Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bonds Look Attractive / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
There are two trades in this market: the risk trade and the non-risk trade. The risk trade is in equities and all the other assets, like commodities, real estate and emerging markets, that have become highly correlated to equities. The non-risk trade is in bonds. This works when equities don't. With the bounce in equities sputtering (but not having rolled over yet), Treasury bonds are looking attractive.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Fed’s Next Move is to Ease U.S. Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Michael_Pento
The FOMC meets today to discuss their record-low interest rate policy. The announcement of their decision will be released on Wednesday. While no increase in interest rates is expected, there is little doubt amongst investors that the future direction for the central bank’s target rate will be up. In fact, Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig has repeatedly expressed his desire for an increase in overnight lending rates to 1 percent from the current zero-0.25 percent range by the end of summer.
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Monday, June 21, 2010
Flat U.S. Treasury Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market was flat and choppy again last week as bonds held their ground even as equities continued to rally. A little less than a month ago we reported that bonds became 2.5 standard deviations expensive to stocks. That is no longer the case as that relationship is closer to neutral now due mostly to the rally in the stock market. The fundamental news remains quite supportive, as most of the data points to non-existent inflation and a slowdown in economic activity.
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Thursday, June 17, 2010
U.S. Fights Global Debt Crisis Hangover: Getting Drunk in the Process? / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Axel_Merk
To understand how the ongoing global credit crisis may evolve, let’s look at some cultural and structural considerations. Last decade, despite being told that there may be no money to fund retirement, American consumers ramped up vast amounts of credit card debt; the European consumer, in contrast, reined in spending. Presently, European countries have recognized their debt burdens and are committed to austerity measures – contrast this with the U.S. approach: despite Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Bernanke’s warnings about unsustainable deficits, policy makers in the U.S. have proposed a $200 billion mini-stimulus package, advising the world to stimulate consumption now, with little apparent concern over future deficit implications.
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Spain's Financial System on the Verge of Collapse or Speculators Are Exaggerating Banks Vulnerability / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2010
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes: Somebody is bluffing.
Either Spain's financial system is on the verge of a breakdown, or hedge funds and speculators are exaggerating the vulnerability of Spain's banks to capitalize on short-selling Eurozone securities.
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Thursday, June 17, 2010
Vanguard 10-Yr U.S. Treasury Yield Interest Rate Forecast / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Richard_Shaw
According to Vanguard projections (made 3/29/10 for, AAII Journal, June 2010, page 7) 10-yr Treasury rates are implied by the current yield curve to be 4.4%, 5.2% and 5.6% by 1 year, 3 years and 5 years into the future. The current rate (June 15) is 3.32%.
They don't do a great job of explaining just how they got to those projections, but given their huge bond asset base, we think they should be presumed to be well qualified to make the projections.
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Wednesday, June 16, 2010
U.S. Debt Bomb Detonation Expedited by 5 Years / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Michael_Pento
A Treasury Department report to Congress last week stated that total U.S. debt will climb to $19.6 trillion by 2015, as opposed to the 2019 date previously estimated. Treasury also estimated that total U.S. debt will top 13.6 trillion this year and would rise to 102% of GDP by 2015 as well. And most astonishingly, the report projected that the publicly traded debt (debt excluding intragovernmental obligations) would rise to $14 trillion by 2015, up from last year’s debt of “just” $7.5 trillion.
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Sunday, June 13, 2010
Is There Really a Debt Crisis? / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Clif_Droke
One of the most debated topics today concerns the level of debt as it concerns consumers, corporations and governments. Government debt has commanded a particularly large share of the limelight in recent weeks. Among those who are concerned that debt levels have reached "crisis" proportions, there's seems to be a consensus that the debt balloon has reached well night the bursting point, and further, we have reached the point of no return when it comes to the servicing of the debt. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 11, 2010
In-Disposable Income and The Long Road out of Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: HRA_Advisory
The Bank of Canada just doubled its overnight lending rate, to 0.5%, and became the first G8 country to do so since the Crunch. That came after a +6% growth rate in Q1 that brings Canada’s GDP to within 0.4% of its peak valuation, and strong employment gains in April. Of course the loonie dropped nearly a cent against the US$ after the rate hike was announced.
