Analysis Topic: Politics & Social Trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, August 01, 2017
Trump’s Trade War Will Trigger The Biggest Wave Of Automation in History / Politics / Robotics
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : War is coming—the signs are everywhere.
Last week, US and Chinese negotiators met in Washington to cap the 100-day dialogue that Presidents Trump and Xi promised at their April summit.
It didn’t go well.
The joint statement reported no new agreements, and both sides canceled their planned press conferences.
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Tuesday, August 01, 2017
The Myths and Realities of Duterte’s Infrastructure Initiative / Politics / Asian Economies
By: Dan_Steinbock
A huge upgrade of infrastructure is vital for Philippines economic future. That’s why it is contested by entrenched interests, including foreign powers. This is the first in a series of occasional commentaries about the Philippines transformation from an international viewpoint.In the past year, President Duterte has initiated a series of economic reforms to accelerate economic development. Despite much “political noise,” the government seeks sustained growth around 6.5- 7% in 2017, by banking on multiple initiatives, especially higher infrastructure spending.
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Monday, July 31, 2017
Exposing the US Government As Terrorist Organization / Politics / US Politics
By: Jeff_Berwick
I recently had the opportunity to speak on Iran’s PressTV channel. It was great being able to speak a bit of truth about the state of the world and evil transgressions perpetrated by the US government on a relatively well-known network.
The first thing I was asked about was what kind of repercussions the US sanctions on Russia, Iran, and North Korea will have? I responded by bringing up the great anarchist, Frederick Bastiat’s, quote “When goods don’t cross borders, Soldiers will.”
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Saturday, July 29, 2017
America – Then and Now – Part 1 / Politics / US Politics
By: Andy_Sutton
Yesterday Andy had a chance to go on Liberty Talk Radio and talk about what is going on economically. We decided that despite what we felt was a great show, that it didn’t even scratch the surface in terms of the differences between how things used to be and how they are now. Particularly disturbing is the relative lack of understanding or willingness to even accept the changes that have taken place by the majority of the population. The latter is called ‘normalcy bias’. It is something ingrained in each of us as a human and either reinforced or stunted by our experiences. We aren’t sure how far down the road of ‘Then and Now’ we’ll get in today’s installment. There may be future installments.
Saturday, July 29, 2017
Potential Winners in Space Exploration / Politics / Technology
By: Rodney_Johnson
In the pre-dawn hours of Saturday, October 12, 1957, a cold north wind blew through the streets of Baltimore. The temperature hovered around 40 degrees, but many of the people standing outside weren’t concerned about the chilly air.They trained their binoculars on the sky. A small, glowing object streaked through the darkness and changed their world forever. Footage shot from down below by a local TV cameraman ended up on the national news.
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Friday, July 28, 2017
Why Russia’s Slumping Grain Yields Are So Bad For Putin / Politics / Russia
By: John_Mauldin
By Geopolitical Futures : Russia relies on wheat more than any other foodstuff as an important component of its food supply. In fact, roughly 70% of wheat produced in Russia annually is consumed domestically. From Siberia to the westernmost regions bordering Europe, wheat is a staple in most parts of the country.
In 2016, Russia became the world’s top grain exporter with a record production of 120 million tons of wheat, according to Russian statistics agency Rosstat. But poor weather conditions have affected this year’s production.
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Thursday, July 27, 2017
China May Not Have Stopped North Korea’s Nuclear Program Deliberately / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : The United States and China met to discuss trade issues.
The meeting ended without agreement on anything. The obligatory joint press conference after the talks, where everyone pretends that everything was fine, was canceled.
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Thursday, July 27, 2017
Congress Is Hopeless Against Trump’s Plans To Impose Trade Sanctions / Politics / US Politics
By: John_Mauldin
Trade is the global economy’s bloodstream. The more freely it flows, the better for all.
