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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Currencies

Friday, November 22, 2013

U.S. Dollar Index ETF Trading Strategy / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We all know quantitative easing devalues the Dollar but contrary to that general statement it looks as though we could see the dollar index continue to rise for a few more weeks.

If we analyze the chart of the Dollar ETF (UUP) it is clear that the short term momentum has turned up. The break above the down trend line and recent bounce off support bodes well for the dollar index.

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Currencies

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

USDCAD Forex Analysis – Triangle In Progress / Currencies / Canadian $

By: Gregor_Horvat

USDCAD reversed lower at the end of last week from that trendline connected from July highs, which suggests that rally from 1.0180 was corrective leg. If that is the case then pair could be forming a bigger and complex correction than we firstly thought. We are now observing idea of a triangle with wave E underway back to 1.0300. This will be a final leg in the pattern, so be aware of a bullish period after completed pattern.

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Currencies

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

When Will the Japanese Yen be Ready to Fall Again? / Currencies / Japanese Yen

By: Submissions

Adam Lemon writes: The biggest story in Forex over the past 12 months – or to put it another way, the most profitable story in Forex over the past 12 months – was the dramatic weakening in both the JPY and the AUD.

Leaving the AUD to one side and focusing on JPY, which is more liquid and at the heart of the story, the narrative went something like this: Japan is in trouble, facing a future with an ageing, shrinking population and a frightened, unproductive younger generation traumatized by years of stagnation. Constitutionally unwilling to countenance mass immigration, Japan has no choice but to try to inflate away its problems by engineering a dramatic depreciation of its currency.

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Currencies

Monday, November 18, 2013

US Dollar Index USD Rally Forecast / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Gregor_Horvat

We believe that USD Index has now turned bullish after recent impulsive rise and breakout out of a downward channel. This breakout is important sign for a change in trend, even if just temporary. Based on a big picture with a triangle, we think that rise from 79.00 is wave D that will unfold in three legs towards 83 maybe even 84.00 region in weeks ahead.

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Currencies

Friday, November 15, 2013

Currency Wars Redux – is USD next? / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Submissions

Who wants a strong currency? If that question was for an opinion poll of finance ministers and central bankers the response would be a firm no. But in reality no poll is needed. The last couple of weeks’ action has spoken louder than words.

Forex traders were once again reminded that when a currency makes strong gains the chances of verbal or monetary intervention are probably not far off. Losses on long positions can swiftly follow. Those long USD should be cautious.

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Currencies

Thursday, November 14, 2013

The One Dollar Euro / Currencies / Euro

By: Andrew_McKillop

NOT A CENT MORE
In the years preceding the introduction of the euro dozens of meetings, conferences, books and PhD theses were focused on what rate against the dollar would be optimal. The favored figure was $1.17 but given today's macroeconomic, fiscal and geopolitical context $1 would suffice. To be sure, when the ECB has to raise interest rates, this may push the euro back up. Conversely, an euro held at an artificially high rate against the dollar can only further intensify Europe's economic slump and deflation crisis, and the directly related “bad bank” crisis.

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Currencies

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Why I Sell the U.S. Dollar: From Dollar Strength to Dollar Weakness / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Axel_Merk

Q3 of 2013 marked a peak and reversal of direction for the dollar. The notable strength in the dollar during Q2 turned into an equally prominent weakness in Q3 compared to a basket of foreign currencies. All of the G10 currencies strengthened against the dollar during Q3, while the price of gold rose more than 7%. See attached chart for the performance of the U.S. Dollar Index for the year through 10/31/2013.

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Currencies

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Elliott Wave Counts Suggests EUR/USD Heading Lower / Currencies / Euro

By: Gregor_Horvat

The EUR/USD reversed sharply to the downside in the last few days, clearly in five waves from above 1.3800 with a daily and weekly close price beneath the channel line connected from July lows. This break indicates a change in trend, and possible completion of a larger three wave rally in wave E. But, as always we are focused on minimum expectations for the next few days and weeks, and that is a three wave decline from the top which is also expected on the alternate count which shows an incomplete wave E from 2012 low.

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Currencies

Sunday, November 10, 2013

Large Speculators turn Bullish on US Dollar Bets in Forex Futures data / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: CountingPips

The latest data for the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report was released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and showed that large futures speculators turned bullish on the US dollar last week after four straight weeks of bearish positions.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $7.02 billion as of Tuesday November 5th. This was a weekly change of $10.17 billion from the total position of $-3.146 billion that was registered on October 29th, according to data from Reuters that calculates this amount by the total of US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

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Currencies

Tuesday, November 05, 2013

British Pound GBP/USD: Weakness Could Resume After Rally to 1.6000 - 1.6050 / Currencies / British Pound

By: Gregor_Horvat

GBP/USD reversed sharply lower last week through 1.6000 with very sharp and aggressive sell off on Thursday, so it seems that decline from 1.6250 is unfolding in five waves. With that said, we suspect that pair will move even lower in this week.

