Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
U.S. Dollar Trend Forecast 2015 - Video / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Will the US Dollar collapse in 2015? Or will the bull market soar to new highs? Find out in this video analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast.
Sunday, December 14, 2014
U.S. Dollar Collapse? USD Index Trend Forecast 2015 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
For as many years as I can remember and 2014 has been no exception, the most vocal mantra that can often be heard is one of warnings of an always imminent U.S. Dollar collapse as a consequence of a myriad of highly convincing arguments such as a soaring debt mountain, deficit, rampant money printing, demographics, rise of China, death of the petro-dollar etc.. However the dollar trend of recent years shows that the dollar in actual fact is little changed, where even the recent breakout only put the USD barely 4% outside of its multi-year trading trading range of between 85 to 79 and still within its longer-term trading range of 89 to 75.
Friday, December 12, 2014
Bitcoins - Cryptocurrencies and a Wider Regression Theorem / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: MISES
Peter St. Onge writes: The debate whether or not cryptocurrencies are “money” has put a spotlight on the Menger-Mises Regression Theorem. As stated, the theorem posits that a non-fiat money must have had value before it became a money. Some have used currencies’ lack of antecedent value as knocking it off the money pedestal or as forcing cryptocurrencies to ignominiously piggyback on fiat currencies’ own regressions.
Friday, December 12, 2014
Spare U.S. Dollars / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Last week I wrote that contrary to the prevailing mood US dollar strength could reverse at any time. This week I look at another aspect of the dollar, which almost certainly will become a significant source of supply: a global shift out of it by foreign holders.
As well as multinational corporations that account in dollars, there are non-US entities that use dollars purely for trade. And so long as governments intervene in currency markets, governments end up with those trade dollars in their foreign reserves. Some of these governments are now pushing hard to replace the dollar, having seen its debasement, which is beyond their control. This has upset nations like China, and that is before we speculate about any geopolitical angle.
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Friday, December 12, 2014
USD Strength Could Trigger Emerging Market Crisis Sending it Even Higher / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MahiFX
It seems impossible for the USD to move in any right direction for emerging markets with it blamed for causing inflation when it falls and now it’s the culprit for a potential crisis in some developing countries which have borrowed in the US currency. The bad news for them is that the greenback is likely to carry on strengthening.
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Friday, December 12, 2014
How the Rising U.S. Dollar Could Trigger the Next Global Financial Crisis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Mauldin
This week’s Outside the Box continues with a theme that I and my colleague Worth Wray have been hammering on for some time: the very real potential for a rising dollar to trigger the next global financial crisis.
We are concerned about the consequences of multi-speed economic growth around the world and the growing divergence between major central banks. In our opinion, if these trends persist, they likely mean (1) a major US dollar rally, (2) a rapid unwind of QE-induced capital flows to emerging markets, (3) a hard slide in fragile emerging-market and commodity-exporter currencies, and (4) financial shocks capable of ushering in a new global financial crisis.
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Thursday, December 11, 2014
GBP/USD - Breakout Or Fakeout? / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Nadia_Simmons
Earlier today, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the initial jobless claims in the week ending December 6 dropped by 3,000 to 294,000, beating forecast. Additionally, the U.S. Commerce Department showed that retail sales increased by 0.7% last month, beating expectations for a gain of 0.4%, while core retail sales (without automobile sales), increased by 0.5% in November, surpassing forecasts for a 0.1% gain. These bullish numbers supported the greenback and pushed GBP/USD lower, but the pair is still trading close to the key resistance line. What's next?
Thursday, December 11, 2014
Bitcoin Might Not Be Money, but Cryptocurrencies are the Way of the Future / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Kevin Dowd, a long-time friend and eminent free-banking authority, set his sights on Bitcoin in the book he published this summer: New Private Monies: A Bit Part Player?. His work delivers a refreshingly accurate and straightforward assessment of Bitcoin, ignoring the hype which surrounds it.
Thursday, December 11, 2014
U.S. Dollar Long/Short Position / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
In the context of the gold price, many relate the net long/short position in the US.$ as an influence on the gold price. To a small extent this may be true, but not, in our opinion, to an extent that actually affects the gold price.
Monday, December 08, 2014
What a Reserve Currency Should Look Like / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: MISES
Patrick Barron writes: Much has been written lately, including by me, about the coming rejection of the dollar as the primary reserve currency of the world’s most important central banks.
My prediction is based upon two things: one, that the Federal Reserve is controlled by inflationist politicians whose main goal is to monetize the federal government’s vast annual budget deficits; and, two, that the rest of the world is getting fed up with holding ever more fiat dollars of decreasing purchasing power. In the first instance, as long as the Fed can get away with printing dollars that ultimately are used to purchase federal government debt, there is no reason for it to cease federal debt monetization, or for the federal government itself to balance its budget.
