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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, August 07, 2017

The Death of Abenomics; the Rise of Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Japanese Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

Job approval numbers for Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe are in freefall. Abe's support has now fallen below 30%, and his Liberal Democratic Party recently suffered heavy losses stemming from a slew of scandals revolving around illegal subsidies received by a close associate of his wife.

But as we have seen back on this side of the hemisphere, the public’s interest in these political scandals can be easily overlooked if the underlying economic conditions are favorable. For instance, voters were apathetic when the House introduced impeachment proceedings at the end of 1998 against Bill Clinton for perjury and abuse of power. And Clinton’s perjury scandal was indefensible upon discovery of that infamous Blue Dress. The average citizen, then busily counting their chips from the dot-com casino, were disinterested in Clinton’s wrongdoings because the 1998 economy was booming. Clinton remained in office, and his Democratic party gained seats in the 1998 mid-term elections.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 03, 2017

The Fed’s Manipulations Have Rendered The Yield Curve Useless As a Recession Indicator / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Mauldin

The yield curve has always had an excellent forecasting record.

The Fed’s own wacky policies may have skewed this early-warning system’s reliability, but an interpretive adjustment can restore its usefulness.

This indicator has allowed me to predict the last two recessions.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 03, 2017

Raising the US Debt Ceiling Means Jacking Up Future Inflation / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: MoneyMetals

By Stefan Gleason : The dramatic failure of the U.S. Senate’s last-ditch Obamacare repeal effort leaves Republicans so far without a major legislative win since Donald Trump took office. No healthcare reform. No tax reform. No monetary reform. No budgetary reform.

The more things change in Washington... the more they stay the same.

Despite an unconventional outsider in the White House, it’s business as usual for entrenched incumbents of both parties. The next major order of business for the bipartisan establishment is to raise the debt ceiling above $20 trillion.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 03, 2017

America's Finances in a Better World / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: DeviantInvestor

In a better world we might expect:

  • Individuals, corporations, and governments spend no more than their income.
  • “Honest” money is used by all, has intrinsic value, retains its purchasing power and is not counterfeited by individuals or bankers.
  • Governments and bankers support and encourage “honest” money.
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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, August 01, 2017

The Fed’s Monetary Tantrum Will Push The Economy Into Outright Deflation / Interest-Rates / Deflation

By: John_Mauldin

It is increasingly evident that the US economy is not taking off like some predicted after the election.

President Trump and the Republicans haven’t passed any of the fiscal stimulus measures we hoped to see. Banks and energy companies have got some regulatory relief, and that helps. But it’s a far cry from the sweeping healthcare reform, tax cuts, and infrastructure spending we were promised.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, August 01, 2017

Here’s The Real Reason The Fed Is Making Absurd Monetary Decisions / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Mauldin

I have often written about the Fed's abysmal track record in managing the economy. Here Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment Management explain the reasons for the Fed's consistently poor track record.

They start by considering the Fed’s “dual mandate,” which sets “the goals of maximum employment, stable prices and moderate long-term interest rates.” (And yes, that is actually three goals, not two.)

But a problem arises, the authors note, “because considerable time elapses between the implementation of the monetary actions designed to follow the mandate and when the impact of those actions take effect on broader business conditions.”

The time lag can easily be three years or longer, with the result that policy changes often end up being pro-rather than countercyclical. To make matters even worse, “the economic risks from adherence to this dual mandate are now much greater than historically due to the economy’s extreme over-indebtedness, poor demographics and a fragile global economy.”

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, July 30, 2017

368 TRILLION Reasons the Fed Won’t “Normalize” Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Graham_Summers

Many commentators are baffled as to why the Fed has suddenly reversed course. Throughout 2017 the Fed has talked repeatedly about raising rates several times as well as shrinking its balance sheet.

Then in the span of a single month, the Fed just about dropped all of this. Fed Chair Janet Yellen, speaking to Congress, confessed that the Fed is just about done with rate hikes and that any balance sheet reduction will NOT be used to drain liquidity from the system.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 27, 2017

Why Surging UK Household Debt Will Cause The Next Crisis / Interest-Rates / UK Debt

By: GoldCore

– Easy credit offered by UK banks is endangering “everyone else in the economy”
– UK banks are “dicing with the spiral of complacency” again
– Bank of England official believes household debt is good in moderation
– Household debt now equals 135% of household income
– Now costs half of average income to raise a child
– Real incomes not keeping up with real inflation
– 41% of those in debt are in full-time work
– £1.537 trillion owed by the end of May 2017

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Central Banks ARE The Crisis / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Raul_I_Meijer

If there’s one myth -and there are many- that we should invalidate in the cross-over world of politics and economics, it‘s that central banks have saved us from a financial crisis. It’s a carefully construed myth, but it’s as false as can be. Our central banks have caused our financial crises, not saved us from them.

It really should -but doesn’t- make us cringe uncontrollably to see Bank of England governor-for-hire Mark Carney announce -straightfaced- that:

“A decade after the start of the global financial crisis, G20 reforms are building a safer, simpler and fairer financial system. “We have fixed the issues that caused the last crisis. They were fundamental and deep-seated, which is why it was such a major job.”

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Interest-Rates

Friday, July 21, 2017

Are Central Bankers Secretly Terrified? / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Graham_Summers

Central Bankers are absolutely terrified.

