Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, December 23, 2014
Divergence and Deflation Dminated Forex Markets in 2014 / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: MahiFX
For the forex markets 2014 can be largely summed up in just two words: Divergence and Deflation. It was also the year of the USD, which enjoyed a spectacular rally.
The USD index was around 80 at the end of December 2014 and by the end of December 2015 it was 89.60 with it really finding its momentum from June onwards.
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Sunday, December 21, 2014
BItcoin and Altcoins in 2015 / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mark_Blair
One: Bitcoin has been stuck for a while in a sort of ‘deflationary spiral.’ This means that commercial adoption by companies like Microsoft and Time has kept Btc’s price DOWN: no one wants to sell at this price coin that they (a) paid more for, and (b) can clearly see will rise greatly in value.
The Mining Thing – whereby miners tend to sell now rather than later (to pay for electricity) – remains an aspect.
Saturday, December 20, 2014
The Link between the Ruble and Keynes / Currencies / Russia
By: Steve_H_Hanke
On March 3, 2014, the United States went to war with Russia. That’s when the U.S. first imposed sanctions. And, yes, sanctions are nothing more than war by non-military means. Then, on November 11 Russia committed a major misstep. It floated the ruble. Since then, the ruble hasn’t floated on a sea of tranquility. It has plunged in lockstep with oil — by about 25% and its volatility has soared to around 65%.
The ruble’s plunge means that Russian imports will be more expensive and exports more competitive. This combination will help keep Russia’s current account positive, which will offset some of Russia’s massive capital flight.
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Friday, December 19, 2014
Cheap Oil Good for Consuming Countries, but won't help EUR or JPY / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: MahiFX
Cheap oil is good for the economies of the US, Europe and Japan and the recent plunge in prices should support the USD, but for the EUR and JPY the dynamics are more nuanced.
The interpretation many commentators are drawing from plunging oil and commodity prices is that the global economy is slowing and that deflation will become more persistent. However, if the global economy is slowing – cheaper oil will be a good tonic. And low energy prices are actually a form of good deflation for consuming countries.
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Thursday, December 18, 2014
Euro Succumbs to ECB QE Expectations and FOMC / Currencies / Euro
By: Dan_Norcini
Now that the dust from today's wild ride, we can take a look-see how the Euro fared. In watching the initial reaction to the actual FOMC statement itself, the Euro began to move well off its session lows. It reflected the confusion that was in the minds of traders (there was certainly a lot of that in my mind when I read the statement) who felt that it struck an extremely dovish theme at initial glance. That threw same water on the fire for those expecting a sooner rather than later shift in policy expectations for the FOMC in regards to raising interest rates.
Thursday, December 18, 2014
John Williams: A Downhill Run for the U.S. Dollar in 2015 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: The_Gold_Report
Rosy GDP numbers may have cheered the masses, but John Williams of ShadowStats.com says we're a long way from prosperity. In this interview with The Gold Report, Williams debunks the myth of economic recovery and warns that we still have serious debts to settle. That is why he is recommending caution in 2015 to preserve purchasing power and maintain your standard of living.
The Gold Report: Your hyperinflation report predicted 2014 would be dominated by economic distress, financial crisis and panics. Were you surprised by the performance of the economy this year?
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Tuesday, December 16, 2014
U.S. Dollar Trend Forecast 2015 - Video / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Will the US Dollar collapse in 2015? Or will the bull market soar to new highs? Find out in this video analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast.
Sunday, December 14, 2014
U.S. Dollar Collapse? USD Index Trend Forecast 2015 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
For as many years as I can remember and 2014 has been no exception, the most vocal mantra that can often be heard is one of warnings of an always imminent U.S. Dollar collapse as a consequence of a myriad of highly convincing arguments such as a soaring debt mountain, deficit, rampant money printing, demographics, rise of China, death of the petro-dollar etc.. However the dollar trend of recent years shows that the dollar in actual fact is little changed, where even the recent breakout only put the USD barely 4% outside of its multi-year trading trading range of between 85 to 79 and still within its longer-term trading range of 89 to 75.
Friday, December 12, 2014
Bitcoins - Cryptocurrencies and a Wider Regression Theorem / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: MISES
Peter St. Onge writes: The debate whether or not cryptocurrencies are “money” has put a spotlight on the Menger-Mises Regression Theorem. As stated, the theorem posits that a non-fiat money must have had value before it became a money. Some have used currencies’ lack of antecedent value as knocking it off the money pedestal or as forcing cryptocurrencies to ignominiously piggyback on fiat currencies’ own regressions.
Friday, December 12, 2014
Spare U.S. Dollars / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Last week I wrote that contrary to the prevailing mood US dollar strength could reverse at any time. This week I look at another aspect of the dollar, which almost certainly will become a significant source of supply: a global shift out of it by foreign holders.
