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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Friday, April 06, 2018

Why Are Markets Going Bonkers? Central Bankers Tried to Corner the Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

The big questions being tossed around Wall Street today are: why are markets such a mess? Why are we getting these wild swings?

The reality is that the markets are NOT a mess. These are actually normal healthy markets. Healthy markets move, sometimes a lot in a small span of time.

The real issue is that from ’09 until recently, the market was completely artificial because Central Banks cornered ALL risk by cornering the sovereign bond market.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Uncle Sam Issuing $300 Billion In New Debt This Week Alone / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: GoldCore

– US needs to borrow almost $300 billion this week alone
– This is the largest debt issuance since 2008 financial crisis
– Trump threatens trade war with its biggest creditor – China
– Bond auctions have seen weak demand due to large supply and trade war concerns
– $20 trillion mark reached in early September 2017; $1 trillion added in just 6 months
– US total national debt level now exceeds $21.05 trillion and is accelerating higher
– U.S. debt and dollar crisis coming which will propel gold higher (see chart)

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

Eurozone Faces Many Threats Including Trade Wars and “Eurozone Time-Bomb” In Italy / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: GoldCore

– Eurozone threatened by trade wars, Italy and major political and economic instability
– Trade war holds a clear and present danger to stability and economic prospects
– Italy represents major source of potential disruption for the currency union
– Financial markets fail to reflect the “eurozone time-bomb” in Italy

– Financial volatility concerns in Brussels & warning of ‘sharp correction’ on horizon
– Euro and global currency debasement and bank bail-in risks

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

New Research Foretells QE Domination / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: F_F_Wiley

The title refers to a consensus-shattering paper that was unveiled at the University of Chicago last month before a Who’s Who of economists and central bankers.

Paul Krugman gave the keynote, but the meeting’s focus was on the paper’s authors—two Wall Street big shots, Morgan Stanley’s David Greenlaw and Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Ethan Harris, and two academics, James Hamilton and Kenneth West. To keep it simple, I’ll call them GHHW.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

The Federal Reserve – Purpose And Motivation / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Kelsey_Williams

With each succeeding day, obsession with the Federal Reserve continues. And the obsession is a good indicator of just how misinformed most of us are.

This is true with respect to various policies, statements, and actions; and includes comments made by board members, either in speeches or interviews. But it is also true regarding purpose and motivation.

To a large extent, it is a matter of perception. Some, maybe most, people see the Fed as the lead driver. There is an assumed aura of authority and control. On all matters economic, we look to them for direction. But where are they taking us? 

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Chaos is the Only Way Out of Interest Rates Normalisation / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

The prevailing fiction pervading Wall Street right now is that economic growth is picking up in a sustainable fashion and that interest rates will merely rise slowly. Then, soon level off at historically low levels. In other words, they are selling a fairytale; and a dangerous one at that.

This premise is blatantly false. The Fed’s reverse QE program, Government debt levels and Nominal Gross Domestic Product, all dictate that the 10-year Note Yield should be now swiftly on its way to at least 4.5%, from the artificial level of 1.4% found in July of 2016.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Credit Concerns In U.S. Growing As LIBOR OIS Surges to 2009 High / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2018

By: GoldCore

Key Metric LIBOR OIS Signals Major Credit Concerns

– Widening of the spread between LIBOR OIS (overnight index swap) rate raises concerns
– Spread jumped to 9 year widest spread, rising to 54.6bps, most since May 2009.
– Libor recently moved to over 2% for first time since 2008
– Wider spread usually associated with heightened credit concerns

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 19, 2018

The Wealth Machine That Rising Interest Rates Create Conflict With The National Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Dan_Amerman

"Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world."          Albert Einstein

"My wealth has come from a combination of living in America, some lucky genes, and compound interest."          Warren Buffett

Compound interest is an extraordinarily powerful financial tool, and reinvesting the cash flows received from investments has historically been the single most reliable way of building wealth over the long term.

For many people, understanding the power of compound interest is the very heart of financial literacy. Compound interest is the reason why people are urged to begin investing for retirement in their 20s and 30s, because having an extra decade or two for interest earnings on interest earnings to work their magic creates a wealth building machine, and far larger savings than would be amassed by someone starting in their 40s or 50s.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 18, 2018

How to Legally Manipulate Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Market Manipulation

By: Science_Investing

Rationale Behind Quantitative Easing

The Fed embarked on asset purchases, which they call quantitative easing or QE, during the global financial crisis 2007-2008. The move was motivated by a complete loss of confidence in the financial system. As a result, investors and financial institutions feared losses due to large scale bankruptcies. Liquidity dried up completely and money was hoarded in allegedly safe places. The Fed stepped in with various measures and effectively returned confidence to markets. Quantitative Easing was among these whilst it was applied for the first time in US monetary history. 

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, March 17, 2018

The Bank of Japan bought 75% of JGBs in FY17… and Yields Are Still Up / Interest-Rates / Japanese Interest Rates

By: Graham_Summers

The insanity of Central Bankers knows no bounds.

The latest indication of just how far “down the rabbit hole” the financial world has gone comes from Japan where it was announced that the Bank of Japan bought 75% of Japanese Government Debt issuance in FY17.

That is not a typo. Japan’s Central Bank bought $3 out of every $4 in debt Japan issued in fiscal year 2017. And it now owns 40% of Japan’s total debt outstanding.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

The Bond Market is SCREAMING Inflation, But Stock Investors are Clueless / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

Inflation is now reaching a crescendo.

