Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, July 11, 2018
How NOT to Become a Casualty in the War on Cash / Currencies / War on Cash
By: MoneyMetals
Lots of bullion investors wonder if the metal they hold might one day be needed for barter and trade. They bought gold and silver, at least in part, as a form of insurance. It just might come in handy in an extreme circumstance such as a currency crisis of the sort Venezuelans are grappling with right now.
However, a hyper-inflationary collapse in the dollar isn’t the only dire scenario to insure against.
It is now clear that the dollar, and the financial network it runs on, is a mechanism for controlling people who don’t toe the government line.
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
An Elixir for Argentina’s Fiscal Dysfunction / Currencies / Argentina
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Argentina and its peso are in trouble, again. By officially replacing the peso with the U.S. dollar, Argentina’s peso nightmare would end. But, in a country in which fiscal fiddlers know many tricks, some fiscal rules must also be added to the prescription.
Dollarization should impose a hard budget constraint on Argentina. Under dollarization, which exists in 33 countries, hard budget constraints are imposed because dollarized countries must finance government spending by taxing or borrowing in either domestic or international bond markets. They cannot finance government expenditures by using a central bank, which issues a domestic currency. As a result, fiscal deficits, when they occur, tend to be relatively small. But, there has been one noteworthy, unusual case: Zimbabwe. This case merits our attention.
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
Argentina Should Scrap the Peso and Dollarize / Currencies / Argentina
By: Steve_H_Hanke
On July 9th, Argentina will celebrate its 202nd birthday. The biggest spoiler during the festivities will be the beleaguered peso. It’s not the first time the peso has been a spoiler. Since its founding, Argentina has been burdened with numerous economic crises. Most can be laid at the feet of domestic mismanagement and currency problems (read: currency collapses). To list but a few of these crises: 1876, 1890, 1914, 1930, 1952, 1958, 1967, 1975, 1985, 1989, 2001, and 2018(?).
By the time its 100th birthday rolled around, Argentina had experienced only three major economic crises. Alas, the next 102 years have been much more eventful, with eight currency crises, not counting 2018.
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Monday, July 09, 2018
How Trade Wars Penalize Asian Currencies / Currencies / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
Not so long ago, Asian currencies anticipated depreciation pressures to increase, due to monetary normalization. Yet, it is the trade wars that are now penalizing all currencies, particularly in exporting economies.In January, I gave a global economic briefing on the outlook of the Philippines in the Nordic Chamber of Commerce in Manila. At the time, the peso was still about 50.80 to U.S. dollar. Among other things, I projected the peso to soften to 54 or more toward the end of the year, which I considered largely the net effect of normalization in advanced economies, elevated trade friction worldwide, as well as fiscal expansion (the Duterte investment program).
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Saturday, July 07, 2018
The Euro, the British Pound and the Other Side of the Coin / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Nadia_Simmons
Analyzing the medium-term charts of the euro and the British pound, we see that currency bulls fought fiercely with their rivals during recent weeks. Despite several attempts to push both currencies lower, they successfully defended their main strongholds in both cases and defeated fans of the greenback. What does this mean for the U.S. currency and its European competitors?
Thursday, July 05, 2018
Elliott Wave Analysis: Is US Dollar About to Turn? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ElliottWave-Forecast
At Elliottwave-Forecast.com, we use correlation as one tool to complement our forecast. We often use USDPLN as we believe it is good proxy for Dollar Index (DXY). In below’s chart, we overlay the two instrument, and we can clearly see they are nearly identical
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Thursday, July 05, 2018
Why Is the Cryptocurrency Market So Volatile: Expert Take / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Andrew_Cioffi
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Wednesday, July 04, 2018
Back to Resistance for Bitcoin and Ethereum / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Submissions
By Ryan Wilday: In last week’s article, my charts showed that I expected a corrective rally into the zones we are now pushing against. As always, I marked key resistance with a box and price has entered those areas. These zones are $6724-$7045 in bitcoin (BTC-USD) and $461-$489 in ethereum (ETH-USD).
Because I don’t view the downside trend as complete, nor do we have price through resistance in, my primary remains that that we’ll see further downside. But any thesis regarding market direction must be held loosely. Instead this is an opportunity for me to observe how the market reacts.
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Wednesday, July 04, 2018
GBP/USD – Time to Jump in with Both Feet? / Currencies / British Pound
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Friday, the British pound showed strength against the greenback, which resulted in an invalidation of the breakdown under the long-term support line. The closure of the week above this important line emphasized the advantage of currency bulls over their rivals. What a pity that they rested on their laurels.Why? Because yesterday’s session erased most of the earlier rebound. This bucket of cold water, however, awakened the buyers who returned to the game for higher levels. What must they do to make GBP/USD grow above 1.3000?
Tuesday, July 03, 2018
Bitcoin Tension Ramps up / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
The recent couple of days have turned the short-term outlook on its ear for some traders. The last couple of months have seemed like sooth sailing, not something that could be said about the Bitcoin market too many times in the past. Now, we get a different reading and some might say that the tide has turned. But you need to go deeper than that.