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Currencies

Monday, November 04, 2013

USD Index and US Treasury Notes Suggest More EUR Weakness / Currencies / Euro

By: Gregor_Horvat

A sharp reversal from the highs could be an early sign for a bearish trend on EURUSD which sooner or later will occur if we consider that rally from 1.2050 low is corrective. A decline from 1.3832 made last week looks impulsive so based on minimum expectations EURUSD will now move down in three legs, but ideally this is a start of a significant EUR weakness in impulsive fashion.

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Currencies

Sunday, November 03, 2013

Large Forex Speculators Were Bearish on US Dollar Into Late October Bottom, COT Report / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: CountingPips

The latest data for the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report was released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and showed that large futures speculators turned bearish on the US dollar on October 8th and then registered three straight weeks of bearish positions through October 22nd.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, had an overall US dollar short position totaling $-3.64 billion as of Tuesday October 22nd. This was a weekly change of $-2.4 billion from the total position of $-1.24 billion that was registered on October 15th, according to data from Reuters that calculates this amount by the total of US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

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Currencies

Saturday, November 02, 2013

U.S. Dollar Surge Implications / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Toby_Connor

A rather interesting development occurred on Friday, and one that I wasn't really expecting. The dollar sliced right through its intermediate trend line on its first attempt. I thought for sure we would see some kind of pullback from that trend line before a break. In my opinion this signals that there are a lot of people caught on the wrong side of this market.

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Currencies

Friday, November 01, 2013

USD-JPY Could Be A Good Buy If US Bonds Will Be Trading Lower / Currencies / Japanese Yen

By: Gregor_Horvat

On the 5 year US notes we can count five waves up from the lows so sooner or later larger downward pullback will occur in three legs. This means that US yield will should be moving to the upside which is supportive for the USDJPY.

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Currencies

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

U.S. Dollar Long-term View / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

I finally had to look at the monthly chart on the Dollar to get a handle on its position.  I identified the Dollar being in a triangle pattern prior to the low in 2011.  At that time, I surmised that we were looking at an Intermediate Wave (E).  It was an easy mistake to make, since it had escaped the lower trendline as it typical of a Wave (E).  However, having turned back at both the top and bottom trendline subsequently gave me pause.  Looking at the long-term pattern suggests that the triangle may just be ending now with a second break of the lower trendline for Wave (E). 

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Currencies

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Why Do Governments Devalue Their Currency Rates? / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: Sahil_Hafeez

Currency Devaluation:
Currency devaluation occurs when a country allows the value of its currency to drop in relation to other currencies.

Why do countries let their currency fall in value?
Almost all the countries of the world have devalued their currencies time to time to achieve certain economic objectives. Following are the main objectives of devaluation:

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Currencies

Monday, October 28, 2013

EUR-CAD Retracement Would Be Opportunity To Long Positions / Currencies / Euro

By: Gregor_Horvat

Last week EURCAD has been published after very strong EUR against the USD and weak CAD against the same currency. In fact, EURCAD has much better and cleaner structure and EURUSD, so keep an eye on that pair may not be a bad idea. We however need some deeper retracement before we may look for any long entry. I will keep an eye on three wave retracement which is normally a, b, c, back to base channel line. If we get it then we will look for an opportunity to take long positions on EURCAD.

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Currencies

Sunday, October 27, 2013

Large Forex Speculators Cut US Dollar Bullish Bets to 7-month Low / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Submissions

CountingPips writes: The weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, not published for close to a month due to the partial US government shutdown, was released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and showed that large futures traders & speculators continued to decrease their bullish bets of the US dollar for a third week in a row on October 1st.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, cut their overall US dollar long positions to a total of $692.8 million as of Tuesday October 1st. This was a decline of $-2.89 billion from the total long position of $3.58 billion that was registered on September 24th, according to data from Reuters that calculates this amount by the total of US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

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Currencies

Thursday, October 24, 2013

GBP's Outlook Still Bright, but Beware Lurking Gremlins / Currencies / British Pound

By: Submissions

Justin Pugsley writes: Amongst a number of weaknesses such as a huge current account deficit the UK also has an inflation problem, which will eventually take its toll on GBP. For the time being at least a robust real estate market and recovering economy will be strongly supportive of Sterling.

The UK has long had an inflation prone economy. Today is no different. Consider the UK has an inflation rate of 2.7%. That's low by historical standards, but very high compared with its trading partners. And relative is important. Because in the US it is 1.5%, the Eurozone 1.1% and Japan 0.8%. That means GBP is losing its purchasing power at a faster rate than most of its trading partners meaning that in the long run it is a negative for the UK currency.

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Currencies

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

How Long Until the U.S. Dollar Loses Its Reserve Currency Status? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: DailyGainsLetter

Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: As Congress has come to a decision about the debt ceiling and kicked the can a few months down the road, I hear a significant amount of noise about the U.S. dollar losing its reserve currency status.

With this, I ask: could this really happen anytime soon?

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