As well as multinational corporations that account in dollars, there are non-US entities that use dollars purely for trade. And so long as governments intervene in currency markets, governments end up with those trade dollars in their foreign reserves. Some of these governments are now pushing hard to replace the dollar, having seen its debasement, which is beyond their control. This has upset nations like China, and that is before we speculate about any geopolitical angle.
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Friday, December 12, 2014
USD Strength Could Trigger Emerging Market Crisis Sending it Even Higher / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MahiFX
It seems impossible for the USD to move in any right direction for emerging markets with it blamed for causing inflation when it falls and now it’s the culprit for a potential crisis in some developing countries which have borrowed in the US currency. The bad news for them is that the greenback is likely to carry on strengthening.
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Friday, December 12, 2014
How the Rising U.S. Dollar Could Trigger the Next Global Financial Crisis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Mauldin
This week’s Outside the Box continues with a theme that I and my colleague Worth Wray have been hammering on for some time: the very real potential for a rising dollar to trigger the next global financial crisis.
We are concerned about the consequences of multi-speed economic growth around the world and the growing divergence between major central banks. In our opinion, if these trends persist, they likely mean (1) a major US dollar rally, (2) a rapid unwind of QE-induced capital flows to emerging markets, (3) a hard slide in fragile emerging-market and commodity-exporter currencies, and (4) financial shocks capable of ushering in a new global financial crisis.
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Thursday, December 11, 2014
GBP/USD - Breakout Or Fakeout? / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Nadia_Simmons
Earlier today, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the initial jobless claims in the week ending December 6 dropped by 3,000 to 294,000, beating forecast. Additionally, the U.S. Commerce Department showed that retail sales increased by 0.7% last month, beating expectations for a gain of 0.4%, while core retail sales (without automobile sales), increased by 0.5% in November, surpassing forecasts for a 0.1% gain. These bullish numbers supported the greenback and pushed GBP/USD lower, but the pair is still trading close to the key resistance line. What's next?
Thursday, December 11, 2014
Bitcoin Might Not Be Money, but Cryptocurrencies are the Way of the Future / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Kevin Dowd, a long-time friend and eminent free-banking authority, set his sights on Bitcoin in the book he published this summer: New Private Monies: A Bit Part Player?. His work delivers a refreshingly accurate and straightforward assessment of Bitcoin, ignoring the hype which surrounds it.
Thursday, December 11, 2014
U.S. Dollar Long/Short Position / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
In the context of the gold price, many relate the net long/short position in the US.$ as an influence on the gold price. To a small extent this may be true, but not, in our opinion, to an extent that actually affects the gold price.
Monday, December 08, 2014
What a Reserve Currency Should Look Like / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: MISES
Patrick Barron writes: Much has been written lately, including by me, about the coming rejection of the dollar as the primary reserve currency of the world’s most important central banks.
My prediction is based upon two things: one, that the Federal Reserve is controlled by inflationist politicians whose main goal is to monetize the federal government’s vast annual budget deficits; and, two, that the rest of the world is getting fed up with holding ever more fiat dollars of decreasing purchasing power. In the first instance, as long as the Fed can get away with printing dollars that ultimately are used to purchase federal government debt, there is no reason for it to cease federal debt monetization, or for the federal government itself to balance its budget.
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Saturday, December 06, 2014
Current US Dollar Trend Defined / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
Performance of the US Dollar Index has been stellar and is developing an interesting pattern that once complete around mid to late March 2015 will indicate the final upper target expected around August 2015. This report has a lot of technical information and might be considered “rather dry” to most, but I encourage the reader to wade through this, chew on it and digest it. For those who want the direct forecast up front, avoid commodities and go long S&P 500 type of Exchange Traded Funds. By simply being conservative, 10-15% can still be made between now and August 2015.
Thursday, December 04, 2014
The World's Strongest Currency? / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: Since June, the U.S. dollar has been unbeatable... It has beaten every major currency, except one.
Specifically, the U.S. dollar has outperformed 30 out of the 31 major world currencies in that time.
But what is the one currency that is stronger than the dollar? Which country is beating the U.S. now?
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Thursday, December 04, 2014
Japan Abenomics From Faith to Failure to Stop Deflation / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: EWI
Why the biggest monetary stimulus effort in the world did NOT stop deflation in its tracks
When Shinzo Abe became the Prime Minister of Japan in December 2012, he was regarded with the kind of reverence that politicians dream about. He was featured in a hit pop song ("Abeno Mix"), hailed as a "samurai warrior," and featured on the May 2013 The Economist cover as none other than Superman.
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Thursday, December 04, 2014
US Dollar Up/Down Trends Lasts 6-10 Years and Have Significant % Moves / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jas_Jain
The index used, Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Major Currencies, is published by St. Louis Fed and is very highly correlated with DXY.
The central banks policies and govt policies, announced and unannounced, and agreements, as in 1980s, play a big role in currency moves. The latest example is Japanese Yen. However, speculators and momentum players (trend followers) are the primary drivers of trends that last several years until extremes, not justified by economic fundamentals, are reached and reversals follow.
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