Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Ireland’s IMF/EU Bailout. The Financial Crisis Has Not Gone Away / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011
By: Christopher_Quigley
(Reuters: 18th. January 2011) -: “EU finance ministers agreed on Tuesday they wanted tougher stress tests for the region's banks to restore confidence in the bloc's financial system, but remained locked in dispute over how strict they should be."We discussed bank stress tests ... and we are really agreed that the new stress tests should include more banks," said German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble.
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Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Front-Running the Fed in the Treasury Market, There Is No Business Like Bond Business / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Professor_Emeritus
For some nine years I have been predicting that the economy is going to a recession morphing into a depression, using a purely theoretical argument. The essence of my argument is that the open market operations of the Fed cause a protracted decline in interest rates which is responsible for the hard-to-detect capital destruction affecting the financial sector no less than the productive sector. The immediate cause of the depression is the destruction of capital. The ultimate cause is the monetary policy of open market operations. The chain of causation is as follows.
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
U.S. Interest Rates, Economy, and the 1YR T-Bill / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Tony_Caldaro
When one monitors the various markets for a number of years they accumulate tidbits of technical/economic information mostly from others, and some on their own. It is this “some on their own” that can give an investor just enough of an edge to be ahead of the crowd. It is common knowledge that the FED raises and lowers short term interest rates to meet their full employment/low inflation mandate. We can generally observe the movement of their rate decisions by monitoring the 1YR t-bill rate, as illustrated by the 30 year chart below.
Monday, January 17, 2011
Bear Stalks the Municipal Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Dennis_Elam
Vanguard Funds notified the SEC it will not market three new municipal bond funds designed to emulate various municipal bond indices. Hmm, perhaps Vanguard instead should have brought a bear muni bond ETF to market.
Monday, January 17, 2011
Financial Meltdown 2011 Fast Approaching / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Midas_Letter
Despite the best efforts by the American mainstream financial media, the eager PR division of the United States Dollar Ponzi Scheme, to paint the rosiest of rosy pictures for blindly optimistic readers, the stubborn image of a debt-swollen jobless behemoth economy slowly toppling persists. No matter how much U.S. departmental data is primped, polished, and primed, no amount of lipstick is going to transform this fat pig into a princess.
Monday, January 17, 2011
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Issues Warning for Municipal Bond Investors / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes:
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said he expected more municipal bankruptcies. In doing so, aligned himself with other critics of the muni-bond market, including analyst Meg Whitman and Money Morning's own Martin Hutchinson.
"There have been six or seven municipal bankruptcies already," Dimon said Jan. 10 at JPMorgan's annual healthcare conference. "I think unfortunately you will see more."
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Monday, January 17, 2011
Sterling and European short rates: which is the better bear market? / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
Inflation is increasingly becoming an issue for traders in many markets. As economic recovery slowly strengthens, fears of deflation, even in the US have given way to worries that inflation may emerge as the next big challenge after a prolonged period of exceptionally low interest rates in the major developed economies.
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Europe Stands on the Brink of New Debt Crisis / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Pravda
Debt crisis of the European countries of Spain, Portugal and Greece will cause the EU to experience a new crisis, says Ethan Harris, principal analyst for the economies of developed countries BofA Merrill Lynch. The crisis will begin in the coming months if the EU does not find ways to solve sovereign debt problems. Yet, China is already rushing to help and ready to buy Spanish bonds.
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Saturday, January 15, 2011
European Debt Crisis Thinking the Unthinkable, The Threat of the Irish / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
The Fed Adds a Third Mandate
A Rational Voice in Dallas
Thinking the Unthinkable
The Threat of the Irish
Has China Found a Miracle Business Cycle?
Last week, in the first part of my annual forecast, I suggested that 2011 would be better than Muddle Through, with GDP growth in the US north of 2.5%. World GDP growth should be even better. This week we look at what I see as the real downside risks to that prediction. Oddly enough, the risks are not in the US but on the other side of both our oceans, in Europe and China. Plus, we will visit a few other items, assuming we have space (Bernanke's recent speech just screams for some comments).
