Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, November 29, 2013
Hyperinflation of The Reserve Currency / Currencies / HyperInflation
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
The recent rise in interest rates, in response to the threat of Fed tapering, foreshadows the unavoidable demise for the dollar. Not only did the rise in rates have an immediate effect on the housing recovery, it also indirectly exposed the system to another vulnerability, that is, the Fed is not only the lender of last resort but will be the lender to the spender of last resort - the US Treasury.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 29, 2013
Bitcoin Anonymously Genius / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Pravda
Young digital currency Bitcoin has been gaining popularity rapidly. It is believed that it may even make the US dollar move over as time goes by. However, there is one embarrassing detail: the currency circulates on condition of anonymity, which means that it can be used for criminal purposes. Bitcoin is used in transaction of drug traffickers, casino owners and killers.
Thursday, November 28, 2013
Bitcoins Tulip Mania i-Bubble Claims First Victim / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK broadcast media has been full of the story of how a bitcoin miner threw away his hard drive that reportedly contained 7,500 bitcoins that at today's market price would be worth £4.5 million.
The bitcoin miner, James Howells, was shown at the rubbish tip where his hard drive lies buried under tens of metres of compacted refuse, as James ponders that even if he could find the hard drive, would it have survived several months under a wet rotting mountain of waste.
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Tuesday, November 26, 2013
Is Bitcoin, the Digital “Gold Bullion” Worth the Risk? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: There has been a lot of coverage over the phenomenon that is Bitcoin.
I’m sure many of you are asking yourselves, is this online currency for real? What does it really say about our financial system?
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Friday, November 22, 2013
U.S. Dollar Index ETF Trading Strategy / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We all know quantitative easing devalues the Dollar but contrary to that general statement it looks as though we could see the dollar index continue to rise for a few more weeks.
If we analyze the chart of the Dollar ETF (UUP) it is clear that the short term momentum has turned up. The break above the down trend line and recent bounce off support bodes well for the dollar index.
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Wednesday, November 20, 2013
USDCAD Forex Analysis – Triangle In Progress / Currencies / Canadian $
By: Gregor_Horvat
USDCAD reversed lower at the end of last week from that trendline connected from July highs, which suggests that rally from 1.0180 was corrective leg. If that is the case then pair could be forming a bigger and complex correction than we firstly thought. We are now observing idea of a triangle with wave E underway back to 1.0300. This will be a final leg in the pattern, so be aware of a bullish period after completed pattern.
Tuesday, November 19, 2013
When Will the Japanese Yen be Ready to Fall Again? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Submissions
Adam Lemon writes: The biggest story in Forex over the past 12 months – or to put it another way, the most profitable story in Forex over the past 12 months – was the dramatic weakening in both the JPY and the AUD.
Leaving the AUD to one side and focusing on JPY, which is more liquid and at the heart of the story, the narrative went something like this: Japan is in trouble, facing a future with an ageing, shrinking population and a frightened, unproductive younger generation traumatized by years of stagnation. Constitutionally unwilling to countenance mass immigration, Japan has no choice but to try to inflate away its problems by engineering a dramatic depreciation of its currency.
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Monday, November 18, 2013
US Dollar Index USD Rally Forecast / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gregor_Horvat
We believe that USD Index has now turned bullish after recent impulsive rise and breakout out of a downward channel. This breakout is important sign for a change in trend, even if just temporary. Based on a big picture with a triangle, we think that rise from 79.00 is wave D that will unfold in three legs towards 83 maybe even 84.00 region in weeks ahead.
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Friday, November 15, 2013
Currency Wars Redux – is USD next? / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Submissions
Who wants a strong currency? If that question was for an opinion poll of finance ministers and central bankers the response would be a firm no. But in reality no poll is needed. The last couple of weeks’ action has spoken louder than words.
Forex traders were once again reminded that when a currency makes strong gains the chances of verbal or monetary intervention are probably not far off. Losses on long positions can swiftly follow. Those long USD should be cautious.
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Thursday, November 14, 2013
The One Dollar Euro / Currencies / Euro
By: Andrew_McKillop
NOT A CENT MORE
In the years preceding the introduction of the euro dozens of meetings, conferences, books and PhD theses were focused on what rate against the dollar would be optimal. The favored figure was $1.17 but given today's macroeconomic, fiscal and geopolitical context $1 would suffice. To be sure, when the ECB has to raise interest rates, this may push the euro back up. Conversely, an euro held at an artificially high rate against the dollar can only further intensify Europe's economic slump and deflation crisis, and the directly related “bad bank” crisis.
