Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, July 02, 2008
Coming Wave of Government Regulation and the Risk to the US Dollar / Currencies / Market Regulation
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
Over the past several months it has become clear that there is a cauldron of regulation brewing in Washington. The bursting of the subprime bubble and dislocation in the financial sector has brought with it, in its aftermath, the risk of overregulation. Members of the political class are brimming with confidence that the political, economic and social considerations have aligned to finally tame the market. Serious consideration is being given to policies that would curb the ability of investors to hedge against future instability in markets, engage in financial innovation and even determine the pay of senior managers, much less corporate executives. What is beginning to take shape is not a necessary bout of reform, but a wave of regulation that will stem that necessary flow of investment into the US and put the dollar at greater risk. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 01, 2008
FX Forecasts: Fundementals Remain Weak for the US Dollar / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Ashraf_Laidi
What began the month with an unexpected bang in currency markets ended with a not so unexpected whimper. Fed Chairman Bernanke's eventful speech of June 3rd to the International Monetary Conference supporting the dollar was seen as the possible end of Washington's policy of benign neglect towards its currency. But the economic fundamentals wouldn't play along.
US Treasury Secretary urged the Gulf States not to end their pegs to the dollar or not to even revalue their currencies against the greenback. Saudi Arabia conformed to Paulson's requests urging the rest of GCC states to do the same. And in order to make that possible, i.e. to combat the inflationary pressures of pegging their currencies to a falling dollar, Saudi Arabia increased oil supply by 200K barrels per day and even hosted an extraordinary summit in Jeddah where oil producers and consumers could work out their differences.
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Monday, June 30, 2008
Aussie Dollar: A Short Set-up Developing … / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Black_Swan
Sometimes we like to give you a free glimpse into what types of trade set-ups we watch for and act on in our premium services. Here’s an interesting set-up that’s caught our eye ...
There are a couple things going on that are impacting the price of the Australian dollar versus the US dollar. Among them: interest rates, economic developments and the global risk-taking environment.
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Monday, June 30, 2008
Interest Rates Tightening Bias to Spark Emerging Markets Forex Rally / Currencies / Emerging Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: If you think the U.S. has inflation problems, get a load of this ...
Year-over-year consumer prices in Vietnam just surged by a whopping 26.8%. The month-over-month numbers jumped a cool 2.1% — or what the Federal Reserve would consider a comfortable pace for inflation in the U.S. over the course of an entire year.
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Sunday, June 29, 2008
The Historic Fate of Paper Money / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Mike_Hewitt
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value - zero." (Voltaire, 1694-1778)
The first well-known widespread use of paper money was in China during the Tang (618-907 A.D.) dynasty around 800 A.D. Paper money spread to the city of Tabriz, Persia in 1294 and to parts of India and Japan between 1319 to 1331. However, its use was very short-lived in these regions. In Persia, the merchants refused to recognize the new money, thus bringing trade to a standstill. By 1455, after over 600 years, the Chinese abandoned paper money due to numerous problems of over issuance and hyperinflation.
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Friday, June 27, 2008
Fed Intervention Will Not Stop the US Dollar's Slide / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
This week the Federal Reserve took a step closer to acknowledging reality. Unfortunately it didn't let that admission move it from a policy course firmly guided by fantasy. In its policy statement, Bernanke & Co. took the important step in noting that inflation expectations had taken hold in the country at large. However, in asserting that it expects inflation to moderate this year and next, the Fed gave no indications that these heightened expectations are gaining traction within the Open market Committee itself. As a result, it signaled no likelihood that it was actually prepared to do something to fight a problem which it doesn't really believe exists in the first place. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 27, 2008
Sinking Fiat Currencies / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Mike_Hewitt
Fiat money is not directly convertible into a physical commodity at a specified amount. It is a type of credit money through which a central bank issues notes in exchange for interest-paying bonds by the government. The interest on these bonds is paid by the government primarily through the process of taxation. That is to say, by you and me.
Since the interest plus the principle always exceeds the initial amount borrowed, the government must continually borrow more money, at additional interest, in order to repay the central bank, thus beginning an ever-increasing spiral of debt.
