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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Does The National Debt Supercycle Override The Normal U.S. Interest Rate Cycle? / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Dan_Amerman

Markets and economies usually run in cycles and there have been numerous previous reversals where falling interest rates have been replaced by rising interest rates. The soothing reassurances from many financial authorities and much of the financial media are that there is no need for the general public to worry - because this sort of thing is quite normal.

But is this actually true? Have we really been "here" before?

Or are there are major differences between this time around and the previous cycles of rising interest rates which mean that much of recent history may not apply at all?

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Get Your Money Out of Italian Banks Now! Austerity and Bail-Ins Fan Populist Flames / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2015

By: Mike_Shedlock

Austerity and Bail-Ins Fan Populist Flames

The Italian economy is growing, albeit barely. But Italy is still saddled with massive amounts of debt.

Citizens are upset about a recovery that has passed most of them by. For example, youth unemployment is a whopping 39.8%.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Monetary Policy Monster With A Key To Its Own Cage / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2015

By: John_Rubino

Out on the fringes of monetary policy, a merger of sorts is taking place between the debt jubilee and Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). The result — likely to emerge sometime in 2016 — will make the past decade’s bank bailouts and QE programs look like kid stuff.

Let’s start by defining these terms:

The debt jubilee — an idea from biblical times in which debts are periodically forgiven — involves the government creating a lot of new currency and giving it to debtors, either through stepped-up public spending, tax cuts, or some sort of direct transfer. A more recent term for this is “helicopter money,” which reflects a central bank’s ability to simply drop newly-printed bills out of an aircraft if necessary.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Is This Interest Rate Hike Rigged? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

It’s official.

This week the Federal Reserve raised the key overnight Fed Funds rate by 0.25%. The move was discussed, debated, argued, and telegraphed to death. We all heard about it until we hoped anything else financial would happen so we could finally put the tired story to rest.

Now that the rate hike is on the books, we can start talking about outcomes, like how in the world the Fed intends to enforce the rate hike, what it means, and what comes next.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 21, 2015

Beware of Central Bank Success / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Michael_Pento

The most important question investors will soon have to face is: "what's going to happen once central banks finally meet their inflation targets?"

For example, let's assume after years of monetizing government debt, bidding up equity prices, and forcing debt on the public by keeping borrowing costs at or below zero; that the ECB is finally able to achieve its inflation target rate of 2%. This would only occur once money supply growth becomes both robust and sustainable. It is silly to believe ECB President Mario Draghi can bring inflation to just 2% and nail it at that level. Inflation will continue to rise past 2% until the ECB raises interest rates by reducing its pace of bond buying. So, we will have the environment where inflation is rising north of 2% and the central bank will be forced to start cutting back its purchases of debt and preparing the market for eventual outright sales.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 21, 2015

Yellen has Lift Off, But Rates Won’t Go To The Moon / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Sam_Kirtley

At the FOMC meeting last week the Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 2006. This was a historic moment marks the first rate hike after the Fed engaged in massive quantitative easing programs to combat the Global Financial Crisis and the Great Recession. However, we are not economists or economic historians. We run a trading service and are therefore concerned with where the markets will go next. This means that our key point of analysis is around where rates will go next, rather than what they did last week.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 21, 2015

Ron Paul - Do We Need the Fed? / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Dr_Ron_Paul

Stocks rose Wednesday following the Federal Reserve's announcement of the first interest rate increase since 2006. However, stocks fell just two days later. One reason the positive reaction to the Fed's announcement did not last long is that the Fed seems to lack confidence in the economy and is unsure what policies it should adopt in the future.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, December 20, 2015

U.S. Interest Rates Yield Curve Flattening Further, Why it Matters / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Dan_Norcini

I am becoming increasingly concerned over the flattening yield curve. This curve enables us to get a first hand view of sentiment towards economic growth among bond investors and other large players in the interest rate markets, some of whom are among the most sophisticated observers of the financial scene anywhere.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, December 19, 2015

U.S. Fed Mission Accomplished / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Peter_Schiff

On May 1, 2003 on the flight deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln then President George W. Bush, after becoming the first U.S. president to land on an aircraft carrier in a fixed wing aircraft (in a dashing olive drab flight suit), declared underneath an enormous "Mission Accomplished" banner that "major combat operations" in Iraq had been concluded, that regime change had been effected, and that America had prevailed in its mission to transform the Middle East. 13 years later, after years of additional combat operations in Iraq, and a Middle East that is spiraling out of control and increasingly disdainful of America's influence, we look back at the "Mission Accomplished" event as the epitome of false confidence and premature celebration.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, December 18, 2015

U.S. Yield Curve and Spreads: Fed's Real Policy Error in Pictures; What's Next? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Mike_Shedlock

Inquiring minds may be interested in a detailed look at the yield curve and spreads between various durations following the Fed's Wednesday rate hike. Let's start with a long-term chart from 1996 to 2015.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, December 17, 2015

Fed Rate Hike - Yellen Nailed It! / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Bloomberg

Larry Fink, Chairman & CEO of BlackRock, spoke with Erik Schatzker, Stephanie Ruhle and David Westin on Bloomberg TV's "Bloomberg <GO>." He discussed the Federal Reserve rate increase, the possibility of dollar-euro trading at parity, and his economic outlook for 2016.

