Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, October 03, 2008
US Dollar Doomed as Credit Crisis Turning into a Currency Crisis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jennifer_Barry
When the precious metals were smashed out of nowhere and the dollar started climbing this summer I became very worried. I didn't question my conviction that commodities are in a bull market, or that precious metals in particular are undervalued. I felt something sinister was at work. Neither move was justified on a fundamental level. I assumed that something very bad was about to happen and the metals needed to be brought lower in advance of the bad news. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 03, 2008
US Dollar Death Ray Powered by Soaring Federal Reserve Bank Credit / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Dollar Death Ray , powered by the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve, is aimed at the heart of the U.S. dollar. Forget the U.S. Congress debate of the Bank Bail Out and Congressional Reelection Bill of 2008. The Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury, without a vote of Congress and support of the voters, has given $253 billion to banks in the past week. That is according to the Federal Reserve statement issued yesterday, 2 October. Without any regard for their actions, these two agencies are flooding the U.S. banking system with liquidity in an unprecedented manner. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 01, 2008
Terrible ISM Economic Report Won't Prevent Euro and GBP Selling / Currencies / Futures Trading
By: Ashraf_Laidi
An important component in today's terrible August ISM report (plunging to a 6-year low of 43.5) is the tumbling prices paid component to 53.5 from 77.00, which is a wake up call for the Federal Reserve's misplaced inflation preoccupation, especially given the tumble in the employment index to 41.8 from 49.
Today's ISM report is not only recessionary, but also underlines the notion that "rescue packages" are merely confidence builders and by no means solutions to the deepening macroeconmic economic slump and the resulting financial market erosion. USDJPY seen extending losses towards 105.20. Despite these dismal US figures, we maintan our pessimism with the high yielding FX such as AUD, GBP (still seen at $1.76) and NZD. EUR eyes $1.3950.
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Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Don't Miss the Next Big US Dollar Move / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: INO
The US Dollar has been in a long-term bear market since 2001, having bottomed earlier this year in March at USD 71, the Dollar has since attempted to form a bottom up until the most recent price action.
The following video presents my dollar view for several months.
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Friday, September 26, 2008
US Dollar to be Hit by Federal Reserve Bank Credit Death Ray / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Our graph this week is of the Dollar Death Ray , which is aimed directly at the value of the U.S. dollar. This plot is an extension of that which was introduced in last week's Gold Thoughts . In the graph is plotted the year-to-year change in Federal Reserve bank credit. In simplest terms, it is the rate of expansion of the asset side of Federal Reserve's balance sheet. Latest data was released Thursday, 25 September. In this case, it has been adjusted for a circular transaction created by Treasury supplemental financing of the Federal Reserve which was recently done. Federal Reserve bank credit, or U.S. base money, has now been expanded at a record level. Rarely, if ever, has a major central bank intentionally inflated its balance sheet in such an inflationary manner.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Will the US Dollar Drown in an Ocean of Debt? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Dorsch
About $3.6 trillion of market value was wiped-out from global stock markets in the three-days between Sept 15-17 th , triggered by the bankruptcy filing by Lehman Brothers, and fireworks in the $62 trillion credit default swap market. The collapse of Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch's eleventh-hour flight for safety into the arms of Bank of America, and the meltdown at American International Group, were all linked to credit default swaps on mortgages that led to the fall of these titans. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 15, 2008
US Dollar Rally Not Over Yet / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Those looking for a collapse in the US dollar in the wake of the Lehman bankruptcy did not get it. The US dollar index was down huge last night but has now rallied to even. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 12, 2008
US Dollars Last Gasp of a Doomed Currency / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
In the latest example of financial market madness, the recent government “bailout” of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae has perversely resulted in a sharp rise in the value of the U.S. dollar. If the markets were functioning rationally, the transference of staggering new liabilities to the U.S. Treasury would have been immediately seen as catastrophic for the dollar. Instead the markets have ignored the obviously negative long-term implications and have remained fixated on the more immediate effects. However, rather than solving the problems, the government's actions merely confirm my worst fears, and increase the chances for a hyper-inflationary outcome. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Risk Aversion Drives JPY and GBP in Opposite Directions / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Now that US equity indices have erased all of Monday's gains less than 24-hours after the US Treasury's takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie, we can further better deduce the extent of negative sentiment prevailing in US and overseas markets. We illustrated on Monday how the number of "up" days in US equity indices following the various interventions from the Fed and the Treasury of the past 9 months has declined over time. The Fed-backed takeover of Bear Stearns in mid March produced a rally lasting 2 months. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
“Maverick McCain” and the Resurrection of the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Dorsch
“As soon as you think you've got the key to the stock market, they change the lock,” lamented Joe Granville, who is mostly remembered for his bearish calls on the US stock market during the 1970's, 1980's, and the 1990's. Nowadays, many currency traders are scratching their heads, trying to figure out what's behind the sudden resurrection of the US-dollar, which is flexing its muscles for the first time in two-years, and defying conventional logic, by climbing sharply higher against most foreign currencies, including those that offer much higher rates of interest.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Scared Money Heads for US Dollar and Treasuries / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Adrian_Ash
"...So today we're back where we started, with a collapse in retail investments (then stocks, now housing) and the collapse of the very biggest institutional bets. The US administration's response...?"
