Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
NIESR Reports UK Recession Over, Economic Recovery Underway / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The mainstream 'respected' forecasting organisation, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) reported earlier today that it believed that Britain's economic depression bottomed in March and that economic output across the economy rose in April 09 by 0.2% and by 0.1% in May 2009, which follows my own analysis of a stabilising economy a week ago which was also emailed to the NIESR forecasting organisation.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Is the U.S. Economy Heading for a “Jobless Recovery?” / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes: Could the U.S. economy be looking at a “jobless recovery?”
After the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression reached its apex late last year, the U.S. economy has shown signs of life in recent months. Stock prices have soared.
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Wednesday, June 10, 2009
A Tale of Two Diverging Economic Worlds / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: F_William_Engdahl
Increasingly a deep divide within the world of globalization is emerging which will have the most profound significance for the future of G7 nations’ economic and political stability. The divide is between those nations which are still embedded within the dollar system, including countries in the Eurozone, versus those emerging economies—especially the BRIC—Brazil, Russia, India, China—where new economic markets and regions are rapidly replacing their over-dependence on the United States as prime export market and prime source for investment finance. The long-term consequences will be an aggravation of the trend of the United States as a political and economic superpower in terminal decline, while dynamic new economic zones, initially mainly of regional importance, will arise.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
What the Dramatic Turn in the U.S. Saving Rate Could Mean to You / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_and_Markets
Claus Vogt writes: During the past few weeks of exciting “green shoot” news, a very important economic statistic has been ignored: The U.S. saving rate.
U.S. citizens have been saving less and less since the early 1980s. And the saving rate even turned negative during the height of the real estate bubble.
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Tuesday, June 09, 2009
Is U.S. Heading for Zimbabwe Style Hyperinflation or Deflation? / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Whitney
The Republicans are convinced that hyperinflation is just around the corner, but don't believe it. The real enemy is deflation, which is why Fed chief Bernanke has taken such extraordinary steps to pump liquidity into the system. The economy is flat on its back and hemorrhaging a half a million jobs per month. The housing market is crashing, retail sales are in a funk, manufacturing is down, exports are falling, and consumers have started saving for the first time in decades. There's excess capacity everywhere and aggregate demand has dropped off a cliff. If it wasn't for the Fed's monetary stimulus and myriad lending facilities, the economy would be stretched out on a marble slab right now. So, where's the inflation? Here's Paul Krugman with part of the answer:
Tuesday, June 09, 2009
The Consequences of Weak Dollar and Economic Stimulus Has Started to Arrive / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Michael_Pento
The consequences of adopting a weak dollar and inflationary monetary policy to bail out the economy have begun to manifest themselves, although the real effects of the government’s $12.8 trillion dollar recovery plan have only just started to show up. Investors should not be surprised to learn that the commitments, guarantees, and prodigal spending of the past two Administrations have come with harrowing consequences. Surprising or not, these painful consequences are just beginning to appear and are rather insidious in nature.
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Tuesday, June 09, 2009
Lessons for Economists on Deflationary, Deleveraging Recessions / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
There is a debate in academic circles on the lessons of the current economic crisis. While most ivory tower debates are of little concern to our daily affairs, this debate should concern you, as it will inform those who hold central bank and political power. Remember, there is no playbook of rules for what to do in deflationary, deleveraging recessions. They are making it up as they go along.
Monday, June 08, 2009
Economic Policy Makers Have Created A Perfect Financial Storm / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Paul_Craig_Roberts
Economic news remains focused on banks and housing, while the threat mounts to the US dollar from massive federal budget deficits in fiscal years 2009 and 2010.
Monday, June 08, 2009
Is the U.S. Economy Heading for Stagflation? / Economics / Stagflation
By: Gerard_Jackson
Irrespective of how Obama's media supporters try to spin it the unemployment situation is grave and still deteriorating. This was not supposed to happen. According to his economic advisors the situation would be disastrous unless congress rushed through Obama's stimulus package. Dr. Christine Romer -- one of Obama's chief economic advisors -- predicted unemployment would hit 8.8 per cent unless swift action was undertaken.
Sunday, June 07, 2009
London Retail Price Inflation Falls the Most Over the Past 12 Months / Economics / Inflation
By: HBOS
London experienced the largest decline in retail prices1 over the past year with a 2.8% fall between 2008 quarter one and 2009 quarter one, according to new research by Halifax. This was more than twice the 1.3%* fall for the UK as a whole. However, despite this, the overall price level in the capital remains higher than any other UK region. All 12 UK regions recorded a decline in retail prices over the past 12 months.
