Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Tuesday, December 15, 2015
Is This Just the Beginning of the Euro Debt Crisis? / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
I've been shocked over how much QE and stimulus the central banks have signed on for in the last seven years, but they’re finally starting to reach their limit.The U.S. already did in 2014 when the Fed finally tapered. And this week, the markets are betting on a rate hike – never mind the trouble brewing in China, other emerging markets, and now Europe.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 14, 2015
Janet Yellen, U.S. Zero Interest Rates - Déjà vu all over Again / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
Janet Yellen will increase interest rates for the first time in nine years on Wednesday. She isn’t raising them because the economy is strengthening. The economy just happens to be weakening rapidly, as global recession takes hold. The stock market is 3% lower than it was in December 2014, and has basically done nothing since the end of QE3. Wall Street is throwing a hissy fit to try and stop Janet from boosting rates by an inconsequential .25%. Janet would prefer not to raise rates, but the credibility and reputation of her bubble blowing machine is at stake. The Fed has enriched their Wall Street benefactors over the last six years, while destroying the real economy and the middle class.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 12, 2015
Soaring Bond Yields - This Is How Fast It Happens / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds
For a while there, companies deemed to be highly risky were nonetheless able to borrow money for less than 6%. And borrow they did. Frackers, ultra-high-leverage retail chains and various other close-to-the-edge entities slurped up trillions from yield-starved investors who had forgotten about the other side of the risk/return equation.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 10, 2015
Currency Markets Anticipating a U.S. Interest Rate Hike Next Week / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
Watching the price action in the currency markets it is becoming clearer to me that the Forex crowd has now moved beyond any expected rate hike by the Fed next week and has shifted its focus to "WHAT COMES AFTER THAT?"
In other words, we have probably seen the high in the US Dollar for a bit since the impact on the currency has effectively already been discounted into its price. Seeing the Fed Funds futures showing a probability of a Fed rate hike next week above 80%, for all practical trading purposes, it is now a done deal.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 09, 2015
Government Debt Is Not Like Private Debt / Interest-Rates / UK Debt
Simon Wilson writesL As the Labour Party fights with Tories over the need to slightly rein in government spending in the UK, opponents of even the slightest bit of austerity have turned out to claim that there is no virtue in “living within your means.”
In a recent article in The Guardian, Ha-Joon Chang, attacked even the Tory government’s timid claim that it wasn’t a great idea to spend more than the government collects in tax revenues. But for the new radical left Labour Party on whose behalf Chang’s article was written, this notion is as quaint as it is “simply wrong.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 09, 2015
Bank of Canada Announces Negative Interest Rates; Loonie Sinks to 2004 Low / Interest-Rates / Canadian $
The Canadian dollar, affectionately known as the loonie because of a loon on the one dollar coin, has crashed vs. the US dollar.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 08, 2015
Fed's Rocket Ship Turns Hoverboard / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
Over the past year, while the U.S. economy has continually missed expectations, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen has assured all who could stay awake during her press conferences that it was strong enough to withstand tighter monetary policy. In delivering months of mildly tough talk (with nothing in the way of action), Yellen began stressing that WHEN the Fed would finally raise rates (for the first time in almost a decade) was not nearly as important as how fast and how high the increases would be once they started. Not only did this blunt the criticism of those who felt that the delays were unnecessary, and in fact dangerous, but it also began laying the groundwork for the Fed to do nothing over a much longer time period. To the delight of investors, the Fed has telegraphed that it will adopt a "low and slow" trajectory for the foreseeable future and move, in the words of Larry Kudlow, like "an injured snail."
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 08, 2015
A Peek Behind the Fed Policy Curtain / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
This article was originally and simply titled ‘Market Management’ as the opening segment from this week’s NFTRH 372. We then covered US and global stock markets and precious metals in detail, along with brief but ongoing negativity about commodities (but also what to look for regarding signs of change), a currency update and extensive market sentiment and indicator updates.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 06, 2015
The Fed, Lindbergh and Scientifically Created Depressions / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
Transcript: non-farm payroll came out yesterday on Friday iraqi amount of 211,000 was expected 200,000 so it better than expected number unemployment rate stayed at five percent in the previous number was revised higher to 298,000 from 271 so it's a good number stock market went there and finish up just under three hundred and seventy points to sense and yeah gordon supra surprisingly went up more than 2% gold was up 25 bucks and it closed above he 1070 level finish around 1086 silver finish more than 40 cents at 14 goals 25 I think so yeah pretty encouraging buy...
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 04, 2015
Bill Gross: Fed is "Certainly Set to Go" / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
Bill Gross of Janus Capital Management joined Bloomberg Radio and Television to react to today's jobs report.
Gross said the Federal Reserve is "certainly set to go…Fed is ready to go I think because of concerns on the real economy."