In the last month, both Fed President Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi have issued somewhat hawkish statements, only to turn around within 48 hours and walk back their comments.

Again, two of the most powerful Central Bankers in the world couldn’t even last three days being hawks.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 20, 2017

The Fed May Show Trump No Love / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Peter_Schiff

Typically, U.S. Presidents are wary of claiming stock market performance as a referendum on their success. Most have seemed to understand that taking credit also means accepting blame, and no one would want to make the tortured argument that the positive moves reflect well on their presidency but that the negative moves do not. But Donald Trump has shown no reluctance to make any argument that suits his political purpose of the day, no matter its absurdity, and no matter if he has to contradict the arguments he made last year, or last week. Perhaps he assumes, as most investors seem to, that the risks are minimal because the Federal Reserve will jump in to save the markets if things turn bad. But in binding his performance so closely to the markets he overlooks the possibility that the Fed will be far less charitable to him than it was to Obama.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 20, 2017

The Student Loan Bubble and Economic Collapse / Interest-Rates / Student Finances

By: Antonius_Aquinas

The inevitable collapse of the student loan “market” and with it the takedown of many higher educational institutions will be one of the happiest and much needed events to look forward to in the coming months/years. Whether the student loan bubble bursts on its own or implodes due to a general economic collapse, does not matter as long as higher education is dealt a death blow and can no longer be a conduit of socialist and egalitarian nonsense for the inculcation of young minds.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, July 14, 2017

Subprime Auto Loans Up, Car Sales Down: Why This Could Be Good for Gold / Interest-Rates / Auto Sector

By: HAA

The latest monthly motor vehicle sales report released on July 3 paints a grim picture for US car sales. Overall June sales dropped by 3% compared to June of last year—the sixth successive month of lower year-over-year sales.

General Motors, Ford, and Fiat Chrysler were among the greatest losers with declines between 4.7% and 7%. Japan’s top sellers fared a little better, with Nissan seeing 2% growth and Toyota a 2.1% gain.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, July 09, 2017

Did Junk Bonds Just Signal the End to This Credit Cycle? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

Stocks are now in very serious trouble.

The S&P 500 has fallen to test its “election rally” trendline. If the market breaks down here, there’s essentially one giant “air pocket” down to 2,200 or so.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, July 07, 2017

If The Fed’s Members Spent Some Time As Uber Drivers, Our Monetary Policy Would Be Saner / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : John Mauldin wrote a letter last year called “Life on the Edge” that I think was one of his most important ever. It drew more reader feedback than anything else of John’s I’ve seen.

Drawing on Peggy Noonan’s Protected vs. Unprotected theme, John described how our economy has left so many people behind. Their anger, much of it well-justified, is one reason Donald Trump is now president.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 06, 2017

Italy Has Ignored ECB Regulations And Bailed Out Its Banks Again / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2017

By: John_Mauldin

By Xander Snyder : The Italian government has bailed out its banks again. Unwittingly, it has shown just how ineffective the European Central Bank is.

Rome recently finalized a deal to save one of the country’s largest and most important commercial banks, Monte dei Paschi di Siena. In another deal, Intesa Sanpaolo, a much more stable bank, will bail out Veneto Banca and Banca Popolare di Vicenza.

Both agreements involve Italian government funds and prevent senior creditors from incurring losses. That skirts the European Union’s strictest banking regulations, which allow Brussels to impose losses on senior bondholders.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 05, 2017

Fed Officials Say More Hikes Are on The Way, Markets Disagree / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: MoneyMetals

By Clint Siegner : Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen says she is planning more hikes in the Fed funds rate, but you wouldn’t know it by watching the markets. So far, the response in foreign exchange, bonds, and equities isn’t what people expected.

Markets have always been notorious for behaving unpredictably.

But in an age when central bankers micromanage virtually all markets, the behavior could be the result of careful planning. Maybe the recent market action was only unpredictable for those of us outside of the FOMC conference room.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 05, 2017

Will Trump Fire Yellen or Vice Versa / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Michael_Pento

Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index just hit its lowest level since August 2011. But this level of disappointment has ironically emboldened the Fed to step up its hawkish monetary rhetoric. The truth is that the hard economic data is grossly missing analyst estimates to the downside as the economy inexorably grinds towards recession. This anemic growth and inflation data should have been sufficient to stay the Fed's hand for the rest of this year and cause it to forgo the unwinding of its balance sheet.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, July 03, 2017

NY Fed President Just Admitted Ignoring The Bond Market… I Have A Theory / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

Speaking at a Business Roundtable event, New York Fed President William Dudley reportedly expressed great confidence in both the economy and the Fed’s policy moves.

Dudley is not even slightly concerned about the Fed’s overshooting with its rate hikes. In fact, he is supremely confident that inflation will overshoot if the Fed doesn’t tighten policy.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, July 02, 2017

Central Bankers Just Lit the Fuse on a $217 TRILLION Debt Bomb / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2017

By: Graham_Summers

As we noted yesterday, the world’s Central Banks have begun sending signals that the price of money in the financial system (bond yields) is going to be rising.

Why is this a big deal?

Because globally the world has packed on $68 TRILLION in debt since 2007. And ALL of this was issued based on the assumption that bond yields would be remaining at or near record lows.

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