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Saturday, January 15, 2011
U.S. Bond Market Trades in Choppy Narrow Range / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market has settled into a relatively narrow but choppy trading range over the past 5 weeks. The Treasury Bond auction cycle consisting of 3, 10 and 30 year tranches was well received, but the slightly disappointing 30 year auction appears to have prevented the market from breaking out of its recent narrow range. Even the onslaught of disappointing economic news could not provide enough motivation for the market to break out to the upside. Consequently, it looks like sideways action remains the path of least resistance.
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Saturday, January 15, 2011
The Symbolic U.S. Debt Ceiling / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Gary_North
Democratic politics relies on deception. Without deception of the voters on a comprehensive scale, there could be no politics above the local level, where people know the deceivers personally and are therefore less easy to fool.
Basic to deception are symbols. Symbols serve politicians in much the same way as a red cape serves a matador.
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Friday, January 14, 2011
Europe's Tragic Debt Crisis / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: David_Howden
At the root of the current crisis in Europe are the actions of the European Central Bank. As Philipp Bagus explains in his new book, The Tragedy of the Euro, only a realization of the true costs the euro has imposed on the continent in the past can shed light on the path to future recovery.
European member states, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have pledged upward of €200 billion in bailout funds to prevent the turmoil from spreading. This is a large funding drain on an already-dangerous EU fiscal situation.
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Friday, January 14, 2011
European Debt Dominoes Continue Top Tip! Immediate Steps to Avoid Losses … / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Mike_Larson
Do you remember Baghdad Bob from Gulf War II? He was the Iraqi minister of information who kept pledging that the U.S. was being routed and our troops were nowhere near Baghdad … even as they were marching through the streets. The colorful denials made for great entertainment.
Now the same theatre of the absurd process is playing out in many of Europe’s major capitals.
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Friday, January 14, 2011
Signs the "End of America" Is Nearing, Buy and Hold Gold / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: DailyWealth
Dan Ferris writes: I keep getting subscriber e-mails asking me what good it is to buy stocks when the U.S. dollar will soon be destroyed, taking the value of most equities with it.
This question is a better one now than it's ever been in my lifetime.
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Understanding the Federal Reserve Bank / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: EWI
Despite so much focus on the policies of the Fed, its operations remain somewhat of a mystery to most investors -- in no smaller measure, due to their complexity.
So, we put together a free resource for our Club EWI members: a 35-page report that explains the Fed, its goals and, very importantly, its limitations in layman's terms.
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Full Spectrum Dominance, The Pathology of U.S. and Global Monetary Policy / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011
By: Rob_Kirby
The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how the Federal Reserve – through its proxy money centre banks – has taken complete control of the interest rate complex enabling them to arbitrarily price capital at or near zero. This has only been possible with accommodation of the ruling elite who mutually benefit from these policies.
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Federal Government Budget - Latest Numbers and Tally of Stimulus Package / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Asha_Bangalore
The cumulative budget deficit of the federal government for the twelve months ended December 2010 stood at $1.277 trillion, down from a high of $1.478 trillion in the twelve months ended February 2010.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Federal Debt of the United States - Q and A (Part II) / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Asha_Bangalore
[Part I, question 1-3] published on Jan 11, 2011.
4. Will Congress entertain not raising the statutory debt limit?
Congress will increase the statutory debt limit prior to the deadline. There is not even an inkling of doubt about this eventuality. But, unfavorable posturing by politicians, prior to taking the appropriate action, is nearly certain and tentative market concern will prevail. The terms of the deal the Republicans will strike to raise the debt limit is the source of uncertainty not whether they will raise the borrowing limit. The Treasury Department estimates that the national debt will hit the statutory limit between March 31 and May 16. In the meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Geithner has indicated that the Treasury could take "exceptional actions" to delay the deadline by suspending the sale of state and local government securities, which would buy time for a few weeks.
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Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Federal Debt of the United States - Q and A (Part I) / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Asha_Bangalore
We have encountered questions about debt of the United States in the past few weeks and thought a Q and A about debt would be handy. This is the first of two installments of noteworthy highlights about federal debt.
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Synonymous Terms for Quantitative Easing / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Richard_Daughty
I was having a leisurely breakfast with the family when I read where Philipp Bagus, writing at Mises Daily newsletter, quotes James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, as saying, "it's important to defend inflation from the low side as we would on the high side."