Category: Crude Oil
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Thursday, May 21, 2009
Investor Energy Strategy as Crude Oil Prices Set to Soar / Commodities / Crude Oil
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: The U.S. news media has convinced many investors that oil consumption is falling because of the global recession. While that may be true, it's a disservice to millions of investors because production is declining at a pace that's actually three times faster.
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Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Balancing Crude Oil Supply and Demand / Commodities / Crude Oil
We’ve seen huge volatility for oil prices the last nine months, but it now looks like oil is starting to bottom out after hitting lows in late 2008 and the first part of this year.
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Friday, May 15, 2009
Crude Oil to Underperform Metals / Commodities / Crude Oil
While both oil and equity indices reveal preliminary signs of a consolidation, downward momentum is particularly expected to weigh on oil. This is especially supported by my expectation for oil prices to underperform metals, which is signalled by a looming rebound in the Gold/Oil ratio. The chart below cogently illustrates how the turning points in the Gold/Oil ratio are driven by commodity markets' optimism with the economy.
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Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Crude Oil Back at $60 / Commodities / Crude Oil
In the midst of rising global stock markets, and a falling dollar, oil prices have surged to sit near $60 per barrel, with a close Tuesday (May 12) at $59.59. The dollar has fallen to its lowest mark in nearly four months thanks to the rising global picture and continued concerns about the United State fiscal economy.
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Monday, May 04, 2009
Crude Oil, OIH and USO Special Trading Report / Commodities / Crude Oil
The energy sector has been beaten down hard over the past 8 months. Since November it looks like it has been bouncing along the bottom with investors buying on the dips when dividends are high and prices are dirt cheap for many solid companies.
Sunday, April 26, 2009
The Impending Mother of all Oil Shocks / Commodities / Crude Oil
The other day I had an interesting conversation with someone who decides how much a small but significant portion of the world's oil reserves gets pumped.
I asked a question, "So long as the revenue from the oil that you pump is enough to meet the immediate needs of your country, why pump more?"
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Friday, April 24, 2009
Gold, Silver and Crude Oil Late Week Technical ETF Trading Update / Commodities / Crude Oil
Over the past two weeks the broad market has been inching its way higher. The recent intraday volatility indicates bull and bears are both trying to take control. Money flows in one hour and out the next. This is not the greatest price action for swing traders, but day traders love these powerful intraday moves.
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Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Crude Oil & Gas ETF Setting Up for Another Bull Run / Commodities / Crude Oil
As we discussed late yesterday, all of the action in the ProShares UltraLong Oil & Gas ETF (NYSE: DIG) off of the March 26 high at 25.49 looks like a consolidation-digestion area ahead of another run on the upside to complete an intermediate-term recovery period that began during the first week of March. This morning’s decline to a marginal new pullback low at 21.78 (off of the April 3 high at 25.29) did not follow-through to the downside.
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Friday, April 17, 2009
Crude Oil and Amex Oil Stocks Index Analysis / Commodities / Crude Oil
Oil continues to remain above $50/barrel, while oil stocks continue to trace out a pattern similar to the S&P 500 Index. Analysis today focuses on West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil and the AMEX Oil Index.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Crude Oil in Bullish Consolidation / Commodities / Crude Oil
All of the action in the U.S. Oil Fund ETF (NYSE: USO) since the March 26 high has taken the form of a coil that is attached to the Feb-Mar upleg from the 22.74 low. Because the coil has formed within the upper 40% of the major recovery upleg, I consider it a bullish consolidation pattern, which if accurate will mean that it should resolve itself to the upside in a powerful thrust to new recovery highs – above 32.39 (into the 34.00 target zone). At this juncture, only a decline that breaks the integrity of the coil at 28.50 -- and more importantly at 28.32 – will wreck the pattern.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 13, 2009
Voices About Crude Oil, The New Gold / Commodities / Crude Oil
There are conflicting voices about oil. Some say too much is available and demand is falling. Others say demand is rising and reduced exploration will contribute to a new boom. Some say oil is responding to the equities rally. Charts show oil with upward tendencies weeks before equities began to rise.
