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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Friday, October 06, 2017

Stunning U.S. Government Debt Increase In Past Few Days…. While No One Noticed / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Steve_St_Angelo

As the stock market continues to rise on the back of some of the worst geopolitical, financial, and domestic news, the U.S. Treasury has been quietly increasing the amount of government debt, with virtually no coverage by the Mainstream or Alternative Media.  So, how much has the U.S. debt increased in the past few days?   A bunch.

The surge in U.S. debt that took place over the past two days all started when the debt ceiling limit was officially allowed to increase on Sept 8th.  In just one day, the U.S. Treasury increased the public debt by $318 billion:

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 02, 2017

The Fed Knew QE Wouldn’t Work From The Start / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: John_Mauldin

When is a mystery not a mystery? When Janet Yellen is puzzling over a lack of inflation, that’s when. So says Brian Wesbury, chief economist, and Robert Stein, deputy chief economist of First Trust, in the following essay (featured in my Outside the Box).

The bottom line: QE didn’t work—and Janet knew it was unlikely to work—from the start.

So where did all that easy money go? I think I’ll let the authors tell you. I think you’ll enjoy this brief, clear-headed essay.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, September 30, 2017

Kevin Warsh May Be the Next Fed Head—Let’s See What He Really Thinks / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: F_F_Wiley

As reported earlier this morning by the Wall Street Journal, President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin met with Kevin Warsh yesterday to discuss the potential vacancy at the Fed next February.

Warsh already has central banking experience, having sat on the Federal Open Market Committee as a Fed governor from February 2006 until March 2011.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, September 23, 2017

Calling the UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Bonds Low ... Where Is Yield Heading Next? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Calling the UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Bonds Low ... Where Is Yield Heading Next?

On September 6, with the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) reaching a new low (33.32) in its 7-month corrective process, we noted that "Dec-Sep correction could be at or nearing a downside exhaustion."

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, September 23, 2017

How Will We Be Affected by a Series of Rate Hikes? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

The current federal funds rate is 1.00% – 1.25%. The Fed started raising interest rates in December 2015, when they were at a historic low of 0.25%. Since then, 4 rate hikes have been implemented, each valued at 25-basis points. Today, the federal funds rate (FFR) is inching towards the 1.25% – 1.50% level. The average interest rate in the US between 1971 and 2017 was 5.77%. It peaked at 20% in 1980 and dropped to an all-time low of 0.25% after the global financial crisis of 2008. Interest rates are especially important when it comes to monetary policy.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, September 22, 2017

Pensions and Debt Time Bomb In UK: £1 Trillion Crisis Looms / Interest-Rates / UK Debt

By: GoldCore

– £1 trillion crisis looms as pensions deficit and consumer loans snowball out of control
– UK pensions deficit soared by £100B to £710B, last month
– £200B unsecured consumer credit “time bomb” warn FCA
– 8.3 million people in UK with debt problems
– 2.2 million people in UK are in financial distress
– ‘President Trump land’ there is a savings gap of $70 trillion
– Global problem as pensions gap of developed countries growing by $28B per dayp>

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Interest-Rates

Friday, September 15, 2017

The US Debt Bubble Will Soon Warrant Serious Measures / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

There is big debate over the exact amount of global debt.

Parts of it get hidden in many out-of-the-way pockets. But broadly speaking, global debt is about 325% of GDP, and likely over $225 trillion as I write.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, September 15, 2017

US Budget Deficit Swindling Futurity / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: James_Quinn

“The principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale.”Thomas Jefferson

Yesterday the government reported a “modest” August budget deficit of $108 billion. That’s one month folks. This is another example of how the government and their mainstream media mouthpieces portray horrifically bad, extremely abnormal financial data as normal and expected. They pretend everything that has happened since 2008 is just standard operating procedure. They follow the Big Lie theory to the extreme. The masses have been so dumbed down, desensitized, and taught to believe delusions, they can’t distinguish the abnormal from the normal.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 14, 2017

US Drowning in Debt, Surpasses $20 Trillion As Bankruptcy and Hyperinflation Loom Closer / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Jeff_Berwick

The US government finally surpassed the long anticipated $20 trillion national debt mark on Friday the 8th.

Oh, I don’t say “finally” because they had so restricted their expenditures that it was taking longer than expected. That’s far from the case!