When asked if he lost money yesterday, Gross said: " Oh no, made money yesterday. I had lots of calls, sold lots of calls on five and 10-year German bunds, went the other way this time and so made a lot of money, making a lot of money today on those particular trades."
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 04, 2015
Does Draghi's Coup Secure Yellen's Interest Rate Liftoff? / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates
To some, the ECB has underdelivered today by not only cutting rates by a smaller than expected 0.10 bp in the deposit rate to -0.3% from -0.2% (vs exp -0.4%) but also disappointed most market players by only extending the duration of QE to an additional 6 months and not adding to the monthly $60 bn QE. The ECB's decision to opt for QE extension rather than QE expansion reflects the broad signs of improvement in German growth business surveys. Germany's IFO and various Eurozone PMIs and confidence surveys have hit 17 to 52-month highs.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 04, 2015
U.S. Dollar and Bonds Sink as ECB Cuts Rates to -0.3%, Pledging More QE Until March 2017 / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates
ECB president Mario Draghi's announcement today regarding more QE fell far short of the sky-high expectations of market participants.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 01, 2015
Fed's Yellen Running Out of Makeup - Video / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
It's Tuesday before non-farm payroll which is coming out on Friday but it's been an interesting day in the markets we've had some interesting data in the us- the manufacturing I assume PM. number came out of 48 points, was forecast to come out and it dropped from 50 the previous month so that's quite a big drop in its below 50 which means a contraction so if you look at the headlines on Zero Hedge for example today we've had some interesting headlines about the US economy one of them says Atlanta Federal Reserve slashes fourth-quarter GDP forecast from 2.3 to 1.4.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 26, 2015
U.S. Bond Market Not Destined to Crash in 2015 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
Always do what you are afraid to do. Ralph Waldo Emerson
The trend in bonds was bullish for a long time, and one can see how bonds ran up during that time frame. Currently, its neutral and that also has to be viewed through a bullish lens as it should have turned negative given the run-up. Bonds need to close on a weekly basis above 160.00 relatively soon. In fact, there is a good chance that if the next run up fails to take out the August highs of 161-23, bonds will be paving the way for a move down to the 152.00 ranges and then 147-148 ranges. Traders willing to take on a bit of a risk could consider opening long positions at both levels. Some funds could be deployed at 152 or better and some at 148 or better. Market Update, Nov 1st, 2015.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 26, 2015
U.S. Federal Reserve Rate Hike / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 24, 2015
Fed’s Tarullo: U.S. Interest Rates Liftoff Should Wait for Signs of Inflation / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
Federal Reserve Board Governor Daniel Tarullo spoke with Bloomberg Television’s Stephanie Ruhle and David Westin on “Bloomberg <GO>” yesterday. He discussed when the Fed will begin raising rates and waiting for tangible signs of inflation before moving.
There’s “more than a pretty good chance” that banks will face “some net increase in the post-stress minimum capital requirements,” Tarullo said.
DAVID WESTIN: So we want to turn now to our special guest for this half hour, Federal Reserve Board Governor, Daniel Tarullo. Dan has been on the Fed now since 2009, I believe it is. He has served on the --
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 24, 2015
Janet Yellen Responds as a Central Banker Would / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
Let's try to untangle the web of Fed-speak going on here. "Reality" for our purposes is defined as my opinion, obviously.
Yellen Defends Seven Years of Low Interest Rates in Letter to Nader
Fed-Speak:
Warning that "an overly aggressive increase in rates would at most benefit savers only temporarily," she argued in the letter released Monday in Washington that the Fed's seven-year era of zero rates had sheltered American savers from dramatic declines in the value of their homes and retirement accounts.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 23, 2015
Will Fed Raise the Discount Interest Rate Today? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
Will the Fed raise its discount rate at its previously unscheduled meeting for today? Thursday's post on the Federal Reserve's website that "an expedited, unscheduled meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve to review the discount rate" will be held today (Monday) at 11:30 ET (16:30 London/GMT). The discount rate, the rate at which banks borrow from the Fed's discount window is set by the Board of Governors, rarely used by the banks. This must not be confused with the fed funds rates, which is set by the Federal Open Markets Committee.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 21, 2015
Will the Fed Raise U.S. Interest Rates on Monday, November 23, 2015? - Video / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
Earlier this morning I spoke about how the Fed will meet on Monday November 2015 even though the next meetings on December 16. They're having an expedited procedure or meeting which means their meeting in no rush and behind closed doors. It will be interesting to see what they do and might even raise rates this coming Monday even though that's very very unusual.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 19, 2015
Why Isn’t This Incredibly Bearish Bond Market Development Making the News? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By E.B. Tucker
Editor’s Note: This is one of the most important essays you’ll read all year. In this special edition of the Casey Daily Dispatch, E.B. Tucker shares an urgent warning you’re unlikely to hear anywhere else.
----------
Read full article... Read full article...