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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Friday, May 25, 2018

The Bond Market Just Figured Out That Central Banks CANNOT Exit / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

To recap yesterday’s piece concerning the recent shift in Central Bank policy, from mid-2016 onward:

1)   Central Banks engaging in emergency levels of QE at a time in which their respective economies were growing.

2)   Inflation bottoming then beginning to rise.

3)   Bond markets starting to revolt.

4)   Central Banks opting to walk back their QE programs.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, May 21, 2018

Inverted Yield Curve: It’s Definitely Not Different This Time / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

An inverted yield curve occurs when the yield on shorter-dated securities is above that on longer-term bonds; and it has predicted all nine U.S. recessions since 1955, according to Bloomberg. Of course, now that the yield curve is the flattest since 2007—with the 2-10 spread falling to just 45 basis points, from 260bps in 2014--right on cue the carnival barkers on Wall Street have been deployed in full force claiming this key financial barometer is now broken.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, May 18, 2018

Flattening Yield Curve is Good / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Axel_Merk

In recent months, pundits have cautioned about a flattening yield curve, suggesting it may signal the end of the economic expansion, the end of the bull market, possibly even the end of the world as we know it. There's plenty to worry about in the markets, but in the spirit that knowledge is the enemy of ignorance, let's clear up some myths.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 30, 2018

US Bond Market 10-Year Yield: From A 35-Year Bear To A Generational Bull Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

In early March, 10-year yield was circling 2.87%. Now it is circling 3.00% for the first time in 4 years. The increase is probably shocking to many analysts and investors. Neither economic nor inflation data provide adequate justification for yield to be higher than it was two months ago. But there are times when the contradicting longer-term technical set-up should be heeded, even when the trend lacks strong support from lagging tabular data.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 30, 2018

A Contrarian Take on the Great Yield Curve Scare / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: F_F_Wiley

Media coverage of most business-cycle indicators waxes and wanes with changes in the economy, but so far in 2018, the yield curve indicator is all wax. It seems like everyone has something to say about the yield curve slope, and many commentators are jumping from a flatter curve to a growing risk of recession.

Even central bankers have joined in, with a recent article from the San Francisco Fed declaring that “the term spread is by far the most reliable predictor of recessions.”

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 23, 2018

Fox in the Henhouse: Why Interest Rates Are Rising / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Ellen_Brown

The Federal Reserve calls itself independent, but it is independent only of government. It marches to the drums of the banks that are its private owners. To prevent another Great Recession or Great Depression, Congress needs to amend the Federal Reserve Act, nationalize the Fed and turn it into a public utility, one that is responsive to the needs of the public and the economy.

On March 31 the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate for the sixth time in three years and signaled its intention to raise rates twice more in 2018, aiming for a Fed funds target of 3.5 percent by 2020. LIBOR (the London Interbank Offered Rate) has risen even faster than the Fed funds rate, up to 2.3 percent from just 0.3 percent 2 1/2 years ago. LIBOR is set in London by private agreement of the biggest banks, and the interest on $3.5 trillion globally is linked to it, including $1.2 trillion in consumer mortgages.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 17, 2018

Why the Fed is Worse for the Market than Trade Tariffs / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Rodney_Johnson

“Always tell the truth.”

In addition to being number eight on the Top 10 list of things we should always do, being truthful is just a great way to avoid trouble in life.

You never have to remember what lie you told to whom, and you never have to make up more lies to cover those you’ve already put out into the universe.

But we don’t.

I don’t know a single person who is completely honest. And this goes way beyond, “Do these clothes make me look fat?”

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 16, 2018

THE Financial Crisis Acronym of 2008 is Sounding Another Alarm / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2018

By: Michael_Pento

LIBOR, or the London Interbank Offered Rate, was the most important acronym most investors never heard of before 2008. However, it quickly became the most critical variable in markets leading up to the Great Recession.

What has now become clear is that we haven’t learned any lessons from the financial crisis except how to accumulate more debt and to artificially control markets more extensively. And, to conveniently try to sweep under the rug the very same warning signs that forebode the day of reckoning just over a decade ago.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 09, 2018

Average Two-year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rate at 19 Month High / Interest-Rates / Mortgages

By: MoneyFacts

Moneyfacts UK Mortgage Trends Treasury Report data (not yet published) reveals that the average two-year fixed rate mortgage has increased for the second month in a row, to reach the highest point seen since September 2016.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 09, 2018

A Handy Guide to Congressional Budget Office CBO Report / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: F_F_Wiley

Tomorrow we’ll get the Congressional Budget Office’s first look at the budgetary consequences of Donald Trump.

That is, the CBO will release its 10-year budget outlook, which was delayed by a few months to allow enough time to assess recent legislation.

Expect the media to respond in a variety of ways, including matter-of-fact reporting and editorials slamming Trump and the GOP for fiscal profligacy. But whatever the perspective, most responses will have one thing in common—they’ll accept the CBO’s figures as being accurate and authoritative.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, April 06, 2018

Why Are Markets Going Bonkers? Central Bankers Tried to Corner the Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

The big questions being tossed around Wall Street today are: why are markets such a mess? Why are we getting these wild swings?

