Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Thursday, June 02, 2011
Where Were You the Day the U.S. Dollar Died? / Currencies / US Dollar
Martin Hutchinson writes: I've dubbed this the "pesofication" of the U.S. dollar.
But we're really talking here about the dollar's long-term demise.
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Thursday, June 02, 2011
What Comes After the U.S. Dollar's Demise / Currencies / Fiat Currency
THE DOLLAR'S TERRIBLE FATE
My readers are familiar with my forecast that the US dollar is in terminal decline. America is tragically bankrupt, unable to pay its lenders without printing the dollars to do so, and enmeshed in an economic depression. The clock is ticking until the dollar faces a crisis of confidence like every other bubble before it. The key difference between this collapse and, say, the bursting of the housing bubble is that the US dollar is the backbone of the global economy. Its conflagration will leave a vacuum that needs to be filled.
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Wednesday, June 01, 2011
Canadian Dollar is No Haven from a US DollarĀ Collapse / Currencies / Canadian $
We spend a lot of time here at The Dollar Vigilante chastising Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve and preparing our subscribers for a collapse of the US dollar - something which has been paying off very handsomely, with gold and silver at record highs this year - but don't take that to mean that we prefer any other fiat currency. No fiat currency in the western world is any better than the US Dollar. In fact, in every case, they are worse.
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Wednesday, June 01, 2011
Oil Is the Next Big Play for Energy Stocks / Currencies / Oil Companies
Light oil is the sweet spot for Jennings Capital Oil and Gas Analyst Tim Murray. He's finding plays that tap into pools via horizontal drilling. In this exclusive interview with The Energy Report, Tim talks about finding big growth stories in small companies that require investors to take on a bit more risk.
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Wednesday, June 01, 2011
The Breakup of the Euro and Euro-zone? / Currencies / Euro
Last month Iceland voted against submitting to British and Dutch demands that it compensate their national bank insurance agencies for bailing out their own domestic Icesave depositors. This was the second vote against settlement (by a ratio of 3:2), and Icelandic support for membership in the Eurozone has fallen to just 30 percent. The feeling is that European politics are being run for the benefit of bankers, not the social democracy that Iceland imagined was the guiding philosophy – as indeed it was when the European Economic Community (Common Market) was formed in 1957.
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Saturday, May 28, 2011
EUR/GBP Key Reversal Signal / Currencies / Forex Trading
As in the EUR/USD (Update 12/05/11) the EUR/GBP cross recently displayed a key reversal week, which implied at least a temporary halt in the 2011 uptrend. This week’s violation of key support now suggests a weakening in upward momentum.
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Monday, May 23, 2011
Daily Short-term Forex Market Forecasts for 12 Currency Pairs / Currencies / Forex Trading
From the May 4 top near $1.4950, the EUR/USD (the euro-dollar exchange rate and the most actively-traded forex pair) has fallen as low as $1.4050 on May 16.
In other words, the dollar has gained 9 full cents on the euro in less than two weeks. That's a huge move, and people want explanations. And what the media offers boils down to "risk aversion," in light of "the bad news from Greece." And that sounds good -- until you check the timeline.
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Saturday, May 21, 2011
Euro Peering Over the Abyss, What will the E.U. Do? / Currencies / Euro
I have been doing a lot of reading this week, and today we look at some of the thoughts that keep coming to my mind. We'll think about the declining importance of economic theory (which is a tragedy) and then cast our eyes to Europe, where a truely tragicomic drama is being performed. Who needs the movies when you have the EU? There is a lot to talk about.
But first, some of my thinking has been deeply colored by some recent Conversations I have had with Neil Howe, Lacy Hunt, Dylan Grice, and George Friedman. Those audios and transcripts will soon be on the Conversations website, and others will join them shortly.
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Saturday, May 21, 2011
The China Trade / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
In an Undercollateralized World concluded by quoting Michael Lewitt. Lewitt, the proprietor of Harch Capital Management in Boca Raton, Florida, wrote in the May issue of his monthly letter, The Credit Strategist:
Friday, May 20, 2011
U.S. Dollar Index Reversal Signs / Currencies / US Dollar
The 2011 downleg in the US Dollar Index recently violated the 2009 low but has held above the more major 2008 low, finding support on the long term chart and producing an initial reversal sign too.