The fact is that inflation develops in stages in the economy. The first stage concerns the price of items being bought and sold by wholesalers. We saw this begin to surge starting in the middle of last year. And it was a global phenomenon.

Paying more for something is manageable for a while. However, at some point the increase in prices is passed on into the economy in the form of more expensive goods and services. This is when inflation truly begins to become a problem.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

Gerald Celente "If Rates go up too High, the Economy goes Down, End of Story" / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Gerald Celente, publisher of the renowned Trends Journal. Mr. Celente is perhaps the most well-known trends forecaster in the world and it's always great to have him on with us.

Mr. Celente, thanks again for the time today and welcome back.

Gerald Celente: Oh, it's always great being on. Thank you.

Mike Gleason: Well, Gerald, it's never a dull moment in Washington, D.C., these days. President Trump always keeps it lively. We have the never-ending Russia controversy, of course, the war of words with North Korea, and the intervention in Syria have both been regulars in the headlines over the past year. Now Trump is talking about tariffs and people are worried about a trade war. Volatility is coming back to the stock markets and some investors are getting nervous about rising interest rates. When it comes to Russia interfering in U.S. elections, it seems more or less like a smoke screen. We have very little doubt there is plenty of collusion and a fair bit of it involved Hillary shepherding the Uranium One deal over the finish line.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

US Interest Rate Tsunami Waves Spotted Just Offshore / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

We should all be familiar with the aphorism, “as real estate goes so goes the economy.” Anyone ignoring that economic axiom was completely blindsided by the Great Recession of 2008. Well, the collapse of the Everything Bubble most certainly includes the real estate market…and this time around will definitely not be different. 

The plain and simple fact is that home ownership is getting further out of reach for the average consumer as mortgage rates rise. This is especially true for the first-time home buyer. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now the highest level since January 2014, 4.64%

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 09, 2018

US Bond Market 3 Amigos Bottom Line / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

You thought I was done with the Amigos shtick, did you? Not by a long shot ma’am. They are the happy-go-lucky riders in play as the stock bull market churns on. They are the rising SPX/Gold ratio and stocks in general vs. gold (Amigo #1), rising US 10yr & 30yr yields (Amigo #2) and the flattening 10-2 yield curve (Amigo #3). On their current trends these goofy riders have signaled “a-okay!” to casino patrons playing the stock market and other risk ‘on’ items.

Taking our macro indicators out of order, let’s start with Amigo #2, who we have been noting to be bracing for something…

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 01, 2018

US Interest Rates - Should You "Fret" Over the New Fed Chair's Possible Actions? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: EWI

Learn what really governs the trend of interest rates

Is new Fed Chair Jerome Powell a hawk -- meaning, will he aggressively raise rates to curb inflation?

That's what investors are asking as Powell makes his first appearance before Congress in his new role. The belief that Powell will be hawkish has already rattled markets, according to some observers (Reuters, Feb. 23):

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 01, 2018

The Potential $54 Trillion Cost Of The Fed's Planned Interest Rate Increases / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Dan_Amerman

The United States national debt is currently about $20 trillion, and the federal government is paying some of the lowest interest rates in history on that debt. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates five times now, and is publicly considering another seven increases between 2018 and 2020, for a total increase of 3%.

What will be the impact on the national debt and deficits if the interest payments on the debt jump upwards because of the actions of the Fed?

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, February 27, 2018

Stocks? Who Cares? You Should Worry about Something Else, Bonds! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Investors are still worried about the stock market. It’s quite understandable, given the recent correction, but it draws their attention away from the really important developments. Let’s analyze the hidden threats and consider how they could affect the gold prices.

It’s Bonds, Stupid!

Let’s establish one thing at the beginning. The bond market is more important than the stock market. First, it’s significantly bigger. The global bond market exceeds $100 trillion, while the global stock market is higher than $70 trillion. Point for bonds.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 26, 2018

Bonds and Related Financial Market Indicators / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Gary_Tanashian

The following is an excerpt from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 488. For NFTRH bonds are not just an asset class ‘throw-in’ but instead are a key indicator set to the entire modern macro. Insofar as it may be time to use them for portfolio balance (I am currently long SHV, SHY, IEI & IEF), so much the better. Many could not wait to buy bonds during US ZIRP global NIRP operations, but today they pay better interest and have a contrarian edge with the entire herd bracing for a bear market.

We claimed appropriately bearish on bonds on December 4th, so you know this is not perma-book talking when we go the other way as yields hit our targets.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, February 22, 2018

The Latest US Debt Blow / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Rodney_Johnson

Count me among the worriers that thought our debt was a problem at $10 trillion… and then at $15 trillion.

I was wrong.

Or, at least, those levels didn’t seem to phase investors, who kept putting down their cold, hard cash to buy U.S. Treasury bonds.

As I shook my head over the past several years, we continued our profligate ways, and now our national debt stands at a whopping $20.5 trillion, slightly more than our annual GDP.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, February 20, 2018

4% US 10-year Treasury Note Yield Will Be a Floor Not a Ceiling / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

The two most important factors in determining the level of sovereign bond yields are the credit and inflation risks extant within a nation. When determining a country’s ability to service its debt investors must analyze not only the absolute debt level, but also the ratios of debt and deficits to GDP. In addition, the current rate of inflation must also be viewed within the context of debt in order to make an accurate assumption as to the level of future inflation.

When analyzing historical measures of these criteria, the conclusion reached is that the U.S. 10-year Note yield should rise to at least four percent in the coming quarters.

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