surrounded the Independence Referendum on the backs of an oil price of over $100 which had the Scottish Nationalists fantasising of the oil price heading to $120 and beyond, as part of painting a propaganda picture of an Independent Scotland Utopia to be built on tens of billions of free money each year in the form of tax revenues from a perpetually expanding north sea oil industry. Not only were the nationalist convinced of the oil price soaring soaring into the stratosphere but would heavily round on anyone that suggested that oil prices could actually fall as being Unionist propaganda.
Tuesday, January 12, 2016
Peak Bull Crap - How Oil Futures Curve Have Little Predictive Value / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EconMatters
The oil market is the hot market right now from a news generation standpoint. But there are a lot of people writing and even trading in the oil market that frankly don`t have any clue what they are talking about. I have read some real rubbish the last few months regarding the oil market, and with the recent fall in prices, the last few days have been characterized by peak bull crap. Maybe if anything else this is an indication of the bottoming process in oil. Sort of like all those do it yourself Gold Mining shows hitting the reality television scene pretty much nailing the near term top in the gold market.
Tuesday, January 12, 2016
Here is How You Fix the Oil Market / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EconMatters
The Mining Industry Approach
Monday, January 11, 2016
Crude Oil Price Closed Week under 2009 Low! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $39.12) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil lost 1.14% as concerns over a global supply glut, the situation in China and the Middle East continued to weigh on investors sentiment. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude closed the week under the 2009 low. Does it mean that we’ll see a test of the barrier of $30 in the coming weeks?
Friday, January 08, 2016
That`s the Bottom in the Crude Oil Price, Clear Out Weak Hands in the Market / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EconMatters
On Wednesday the oil market sold off to $33.77 on large product`s builds, China`s devaluation of its currency, and a substantial selloff in equities. Sure Oil can go a dollar below this low, but for all intents and purposes this is the bottom in the oil selloff that was predicted for the start of the year. This move down was as predictable a move as there is in financial markets, and we called this down move to start the year with a piece we issued in December.
Thursday, January 07, 2016
Crude Oil Price Breakdown! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $39.12 and an initial downside target at $33.66) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Tuesday, crude oil lost 2.47% as a stronger greenback pushed the price lower. As a result, light crude extended losses and broke below important support line. What impact could it have on future moves?
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Thursday, January 07, 2016
Crude Oil Price Tanks but Oil Tankers are Filling Up and Raking it In / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Sol_Palha
"A man, when he wishes, is the master of his fate." ~ Jose Ferrer
While oil continues to drop, there is one sector connected to the oil market that is doing rather well. It is the oil tanker sector, and while oil is trading at 11-year lows, many stocks in this sector are already posting double digits gains over the past 12 months. This sector looks appealing both from the Contrarian and Mass psychology perspective for the following reasons.
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Tuesday, January 05, 2016
Hedge Funds Remain Bullish Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Dan_Norcini
Just as the case with Silver, so do the hedge funds remain stubbornly long in crude oil.
Here is the updated COT chart as of last Tuesday, December 29, 2015.
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Monday, January 04, 2016
Saudi Arabia and OPEC Manipulate Oil Prices to Eliminate It’s Competition / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
About eighteen months ago the international price of WTI Crude Oil, at the close of June 2014, was $105.93 per barrel. Flash-forward to today; the price of WTI Crude Oil was just holding above $38.00 per barrel, a drastic fall of more than 65% since June 2014. I will point out several reasons behind this sharp, sudden, and what now seems to be prolonged slump.
Thursday, December 31, 2015
Crude Oil and Gold – What Can We Infer from This Relationship? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $39.12 and an initial downside target at $33.66) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Although crude oil moved higher yesterday, the key resistance lines continue to keep gains in check. What does it mean for the commodity? Will the oil-to-gold ratio give us more clues about future moves?
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Wednesday, December 30, 2015
The Crude Oil Price 2016 Prediction Game / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EconMatters
Anybody who tells you they know where the oil market is headed for 2016 is inexperienced, too stupid to realize there are far too many variables in play that are unknowable to predict with any accuracy their effects on other variables in the oil equation, talking their own respective books, just piling in with the recent herd mentality on the street, giving an opinion about as valid as the best paint color for a room, or like to see themselves on television talking about the hot market moving topic du jour.
Wednesday, December 30, 2015
$10 Trillion Investment Needed To Avoid Massive Oil Price Spike Says OPEC / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
OPEC says that $10 trillion worth of investment will need to flow into oil and gas through 2040 in order to meet the world’s energy needs.The OPEC published its World Oil Outlook 2015 (WOO) in late December, which struck a much more pessimistic note on the state of oil markets than in the past. On the one hand, OPEC does not see oil prices returning to triple-digit territory within the next 25 years, a strikingly bearish conclusion. The group expects oil prices to rise by an average of about $5 per year over the course of this decade, only reaching $80 per barrel in 2020. From there, it sees oil prices rising slowly, hitting $95 per barrel in 2040.
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Wednesday, December 23, 2015
Congress Eliminates U.S. Export Oil Ban / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: BATR
If you want to know how the “so called” Free Trade exponents think about exports, just analyze the impact and actual beneficiaries of the US House passes bill to lift 40-year ban on oil exports.
“The crude export restrictions were introduced in the US in 1975 in the middle of the energy crisis. They followed OPEC’s oil embargo of the US and other countries backing Israel during the Arab–Israeli war of 1973. In the face of embargo-related high oil prices, Washington eased the limits on oil imports and ordered an export ban.”
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Thursday, December 17, 2015
How Much Oil Is Needed To Power Santa's Sleigh? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Every year around the world, hundreds of millions of children wait anxiously for Santa Claus to arrive and bring presents and good cheer. But what if Santa never came? What if this year the reindeer all fall ill, perhaps due to Crazy Reindeer disease (the analog to Mad Cow) and Santa is forced to cancel Christmas? The result would be devastating.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 15, 2015
Will Lower Crude Oil Prices Cause the Fed to Delay Tightening? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Bob_Kirtley
The FOMC has been moving towards the beginning of a new tightening cycle for a considerable amount of time. Throughout this year Fed statements and the accompanying press conferences have been preparing the markets for the first rate hike. Since the October FOMC various Fed speakers have signalled to the market that the first hike would come at the December meeting, which is this week.