Analysis Topic: Politics & Social Trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, September 25, 2017
Here’s Why Turkey Can’t Stay Out Of Syria / Politics / Middle East
By: John_Mauldin
By Jacob L. Shapiro, Mauldin Economics : Turkey has tried not to be involved in Syria since the Syrian civil war began.
Instead, it preferred to work diplomatic angles or prop up proxies on the ground. But unseen forces keep pulling Turkey into Syria. Forces that date back to the times of the Byzantines and Ottomans.
It appears that the Turks can no longer resist, and that their security demands a more hands-on approach.
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Monday, September 25, 2017
A Constitutional Anniversary to Forget / Politics / US Politics
By: Antonius_Aquinas
While not a jubilee year, last week marked the 230th anniversary of the US Constitution. Naturally, most of its devotees enthusiastically praised the document which by now is seen on a par with Holy Writ itself. An editorial from Investor’s Business Daily provides an example of such hagiography:
Read full article... Read full article...The Constitution’s beauty is that it not only delineates our rights
as Americans, but expressly limits and defines government’s ability
to interfere in our private lives. This equipoise between citizens’
duties, responsibilities and rights makes it the defining document
or our nation’s glorious freedom.
But America is wonderful largely because of the Constitution and
those who framed it . . . .
What we have is too precious to squander . . . .*
Sunday, September 24, 2017
Catalonia, Kurdistan, Patriotism, Flags and Referendums / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: Raul_I_Meijer
‘Tis the jolly time of elections, referendums, flags and other democracy-related issues. They are all linked in some way or another, even if that’s not always obvious. Elections, in New Zealand and Germany this weekend, referendums in Catalonia and Kurdistan the coming week, a looming Party Congress in China, quarrels about a flag in the US and then there’s always Brexit.
About China: the Congress is only in October, Xi Jinping looks sure to broaden his powers even more, and it ain’t all that democratic, but we should still follow it, if only because party officials will be either demoted or promoted, and some of them govern more people than most kings, queens, presidents and prime ministers. They say everything’s bigger in Texas, but in China everything really is. Including debt.
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Friday, September 22, 2017
South Korea Dispute Throws Wrench In US War Plans / Politics / South Korea
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Last May at Mauldin Economics’ Strategic Investment Conference, I predicted that the crisis in North Korea would likely lead to war. The crisis ensued, but war has not broken out.
With a top US official saying the Pentagon might have to handle this crisis, it’s time to review what has happened and whether war is really an option now.
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Thursday, September 21, 2017
Why US Missile Defense Won’t Likely Protect Us from a North Korea Attack / Politics / North Korea
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEOPOLITICAL FUTURES : The prospect that North Korea could fire missiles at its enemies has shed light on ways potential targets could defend themselves. And when it comes to missiles, some say the best defense is more missiles.
Ballistic missile defense (BMD) seems like a natural antidote, and though these systems have been in use for some time—and some have even intercepted their targets—the security they promise could hardly be considered absolute.
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Wednesday, September 20, 2017
Really Bad Ideas, Part 4: US Federal Flood Insurance / Politics / US Politics
By: John_Rubino
As Hurricanes Harvey and Irma wreaked their havoc over the past couple of weeks, several interconnected questions popped up, the answers to which make us look, to put it bluntly, like idiots.
Why, for instance, are there suddenly so many Cat 4 and 5 hurricanes? Is this due to man-made climate change and is this summer therefore our new normal? The answer: Maybe, but that misses the point. There have always been huge storms (like the one that wiped Galveston, TX off the map in 1900, long before global warming was a thing), and barring another ice age there always will be. So the US east coast will remain one of Mother Nature’s favorite targets.
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Tuesday, September 19, 2017
In 10 Years, Your State May Well Be in the Same Place Where Puerto Rico is Now / Politics / Debt Crisis 2017
By: John_Mauldin
This is the first time on record that two Category 4 hurricanes have struck the US mainland in the same year.
Worse, Harvey and Irma landed on some of our most valuable and vulnerable coastal areas. So now, besides all the problems, the US economy has to absorb the cleanup and rebuilding costs for large parts of Texas and Florida, as well as our Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands territories.
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Tuesday, September 19, 2017
How To Resolve the Korean Conundrum / Politics / North Korea
By: Dan_Steinbock
As the US policy has failed in the Korean Peninsula, dark scenarios cast a shadow over the region – but could also pave way for peace. Recently, U.S. UN Ambassador Nikki Haley called for “the strongest sanctions” to pressure North Korea into giving up its nuclear arsenal “before it's too late.”
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Tuesday, September 19, 2017
A World Doomed to a Never Ending War / Politics / War on Terror
By: BATR
Are you disappointed with Donald Trump's bellicose continuing with the deployment in Afghanistan? Well, if you are not; you should be. Predicting a non-ideological President, who prides himself on making pragmatic decisions, raises prognostication to a new level of mystical proportions. Instilling hope during an election campaign seldom translates into dynamic action on every pledge made. Defending Trump no matter how many times he walks back on a promise is not the standard to judge his administration. Call him a turnaround artist if you wish, but the reality of the power elite inside the military, intelligence agencies and the state department is showing just how far they are willing to go to maintain their force of destructive rule.
Monday, September 18, 2017
The Sum of Risks – Global, Strategic, Political, and Financial / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: Raymond_Matison
Never before, not since the founding of America even including our Civil War of the 1860’s, not in the history of the entire world has a confluence of risks risen and coalesced to the degree that makes the next few years the most dangerous on this planet since monkeys evolved to walking upright. Immense risks are prevalent in America, Europe, Middle East, and Asia – essentially covering most of our globe.