Fink praised Janet Yellen after the Fed raised interest rates yesterday: "I think she nailed it. It was not too hot, not too cold, right down the center. I think it was a very well scripted conference…And the most important thing, what she gave the market is clarity. I think the opportunity they missed in September, why the markets were so unsettled because we had no clarity on their actions. And in this case they really expressed exactly what they're looking for."

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, December 17, 2015

Marc Faber - Federal Reserve Rate Hike At ‘Precisely The Wrong Time’ / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: GoldCore

Marc Faber, the editor of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, warned yesterday that the Federal Reserve has raised rates at “precisely the wrong time.”

Speaking to CNBC just before the interest rate decision, Faber warned that it’s the wrong time because “the global economy has decelerated very badly, and many countries are already in recession, or going into recession.”

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

U.S. Interest Rate Hike Too late, Recession Likely in Next 12 Months - Video / Interest-Rates / Recession 2016

By: Bloomberg

Sam Zell, chairman at Equity Group Investments, spoke with Stephanie Ruhle and David Westin on Bloomberg TV's "Bloomberg <GO>." He discussed the expected Federal Reserve rate hike, the risk of a near-term recession, and investor flexibility provided by low-interest.

Zell said: "I think that this interest rate hike is probably 6 or 8 months too late. I think that the economy is closer to falling over than it is to going up."

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Did "Tight" Fed Interest Rates Policy Cause the Financial Crisis? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Robert_Murphy

Recently Senator Ted Cruz aggressively questioned Janet Yellen on the Fed’s possible role in causing the financial crisis and subsequent recession. In particular, he claimed that “in the summer of 2008” the Fed “told markets that it was shifting to a tighter monetary policy,” and that this announcement “set off a scramble for cash, which caused the dollar to soar, asset prices to collapse, and CPI [growth — RPM] to fall below zero, which set the stage for the crisis.” Cruz asked Yellen if she agreed with Bernanke’s view from his new book, in which he says the Fed made a mistake by not cutting rates in September 2008.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

D-Day for Fed Fiat Credit System - Video / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Mario_Innecco

Transcript Excerpt - December 16 2015 Wednesday it's the day will decide to hike interest rates
that's what most people think it's almost like a done deal so in my opinion
it's the Fed trying to deflate the biggest credit bubble amber and I guess
we don't have to go into details about that we all know that debt and credit
has been the highest ever USA national debt at almost 19 trillion so far it's
more than doubled since President Obama came to power so today will be the first
rate hike since I began its zero interest rate policy or its server or

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Federal Reserve At End Of Monetary Road / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: GoldCore

The all important context for Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, where the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hike interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade has been examined by the insightful Grant Williams. He is very skeptical of the Fed’s ability to continue to control markets much longer … and this is a gross understatement:

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Have You Considered What Wil Happen If the Fed DOESN’T Raise U.S. Interest Rates? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Rodney_Johnson

We’ve gotten it into our heads that Fed Chair Janet Yellen is on her way down from the mountain top carrying stone tablets etched with the details of a rate hike. We don’t know exactly what form it will take, but let there be no doubt – the financial gods have spoken, so a rate hike there will be!

But it’s not that simple.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the group that determines monetary policy. This group must reach a consensus on policy changes before anything new can happen.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Is This Just the Beginning of the Euro Debt Crisis? / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Harry_Dent

I've been shocked over how much QE and stimulus the central banks have signed on for in the last seven years, but they’re finally starting to reach their limit.

The U.S. already did in 2014 when the Fed finally tapered. And this week, the markets are betting on a rate hike – never mind the trouble brewing in China, other emerging markets, and now Europe.


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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 14, 2015

Janet Yellen, U.S. Zero Interest Rates - Déjà vu all over Again / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: James_Quinn

Janet Yellen will increase interest rates for the first time in nine years on Wednesday. She isn’t raising them because the economy is strengthening. The economy just happens to be weakening rapidly, as global recession takes hold. The stock market is 3% lower than it was in December 2014, and has basically done nothing since the end of QE3. Wall Street is throwing a hissy fit to try and stop Janet from boosting rates by an inconsequential .25%. Janet would prefer not to raise rates, but the credibility and reputation of her bubble blowing machine is at stake. The Fed has enriched their Wall Street benefactors over the last six years, while destroying the real economy and the middle class.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, December 12, 2015

Soaring Bond Yields - This Is How Fast It Happens / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds

By: Raul_I_Meijer

For a while there, companies deemed to be highly risky were nonetheless able to borrow money for less than 6%. And borrow they did. Frackers, ultra-high-leverage retail chains and various other close-to-the-edge entities slurped up trillions from yield-starved investors who had forgotten about the other side of the risk/return equation.

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