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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Friday, December 27, 2013

Why the Fed Will likely NOT Taper QE 2014 Despite December Statement / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Submissions

Georgi Ivanov writes: A largely unnoticed message from the Chinese Central Bank in late November has raised questions about the upcoming tapering of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE) initiative, which would mean an end to the monthly $85 billion of fresh money that enter the American monetary system. Signals about the end of the Fed’s stimulus package began in 2012, and were supposed to end in the fall of this year. However, the Bernanke and co unexpectedly announced that the policy shifted gears and QE is now supposed by the middle of 2014.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Ben Bernanke's Spoonful of Sugar / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Peter_Schiff

The press has framed Ben Bernanke's valedictory press conference last week in heroic terms. It's as if a veteran quarterback engineered a stunning come-from-behind drive in his final game, and graciously bowed out of the game with the ball sitting on the opponent's one-yard line. In reality, Bernanke has merely completed a five-yard pass from his own end zone, and has left Janet Yellen to come off the bench down by three touchdowns, with no credible deep threats, and very little time left on the clock.

The praise heaped on Bernanke's swan song stems from the Fed's success in initiating the long-anticipated (and highly feared) tapering campaign without sparking widespread anxiety. So deftly did the outgoing chairman thread the needle that the market actually powered to fresh all-time highs on the news.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 23, 2013

QE Tapering vs. Tightening Issue Continued / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Matt_Machaj

Last week all (investors') eyes were on the Fed, and the Fed delivered. A small (if you can call $10 billion "small", but it is on a relative basis) form of tapering of the Quantitative Easing program was announced and markets reacted to it. It turned out that our assumptions about investors' expectations were correct - they were expecting to see no tapering and they were surprised by it.

As mentioned previously, even though tapering and tightening are often viewed as synonyms, they are exactly the same thing. Let's discuss this more thoroughly.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 23, 2013

Small Pullback in Money Printing = Big Spike in Interest Rates? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: Quietly, without much fanfare or news, the bellwether 10-year U.S. Treasury hit a yield of 2.9% this past Friday—double what it yielded in June of 2012. (Source: Treasury.gov, last accessed December 20, 2013.)
Yes, the Federal Reserve only slightly pulled back on its money printing program and interest rates are already spiking.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 23, 2013

The Ben Bernanke Economic and U.S. Debt Balance Sheet / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Ben Bernanke announced a cut in QE by $10 billion a month this week, the financial press can’t stop talking about it and – what they call – “analyzing” it, and I still, after 8 years of Ben in the chair don’t know what puzzles me most: the quantity of attention paid to all things Bernanke, or the quality of it. I mean, I know why the press do it, but I have trouble understanding why they can’t constrain themselves.

If a financial system is as dependent on public money injections as today’s one, there is a very real risk that this market has in fact stopped functioning, and that what we’re watching are zombified movements that can continue only thanks to those money injections, which are in their manipulative character, frankly, more reminiscent of what one would expect to see in communist nations than anything else.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, December 21, 2013

The Fed Will Still Provide Massive QE in 2014 - But / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Sy_Harding

The Federal Reserve announced this week that it will provide $75 billion of quantitative easing (QE) in January, a massive amount, and will provide large though diminishing amounts of additional stimulus for months thereafter.

Yes, that is what it said, even though the headline news was that it will begin tapering back QE in January, by providing $75 billion rather than the $85 billion it has been providing monthly this year. If it continues to taper at the same pace it will provide an additional $65 billion of stimulus in February, $55 billion in March, and so on.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, December 21, 2013

The Great QE Taper Caper / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Andy_Sutton

Let’s do a little flashback this week and then look at some things and try to make some sense of what happened yesterday as the Great Taper Caper unfolds. We go back to March 3rd, 2009. Ben Bernanke was in front of Congress. He was allegedly under oath. He was asked directly by Senator Bernie Sanders this important question: “Will you tell the American people to whom you lent $2.2 trillion of their dollars?” Bernanke gave a one-word answer – “No”.

There are a couple of problems with all this obviously, but let’s get the more subtle ones first. This is yet another golden opportunity to point out who really runs the show from a monetary perspective. Those ‘dollars’ aren’t even dollars. That is the first problem. They are ‘not-so-USFed’ notes. They are debt. They don’t belong to the people, rather they hang like a millstone around the collective neck of We the People. Second problem, why was Bernanke allowed to leave that hearing without being charged, at a minimum with obstruction? Because the banksters run the show, that’s why. Those hearings everyone pays such rapt attention to are theater.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, December 20, 2013

Ben Bernanke Tapers, Tinkers and then Leaves / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Fed Chairman Bernanke tapers by $10 bln, tinkers with forward guidance and leaves Janet Yellen with the possibility of an inflation target.

By reducing monthly purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities and long term treasuries by $10 bn, the Federal Reserve has successfully integrated the price stability component of its dual Forward Guidance into traders' psyche by further delinking tapering of asset purchases from tightening conditions in the bond market.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Burning Money at the Rate of $113 Billion a Month; How Can They Stop Printing? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: In the month of November, the U.S. government registered a budget deficit of $135 billion. Over the course of the month, it spent $318 billion and only took in $182 billion. So far for the fiscal year 2014, which began in October, the U.S. government has registered a budget deficit of $227 billion; that’s an average of $113.5 billion a month so far this fiscal year. (Source: Department of the Treasury; Bureau of Fiscal Service, December 11, 2013.)