EVIL DAYS indeed. Scared and scarred by losses in all other assets, the world's wealth suddenly wants to sit in the safety of US Dollars and US Treasury bonds.
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Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Massive US Dollar Short Opportunity / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Joe_Gelet
One way or another, the dollar is going down. Hold on to your shorts because this will be the short of the decade.
Recent interventions in commodity markets, which has been a combination of short selling in the Gold market, and large institutions taking profit in a multi-year bull market in hard commodities such as Oil, has caused a short uptick in the dollar.
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Monday, September 08, 2008
The Almighty US Dollar and Gold / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Captain_Hook
(WWII), where to the victors go the spoils derived from conflict. In this case, and subsequent to WWII, the US essentially took control of the Japanese and German economies, and more, spreading it's influence around the globe by imposing $ pricing mechanisms that stand to this day. Therein, it's no fluke crude oil and other commodities are primarily priced in $'s you see, which keeps the demand for the ‘almighty dollar' high, allowing for it's continued unmitigated manufacture. What's more, this manufacture has now spread into financial derivatives and other debt related instruments that keep the $ bubble growing at an accelerating pace. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 08, 2008
British Pound Slides Deeper Against US Dollar / Currencies / British Pound
By: Regent_Markets
It was a good week for European equity markets with the FTSE100 finishing the week at 5636, its highest level for nearly two months. US markets didn’t have such a good time of it, with the Dow Jones and S&P500 finishing largely flat on the week and the Nasdaq closing well down after a sell off on Friday. There was better news for the Greenback though, as the Pound fell to its lowest level for two years against the US Dollar. Although the Dollar has undoubtedly been strong over the last month, last week’s move on Cable (USD/ GBP) was largely a factor of the weakening pound. It made a record weekly low against the Euro and fell to its lowest levels since spring against the Japanese Yen.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 06, 2008
US Jobs Report Generates Limited US Dollar Damage / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The jump in the August unemployment rate to a new 5-year high of 6.1% from 5.7% leaves little doubt to currency traders that the USD rally remains largely a manifestation of broadening economic weakness outside of the US, rather than any signs of strength at home.
August nonfarm payrolls fell by 84K vs expectations of -75K, in track to match the length of consecutive monthly job losses in the recessions of 1990-91 (11 months) and 2001-2 (15 months).
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Friday, September 05, 2008
Why the US Dollar is Rallying / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Christopher_Laird
Back in April, we alerted subscribers that the USD appeared to be bottoming. At the time, it was floating at about 70-72 on the USDX. A whole lot has happened since then to cause this reversal, with the USD now at 78 plus on the USDX (US dollar index currency basket heavily Euro weighted). There are many reasons for the rebound of the USD and its rise is likely to continue. Many of the long term trends that acted since 2002 to weaken the USD have reversed. The exceptions are the continuing US trade and fiscal deficits, but those USD bearish forces are being overridden by these other big bullish USD drivers that have now appeared in 08. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 04, 2008
US Dollar Soaring, Stocks Collapsing ECB Rates on Hold, So wheres Inflation? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Today Trichet went to a 'neutral bias' as noted in ECB holds key rate steady at 4.25% The European Central Bank left its key lending rate unchanged at 4.25% in a widely anticipated decision Thursday, and ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet signaled it likely won't make a change any time soon.
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Monday, September 01, 2008
Gold and the Collapse of Fiat Paper Money / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
The past is not prologue. The coming collapse will not be the same as the Great Depression. It will be worse. Then, it will be better.
Free will, like the idea of free markets, has an unmistakable appeal. Nonetheless, even its most committed advocates did not choose or will their birth, their gender, their proclivities, their talents or their foibles; and whether we wish to be here or not, all of us are now gathered together on the very precipice of extreme change.
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Saturday, August 30, 2008
Currencies Surge Against Gold Led by US Dollar as Carry Trades Unwind / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The events of the past three weeks in foreign exchange markets continue to be dominated by prolonged dollar strength and a fierce bout of selling in the British pound. The charts below show the secular performance of the major currencies, measuring their performances against gold -- whose price is determined by the forces of supply and demand rather than by central bank monetary policy or printing press. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 29, 2008
Is Massive Foreign Treasury Buying Causing a US Dollar Rally? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Here is an interesting theory stipulating that foreign central banks are behind the rally in treasuries and that in turn is causing a rally in the dollar. Please consider Foreign Central Banks Behind Rally In US Treasuries .
The huge amount of US Treasury purchases which has sent that chart nearly vertical helps to explain the continued rally in the US Dollar. It is a near certainty that something has been transpiring behind the scenes involving various Central Banks in regards to the US Dollar.
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