Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, November 07, 2011
Intermarket Bond Analysis, Why E.U. is Now a Full Blown Crisis / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Capital3X
Keying in on our earlier analysis on “Return of fear in Nov”
We look at key bond market spreads to understand ground trends on the Euro and risk rally which we have already termed it as a major fake.
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Monday, November 07, 2011
Sovereign Debt Crisis Canaries In The Mineshaft: Should Markets Be Apprehensive? / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: DK_Matai
1. The G20 summit in Cannes has not been able to deliver any meaningful solution to the Eurozone crisis. As the Breton prayer goes, "O Lord, thy sea is so great and my boat is so small!" The summit has confirmed that China, India and other emerging countries will neither be able and nor will they be willing to rescue the richer Eurozone nations. Also, the US is in no mood to roll out a second Marshall Plan on this occasion. The world has moved on since 1948. As one distinguished G20 summit attendee from the US told ATCA 5000, "if the Europeans are not going to take their fire engine out to put out their fires why should we lend them our fire engine? What happens if we have a mini-fire of our own in the meantime?" The much vaunted IMF solution also appears to have fizzled out, at least for the time being;
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Sunday, November 06, 2011
Laissez-faire: The Best Fed Policy Is To Stand Pat / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: EconMatters
Operation Twist through 2012, and keeping the benchmark interest rate near zero to at least mid-2013.
Nevertheless, the more important (albeit coded) message is how much more pessimistic the Fed has gotten just within the past five months. Below are the table from the Fed latest November economic forecast with the prior projection issued in June.
Sunday, November 06, 2011
Jim Grant’s Best Moments on Money, Banking & The Federal Reserve / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Aftab_Singh
As many of you may already know, the other day Ron Paul expressly mentioned that he would pick James Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer as chairman of the Fed if elected. We cannot conceive of a better candidate for that unfortunately frightful job! Jim Grant is just fantastically insightful when it comes to monetary matters and particularly knowledgeable on the history of money. So, for anyone that might be interested, here I present a short video of his best moments on money, banking and the Federal Reserve over the past few years. See below for the video:
Saturday, November 05, 2011
Greece isn't the problem, Italy is! / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Bob_Kirtley
Despite surviving a confidence vote (153-145)on Saturday which helped calm a revolt in his Socialist party, this is a hollow victory for the Greek prime Minister, George Papandreou
However the opposition leader, Antonis Samaras, who had demanded Papandreou resign to make way for a new government which would include members of any political party is non to pleased, as his proposals were rejected.
Saturday, November 05, 2011
Italy Moves One Step Closer to the Debt Crisis Endgame / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Ben_Traynor
Is there an alternative to monetizing Italy's debt…?
SO THE Italian government today asked the International Monetary Fund to monitor its reform program.
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Friday, November 04, 2011
Wondering About the Size of Greece Debt Exposure? / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Asha_Bangalore
Greek drama is now no longer confined to the literature class. The current Greek economic drama will be enshrined in economic history books and economic/financial policy studies. As the crisis has unfolded, it has been frequently challenging to find a succinct representation of the exposure to Greek debt. Thanks to the folks at the BBC, here is that picture.
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Friday, November 04, 2011
The Fed’s Forecast Begs for Action, Bernanke Hints at QE3 / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Asha_Bangalore
The main conclusion from Bernanke’s press conference on November 2 is that the Fed has two choices. QE3 (quantitative easing) is one option given the Fed’s gloomy forecast (see Table 1). The precise timing, magnitude and composition of QE3 are unknown but Bernanke’s responses suggest that there is a willingness to engage, if essential. Large asset purchases are likely to be a combination of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities. The second alternative is its communication strategy much like the August announcement that the federal funds rate would be held at the current rate at the least until mid-2013. In other words, it would entail tying interest rate decisions to economic conditions in policy communications.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 03, 2011
The Fed is Less Optimistic about Growth and Employment, But Stands Pat / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Fed left current policies intact and opted not to take any action today after implementing far reaching policy changes at the August and September FOMC meetings. Fed President Evans of the Chicago Fed cast the dissenting vote and would have preferred to provide more monetary policy accommodation. This is in stark contrast to the three dissents in August and September when Fed Presidents of Dallas, Minneapolis, and Philadelphia voted against the decision to hold the policy rate unchanged until mid-2013 and to undertake the maturity extension program of $400 billion dollars. Fed President Rosengren of Boston had cast a similar dissent in December 2007 arguing for a larger cut of the federal funds rate when the Fed lowered the policy rate by 25 bps to 4.25%.