Here are some important media snippets with mixed bullish and bearish messages:
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Crude Oil Traders Be Ready for Strong Breakout Higher / Commodities / Crude Oil
Energy traders have been watching this slow rounded bottom reversal forming for months in the energy sector and crude oil prices. I have pointed it out many times and even posted some buy signals for USO and Crude Oil a while back. Oil is now testing a key resistance level and a breakout here could really send oil prices gushing higher towards the $70 per barrel level.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 07, 2009
Crude Oil $200, the Price for Wasting Financial Crisis Opportunity / Commodities / Crude Oil
Rohm Emanuel's famous quote regarding the current financial crisis, "Never let a serious crisis go to waste...it's an opportunity to do things you couldn't do before." was ignored last summer when oil prices reached $147 a barrel. The Obama administration has taken advantage of the financial crisis to ram through their socialist agenda which will add trillions to the National Debt. It will stimulate unions, bureaucrats, government employees, and defense contractors. It will do nothing to address the looming energy crisis which will sweep over the country shortly. Again, politicians and pundits will be shocked and astonished when oil soars. They will vilify oil companies, OPEC, and the dreaded speculators. They ignore the old fashioned supply and demand equation that even a dimwitted Congressman should be able to comprehend.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Is the Crude Oil Rally Over? / Commodities / Crude Oil
Crude oil plays such an integral part in our lives whether we care to admit it or not. This one source of energy drives the US economy and indeed the world's economy.
So what's ahead for the new black gold? After seeing this market move to its best levels in some time, we have seen a sharp pullback from the recent highs as the crude oil market appears to be mimicking the equity markets.
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Friday, March 27, 2009
Crude Oil Bull Trend Projection / Commodities / Crude Oil
Last week I watched a video analysis of Crude Oil. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but the market has changed quite a bit in the last few days. Crude seems to have steadied out, so what's the new analysis? Glad you asked!Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Crude Oil Makes a Sweek Breakout Buy Signal (Part2) / Commodities / Crude Oil
Crude Oil makes a run higher giving investors some what of a tradable bounce. Although this is great for our long trades, this is a catch 22. Gas prices are starting to rise again and if this trade follows through. we could see $65 per barrel and a possibility of oil retesting $100 level within the next 6-12 months. Not a pleasant thought in the grand scheme of things.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Awaiting Crude Oil's Test of Support / Commodities / Crude Oil
The most salient feature of the enclosed daily chart of nearby oil may well be the fact that BOTH the 20 and 50 day moving averages have turned up by virtue of the power of the Feb-Mar upmove from $33.55 to $48.83. Those moving averages are rising through the $41.25 area as we speak. In addition, let's notice that the support line of the Feb-Mar rally cuts across the price axis at $42.50, which is the next key near-term support zone prior to the confluence of the rising moving averages ($41.25).Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Crude Oil Heading for $80 / Commodities / Crude Oil
For the first time since September of 2007, the crude oil (NYME_CL) market has flashed a positive signal that it is headed higher. This is the first buy signal that we have seen in over 18 months in the energy markets.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
The Crude Oil Deflationary Bear Market / Commodities / Crude Oil
Yesterday on the blog I posted an email my sister sent me. ( Click here to read her note .) She asked me about the Oil market and its relation to the real estate market in the town she lives in.
As long time readers Know, I have been pretty bearish on Oil since last Summer. And now, even with the huge decline in prices I am still not bullish, though I respect the possibility of a good suckers' rally before the next wave of price destruction ensues. I will get into the pricing aspect in a bit.
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Tuesday, March 03, 2009
The Moving Averages Based Stock Feeder Pond Trading Technical Tool / Commodities / Crude Oil
A powerful use of the Moving Average concept ... Most investors use Moving Averages on their charts ... like the 20 day, 50 day, 100 day, and 200 day moving average. As indicators they lag behind movement, which is why many like to use an Exponential Moving Average over a Simple Moving Average.Read full article... Read full article...