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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, January 08, 2018

UK Base Interest Rate Rise Aftermath Sees Mortgage Competition Slow / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: MoneyFacts

Moneyfacts UK Mortgage Trends Treasury Report data (not yet published) reveals a sharp slowdown in mortgage competition, just two short months after the Bank of England increased the base rate.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, January 05, 2018

European Bonds Are 2018’s Number One Risk / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : No shortage of stupid things these days:

  • Bitcoin
  • Litecoin
  • Pizzacoin
  • Canadian real estate
  • Swedish real estate
  • Australian real estate
  • FANG
  • Venture capital
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Interest-Rates

Thursday, December 21, 2017

If You Want To Get Rich, Invest In T-Bills, Not FANGs Or Bitcoin / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : Demand curves are usually downward-sloping. That’s because people will buy more of a product when it is cheaper and less of it when it is more expensive.

Some things—like stocks and especially bitcoin—have upward-sloping demand curves, which should be theoretically impossible. But they happen in the real world. People really want bitcoin when it is expensive, but nobody was interested when it was cheap.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, December 15, 2017

Trends in the U.S. Unemployment rate and the U.S. Yield curve / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Donald_W_Dony

The trends in both the U.S. Unemployment rate and the U.S. Yield curve are linked to similar economic pressures.

The Unemployment rate rises and falls due to a number of key reasons and reflects the changes in the economy.

The U.S. Yield curve acts as a tool for the Fed to conduct its monetary policy in its goal for the long-term health (ie stable prices and sustainable employment) of the economy.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Which Central Bank Will Go Under First When the Everything Bubble Bursts? / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Graham_Summers

In the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, Central Banks began cornering the sovereign bond market via Zero or even Negative interest rates and Quantitative Easing (QE) programs.

The goal here was to reflate the financial system by pushing the “risk free rate” to extraordinary lows. By doing this, Central Bankers were hoping to:

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

A Former Wall Street Veteran: Good Traders Are Born, Not Trained / Interest-Rates / Learn to Trade

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : Some people are better with money than others. Is it nature or nurture?

What I mean is: Can investing be taught, or does it come naturally?

I’m going to make a very controversial statement. Financial acumen is almost entirely nature. You are born with it.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 11, 2017

Soaring Deficits Force US Treasury into Foolish Debt Gamble / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Michael_Pento

The Treasury opened the fiscal year 2018 with an October budget deficit of $63.2 billion. That is 37.9% larger than the $45.8 billion deficit in October of last year. The primary reason behind this surge in year-over-year deficits was a 21.6% increase in net interest expenses. The annual red-ink problem looks even greater when recognizing that the national debt is already over 105% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), at nearly $21 trillion, and with an additional $10 trillion projected to be added in the next ten years.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, December 09, 2017

Jerome Powell vs. Janet Yellen / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

As expected, Donald Trump nominated Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair. He is often perceived as a merely Republican version of Yellen. But is that really the case? Let’s analyze in a more detailed way what impact on gold Powell’s term as the head of the U.S. central bank would mean for the gold market.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 05, 2017

Central Banks Won’t See Our Sympathy / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Rodney_Johnson

It’s official. Lending institutions are having a tough time making loans.

Don’t get me wrong, they still make money the old fashioned way: by borrowing from us through deposits on which they pay almost no interest, and then lending it long term to anyone that qualifies. But they’ve had to jack up their other fees because the traditional business plan just isn’t cutting it.
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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

The $76 Trillion Bond Market Is Forecasting Inflation. Are You Ready? / Interest-Rates / Inflation

By: Graham_Summers

This year, (2017) was the year that the financial system moved from fearing deflation to expecting inflation.

You can see this in the breakout in inflation expectations. From 2013 until mid-2016, the financial system’s expectations of future inflation were in a downtrend. Mid-2016 this changed as expectations began to rise, breaking this downtrend in early 2017.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

The Fed Is at the Height of Monetary Policy Lunacy / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: John_Mauldin

How often do central bankers, regulators, corporate leaders, lawyers, politicians, and ordinary investors make the same mistakes over and over again? All the time.

If we stopped erasing our memories and for once learned from our mistakes, we might make better progress. But no, we must always step on the same rake.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

New Fed Chairman, Same Old Story / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Kelsey_Williams

President Trump nominated Jerome H. Powell as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank. Don’t look for much to change. And Janet Yellen’s announcement that she will resign from the board upon Mr. Powell’s induction as board chair is pretty much a non-event.