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Tuesday, November 01, 2011
The Debt Burden Zombie Club of Nations / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Michael_Pento
Greece has supposedly received a bailout and markets across the globe are soaring. In fact, they are rising in the same manner they did a few months after the bailout of the U.S. financial system, now known as the Emergency Economic Stabilization act of 2008. However, the truth is there is no such thing as a complete and genuine bailout; there is only a transfer of burden from the government and banks to the middle class.
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Tuesday, November 01, 2011
Spain's Economic Crisis Shows the Eurozone Can't Escape its Debt Trap / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
Fresh evidence of Spain's deepening economic crisis has revived fears about that nation's ability to dig out of its sovereign debt problems, and illustrates why the Eurozone debt crisis is likely to drag on for years.
Spain's gross domestic product (GDP) was flat in the third quarter, the country's central bank said yesterday (Monday). That follows anemic growth of 0.4% in the first quarter and 0.2% in the second quarter.
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Monday, October 31, 2011
U.S. Treasury Bond Weakness in Synch With Stocks / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT) remains directly related to the direction of the stock indices. The correction off of last Thursday's high in the emini S&P 500 has been accompanied by a correction in the TBT.
This reflects a flight out of risk into the relative safety of the bond market, which in turn compromises the price structure of the TBT, as it represents longer-term rates.
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Monday, October 31, 2011
Foreign Borrowing Poses An Imminent Threat to the U.S. Dollar and U.S. Financial System / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Janet_Tavakoli
The United States is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world, and our borrowing is increasing. In 1950 spending for social programs was only one percent of the total Federal Budget. As the economy grew, social programs expanded to include Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Food Stamps, Unemployment Compensation, Supplemental Security for the Disabled, and educational programs. In 1983 as the United States pulled out of an ugly recession and brought inflation under control, social programs consumed 26% of the budget. In fiscal year 2012, they’ll eat up an estimated 57% of the budget.
Sunday, October 30, 2011
European Debt Crisis Summit: A Definite Plan But with No Details / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
Where is the peace dividend that was supposed to come after the end of the Cold War? Where are the fruits of the amazing gains in efficiency that technology has afforded? It has been eaten by the bureaucracy that manages our every move on this earth. The voracious and insatiable monster here is called the Federal Code that calls on thousands of agencies to exercise the police power to prevent us from living free lives.
It is as Bastiat said: the real cost of the state is the prosperity we do not see, the jobs that don't exist, the technologies to which we do not have access, the businesses that do not come into existence, and the bright future that is stolen from us. The state has looted us just as surely as a robber who enters our home at night and steals all that we love. - William "Bill" Bonner
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Saturday, October 29, 2011
U.S. Fed Operation Twist – Unmet Goal, For Now / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Fed put in place “Operation Twist” on September 21, 2011 with the goal of guiding long rates to a lower level. The 10-year Treasury note yield closed at a low of 1.72% on the day after the new policy was instituted. As of this writing, it is trading at 2.33%. The 30-year mortgage rate dropped briefly to 3.94% but is back up at levels seen just prior to the announcement (4.10%).
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Friday, October 28, 2011
How You Can Make Yourself a Better Trader / Interest-Rates / Learn to Trade
By: EWI
The idea of being a successful trader is exciting. The reality of becoming one is another thing. You need to understand more than the markets -- you need to understand yourself.
EWI's Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy knows what it takes. He has analyzed and traded the markets for over 15 years. Jeffrey has learned what it takes to be successful, and he has the discipline to apply that knowledge. Enjoy this excerpt from his free Club EWI eBook Best of Traders Classroom, in which he answers: What kind of trader am I?
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Friday, October 28, 2011
So How Do These Sorts of Crises End? / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Paul_Tustain
However this crisis is resolved, guess who'll be footing the bill...
The World has endured these sorts of crises before. Somehow they come to an end. What happens?
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Friday, October 28, 2011
“Standard” Credit Default Swaps on Greece Are a Sham and It’s Not a Surprise / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Janet_Tavakoli
At least it’s not a surprise to any financial professional that has paid attention to the false reassurances that the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc. (ISDA) has given over the years to naïve participants in the credit derivatives market.
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Friday, October 28, 2011
Greece 50% Debt Default, Greek Bondholders at a Loss / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Peter_Schiff
Michael Finger writes: In an agreement announced overnight, the European Union offered $100 billion to stem an imminent Greek debt default in exchange for a 50% haircut to Greek bondholders. This is a bittersweet victory for those of us who believe in the power of the free market.
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Friday, October 28, 2011
Money, Credit and the Federal Reserve Banking System, Robert Prechter Explains The Fed, Part III / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: EWI
This is Part III, the final part of our series "Robert Prechter Explains The Fed." (Here are Part I and Part II.)
Money, Credit and the Federal Reserve Banking System
Conquer the Crash, Chapter 10
By Robert Prechter