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Thursday, June 26, 2008
The Norwegian Krone as the Next Reserve Currency? / Currencies / Euro-Zone
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Today, the Norges Bank, the Norwegian central bank, raised its policy interest rate 25 basis points to 5.75%. That puts the Norges Bank's policy rate 293 basis points over the May year-over-year CPI inflation rate on a harmonized basis (see Chart). Notice that the Norges Bank was raising its policy rate in the first half of 2007 as the inflation rate was falling. The Norges Bank is offering savers an "honest" return on their funds. Isn't this what you would look for in a reserve currency's central bank?Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 20, 2008
EUR USD: Pattern for Profits / Currencies / Euro
By: Black_Swan
Lots of times trading will reward you if you find patterns in historical price data and bet on it occurring again. It’s kind of like the whole “History repeats itself!” motto. Of course, history doesn’t keep on repeating itself, especially in financial markets. But there is another motto to remember: “The trend is your friend!”Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 20, 2008
US Current Account Deficit is Still A Drag On the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
Lost amidst recent data on inflation, the rise in oil prices, a deepening crisis in the housing market and the uncanny ability of Goldman-Sachs to outperform market expectations was the deterioration of the current account balance in Q1'08. The U.S. current-account deficit increased to $176.4 billion in the first quarter of 2008 vs. the $167.2 billion recorded in the fourth quarter of 2007. The primary catalyst for the increase was a decline in earnings from foreign investments and the sharp increase in the cost of imported oil. Should such an unsustainable and large deficit continue to persist, the value of the dollar over time could see another sharp adjustment due to the combination of global macroeconomic imbalance and the unwise economic domestic economic policies pursued in the US over the past few years. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
US Economic Disappointments Point to a Continuing Rebound in the Euro / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Activity may be quiet in today's US data calendar so it is time to further shed light on next week's key events. Sunday's emergency meeting in Saudi Arabia between oil producers and consumers, combined with next Wednesday's FOMC decision may serve as a powerful recipe for a lasting dollar rebound and effective containment of oil price increases, especially for the US, Europe and Japan. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
US Dollar / Japanese Yen Low Risk Opportunity / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Black_Swan
We’re wondering: How credible is the Japanese yen risk-aversion play? Stocks have been less than stellar lately yet the yen has pretty much been sliding against the buck. That’s not exactly how it worked when subprime, credit crunch and writedowns were the new buzz words on Wall Street.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 14, 2008
Truth of the US Dollar Devaluation Behind Bernanke's Words / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Andy_Sutton
This week we have seen a textbook verbal campaign touch off a long-awaited rally in the Dollar, firmly supported by data to suggest that the Federal Reserve should at least hold a hard line on rates. We have even heard some Federal Reserve governors, most notably Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser calling for an immediate increase in interest rates. It has been my opinion since we first heard this verbal campaign begin nearly two months ago that the Fed's goal was to do nothing but talk. So far, I have not been disappointed. Here are some notable quotes from this week: Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Yen vs. SPU– Break down of Inverse Relationship / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Black_Swan
Give your risk thermometer a good shaking because mine are giving me conflicting readouts. Stocks, the primary measure of risk-taking levels in the financial system, are tumbling. The Japanese yen, now a secondary measure of risk-taking levels in the financial system, is also tumbling.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
US Dollar Lifted by Talk of Intervention / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold closed at $867.80 in New York and was down $27 and silver closed at $16.57 down 58 cents. Gold has risen in Asia overnight and in early European trading this morning is up some 0.5%. Further consolidation between $850 and $950 is needed and the 200 day moving average at $855 is likely to provide good support (especially with oil up 2% today).Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
CPR for the Dieing US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Kurt_Kasun
Perhaps we should institute DNR rather than CPR. Two days ago Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke shocked the world by commenting on his concerns regarding the fall of the US Dollar. In past policy, the Fed refrained from discussing the US currency; US dollar commentary was supposed to have been within the exclusive purview of the US Treasury. But it is now clear that the Fed is making up the rules as it goes. The remarks have had the intended result of resuscitating the buck, a welcomed response, according to today's Wall Street Journal editorial, "The Buck Stops Where," "because the price of gold and oil have fallen in each of the last two days." In this election year, there is a coordinated effort among the Treasury, the Fed, and regulatory agencies to beat down the price of commodities. If only it were that easy. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 07, 2008
Bernanke's Feeble Attempt to Boost the US Dollar Lasts for Just 24hours / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Galakoutis
It is becoming increasingly obvious to everyone that in the world of central bankers there is only one credibility champ.
Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke warned about the price pressures caused by a weak dollar and emphasized inflation concerns in a speech on Wednesday, sparking a dollar rally and many pats on the back.
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Friday, June 06, 2008
The US Fed's Strong US Dollar Policy / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
Ever since Robert Rubin began the tradition in the mid-1990s, it has been a significant element of the Treasury Secretary's job description to continuously state that a strong dollar is in the national interest. It is widely regarded that such utterances, if repeated often enough, can constitute the sum total of what is still laughingly known as the nation's “strong dollar policy.” Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 05, 2008
Climate Change Conundrum…Global Warming or Cooling? and US Dollar Update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
The effects of burning huge quantities of oil around the globe has been going on for over 100 years and now the bio-feedback mechanisms are just starting to be noticed. Trends such as this take hundreds or thousands of years to revert back to the mean. A present, oil shortages along with many other commodities are now in Contango, which is putting pressure on longer term pricing for those wishing to secure raw materials for production purposes (e.g. steel for cars, oats for cereal etc.). Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 04, 2008
Ben Bernanke Puts Markets on Notice that US Dollar Will Be Defended / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Ben Bernanke's speech in Barcelona this week hardly marks a new strong Dollar policy..."
BEN BERNANKE put the wind up Dollar bears, Gold bulls and just about everyone else in the currency markets for a whole hour on Tuesday.
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