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
Why I Sell the U.S. Dollar: From Dollar Strength to Dollar Weakness / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Q3 of 2013 marked a peak and reversal of direction for the dollar. The notable strength in the dollar during Q2 turned into an equally prominent weakness in Q3 compared to a basket of foreign currencies. All of the G10 currencies strengthened against the dollar during Q3, while the price of gold rose more than 7%. See attached chart for the performance of the U.S. Dollar Index for the year through 10/31/2013.
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
Elliott Wave Counts Suggests EUR/USD Heading Lower / Currencies / Euro
By: Gregor_Horvat
The EUR/USD reversed sharply to the downside in the last few days, clearly in five waves from above 1.3800 with a daily and weekly close price beneath the channel line connected from July lows. This break indicates a change in trend, and possible completion of a larger three wave rally in wave E. But, as always we are focused on minimum expectations for the next few days and weeks, and that is a three wave decline from the top which is also expected on the alternate count which shows an incomplete wave E from 2012 low.
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Sunday, November 10, 2013
Large Speculators turn Bullish on US Dollar Bets in Forex Futures data / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: CountingPips
The latest data for the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report was released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and showed that large futures speculators turned bullish on the US dollar last week after four straight weeks of bearish positions.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $7.02 billion as of Tuesday November 5th. This was a weekly change of $10.17 billion from the total position of $-3.146 billion that was registered on October 29th, according to data from Reuters that calculates this amount by the total of US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
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Tuesday, November 05, 2013
British Pound GBP/USD: Weakness Could Resume After Rally to 1.6000 - 1.6050 / Currencies / British Pound
By: Gregor_Horvat
GBP/USD reversed sharply lower last week through 1.6000 with very sharp and aggressive sell off on Thursday, so it seems that decline from 1.6250 is unfolding in five waves. With that said, we suspect that pair will move even lower in this week.
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Monday, November 04, 2013
USD Index and US Treasury Notes Suggest More EUR Weakness / Currencies / Euro
By: Gregor_Horvat
A sharp reversal from the highs could be an early sign for a bearish trend on EURUSD which sooner or later will occur if we consider that rally from 1.2050 low is corrective. A decline from 1.3832 made last week looks impulsive so based on minimum expectations EURUSD will now move down in three legs, but ideally this is a start of a significant EUR weakness in impulsive fashion.
Sunday, November 03, 2013
Large Forex Speculators Were Bearish on US Dollar Into Late October Bottom, COT Report / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: CountingPips
The latest data for the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report was released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and showed that large futures speculators turned bearish on the US dollar on October 8th and then registered three straight weeks of bearish positions through October 22nd.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, had an overall US dollar short position totaling $-3.64 billion as of Tuesday October 22nd. This was a weekly change of $-2.4 billion from the total position of $-1.24 billion that was registered on October 15th, according to data from Reuters that calculates this amount by the total of US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
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Saturday, November 02, 2013
U.S. Dollar Surge Implications / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Toby_Connor
A rather interesting development occurred on Friday, and one that I wasn't really expecting. The dollar sliced right through its intermediate trend line on its first attempt. I thought for sure we would see some kind of pullback from that trend line before a break. In my opinion this signals that there are a lot of people caught on the wrong side of this market.
Friday, November 01, 2013
USD-JPY Could Be A Good Buy If US Bonds Will Be Trading Lower / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Gregor_Horvat
On the 5 year US notes we can count five waves up from the lows so sooner or later larger downward pullback will occur in three legs. This means that US yield will should be moving to the upside which is supportive for the USDJPY.
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Wednesday, October 30, 2013
U.S. Dollar Long-term View / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
I finally had to look at the monthly chart on the Dollar to get a handle on its position. I identified the Dollar being in a triangle pattern prior to the low in 2011. At that time, I surmised that we were looking at an Intermediate Wave (E). It was an easy mistake to make, since it had escaped the lower trendline as it typical of a Wave (E). However, having turned back at both the top and bottom trendline subsequently gave me pause. Looking at the long-term pattern suggests that the triangle may just be ending now with a second break of the lower trendline for Wave (E).
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Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Why Do Governments Devalue Their Currency Rates? / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Sahil_Hafeez
Currency Devaluation:
Currency devaluation occurs when a country allows the value of its currency to drop in relation to other currencies.
Why do countries let their currency fall in value?
Almost all the countries of the world have devalued their currencies time to time to achieve certain economic objectives. Following are the main objectives of devaluation: