Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, March 18, 2018
How to Legally Manipulate Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Market Manipulation
By: Science_Investing
Rationale Behind Quantitative Easing
The Fed embarked on asset purchases, which they call quantitative easing or QE, during the global financial crisis 2007-2008. The move was motivated by a complete loss of confidence in the financial system. As a result, investors and financial institutions feared losses due to large scale bankruptcies. Liquidity dried up completely and money was hoarded in allegedly safe places. The Fed stepped in with various measures and effectively returned confidence to markets. Quantitative Easing was among these whilst it was applied for the first time in US monetary history.
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Saturday, March 17, 2018
The Bank of Japan bought 75% of JGBs in FY17… and Yields Are Still Up / Interest-Rates / Japanese Interest Rates
By: Graham_Summers
The insanity of Central Bankers knows no bounds.
The latest indication of just how far “down the rabbit hole” the financial world has gone comes from Japan where it was announced that the Bank of Japan bought 75% of Japanese Government Debt issuance in FY17.
That is not a typo. Japan’s Central Bank bought $3 out of every $4 in debt Japan issued in fiscal year 2017. And it now owns 40% of Japan’s total debt outstanding.
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Tuesday, March 13, 2018
The Bond Market is SCREAMING Inflation, But Stock Investors are Clueless / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
Inflation is now reaching a crescendo.
The fact is that inflation develops in stages in the economy. The first stage concerns the price of items being bought and sold by wholesalers. We saw this begin to surge starting in the middle of last year. And it was a global phenomenon.
Paying more for something is manageable for a while. However, at some point the increase in prices is passed on into the economy in the form of more expensive goods and services. This is when inflation truly begins to become a problem.
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Tuesday, March 13, 2018
Gerald Celente "If Rates go up too High, the Economy goes Down, End of Story" / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Gerald Celente, publisher of the renowned Trends Journal. Mr. Celente is perhaps the most well-known trends forecaster in the world and it's always great to have him on with us.
Mr. Celente, thanks again for the time today and welcome back.
Gerald Celente: Oh, it's always great being on. Thank you.
Mike Gleason: Well, Gerald, it's never a dull moment in Washington, D.C., these days. President Trump always keeps it lively. We have the never-ending Russia controversy, of course, the war of words with North Korea, and the intervention in Syria have both been regulars in the headlines over the past year. Now Trump is talking about tariffs and people are worried about a trade war. Volatility is coming back to the stock markets and some investors are getting nervous about rising interest rates. When it comes to Russia interfering in U.S. elections, it seems more or less like a smoke screen. We have very little doubt there is plenty of collusion and a fair bit of it involved Hillary shepherding the Uranium One deal over the finish line.
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Tuesday, March 13, 2018
US Interest Rate Tsunami Waves Spotted Just Offshore / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Michael_Pento
We should all be familiar with the aphorism, “as real estate goes so goes the economy.” Anyone ignoring that economic axiom was completely blindsided by the Great Recession of 2008. Well, the collapse of the Everything Bubble most certainly includes the real estate market…and this time around will definitely not be different.
The plain and simple fact is that home ownership is getting further out of reach for the average consumer as mortgage rates rise. This is especially true for the first-time home buyer. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now the highest level since January 2014, 4.64%
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Friday, March 09, 2018
US Bond Market 3 Amigos Bottom Line / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Tanashian
You thought I was done with the Amigos shtick, did you? Not by a long shot ma’am. They are the happy-go-lucky riders in play as the stock bull market churns on. They are the rising SPX/Gold ratio and stocks in general vs. gold (Amigo #1), rising US 10yr & 30yr yields (Amigo #2) and the flattening 10-2 yield curve (Amigo #3). On their current trends these goofy riders have signaled “a-okay!” to casino patrons playing the stock market and other risk ‘on’ items.
Taking our macro indicators out of order, let’s start with Amigo #2, who we have been noting to be bracing for something…
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Thursday, March 01, 2018
US Interest Rates - Should You "Fret" Over the New Fed Chair's Possible Actions? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: EWI
Learn what really governs the trend of interest rates
Is new Fed Chair Jerome Powell a hawk -- meaning, will he aggressively raise rates to curb inflation?
That's what investors are asking as Powell makes his first appearance before Congress in his new role. The belief that Powell will be hawkish has already rattled markets, according to some observers (Reuters, Feb. 23):
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Thursday, March 01, 2018
The Potential $54 Trillion Cost Of The Fed's Planned Interest Rate Increases / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Dan_Amerman
The United States national debt is currently about $20 trillion, and the federal government is paying some of the lowest interest rates in history on that debt. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates five times now, and is publicly considering another seven increases between 2018 and 2020, for a total increase of 3%.
What will be the impact on the national debt and deficits if the interest payments on the debt jump upwards because of the actions of the Fed?
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Tuesday, February 27, 2018
Stocks? Who Cares? You Should Worry about Something Else, Bonds! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Investors are still worried about the stock market. It’s quite understandable, given the recent correction, but it draws their attention away from the really important developments. Let’s analyze the hidden threats and consider how they could affect the gold prices.
It’s Bonds, Stupid!
Let’s establish one thing at the beginning. The bond market is more important than the stock market. First, it’s significantly bigger. The global bond market exceeds $100 trillion, while the global stock market is higher than $70 trillion. Point for bonds.
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Monday, February 26, 2018
Bonds and Related Financial Market Indicators / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Gary_Tanashian
The following is an excerpt from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 488. For NFTRH bonds are not just an asset class ‘throw-in’ but instead are a key indicator set to the entire modern macro. Insofar as it may be time to use them for portfolio balance (I am currently long SHV, SHY, IEI & IEF), so much the better. Many could not wait to buy bonds during US ZIRP global NIRP operations, but today they pay better interest and have a contrarian edge with the entire herd bracing for a bear market.