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Thursday, May 19, 2011
Forex Forecasts, EUR/USD Falling on Risk Aversion? / Currencies / Forex Trading
From the May 4 top near $1.4950, the EUR/USD (the euro-dollar exchange rate and the most actively-traded forex pair) has fallen as low as $1.4050 on May 16.
In other words, the dollar has gained 9 full cents on the euro in less than two weeks. That's a huge move, and people want explanations. And what the media offers boils down to "risk aversion," in light of "the bad news from Greece." And that sounds good -- until you check the timeline.
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Thursday, May 19, 2011
Living Through A Currency Devaluation / Currencies / Fiat Currency
Lonerangersilver writes: In 1976 I was managing an American subsidiary of a successful large US Company in Mexico. It had been a financial turnaround for our team. Cash flow had accumulated in our bank in Mexico and corporate didn’t want the money repatriated to the US. Although we had already paid a 35% income tax to the Mexican government, we would have to pay an additional 30% exit tax to repatriate the money. In addition, we would have to pay high fees for the peso/dollar exchange, in order to make the transfer. The company wanted to expand our successful business and so we decided to keep the money in Mexican pesos to be used for further expansion.
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Tuesday, May 17, 2011
U.S. Dollar Bull Monkey Dance Will End Badly, with a QE3 party? / Currencies / US Dollar
Interesting to watch all of the Silver and Gold Bears running out into the streets from their caves beating their chests due to the silver shellacking we just saw. Getting jiggy with the US Dollar rally is all the rage right now, and stomping on the precious metals Bulls is the hot sport. The only problem is calling for a crash after a crash is kind of like picking the winner of the NCAA tournament at your office the day after the tournament ends. It's rare to get a crash on top of a crash, and trying to predict any crash is a fool's game anyways.
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Friday, May 13, 2011
EUR/USD Negative Key Reversal Gives Bulls Pause / Currencies / Euro
This year’s uptrend recently neared a 76.4% recovery level, but a sell-off last week has stopped bulls in their tracks for now, with current risk of further losses shorter term.
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Friday, May 13, 2011
What Drives the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
The Dollar staged a lightening recovery towards the end of last week, especially against the Euro, driven by three main events:
- Anxieties about the Euro zone Sovereign debt crisis intensified as speculation continued to grow that Greece might yet be forced to restructure her debts,
- The ECB held interest rates unchanged, with Trichet failing to provide guidance about the timing of any future rate increase, and
- Anxieties emerged about the health and durability of the Global recovery.
Thursday, May 12, 2011
U.S. Dollar Transision From Bear to Bull Complete / Currencies / US Dollar
Despite my bias to see new all time lows in the dollar index, I think the dollar probably put in the three year cycle low last week. Sentiment at the time had reached multi-year lows and as of yesterday the dollar had moved back above the 50 day moving average.
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Thursday, May 12, 2011
Countertrend Moves In U.S. Dollar, Gold and Silver / Currencies / US Dollar
The US dollar has been reacting very bullish to the death of Osama bin Laden, the figurehead of Al Qaeda. Short-term investors have shown a renewed interest in the US dollar (UUP) as near-term resistance and the 50-day moving average have broken to the upside. Word has spread that this has been a critical blow to the Al Qaeda network, but countries are preparing for retaliatory attacks.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Why the Euro Currency is Doomed / Currencies / Euro
Jack Barnes writes: The Eurozone project has seen better days, which is why the future of the euro isn't a bright one.
In fact, as all the latest speculation about Greece either abandoning the euro currency - or being booted out of the Eurozone outright - is demonstrating, "the market" is about to apply a level of pressure well beyond what the Eurozone and European Union (EU) were designed to handle.
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Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Gold and the Dead Cat U.S. Dollar Bounce / Currencies / US Dollar
This is a classic dead cat bounce by the US Dollar as it appears to fight desperately to avoid dropping below the much watched ‘72′ level. We say fight, but the real situation is not a fight at all, its a managed decline by the United States to lower the value of their currency and ultimately inflate away the mountain of debt that it realizes is impossible to ever re-pay.
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Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Why the U.S. Dollar is Ready to Rebound, Anatomy of an Inflection Point / Currencies / US Dollar
Jack Barnes writes: For most of the past year, anything involving the U.S. dollar has been what traders like to refer to as a "one-way trade."
And with good reason: Over the past year, the U.S. currency has traded in only one direction - down.
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