Where we are today is the culmination of decades of irresponsible financial/fiscal policies and a complete abdication of fundamental economics. But that should not be a surprise. The self-proclaimed purpose of the Federal Reserve Bank is to manage the economic cycles. This is an impossibly presumptive task and a violation of fundamental economic theory.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

US Bond Market Operation Twist by Another Name and Method? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

The TIP/IEF ‘inflation gauge’ is still motoring upward after breaking above the SMA 200. If this turns the 200 up along with the MA 50 it could indicate a mini hysteria about inflation.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, November 20, 2017

Soaring Deficits Force US Treasury into Foolish Debt Gamble / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Michael_Pento

The Treasury opened the fiscal year 2018 with an October budget deficit of $63.2 billion. That is 37.9% larger than the $45.8 billion deficit in October of last year. The primary reason behind this surge in year-over-year deficits was a 21.6% increase in net interest expenses. The annual red-ink problem looks even greater when recognizing that the national debt is already over 105% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), at nearly $21 trillion, and with an additional $10 trillion projected to be added in the next ten years.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, November 19, 2017

Next-Generation Crazy: The Fed Plans For The Coming Recession / Interest-Rates / Recession 2018

By: John_Rubino

Insanity, like criminality, usually starts small and expands with time. In the Fed’s case, the process began in the 1990s with a series of (in retrospect) relatively minor problems running from Mexico’s currency crisis thorough Russia’s bond default, the Asian Contagion financial crisis, the Long Term Capital Management collapse and finally the Y2K computer bug.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, November 17, 2017

The Fed Isn’t “Confused” About Inflation… It WANTS You In the Dark! / Interest-Rates / Inflation

By: Graham_Summers

The Fed claims it’s “confused” as to why inflation remains so low.

The Fed isn’t confused at all. It intentionally measures inflation in ridiculous ways to guarantee that the “official number” remains nowhere near reality.

On top of this, we have factual evidence that Fed is in fact well aware that inflation is clocking in well above its 2% “target.”

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 09, 2017

Prepare For Interest Rate Rises And Global Debt Bubble Collapse / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2017

By: GoldCore

– Diversify, rebalance investments and prepare for interest rate rises
– UK launches inquiry into household finances as £200bn debt pile looms
– Centuries of data forewarn of rapid reversal from ultra low interest rates
– 700-year average real interest rate is 4.78% (must see chart)
– Massive global debt bubble – over $217 trillion (see table)
– Global debt levels are building up to a gigantic tidal wave
– Move to safe haven higher ground from coming tidal wave

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, November 08, 2017

If This Bond Market Line Breaks, We’re in Serious Trouble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

Let’s talk about Junk Bonds.

Junk Bonds are corporate debt issued by companies that have a significant chance of defaulting (meaning they don’t pay you back).

Why would anyone want to lend these companies money?

Because these bonds are risky, they typically pay very large yields to compensate for the increased risk. Think yields of 8% or even 10%.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, November 08, 2017

Here’s Why The Market Mispriced Jay Powell / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : Jay Powell has been named the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Provided he survives the confirmation process, it is a done deal.

This wasn’t the easiest pick for Trump. It’s not easy to find a Republican who is also in favor of low interest rates. Powell isn’t exactly a dove, but he’s significantly more dovish than John Taylor.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 02, 2017

Bank of England Hikes UK Interest Rates 100%, Reversing BREXIT PANIC Cut! / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Bank of England with much forewarning hiked UK interest rates by 100% today, raising the base interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5%. However, before everyone starts to panic that this heralds the start towards of rates rising to pre 2008 levels, instead the reality is that all that the Bank of England has done is to reverse the PANIC BREXIT INTEREST RATE CUT of August 2016. Which had seen the Bank of England cut interest rates to there lowest levels in the Bank of England's 320 year history. Which followed over 7 years of rates being held at 0.5% the duration of which had seen virtually ALL economists reveal the true extent of their ineptitude as they had collectively consistently forecast that UK Interest rates were always just about to head higher, that a a series of rate hikes were always just months away, which not only never materialised but culminated in the reality of a RATE CUT last year!

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