Category: Crude Oil
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, May 27, 2016
Oil Climbs over $50: Can Investors Bank on a Recovery? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: The_Energy_Report
The price of a barrel of oil has almost doubled from its low of $28 at the start of the year, prompting speculation that a recovery is underway, which may result in the revival of companies in the exploration, production and services sectors that have foundered since prices collapsed in 2015.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 26, 2016
The Black Swan Spotter...Which Saw the Oil-Crash coming; now says the “Invisible Hand” will push Brent to $85 by Christmas / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
This is a long article...in summary:
The Short Story:
- $85 by Christmas 2016 sounds as far-fetched as the notion that when Oil was $100-Plus, it would crash!
- The Big Idea then, was that was a classic price bubble – and bubbles always bust
- That was based on a boring valuation for “Other-Than-Market-Value” (OTMV) done in line with very boring International Valuation Standards; nothing radical, no Black Magic, no Black Swans http://www.romacor.ro/legislatie/08-ivs2.pdf
- The “alleged” price-bubble, led “allegedly” to over-investment which led to over-supply
- That was probably thanks to central banks printing money to stimulate what Ludwig Von Mises called “mal-investment”, which is why you have central banks and “God’s Workers” ordained by Goldman Sachs
- The over-supply eventually caused a bust, predictably
- And then “over-investors” (and/or their banks), lost their shirts. That’s normal, it happens all the time; the only question is who pays; the latest idea of the Fed is the grand-children do.
- The model says bubble/bust is zero-sum and so the bust is over; because the supervisor of God’s Workers says so
- OTMV today appears to be about $85, so that’s where the price is headed now
- Unless shale oil comes back in a big way – that’s the only caveat.
Wednesday, May 04, 2016
Why China Is Really Dictating the Oil Supply Glut / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Ship tracking data from Bloomberg shows that 83 supertankers carrying around 166 million barrels of oil are headed to China, which has stockpiled an impressive 787,000 barrels a day in the first quarter of 2016—the highest stockpiling rate since 2014.
While the world was speculating about oil prices plunging to $20 and $10 per barrel, China was busy stockpiling its reserves.
Tuesday, May 03, 2016
Low Prices for Oil Cure Low Prices for Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: The_Energy_Report
Veteran investor Bob Moriarty discusses one company that is poised to benefit from the volatililty in the oil markets.
Wednesday, April 27, 2016
Crude Oil: See How Elliott Waves Prepare You for Trend Changes - Video / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
"Trend is your friend"? Yes -- but how do you know when a trend may end? Watch.
Back in February, when crude oil prices fell to $26 a barrel, you may remember a chorus of mainstream opinions suggesting that it had further to fall. Yet, oil prices shot up 60% since then.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Crude Oil Price Double Top or Further Rally? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $48.56 and initial downside target at $35.24) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Although crude oil increased after the market's open, approaching Thursday's high, the commodity gave up some gains in the following hours weakened by the strengthening U.S. dollar. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude closed another day under the resistance line. Will it be strong enough to stop oil bulls in the coming days?
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 23, 2016
Crude Oil Price Crash Triggering Global Instability, Trend Forecast 2016 / News_Letter / Crude Oil
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle NewsletterJan 17th, 2016 Issue # 2 Vol. 10
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 21, 2016
Crude Oil Complacency Climbs / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: AnyOption
US production at 18-month lows was partly behind the recent surge in crude oil prices following yet another report of building onshore inventories. Despite the veritable flood of crude oil prices hitting global markets, crude prices continue to rise amid rising speculation that key global producers will elect to increase production even further. Since the freeze deal fell through, Russia has underlined its doubts that any such agreement will be possible, potentially paving the way for OPEC members to further stray from a single policy, opting instead to put national interests ahead of economic rationality. While prices have jumped to the highest levels since November on new forecasts that anticipate a rebalancing of the market my 2017, complacency amongst traders continues to grow as problematic fundamental conditions remain intact.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 19, 2016
Gold and Crude Oil - What Can We Infer from This Relationship? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Although the world's largest oil-producing countries met this weekend in Doha, they failed to reach a deal to freeze output at Jan levels as Saudi deputy crown prince Mohammed bin Salman sustained earlier statement that Saudi Arabia would freeze the level of its oil production only if all other major producers (including Iran) did the same. Although Iran supported the freeze, the country didn't agree to cut production until it raises its output to around 4 million barrels per day (to the pre-sanctions levels). What does it mean for crude oil? In our opinion, such developments suggest a renewed battle for crude market share, which would likely translate into lower values of the commodity in the coming days or even weeks. Will our interesting ratios confirm this scenario? Let's jump right into charts (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com) and find out.