Sunday, June 07, 2009
Optimistic Unemployment and Housing Market Forecasts Looking Silly / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Economics may be the "dismal science" but economists as a group sure seem to be an optimistic lot. Yes, there are a handful of "doomers" like Nouriel Roubini but most economists did not see the recession coming until it was already 10 months old.
Please consider unemployment forecasts. The Fed forecast unemployment at 8.4% in 2009 and the "adverse forecast" was at 10.3% in 2010.
Sunday, June 07, 2009
U.S. Treasury Spread Model Suggests Economic Recovery has Started / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
“According to the New York Fed, ‘Research beginning in the late 1980s documents the empirical regularity that the slope of the yield curve is a reliable predictor of future real economic activity.’
“The New York Fed just released its latest ‘Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread’, with data through May 2009, and the Fed’s recession probability forecast through May 2010. The NY Fed’s model uses the spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates (currently at 3.11%) to calculate the probability of a recession in the United States twelve months ahead.
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Friday, June 05, 2009
U.S. Fed Throttling the Economic Recovery? / Economics / US Interest Rates
By: Andy_Sutton
Despite the calm appearance on the economic waters of late, there is quite a bit of turbulence building beneath the surface on a multitude of fronts. Several developments have emerged that fly directly in the face of the idea that we’re headed for a green shoots recovery. Even more surprising, when you take a deeper look at these issues, some rather remarkable inconsistencies emerge in that the methods being used in some critical areas virtually guarantee that they will not be successful. We’ll take a look at two of these areas, but first, let’s discuss manoeuvring room.
Friday, June 05, 2009
U.S. and European Economies Accelerating Decent into Marxism / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Ty_Andros
Fingers of Instability, Part III:
The Banks
Command Performance
Wealth Creation
Descent into Marxism!
Introduction - The descent into MARXISM is accelerating at a startling rate. Public servants and blind ideologues are stopping at nothing to achieve CREEPING CONTROL over the private sector of the United States of America. As the US economy continues to plummet, the mainstream media continues to talk about GREEN shoots and recovery to get the sheeple, er ... people to FEEL GOOD long enough to get their plans ENSHRINED in law. Once passed, never repealed, and essential to your future security.
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Friday, June 05, 2009
U.S. Jobs Contract 17th Straight Month; Unemployment Rate Soars to 9.4% / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the April Employment Report.
Friday, June 05, 2009
Ending of Deflation Fears, Big Inflation Coming / Economics / Inflation
By: Zeal_LLC
At the height of the stock panic in late November, the flagship S&P 500 stock index had plunged 49% year-to-date. Fully 2/3rds of this decline happened in the 9 weeks leading into the panic lows! Naturally the psychological impact of such an epic selloff was utterly massive. Fear exploded to unprecedented extremes.
Thursday, June 04, 2009
U.S. Unemployment Claims Dips Green Shoots? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
The string of 17 consecutive weeks of higher continuing claims ended today with slight dip in claims.
Continuing claims hit 6.788 million last week, setting a 17th consecutive record (revised slightly lower to 6.750 million). Today's number is 6.735 million, breaking the streak (assuming the number is not revised up later).
Thursday, June 04, 2009
United States Destined to Become the Great Britain of the 21st Century? / Economics / US Economy
By: James_Quinn
WHO ARE THOSE GUYS - Sheriff Ray Bledsoe: [to Butch and Sundance] You should have let yourself get killed a long time ago when you had the chance. See, you may be the biggest thing that ever hit this area, but you're still two-bit outlaws. I never met a soul more affable than you, Butch, or faster than the Kid, but you're still nothing but two-bit outlaws on the dodge. It's over, don't you get that? Your times is over and you're gonna die bloody, and all you can do is choose where.
Thursday, June 04, 2009
The First Steps towards Hyper-Inflation / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Paul_Tustain
Choose your poison: the trickle of excess cash or the trickle of excess bond redemptions...
NOT FOR THE first time the Financial Times says we gold buyers are "nuts" – a word which all too often follows on from "gold" in the financial media.
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Thursday, June 04, 2009
A Structural Change in the Global Debt Based Financial and Economic System / Economics / Global Financial System
By: Submissions
Brett Jordaan writes: What politicians and central bankers around the world are either neglecting to tell us, or to consider, is that the current economic crisis, now a global recession and fast becoming a depression, is a result of a fundamental structural shift in the very makeup of the world economy. The credit crisis is widely accepted as the trigger for the current economic woes, but those who take a broad view of the world will see that our current predicament was actually years in the making, and ultimately, inevitable. As inevitable as the collapse of a house of cards, or the implosion of a Ponzi scheme. In fact, the global monetary system actually fits the description of a Ponzi scheme.