The reality is that the markets are NOT a mess. These are actually normal healthy markets. Healthy markets move, sometimes a lot in a small span of time.

The real issue is that from ’09 until recently, the market was completely artificial because Central Banks cornered ALL risk by cornering the sovereign bond market.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Uncle Sam Issuing $300 Billion In New Debt This Week Alone / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: GoldCore

– US needs to borrow almost $300 billion this week alone
– This is the largest debt issuance since 2008 financial crisis
– Trump threatens trade war with its biggest creditor – China
– Bond auctions have seen weak demand due to large supply and trade war concerns
– $20 trillion mark reached in early September 2017; $1 trillion added in just 6 months
– US total national debt level now exceeds $21.05 trillion and is accelerating higher
– U.S. debt and dollar crisis coming which will propel gold higher (see chart)

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

Eurozone Faces Many Threats Including Trade Wars and “Eurozone Time-Bomb” In Italy / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: GoldCore

– Eurozone threatened by trade wars, Italy and major political and economic instability
– Trade war holds a clear and present danger to stability and economic prospects
– Italy represents major source of potential disruption for the currency union
– Financial markets fail to reflect the “eurozone time-bomb” in Italy

– Financial volatility concerns in Brussels & warning of ‘sharp correction’ on horizon
– Euro and global currency debasement and bank bail-in risks

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

New Research Foretells QE Domination / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: F_F_Wiley

The title refers to a consensus-shattering paper that was unveiled at the University of Chicago last month before a Who’s Who of economists and central bankers.

Paul Krugman gave the keynote, but the meeting’s focus was on the paper’s authors—two Wall Street big shots, Morgan Stanley’s David Greenlaw and Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Ethan Harris, and two academics, James Hamilton and Kenneth West. To keep it simple, I’ll call them GHHW.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

The Federal Reserve – Purpose And Motivation / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Kelsey_Williams

With each succeeding day, obsession with the Federal Reserve continues. And the obsession is a good indicator of just how misinformed most of us are.

This is true with respect to various policies, statements, and actions; and includes comments made by board members, either in speeches or interviews. But it is also true regarding purpose and motivation.

To a large extent, it is a matter of perception. Some, maybe most, people see the Fed as the lead driver. There is an assumed aura of authority and control. On all matters economic, we look to them for direction. But where are they taking us? 

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Chaos is the Only Way Out of Interest Rates Normalisation / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

The prevailing fiction pervading Wall Street right now is that economic growth is picking up in a sustainable fashion and that interest rates will merely rise slowly. Then, soon level off at historically low levels. In other words, they are selling a fairytale; and a dangerous one at that.

This premise is blatantly false. The Fed’s reverse QE program, Government debt levels and Nominal Gross Domestic Product, all dictate that the 10-year Note Yield should be now swiftly on its way to at least 4.5%, from the artificial level of 1.4% found in July of 2016.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Credit Concerns In U.S. Growing As LIBOR OIS Surges to 2009 High / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2018

By: GoldCore

Key Metric LIBOR OIS Signals Major Credit Concerns

– Widening of the spread between LIBOR OIS (overnight index swap) rate raises concerns
– Spread jumped to 9 year widest spread, rising to 54.6bps, most since May 2009.
– Libor recently moved to over 2% for first time since 2008
– Wider spread usually associated with heightened credit concerns

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 19, 2018

The Wealth Machine That Rising Interest Rates Create Conflict With The National Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Dan_Amerman

"Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world."          Albert Einstein

"My wealth has come from a combination of living in America, some lucky genes, and compound interest."          Warren Buffett

Compound interest is an extraordinarily powerful financial tool, and reinvesting the cash flows received from investments has historically been the single most reliable way of building wealth over the long term.

For many people, understanding the power of compound interest is the very heart of financial literacy. Compound interest is the reason why people are urged to begin investing for retirement in their 20s and 30s, because having an extra decade or two for interest earnings on interest earnings to work their magic creates a wealth building machine, and far larger savings than would be amassed by someone starting in their 40s or 50s.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 18, 2018

How to Legally Manipulate Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Market Manipulation

By: Science_Investing

Rationale Behind Quantitative Easing

The Fed embarked on asset purchases, which they call quantitative easing or QE, during the global financial crisis 2007-2008. The move was motivated by a complete loss of confidence in the financial system. As a result, investors and financial institutions feared losses due to large scale bankruptcies. Liquidity dried up completely and money was hoarded in allegedly safe places. The Fed stepped in with various measures and effectively returned confidence to markets. Quantitative Easing was among these whilst it was applied for the first time in US monetary history. 

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, March 17, 2018

The Bank of Japan bought 75% of JGBs in FY17… and Yields Are Still Up / Interest-Rates / Japanese Interest Rates

By: Graham_Summers

The insanity of Central Bankers knows no bounds.

The latest indication of just how far “down the rabbit hole” the financial world has gone comes from Japan where it was announced that the Bank of Japan bought 75% of Japanese Government Debt issuance in FY17.

That is not a typo. Japan’s Central Bank bought $3 out of every $4 in debt Japan issued in fiscal year 2017. And it now owns 40% of Japan’s total debt outstanding.

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