Friday, June 11, 2010
Sovereign Contagion Spreads to UK, Britain's Debt Facade Cracking / Interest-Rates / UK Debt
By: Mike_Larson
When Greece’s markets first started cracking wide open, a lot of claptrap spewed forth from Wall Street. The general consensus:
Thursday, June 10, 2010
A Problem for the U.S. Dollar Worse than Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Q1_Publishing
$19.6 trillion.
That’s the Treasury Department’s latest estimate of the national debt to reach by 2015.
The debt has many folks concerned, and rightly so. There is, however, a much bigger problem facing the country and the U.S. dollar.
Wednesday, June 09, 2010
Misreading Economic Indicators Leads to Bad Policy / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Tim_Iacono
All this talk about how borrowing costs are so low that Washington couldn’t possibly be facing any sort of a debt crisis – that the 3.2 percent yield on the ten-year note is somehow a vote of confidence in policies coming out of the nation’s capitol – makes me think that, just as the insane fixation on a low consumer price index was a major contributor to the financial crisis, signals coming from U.S. debt markets are being similarly misinterpreted today and this may ultimately lead to an even bigger crisis in our not-too-distant future.
Wednesday, June 09, 2010
Debt Can Never Be Repaid, By Bankster Design / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Jason_Hamlin
You really have to hand it to the banksters. As was painstakingly detailed in the book Creature from Jekyll Island, the banking elite devised a brilliant plan in November of 1910 on Jekyll Island in which to take over control of the United States, steal the wealth from the taxpayers and the resources from the country.
Tuesday, June 08, 2010
Fitch UK Debt, Deficit and Ratings Warning Publicity Stunt / Interest-Rates / UK Debt
By: Nadeem_Walayat
“The scale of the United Kingdom’s fiscal challenge is formidable and warrants a strong medium-term consolidation strategy, including a faster pace of deficit reduction than set out in the April 2010 budget,” Fitch said.
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Sunday, June 06, 2010
Rating Agency BubbleOmics: Time For the Regulators to Take Away Their Ball / Interest-Rates / Market Regulation
By: Andrew_Butter
Writing in Barron’s under the title “The Credit Umpires Blew It, Too”, Randall W. Forsyth concluded:
…the leading ratings agencies aren't seen as venal, stupid or hopelessly conflicted by the way they're compensated. No, it's even worse. They're seen as irrelevant.
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Saturday, June 05, 2010
Navigating the Other Side of the Debt Storm / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Casey_Research
By Doug Hornig, Editor, Casey Research : The trillions in U.S. federal debt now exceed 85% of gross domestic product – and that’s not counting unfunded liabilities. Unemployment is breaking 20% as the government used to calculate it. The Federal Reserve is printing money like the paper it is. And the supposedly recovering housing market sees as many foreclosures in a month as new builds.
Thursday, June 03, 2010
Euro-zone Credit Crisis and China Shanghai Commodites Market Shakeout / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2010
By: Gary_Dorsch
Until mid-April, few traders knew much about the credit default swap (CDS) markets. They’re traded on an unregulated, over-the-counter market, and far from the public’s view. Yet nowadays, the CDS market has become a major battleground between high-stakes speculators and Euro-zone politicians, with the fate of the Euro currency hanging in the balance. In turn, the violent swings in the CDS markets are having a profound impact on the global bond, commodity, currency, and stock markets.
Thursday, June 03, 2010
The Central Banker’s Dilemma How To Ride A Dying Debt Saddled Elephant / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
Economics isn’t rocket science. It’s common sense and economists don’t have any.
Bankers have a problem and because they do, so do we. In modern economies, bankers have two roles. As central bankers, overseers of the financial system, they are charged with maintaining economic order. As investment bankers, i.e. opportunistic predators, they profit from whatever opportunity presents itself. In the US, the former have now succumbed to the latter.
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Tuesday, June 01, 2010
Australia Holds Rates at 4.5%; Canada is First G-7 Country to Hike / Interest-Rates / Financial Markets 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Australia may have seen its last rate hike for quite some time. Today the Reserve Bank of Australia Holds Rate at 4.5% to Gauge Market Turmoil.
Tuesday, June 01, 2010
Bond Market Takes a Breather as Yields Rise / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market took a breather last week after signs of exhaustion following a 12 point move during the past 2 months. US bonds remain in decent shape for the time being.
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