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Saturday, December 06, 2014
Current US Dollar Trend Defined / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
Performance of the US Dollar Index has been stellar and is developing an interesting pattern that once complete around mid to late March 2015 will indicate the final upper target expected around August 2015. This report has a lot of technical information and might be considered “rather dry” to most, but I encourage the reader to wade through this, chew on it and digest it. For those who want the direct forecast up front, avoid commodities and go long S&P 500 type of Exchange Traded Funds. By simply being conservative, 10-15% can still be made between now and August 2015.
Thursday, December 04, 2014
The World's Strongest Currency? / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: Since June, the U.S. dollar has been unbeatable... It has beaten every major currency, except one.
Specifically, the U.S. dollar has outperformed 30 out of the 31 major world currencies in that time.
But what is the one currency that is stronger than the dollar? Which country is beating the U.S. now?
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Thursday, December 04, 2014
Japan Abenomics From Faith to Failure to Stop Deflation / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: EWI
Why the biggest monetary stimulus effort in the world did NOT stop deflation in its tracks
When Shinzo Abe became the Prime Minister of Japan in December 2012, he was regarded with the kind of reverence that politicians dream about. He was featured in a hit pop song ("Abeno Mix"), hailed as a "samurai warrior," and featured on the May 2013 The Economist cover as none other than Superman.
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Thursday, December 04, 2014
US Dollar Up/Down Trends Lasts 6-10 Years and Have Significant % Moves / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jas_Jain
The index used, Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Major Currencies, is published by St. Louis Fed and is very highly correlated with DXY.
The central banks policies and govt policies, announced and unannounced, and agreements, as in 1980s, play a big role in currency moves. The latest example is Japanese Yen. However, speculators and momentum players (trend followers) are the primary drivers of trends that last several years until extremes, not justified by economic fundamentals, are reached and reversals follow.
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Wednesday, December 03, 2014
Commodity price weakness could be game changer for Currencies / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: MahiFX
The recent rout in oil prices and that of a number of other key commodities could have some surprising ramifications for the forex markets next year.
The obvious victims so far have been the commodity currencies, some of which have been hammered. If commodity prices are entering a long-term bear market that could have significant ramifications for monetary policy in the US, UK, Eurozone, Japan and other developed countries.
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Wednesday, December 03, 2014
AUD/USD Approaches Solid Support / Currencies / Austrailia
By: Nadia_Simmons
The Reserve Bank of Australia left its benchmark interest rate at a record-low of 2.50%, which pushed the Australian dollar higher against the greenback. As a result, AUD/USD bounced off yesterday’s fresh 2014 low, but will we see further rally?
In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified - summary:
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Wednesday, December 03, 2014
Bitcoin Price Strong Move Around the Corner? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
In short: no speculative positions.
Tim Draper, the venture capitalist who bought almost 30,000 bitcoins off the U.S. government during the auction of the coins seized from the black market Silk Road, has shared what made him believe in the cryptocurrency, we read on the Wall Street Journal website:
Read full article... Read full article...One event that inspired venture capitalist Tim Draper to amass a huge stash of bitcoin was the same one that turned other investors away.
Monday, December 01, 2014
Is Bitcoin the Future? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: John_Mauldin
Bitcoin is a topic of discussion almost everywhere I go. My introduction to Bitcoin came when I was speaking at a gold conference in Palm Springs and three bright-eyed, bushy-tailed college students approached me with a video camera and asked for my thoughts on Bitcoin. Noting my confusion, they began to evangelistically espouse the virtues of Bitcoin and tell me how it would save us from the evils of the Federal Reserve. I kept from rolling my eyes (you do want to encourage passion in the young) and mentioned a meeting that I had to go to – at that very moment as it turned out.
Sunday, November 30, 2014
US Dollar Index and Crude Oil Analysis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
US Dollar Index
The US dollar has surged in recent months breaking some obvious resistance levels. This has brought out many calls for an even bigger move up. While this is possible, I suspect a big fake out move is in play. Let's investigate.
Firstly, let's begin with the yearly chart of the US dollar index to help put things in perspective.
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Thursday, November 27, 2014
ECB tentatively edges closer to QE in 2015; more EUR weakness likely / Currencies / Euro
By: MahiFX
The characterisation of Europe as “elderly and haggard” by Pope Francis is an accurate one, but on December 4 the European Central Bank could lay the groundwork to try and revitalise the region's sagging economy.
If was down to European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, the Eurozone would already be on the receiving end of a substantial quantitative easing programme and likely the EUR would be even weaker than it is now – but Draghi's time could yet come, as early as December 4th.
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