As David Ricardo explained 200 years ago, different peoples have unique characteristics that enable them to produce certain goods at lower opportunity costs than others can. Free trade gives consumers access to the best goods and services at the lowest prices.
However, what we now call “free trade” is not what Ricardo had in mind. We have instead managed trade designed to benefit certain favored parties and to disadvantage others.
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Wednesday, July 26, 2017
Iran: Public Image Versus Historical Reality - Part 1: An Abridged History to the 20th Century / Politics / Iran
By: Raymond_Matison
Part I, traces historical events which have shaped Iran’s evolution and development from its great Persian empire of over two thousand years ago to those taking place in the 20th century.
Over the last several decades Iran has been labeled by the United States a terrorist state, a state that needs to be restricted or otherwise controlled. Consequently, Iran has been under frequent, broad and severe sanctions over the last several decades, whereby it was impeded from selling its oil to generate revenues, and foreclosed to use the SWIFT system of international money transfer. It is a state, according to the international community, which cannot be permitted to develop nuclear arms. President George W. Bush identified Iran as part of a global axis of evil. More recently President Trump has noted on his recent trip to the Middle East that Iran “is the biggest sponsor of terrorism, and that Iran must never be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon”. He called on “all nations of conscience to isolate Iran”.
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Tuesday, July 25, 2017
Trump’s “America First” Trade Frictions Are About to Begin / Politics / US Politics
By: Dan_Steinbock
After the US-Sino Comprehensive Economic Dialogue, trade issues are alienating not only China and America’s NATO allies – but its NAFTA partners, Canada and Mexico.As the Trump administration’s first US-Sino Comprehensive Economic Dialogue (CED) ended in Washington, it could only agree on three no’s: canceled news conferences, no joint statement and no new announcements on market access by the US to China, or by China to the US.
A simple scenario is that the CED has paved way to a major trade conflict between the US and China. Yet, despite tough political rhetoric, economic realities do not seem to support such a view, at least yet.
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Tuesday, July 25, 2017
GOP Leadership Betrays Trump Voters on Obamacare & Debt / Politics / US Politics
By: MoneyMetals
The single-digit approval rating of Congress means precious few people still expect much from the politicians running Washington DC.
Expectations should now ratchet even lower as representatives once again demonstrate just how far their words are from their deeds.
We’ll start with healthcare. The U.S. Senate failed in yet another effort to repeal and replace Obamacare. The prospects for reform any time soon are approaching zero.
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Monday, July 24, 2017
Saving Illinois: Getting More Bang for Its Bucks / Politics / Debt Crisis 2017
By: Ellen_Brown
Illinois is insolvent, unable to pay its bills. According to Moody’s, the state has $15 billion in unpaid bills and $251 billion in unfunded liabilities. Of these, $119 billion are tied to shortfalls in the state’s pension program. On July 6, 2017, for the first time in two years, the state finally passed a budget, after lawmakers overrode the governor’s veto on raising taxes. But they used massive tax hikes to do it – a 32% increase in state income taxes and 33% increase in state corporate taxes – and still Illinois’ new budget generates only $5 billion, not nearly enough to cover its $15 billion deficit.
Monday, July 24, 2017
Macbeth, King Lear and Trump / Politics / US Politics
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Mea culpa. Yesterday I wrote Scaramouche, Scaramouche, will you do the Fandango?, and not long after publishing it, I figured I missed the target I was going for. Not 100%, and it’s not all bad, as people’s reactions have confirmed, but…
The thing is, Trump’s nomination of Anthony Scaramucci as White House Communications Director was not the main point of my piece. Tempting, because everybody knows the Queen song, but not the main one, and it certainly shouldn’t have been the title of the piece.
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Sunday, July 23, 2017
Scaramucci Trump's Phase2 - Scaramouche, Scaramouche, Will You Do the Fandango? / Politics / US Politics
By: Raul_I_Meijer
So sorry to see Sean Spicer go, even if I never watch TV, so I only got snippets of his acting performances -and Melissa McCarthy’s. One of the very few SNL and other ‘comedy’ shows skids that was actually funny, in the same way that very few of the New York Times and Washington Post ‘articles’ on Trump have been actually news.