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 16, 2013

Bernanke Seeing the Difference Between QE Tapering and Tightening / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Matt_Machaj

On November 19th at National Economists Club Annual Dinner Bernanke gave a speech which could be seen as a sort of testimony or farewell (probably one of many coming soon). The message he has sent was in perfect compliance with what was being communicating to the public. Firstly he offered a “forward guidance”, which was to reassure us that low short term interest rates are here to stay for the longer term. The possible boundary line, as we repeatedly heard, is lower unemployment and/or significantly higher inflation rate. Until then we are still in the ZIRP – zero interest rate policy – scenario.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, December 12, 2013

Taper Quantitative Easing Interest Rates Derivatives Reality Check / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Dan_Amerman

The potential "tapering" of quantitative easing can be likened to a lessening of chemotherapy treatments when a cancer patient's symptoms change.  It means one thing if the patient is being cured.  It means something quite radically different when there has not been a cure, and the underlying cancer remains as bad as ever.

We are told that quantitative easing (QE), a.k.a. "cheap money", exists for the purpose of stimulating economic growth and corporate profits, and is thereby helping the United States and other nations that are struggling with persistent and deep-rooted economic and unemployment problems.  If this were the whole truth, then QE is a temporary and technical fix, a mere "accommodative policy" that can be stepped down and then eliminated altogether once markets improve and economies no longer need assistance.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Investors You’re Getting Robbed / Interest-Rates / Learn to Trade

By: Investment_U

Alexander Green writes: A Note From the Editorial Director: We received a question recently from a regular Investment U reader on a subject that comes up too often: The costs he’s paying his broker. He writes:

“I recently had a very frustrating conversation with my broker. I wanted to know how much I’m paying in fees and commissions to work with him. And I couldn’t get a straight answer! I still don’t have it sorted out. Is this a common experience? Should I fire him?”

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

10-Year U.S. Treasury Note Trades Near 6%; If Taper Is For Real / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

The most important question for investors at this time is to determine how high interest rates will rise; if indeed the Fed's artificial suppression of yields is truly about to end. To accomplish this we first must consider where yields last were outside of central bank debt monetization, a recession and the Eurozone debt crisis. Then, we need to factor in the increased risks to inflation and solvency, in order to arrive at an appropriate estimation for the level of interest rates during 2014.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Why What’s Happening in the U.S. Bond Market Now Is So Important to Stock Investors / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: InvestmentContrarian

George Leong writes: Taper or no taper? When? How much? These are the worries that are currently driving tensions in the stock market on a daily basis. As I wrote in a previous article, no one seems to care that corporate revenue growth is muted and consumers aren’t spending.

Last week, we saw jobs market data that helps support the Federal Reserve’s reasons to begin tapering its bond buying program.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, December 08, 2013

How to Trade Markets Using Moving Averages / Interest-Rates / Learn to Trade

By: EWI

The moving average is a technical indicator which has stood the test of time. It's been 27 years since Robert Prechter described this vital tool in his famous essay, "What a Trader Really Needs to be Successful." What he said then remains true today:

A simple 10-day moving average of the daily advance-decline net, probably the first indicator a stock market technician learns, can be used as a trading tool, if objectively defined rules are created for its use.

What is a moving average? Here's how EWI's Jeffrey Kennedy puts it:

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Interest-Rates

Friday, December 06, 2013

How to Develop a Trading System From Novive to Profitable Investor / Interest-Rates / Trading Systems

By: Chris_Vermeulen

When it comes to becoming a successful investor or your, automated trading system development process for that matter, there are some big picture things that you must have figured out. Here are some tips that will help you get started in becoming a long term consistent and profitable trader, investor or automated trading system developer.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 04, 2013

How to Get Higher Interest Rates on Safer Bonds / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds

By: Investment_U

Steve McDonald writes: The bond market is a difficult place to earn a livable income during times of very low interest rates. The only way to earn a decent yield is to take risks on lower-quality bonds or to accept much longer maturity curves than good sense dictates.

But if you know where to look, there’s a virtually unknown feature in some bonds that can significantly increase your current income and beat the biggest threat to your money in the current bond market, while offering the increased level of safety that bonds are known for.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 04, 2013

When Saving Interest Rates Go Negative / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: BATR

What is more frightening, then the loss of your money. Since most people have, some meager amount held in some form of a financial institution, the prospect of the banksters' cabal placing a charge against your account for the mere privilege of maintaining a deposit, is horrible. The Business Insider warns, In The Future, You May Have To Pay The Bank To Hold Your Money, and raises a very dreadful prospect.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 03, 2013

Is the Fed Increasingly Monetizing U.S.Government Debt? / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Axel_Merk

Fed Chair Bernanke vehemently denies Fed “monetizes the debt,” but our research shows the Fed may be increasingly doing so. We explain why and what the implications may be for the dollar, gold and currencies.

What is debt monetization? A central bank is said to monetize a government’s debt if it helps to finance its deficit. The buying of Treasuries by the Federal Reserve is a clear indication that the Fed is doing just that, except that Bernanke argues the motivation behind Treasury purchases is to help the economy, not the government.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, December 01, 2013

Why Traders Lose Money Trading Markets / Interest-Rates / Learn to Trade

By: Chris_Vermeulen

How to turn your trading into a simple automated trading strategy: you know the difference among a winning and losing trade – we have all experienced both and know the excitement and the frustration associated with it.

The brutal honest truth is a tough pill to swallow. The fact that most of the time it’s not the strategy that has failed; it’s you (the trader) which is why you need a simple trading strategy drawn out on paper with detailed rules for you to follow.

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