Bitcoin has gone up and the bulls are euphoric. This is a marked change from the recent weeks when there was little to nothing for Bitcoin aficionados to cheer to. The main question, however, remains: “Has anything changed?” With the recent appreciation, we could also ask: “Does this action change anything?” Is there anything that could drive the profits on our hypothetical speculative positions?
Friday, June 29, 2018
Where the U.S. Dollar Will Go Next / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Troy_Bombardia
For a long time I said that “Money Flow” determines a currency pair’s direction. But I’ve never been able to quantify that concept using an indicator. I’ve tried various things over the years: inflation differentials, interest rate differentials, etc. All of these were commonly accepted theories but were disproven in the light of historical data.
From Ed Yardeni’s book “Predicting the Markets”, we can now quantify the idea behind Money Flow:
On a 12 month basis, the United States has been running widening trade deficits for decades. The trade deficit of the U.S. must equal the trade surplus of the rest of the world. So the 12 month change of non-gold international reserves held by all central banks (excluding the Federal Reserve) minus the trade surplus of the rest of the world should be a proxy for capital inflows (and outflows) to the rest of the world from the U.S.
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Tuesday, June 26, 2018
Sound Money Needed Now More Than Ever / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: MoneyMetals
The sound money movement reemerged on the national political scene a decade ago. In 2008, the financial crisis brought in a fresh wave of U.S. gold and silver investors.
Ron Paul and the Tea Party advocated for limiting government and ending the Federal Reserve system. Sound money advocates made real inroads in recruiting Americans to their cause based on evidence that the nation is headed for bankruptcy.
The implications of the most recent financial crisis went way beyond budget and finance.
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Saturday, June 23, 2018
A Trade War Won’t Be Good for the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
On Wall Street, it's best not to think too hard or to look too closely into the mouths of gift horses. Since making predictions based on actual economic understanding is rare, analysts typically look to provide explanations after the fact. Within the financial services industry, currency traders are perhaps the greatest practitioners of this craft. While they often get the fundamentals completely wrong, it never seems to stop them from offering bizarre theories to explain currency movements.
Friday, June 22, 2018
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
Previous analysis updated – price has continued rallying right up to the previous swing high and I believe the 2018 top was made today at 95.22. The expectation of a mini crash in the second half of the year remains unchanged.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 21, 2018
Things You Need To Know If You Want To Invest In Bitcoin Now / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
2017 was a wonderful year for Bitcoin but 2018 did not yet live up to initially set expectations. Basically, people that are specialized in Bitcoin and crytpocurrency investments are now divided. Investing in Bitcoin is something so many are interested in but before you do this, there are some things that you absolutely have to know.
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Wednesday, June 20, 2018
EURUSD: Why the "Next Day or Two" are Critical / Currencies / Euro
By: EWI
An Open House insight from our Currency Pro Service editor
Every week, our Currency Pro Service editor, Jim Martens, records a new video focusing on EURUSD, USDJPY and other markets. Learn why "the next day or two" should determine the next move in the euro in this clip from Jim's June 17 video.
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Tuesday, June 19, 2018
Short-term Turnaround in Bitcoin Might Not Be What You Think / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
The last couple of weeks have been disheartening for Bitcoin bulls. The currency has been on a move down. Is this about to end? The answer to this question determines whether the profits on our hypothetical positions are about to grow.
News has come out that the recent move down might be over. In an article on the Forbes website, we read:
The plunge began Sunday, with several factors possibly feeding into it, including a cyber-heist that hit South Korea’s Coinrail cryptocurrency exchange—even though no bitcoins were stolen—and a U.S. regulatory probe into Bitcoin price manipulation.
Monday, June 18, 2018
Ethereum & Bitcoin: First Sign of Unravelling Cryptos / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Ryan_Wilday
In articles starting in April I discussed the bullish impulse we had seen off the April lows for nearly every coin I track. And, I discussed how the lows on May 28 were testing levels that, if broken, threatened the continuation of that impulse.
Unfortunately, as of writing, those levels have broken. These levels were $7075 in bitcoin (BTC-USD) and $505 in ethereum (ETH-USD). And, while we have a few outliers in the cryptocurrency, most coins are following suit.
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Saturday, June 16, 2018
Respite for Bitcoin Traders Might Be Deceptive / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Bitcoin has been denying the bullish ideas of some of the investors for some time now. At the moment, the currency is in a particularly important zone. One specific move out from this area could result in extreme moves, boosting profits on our hypothetical positions.
Bitcoin is still going down. As always, there is an explanation for every move. In an article on CNBC, we read:
The digital currency fell to a low of $6,133.31 as of 1 p.m. ET, according to data from CoinDesk. Bitcoin has lost half its value this year after skyrocketing to almost $20,000 in December.
Saturday, June 16, 2018
Bitcoin Price To $0 Or $1 Million In One Year? Video / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: GoldCore
– Bitcoin price in one year (June 2019)?
– Bitcoin at $10,000 is the call of majority of MoneyConf poll participants
– Bears see bitcoin at $0 while uber bulls see $100k/$1m (incl. Max Keiser)
– Is binary and “bitcoin will likely go to zero or go much higher”
– “Which cryptocurrency are you betting on in 2019?” – MoneyConf poll asks