Category: Crude Oil
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, November 15, 2016
OPEC’s Bearish Report Provides Little Hope For Oil Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Just one day after the IEA warned the world could drown in oil if production does not fall beneath demand sometime soon, OPEC released a new market whammy, offering up the cartel’s production figures, which largely jive with figures reported by the IEA yesterday: OPEC has increased its oil production.
OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report revealed daily oil production for the cartel of 33.64 million barrels for October—up by 240,000 bpd on September—largely confirming the IEA’s report, although the international authority’s figure was a bit higher at 33.83 million bpd.
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Wednesday, November 09, 2016
Uncertainty about OPEC and US Election Leads to Oil Price Drop / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Jason_Hamlin
During the third quarter of 2016, global gold production dropped by 0.5%. Miners brought 846.8t onto the market versus 851.2t during Q3 of 2015. While this isn’t a huge decline, it marks the second consecutive quarter that gold production was down versus the previous year. The overall trend of plateauing output remains in place and has increased the odds that we are approaching, or have already reached, peak gold. The chart of annual mine production is shown below.
Wednesday, November 02, 2016
Can Oil Markets Survive An OPEC Implosion? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
A technical meeting that was supposed to iron out some wrinkles for a deal to cut oil production ended in acrimony over the weekend, and OPEC's effort at coordination could be at yet another impasse.
Following the Algiers agreement at the end of September, a tentative deal that called for a collective reduction in oil output in the range of 200,000 to 700,000 barrels per day, OPEC scheduled a meeting on October 28-29 in Vienna to put some meat on the bones of the pact so that it could be officially sealed at the end of November.
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Friday, October 28, 2016
What's Next for Crude Oil; Higher Prices or Crash / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Sol_Palha
"If the doors of perception were cleansed everything would appear to man as it is, infinite. For man has closed himself up, till he sees all things thru chinks of his cavern." ~ William Blake
2016 started with all the Drs of Gloom stating that oil was heading lower and many even predicted that it would trade down to $10.00. It was kind of interesting to watch this circus as there is a saying the cure for low prices is usually low prices. It would have made sense to take a firm stance against oil when it was trading above $100, but not when it was trading in the $30.00 ranges. These same experts were busy proclaiming higher prices when oil was trading north of $100.00. Only when oil was close to putting in a bottom, did they muster the courage to issue even lower prices; they would have been well served by simply keeping quiet. Experts were all trying to outdo each other; each one is releasing lower prices and a gloomier scenario. Here are some examples of the stories being put out at the time:
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Tuesday, October 25, 2016
Cycle of Low Crude Prices Nearing an End, Says Saudi Oil Minister / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: The_Energy_Report
Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih declared the cycle of low crude prices is nearing an end as the oil market strengthens in recent weeks.
"Market fundamentals, in terms of supply and demand, have begun to improve," Falih stated on Sunday at a press conference with Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak, adding: "We are optimistic that oil prices will continue to improve in the future."
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Tuesday, October 25, 2016
Where Will Crude Oil Price Head Next? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $53.22 and initial price target at $46) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil gained 0.43% after Russia renewed its commitment to joining a producers' output freeze. Thanks to this news, light crude bounced off session’s lows and closed the week slightly below $51. But did this move change anything in the overall picture of the commodity?
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Wednesday, October 12, 2016
Gold and Crude Oil - General Stock Market Links / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Without a doubt the most important event of the recent month (or even the recent years) was unexpected OPEC’s decision to limit its production to a range of 32.5-33.0 million barrels per day. The agreement reached in Algiers (which is expected to be implemented this year) improved oil investors’ sentiment and pushed the price of crude oil above the barrier of $50. But is it enough to break above the Jun peak? Is it possible that the relationships between crude oil, gold and the general stock market give us more clues about future crude oil’s moves?
Tuesday, October 11, 2016
For How Long Can OPEC Talk Up Oil Prices? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Not a day passes without OPEC making oil and gas headlines, and today is surely no exception. Seemingly in lockstep with OPEC, the market is once again pacified on the promise that changes to the global oil supply glut are a' comin'. Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal quoted anonymous sources close to the matter who had it on good authority that the Saudi's were willing to cut "up to" 400,000 barrels per day (and that they had planned to do so all along, with or without an OPEC agreement). We can assume this figure is off August or September levels, which are near-record highs for the oil-rich country.
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Saturday, October 08, 2016
Crude's Post-OPEC Rally "Bears Watching" But "Natural Gas is More Interesting Market at this Juncture" / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
New insights from Chief Energy Analyst Steve Craig
Elliott Wave International's Steve Craig offers you his latest insight on price trends in crude oil and natural gas.
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Thursday, October 06, 2016
Crude Oil Price Double Top or Further Rally? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective. In other words, we think that taking profits off the table and closing the previous long positions is a good idea.