We claimed appropriately bearish on bonds on December 4th, so you know this is not perma-book talking when we go the other way as yields hit our targets.
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Thursday, February 22, 2018
The Latest US Debt Blow / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Rodney_Johnson
Count me among the worriers that thought our debt was a problem at $10 trillion… and then at $15 trillion.I was wrong.
Or, at least, those levels didn’t seem to phase investors, who kept putting down their cold, hard cash to buy U.S. Treasury bonds.
As I shook my head over the past several years, we continued our profligate ways, and now our national debt stands at a whopping $20.5 trillion, slightly more than our annual GDP.
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Tuesday, February 20, 2018
4% US 10-year Treasury Note Yield Will Be a Floor Not a Ceiling / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
The two most important factors in determining the level of sovereign bond yields are the credit and inflation risks extant within a nation. When determining a country’s ability to service its debt investors must analyze not only the absolute debt level, but also the ratios of debt and deficits to GDP. In addition, the current rate of inflation must also be viewed within the context of debt in order to make an accurate assumption as to the level of future inflation.
When analyzing historical measures of these criteria, the conclusion reached is that the U.S. 10-year Note yield should rise to at least four percent in the coming quarters.
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Wednesday, February 14, 2018
Global Debt Crisis II Cometh / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2018
By: GoldCore
– Global debt ‘area of weakness’ and could ‘induce financial panic’ – King warns
– Global debt to GDP now 40 per cent higher than it was a decade ago – BIS warn
– Global non-financial corporate debt grew by 15% to 96% of GDP in the past six years
– US mortgage rates hit highest level since May 2014
– US student loans near $1.4 trillion, 40% expected to default in next 5 years
– UK consumer debt hit £200b, highest level in 30 years, 25% of households behind on repayments
Monday, February 12, 2018
Reckless Deficit Spending by Congress Set to Wreck the Dollar / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: MoneyMetals
U.S. equities got a free ride on the Trump train after his election, even as Federal Reserve officials hiked interest rates. That ride may have ended last week.
If commentators are correct and the blame for recent selling in the stock market falls on the burgeoning fear of rising interest rates, it looks like Fed tightening is finally having the effect many predicted when the cycle began.
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Sunday, February 11, 2018
The Fed’s Impossible Choice, In Three Charts / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: John_Rubino
Critics of “New Age” monetary policy have been predicting that central banks would eventually run out of ways to trick people into borrowing money. There are at least three reasons to wonder if that time has finally come:
Wage inflation is accelerating
Normally, towards the end of a cycle companies have trouble finding enough workers to keep up with their rising sales. So they start paying new hires more generously. This ignites “wage inflation,” which is one of the signals central banks use to decide when to start raising interest rates. The following chart shows a big jump in wages in the second half of 2017. And that’s before all those $1,000 bonuses that companies have lately been handing out in response to lower corporate taxes. So it’s a safe bet that wage inflation will accelerate during the first half of 2018.
Wednesday, February 07, 2018
Is The 37 Year Bullish US Treasury Bond Market Ending? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: ElliottWave-Forecast
The bond market has enjoyed a strong bull market for nearly four decades with yields continuing to go lower. The bull market has been going on for so long that no current active fund manager can imagine what it looks like when interest rates were to be like the 1980s at 20%. If people in the 1980s started trading in their early thirties, they would have been almost 70 years old by now, so chances are they are not active in the market anymore.
Monday, February 05, 2018
Global Synchronized US Bond Collapse / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
We have all heard, in ad nauseam fashion, Wall Street’s current favorite mantra touting a global synchronized economic recovery. For the record, global GDP growth for 2017 was 3.7%, according to the International Monetary Fund. And, although this is an improvement from recent years, you must take into account that in 2004 it was 4.4%, in 2005 it was 3.8%, in 2006 it was 4.3%, and in 2007 it was 4.2%. The Point being, it’s not as if the current rate of global growth has climbed to a level never before witnessed in history—it’s not even close.
However, the more salient phenomenon now underway—far more important than the rather pedestrian move higher in global GDP--is the globally synchronized bond collapse, which the Main Stream Financial Media is dismissing with alacrity. Yields are on the move higher around the world and the rate of change is now escalating.
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Sunday, February 04, 2018
10yr Yield Nears Target, ‘Inflation Trade’ Failing, Gold Sector Shaking Off Inflation Bugs / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Tanashian
Over and over again I’ve been making goofy headlines about the Amigos, the 3 macro riders who will reach (or abort) their respective destinations, at which point the macro is subject to change. The latest update was yesterday with a daily chart view.
Just look at them, the SPX vs. Gold Amigo, the 10yr & 30yr Yield Amigo and the Yield Curve Amigo. So happy-go-lucky while they ride. But #2, the one in the middle, looks like he’s bracing for something.
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Thursday, February 01, 2018
Will the Threat of a Bear Market in Bonds Finally Get Stocks Attention? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
The single most important bond in the world is the US 10-Year Treasury bond.
According to modern financial theory, this bond, with a duration that is meant to cover a full economic cycle, is generally considered the “risk free” rate of the return for the entire financial system.
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Thursday, February 01, 2018
US Treasury Yields Inflating? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Submissions
FundamentalsThe Herd is running into one direction. It is from bonds into stocks. The latest BAML Fund Manager report showed an intresting picture. Extreme flows have been recorded over the past couple of months relative to the past 12 years. That came on top of the fact that flows were at elevated levels throughout the past 14 months already.
The investment reasoning behind that gets confirmed by economic fundamentals. The US economy is expanding, retail sales have risen to all-time highs, unemployment is at a multidecade low, and new home sales look as good as they have never looked for the past 10 years.
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