As I wrote to a friend earlier today, sure Spicer’s gone, but there’ll be other entertaining characters to replace him. Say what you will about the Trump administration, but never a dull moment. Having Mike Pence become president would kill all the fun.
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Thursday, July 20, 2017
Trump Has Found A Loophole To Rewrite Trade Agreements Without Anyone’s Permission / Politics / Protectionism
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : Last summer at the Camp Kotok economics retreat, I met a man who has done business with The Trump Organization and with Trump himself.
He said Trump scrupulously followed the law in all their deals. He also added Trump would often insert innocent-looking contract clauses that later harmed the other side.
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Wednesday, July 19, 2017
How Steel Became US Security Concern – and Global Trade War Threat / Politics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
As the White House seeks to turn steel overcapacity into a national security matter, the issue is alienating not only China but America’s NATO allies.'They're dumping steel and destroying our steel industry, they've been doing it for decades, and I'm stopping it. It'll stop,' US President Donald Trump declared during a recent flight from the US to France. “There are two ways: quotas and tariffs. Maybe I'll do both,” he added at the eve of his administration’s first Sino-US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue (CED), also known as Diplomatic and Security Dialogue (D&SD).
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Wednesday, July 19, 2017
Discover Why A Major American Revolution Is Brewing / Politics / US Politics
By: Harry_Dent
I have written many articles on how extremely polarized our politics has become in the last decade. I’ve dedicated several Leading Edge newsletters to the topic. I talked about it at our 2016 Irrational Economic Summit. I even discuss it briefly in my new book, Trump, Brexit, and the Next Civil War, which will be available around mid-August.I talk about it so much because it’s related to the mega 250-Year Revolution Cycle sweeping over us right now. We’ll feel the effects of this cycle for decades to come… which I detail in my new book.
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Tuesday, July 18, 2017
Accepting a Society of Government Tyranny / Politics / US Politics
By: BATR
Rational thinking and moral conduct are rare in a society that has no respect for other individuals or succumb to the dictates of an all powerful government. Without free will, the dignity of the person is removed from the social relationship. Tyranny is not simply a state of mind, but is an imposition of compulsion designed to control the behavior of subjects of whatever form of government claiming legitimate rule.
Monday, July 17, 2017
Perfect Storm - This Fourth Turning has Over a Decade of Continuous Storms to Come / Politics / Social Issues
By: James_Quinn
Several weeks ago I had to drive west on the Pennsylvania Turnpike to pick up my son after his sophomore year at Penn State. I’ve made this trip a dozen times over the last few years, since this is my second son attending Penn State, with a third starting in the Fall. It’s a tedious, boring, protracted, four hour trek through the rural countryside of the Keystone State. During these trips my mind wanders, making connections between the landscape and the pressing issues facing the world. I can’t help but get lost in my thoughts as the miles accumulate like dollars on the national debt clock.
More often than not I end up making the trip in the midst of bad weather. And this time was no different. The Pennsylvania Turnpike is a meandering, decades old, dangerous, mostly two lane highway for most of its 360 mile span. Large swaths of the decaying interstate are under construction, as the narrative about lack of infrastructure spending is proven false by visual proof along the highways and byways of America.
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Friday, July 14, 2017
Trump’s Trade Policies Are Provoking A Global Trade War— How to Hedge Your Portfolio / Politics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON :Removing barriers to international trade has both upside and downside. Donald Trump is now president in part because he focused on the downside: lost US jobs, closed factories, blighted communities.
Even more important, he's fundamentally changing the way government looks at trade policy.
Trade negotiations have long had the implicit goal of promoting peace. It’s a fact that nations with active business relationships rarely attack each other, though the security aspect used to stay mostly unspoken.
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