On Tuesday, crude oil gave some of earlier gains after news that Iran and Libya have continued to increase production. In these circumstances, light crude slipped to the previously-broken resistance zone, but then closed the day above it. Is this a verification of the breakout?
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Wednesday, September 28, 2016
Where Will Oil Prices Go After Algiers? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Saudi Arabia and Iran may yet come to terms on some sort of production arrangement, but the outcome of the negotiations in Algeria this week may not do much to rescue oil prices. Following the media spectacle, the oil markets may have to shift their attention back to the supply and demand fundamentals, which are not reassuring.
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Wednesday, September 28, 2016
Crude Oil Bull Market Correction / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Ed_Carlson
Crude gained $1.45/bbl. last week closing at 44.48 even after a $1.84 loss on Friday. Since the August high, crude looks like a descending triangle (bearish). The upper trendline passes through 46.75 this week. Support is at 43.25. A break of support opens the door for a decline to 38.25. The weekly Coppock Curve did confirm the June high so look for higher highs in the future. However, new lows are expected once wave C has completed.
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Thursday, September 15, 2016
Crude Oil Prices: Investors Getting Comfortable with New Levels? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nicholas_Kitonyi
When the price of oil breached above the $50 level, everyone thought alas, we could be hitting $70 before the end of the year. It was a steady rally that appeared to have turned the tide completely. However, things did not turn out as earlier predicted. Within no time, oil prices dropped again below $50 and have since failed to reach those levels. If anything, there are fresh fears that the price of crude oil could drop below $40 if the production levels remain unchecked.
Thursday, September 15, 2016
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 September Update / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
At the start of this year the prevailing mood in the oil market was not just one of doom and gloom but of catastrophe as the oil price sunk below $30, skidding by the middle of February to virtually touch $25, a period during which many prominent analysts and investment banks such as Goldman Sachs all of whom were bearish on the prospects for oil price this year even suggesting that the oil price could sink to as low as $10 (Standard Chartered) which meant that the oil producers, the frackers and even a string of nations such as Russia, Nigeria and Venezuela were on the fast track towards going bust as their oil profits that financed state spending budget deficits evaporated.
Wednesday, September 14, 2016
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 Update / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
At the start of the year the prevailing mood in the oil market was not just one of doom and gloom but of catastrophe as the oil price sunk below $30, skidding by the middle of February to virtually touch $25, a period during which many prominent analysts and investment banks such as Goldman Sachs all of whom were bearish on the prospects for oil price this year even suggesting that the oil price could sink to as low as $10 (Standard Chartered) which meant that the oil producers, the frackers and even a string of nations such as Russia, Nigeria and Venezuela were on the fast track towards going bust in as their oil profits that financed state spending budget deficits evaporated.
Tuesday, September 13, 2016
Gold and United States Imported Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: DeviantInvestor
The US has imported crude oil for many decades. The following data (1970 – 2015) comes from the Energy Information Administration of the US government. This data shows reported barrels of crude oil imported into the US.
(Note: This is not a comprehensive analysis of imported energy, nor does it compensate for exports of crude oil, imports or exports of coal, natural gas or other energy sources.)
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Thursday, September 08, 2016
The Next Sector To Recover From The Oil Price Crash / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oilfield services, shipbuilders and other industries that rose with the pre-2014 oil price boom have had it hard. Since barrel rates fell, their previous patrons have become uninterested in doling out major purchase orders, leaving oil and gas equipment manufacturers without revenues.
A recent report by Arkansas Online says the energy industry’s support sector could feel the effects of low oil prices for up to two years after the current bear market recovers.
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Thursday, August 25, 2016
OPEC’s Output Freeze: What Has Changed Since Doha? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
It’s possible that OPEC is crying wolf with hints of an output freeze next month in Algiers; but it’s also possible that they are ramping up production to take the sting out of a freeze. This is a delicate balancing act that the Saudis need to play very carefully.
The official chatter is that the OPEC meeting in Algeria from September 26 to 28 could conclude with an agreement to freeze production by the member nations, with even Russia joining forces in a freeze that may prevent further oil price erosion. But everyone’s a bit gun-shy after the false hopes of the last round in Doha—even if a freeze at levels that existed then wouldn’t have meant much either—and it’s hard to blame them. The question is, how many times can the Saudis cry wolf without forever losing the ability to leverage this chatter to affect a rise in oil prices?
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Wednesday, August 24, 2016
Crude and the Commodity Cycle / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Tony_Caldaro
Over the years we have written many times about the 34-year commodity cycle. Generally commodities rise as a group in a 13-year bull market, which is followed by a 21-year bear market. Each specific commodity has its own particular cycle which generally fits within the broader 34-year commodity cycle.
Monday, August 22, 2016
WTI Crude Oil Pattern Still on Target for Higher Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Ken_Ticehurst
Since our last article WTI has behaved perfectly, clearing all our daily hurdles. Our longer term patterns show the strong possibility of a rise to $60+ during the second half of this year before a further decline in to 2017.
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