In fact, under globalist, Donald “Big Government” Trump, the federal government had its largest deficit month in history in June topping $400 billion for the first time.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Trump Suggests Eliminating the Debt Ceiling – Dollar Falls / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: MoneyMetals

Those who paid any attention to the financial press last week saw the following narrative; President Donald Trump betrayed Republicans by cutting a deal with Democrats Nancy Pelosi and Charles Schumer. They agreed to punt on the borrowing cap until December and spend $15 billion for hurricane relief.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, September 10, 2017

Hurricane Trump Blowing the Debt Ceiling Roof Off / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Peter_Schiff

Of all the absurd Washington pantomimes none has been as reliably entertaining and maddening as the annual debates to raise the debt ceiling. Although the outcome was always a foregone conclusion (the ceiling would be raised), the excitement came when fiscal conservatives bemoaned the perils of runaway debt and “attempted” to exact spending restrictions through threats “to shut down the government,” (which often led to news coverage of tourists being turned away from national parks.) On the other side of the aisle Democrats would rail that the ceiling must be raised “because America always pays her bills.” Lost was the irony that “paying” bills with borrowed money was fiscally responsible, and that raising the ceiling actually enabled America to continue to avoid paying its bills. After these amateur theatrics, the ceiling would be lifted and Washington would go on as if nothing happened. But at least the performance threw occasional light on the nation’s debt problems.
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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 07, 2017

Forecasting US 30-Year Treasury Bond Yields / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Francois_Soto

The movement of interest rates affects lenders and creditors across global markets while influencing key variables such as output, employment, etc.

We predict the US Generic 30-Year Treasuries Yield using a selection of macroeconomic variables chosen from hundreds of time series available.

We trade US1 future contracts based on the differential between the regression output and the actual yield and this strategy is profitable.

Interest rates are an important monetary policy tool to gauge the state of the economy and for policy makers to act accordingly. Per its definition, it is the rate at which interest is paid by a borrower for the use of money. The movement of interest rates affects lenders and creditors across global markets while influencing key variables such as output, employment, consumption, etc.
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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 07, 2017

Yet Another Theory of the Fed? Uggh! / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: F_F_Wiley

The world hardly needs another theory of the Fed, especially so soon after its Jackson Hole symposium. But we have a theory, too, and who knows, ours could be as close to the bulls-eye as any of the others. Plus, our theory is easy to explain—it rests on the simple premise that decision makers worry mostly about their reputations. We’ll propose that reputational risks are the primary drivers of central bank policies, and then we’ll use that belief to predict a major policy shift.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 31, 2017

The Demise Of Libor Is Part Of A Massive Global Trend That Many Overlook / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System

By: John_Mauldin

BY XANDER SNYDER : For decades, the public put its trust in technocrats.

The thinking was that the economy and politics had become too complex for ordinary citizens to understand. And that the best way to handle it was to allow the experts to take over.

They were perceived to be skillful and knowledgeable enough to manage economically and politically important institutions (including banks).

The events of 2008–2009 shattered that belief.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

President Trump and ... the Interest Rate Yield Curve? Video / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: EWI

This chart offers a completely different take on the question of why President Trump's approval is falling.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, August 27, 2017

Jackson Hole and the Appalachians / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Raul_I_Meijer

The Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers and other economics big shots is on again. They all still like themselves very much. Apart from a pesky inflation problem that none of them can get a grip on, they publicly maintain that they’re doing great, and they’re saving the planet (doing God’s work is already taken).

But the inflation problem lies in the fact that they don’t know what inflation is, and they’re just as knowledgeable when it comes to all other issues. They get sent tons of numbers and stats, and then compare these to their economic models. They don’t understand economics, and they’re not interested in trying to understand it. All they want is for the numbers to fit the models, and if they don’t, get different numbers.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 23, 2017

How Planned Fed Rate Increases Impact The National Debt & Deficits / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Dan_Amerman

The United States national debt is currently about $20 trillion, and the federal government is paying some of the lowest interest rates in history on that debt. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates four times now, and is publicly considering another five increases, for a total increase of roughly 2.25%.

What will be the impact on the national debt and deficits if the interest payments on the debt jump upwards because of the actions of the Fed?

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, August 20, 2017

Whoever Gets Appointed to the Fed, Expect Negative Rates and QE in the Next Crisis / Interest-Rates / Negative Interest Rates

By: John_Mauldin

Janet Yellen’s current turn at the chair expires in February.

Who will be running the Fed next year, and will it matter? How will new leadership change anything?

Trump could renominate her but hasn’t yet announced a decision or even given a hint.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 17, 2017

The War on Cash - Rogoff, Orwell and Kafka / Interest-Rates / War on Cash

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Harvard professor and chess grandmaster Kenneth Rogoff has said some pretty out there stuff before, in his role as self-appointed crusader against cash, but apparently he’s not done yet. In fact, he might just be getting started. This time around he sounds like a crossover between George Orwell and Franz Kafka, with a serving of ‘theater of the absurd’ on top. Rogoff wants to give central banks total control over your lives. They must decide what you do with your money. First and foremost, they must make it impossible for you to save your money from their disastrous policies, so they are free to create more mayhem.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 10, 2017

Really Bad Ideas - Government Debt Isn’t Actually Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Rubino

The failure of fiat currency and fractional reserve banking to produce a government-managed utopia is generating very few mea culpas, but lots of rationalizations.

Strangest of all these rationalizations might be the notion that government debt is not really a liability, but an asset. Where personal and business loans are bad if taken to excess, government borrowing is not just good on any scale, but necessary to a healthy economy. Here’s an excerpt from a particularly assertive version of this argument:

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