Sunday, September 17, 2017
Who Has Shaped the World the Most? The Dozen Greatest Achievers / Politics / Education
By: Stephen_Merrill
As tough Teddy Roosevelt famously said more than hundred years ago:
“It is not the critic who counts; …. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, …. who does actually strive to do the deeds …. who .... best knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement ....”
Who have been the top movers and shakers prevailing in the global arena?
It is a lasting result that counts the most in achieving things in broad social terms. Never great style only, ala JFK. Seldom genius alone, at least in things social.
Friday, September 15, 2017
US Government’s Promised Entitlements Exceed the Budget Seven Times in Some States / Politics / US Debt
By: John_Mauldin
The US government balance sheet features $80 trillion to $200 trillion in unfunded liabilities. This amount stems from future entitlement program burdens that are, in effect, government promises.
No one is going to vote to reduce their entitlements. (Well, other than the very well-off, who don’t actually need those entitlements.)
Unfunded pension liabilities at the state and local have swollen to roughly $4–$6 trillion in the United States. And that may be understating the severity of the problem.
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Friday, September 15, 2017
Trump’s Path to IP Wars / Politics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
As the White House is about to escalate trade friction in intellectual property, it has opted for a flawed, partisan approach. In mid-August, President Trump asked U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, a veteran Reagan administration trade hawk, to open an investigation into China's intellectual property (IP) practices.
The first public hearing about Chinese trade conduct is scheduled for October 10 in Washington.
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Thursday, September 14, 2017
The Only Real Europe is Greece / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Raul_I_Meijer
European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, famous for his imbibition capacity and uttering -not necessarily in that order- the legendary words “when it becomes serious, you have to lie”, presented his State of the Union today. Which is of pretty much limited interest because, as Yanis Varoufakis’ book ‘Adults in the Room’ once again confirmed, Juncker is nothing but ventriloquist Angela Merkel’s sock puppet.
But of course he had lofty words galore, about how great Europe is doing, and how that provides a window for more Europe, in multiple dimensions. Juncker envisions a European Minister of Finance (Dutch PM Rutte immediately scorned the idea), and he wants to enlarge the EU by inviting more countries in, like Albania, Montenegro and Serbia (but not Turkey!).
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Tuesday, September 12, 2017
September Will Be The Most Politically Unstable Month Of This Year / Politics / US Politics
By: John_Mauldin
This month will be busy for us macro monitors.
The FOMC meets September 19–20 and will likely hike rates another notch, launch its balance-sheet-reduction plan, or both. I will be very surprised if they don’t do either.
The greater suspense is elsewhere in Washington.
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Tuesday, September 12, 2017
Red China is a Creation of Globalists / Politics / China
By: BATR
If one is blind to the truthful account of history, understanding of current events will never break the mind controlled barrier of sanitized awareness. The globalists or whatever synonym name you choose personifies the forces behind the screens that shape the political, economic and cultural impositions on the world. China has not been immune to the infliction of obscurity in the implementation of what actually is driving their regime. As the old Chinese curse has it: “May you live in interesting times”, has proven to be much more than a platitude, it is a model for planetary enslavement. How did this conquest begin and where is it going?
Monday, September 11, 2017
The United States of Hubris / Politics / US Politics
By: Antonius_Aquinas
If anyone should have any questions about whether the United States of America is not the most aggressive, warlike, and terroristic nation on the face of the earth, its latest proposed action against the supposed rogue state of North Korea should allay any such doubts.
Last week, the US circulated a draft resolution which it intends to present to the UN Security Council that would give the American Navy and Air Force the power to interdict North Korean ships at sea to determine if they were transporting “weaponry material” or fuel and that US forces would be given “the right” to use “all necessary measures” to “enforce compliance.”*
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Sunday, September 10, 2017
Only Political Dividing Line Left, Roots Based Politics / Politics / US Politics
By: Richard_Mills
Because of the rise of Globalism in the late 20th century the U.S. and Western Europe have recently seen stirrings of nationalist awakenings. Terrorism, turmoil in the Middle East and waves of Muslim refugees have fueled the trend.
Wikipedia says this about Nationalism; “a nation should govern itself, free from unwanted outside interference, and is linked to the concept of self-determination. Nationalism is further oriented towards developing and maintaining a national identity based on shared characteristics such as culture, language, race, religion, political goals or a belief in a common ancestry. Nationalism therefore seeks to preserve the nation's culture. It often also involves a sense of pride in the nation's achievements, and is closely linked to the concept of patriotism.”
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Friday, September 08, 2017
Object Lesson: War on Cash Backfires on India’s Economy / Politics / War on Cash
By: MoneyMetals
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched a surprise attack on cash in late 2016. He gave Indians a few days to convert the two largest denomination bills then circulating to bank deposits, after which point any undeposited notes would become worthless. The move was intensely controversial. Transactions completed using cash represented the vast majority of economic activity in the country.
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Friday, September 08, 2017
If America exits the Paris Accord, climate risks will intensify for emerging Asia / Politics / Climate Change
By: Dan_Steinbock
Even before Irma and its successors, Typhoon Hato and Hurricane Harvey caused massive devastation from the US to Asia. If America will withdraw from the Paris climate agreement, emerging Asia will pay the highest price.As I left Manila, tropical storm Isang passed the Batanes area in northern Philippines. When I flew to Guangzhou, the low-pressure area morphed into a tropical depression southeast to Taiwan and then into a typhoon in the South China Sea. On August 23, Hato’s eye was directly over Hong Kong as rapid intensification turned it into a category 3-equivalent typhoon. Days later, Hato had left behind 26 people killed, and damages amounting to $1.9 billion in mainland China.
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