Friday, April 08, 2016
Crude Oil Price $85 Forecast By Christmas / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
After a 50 percent rally in oil prices between February and March, crude has retreated a bit as of late. The upcoming OPEC-Russia meeting in Doha looms over the markets, but few expect the outcome to have any material impact on supply and demand. Global supply still exceeds demand, but there are solid signs that the overhang is finally starting to ease. Storage levels are high, but are expected to come down.
Wednesday, April 06, 2016
The Outlook for Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Donald_W_Dony
Light crude oil prices (WTI) has remained in a downward trend since mid-2014. With its fresh new low in Q1, 2016 and price resistance now building at $42.40, the outlook remains negative.
The U.S. dollar's impact continues to play out against the commodity.
With the improving economic status of the U.S. coupled with a Fed agenda of gradual interest rate increases this year, the currency remains with a steady tailwind (Chart 1).
Wednesday, April 06, 2016
Crude Oil Price One-Day Rally or Something More / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Tuesday, crude oil moved lower after the market’s open weakened by an unexpected decline in monthly U.S. gasoline demand. Despite this drop, the commodity reversed and rebounded in the following hours. As a result, light crude gained 3.10% and invalidated earlier breakdown. What does it mean for oil bulls?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 31, 2016
Crude Oil Price Meets Support / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Tuesday, crude oil lost 2.06% ahead of the American Petroleum Institute's weekly inventory report. Thanks to this drop, light crude closed another day under $39, but reached important support zone. Will it encourage oil bulls to act in the coming days?
Tuesday, March 29, 2016
U.S. Lifted The Crude Oil Export Ban, And Exports Went…Down / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Just over three months after the authorities lifted the four-decade ban on crude oil exports, the U.S. has actually exported less this year than it did over the same period the year before, when the ban was still in place.
According to Clipper Data market intelligence cited by the Financial Times, we've seen a 5 percent decline in U.S. crude oil export volumes since the beginning of this year. The data suggests that on average we are exporting (waterborne) 325,000 barrels per day now, compared to 342,000 barrels per day during the first months of 2015.
Thursday, March 24, 2016
The Current Oil Price Rally Is Reaching Its Limits / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oil prices have climbed by about 50 percent from their February lows, topping $40 per barrel. But the rally could be reaching its limits, at least temporarily, as persistent oversupply and the prospect of new shale production caps any potential price increase.U.S. oil production has steadily lost ground over the past two quarters, with production falling more than a half million barrels per day since hitting a peak at nearly 9.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) in April 2015. American oil companies have gutted their budgets and have put off drilling plans, with many projecting absolute declines in 2016.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 22, 2016
Is This The End for Crude Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Sol_Palha
"The end is never as satisfying as the journey. To have achieved everything but to have done so without integrity and excitement is to have achieved nothing." ~ Anonymous
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 21, 2016
Crude Oil Price – North or South? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil lost 1.30% after unexpected increase in U.S. oil rig counts. As a result, light crude slipped under $42 and closed the day under the previously-broken 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. What’s next for the commodity?
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 21, 2016
Crude Oil Price Action & Forecast / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, Light Crude has seen a dramatic 35%+ increase in value. As the current price continue to flirt with $40 per barrel, the likelihood of a further price rise is on everyone’s mind. With recent lows near $26 per barrel, what is the possibility that oil will form a base above $30 and attempt a rally?
Historically, the 2009 low price for oil was $33.20. This level should be viewed as a key level of support for current price action. The recent price rotation below this level is a sign that oil prices are under extreme pressure in the current economic environment with a supply glut and slower than expected demand.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 17, 2016
Oil Price Won't Stage A Serious Rebound Until This Happens / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oil prices have shown signs of life over the past few weeks, as production declines in the U.S. raise expectations that the market is starting to adjust. As a result, Brent crude recently surpassed $40 per barrel for the first time in months.
A growling list of companies are capitulating, announcing production cuts for 2016. Continental Resources, for example, could see output fall by 10 percent. A range of other companies have made similar announcements in recent weeks. The energy world has been speculating about declines from U.S. shale, and the declines are finally starting to show up in the data.
Wednesday, March 16, 2016
Crude Oil Price Due for a Pit Stop / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Ed_Carlson
Crude gained $2.58 last week to close at 38.50 - on the declining trendline and the 50% retracement of the October decline. My bandwidth indicator has turned down indicating that the rally is long-in-the-tooth. On Friday, crude tested 39.00 which makes the February rally equal to 150% of the January rally; a natural stopping point.
Read full article... Read full article...