Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, June 27, 2013
BIS Warning of Bond Market Crisis on the Way! / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
From 2007 the crises have grown - Central Banks can't fix it alone!
Whether it is Bill Gross of Pimco, Marc Faber, ourselves or so very many competent analysts in the financial world, to a man, are warning of the destructive power of rising interest rates. Now in addition to all of us, we have the central banker of central bankers, the Bank of International Settlements, giving a serious warning to developed world governments that it is perhaps too late to rely on growth to rescue the global economy from deflation.
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Tuesday, June 25, 2013
Bernanke Plays Call my Bluff With Markets / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: John_Mauldin
(Wikipedia): Call My Bluff was a long-running British game show between two teams of three celebrity contestants. The point of the game is for the teams to take it in turn to provide three definitions of an obscure word, only one of which is correct. The other team then has to guess which is the correct definition, the other two being "bluffs".
Grant Williams writes: Among the first things we learn in school are the rules of grammar — the building blocks of proper communication which underpin the English language.
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Monday, June 24, 2013
How Recent Surge in Yields Compares with the Past / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short : The bond market selloff after the FOMC meeting and Chairman Bernanke’s surprising specifics about exiting QE was quite stunning. However, his hawkish position was supported by today’s release by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) of its annual report. The abstract for opening section, headed Making the most of borrowed time, begins with the following assertion:
Read full article... Read full article...Originally forged to describe central banks’ actions to prevent financial collapse, “whatever it takes” has become a rallying cry for them to continue their extraordinary policies. But we are past the height of the crisis, and the goal of policy today is to return to strong and sustainable growth.
Monday, June 24, 2013
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Panic Profitable Plays for Investors / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: DailyGainsLetter
Moe Zulfiqar writes: It’s no secret: the Federal Reserve has kept U.S. bond prices higher and yields historically low by keeping interest rates low with multiple rounds of quantitative easing.
But now things have taken a minor turn, after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes were released on June 19. “The committee currently anticipates that it will be appropriate to moderate the monthly pace of purchases later this year,” said Fed chairman Ben Bernanke. “And if the subsequent data remain broadly aligned with our current expectations for the economy, we will continue to reduce the pace of purchases in measured steps through the first half of next year, ending purchases around mid-year.” (Source: “Bernanke says Fed likely to reduce bond buying this year,” Reuters, June 19, 2013.)
Sunday, June 23, 2013
The Dark Side of the QE Circus / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Andy_Sutton
There may come a day soon where the markets sell off if one of the whiskers in Big Ben’s beard is out of place. Or perhaps if his tie is a bit crooked. Or maybe we end up with Janet Yellen as the next puppet in charge over at the local banking cabal and we fret about her hairdo. I don’t know, but one thing that is for certain is that this central bank so wants to be loved and we are so under psychological attack with all of this QE nonsense that it isn’t even funny.
Saturday, June 22, 2013
Tapering the Fed QE Taper Talk / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Peter_Schiff
As usual the Federal Reserve media reaction machine has fallen for a poorly executed head fake. It has been fooled by this move many times in the past and for its efforts it has tackled nothing but air. Yet right on cue, it took the bait once more. Somehow the takeaway from Wednesday's release of the June Fed statement and the Bernanke press conference is that the Central bank is likely to begin scaling back, or "tapering," it's $85 billion per month quantitative easing program sometime later this year, and that the program may be completely wound down by the middle of next year.
Friday, June 21, 2013
Why U.S. Interest Rates Are Rising Sharply Even Though Inflation Is Non-Existent / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: As we all know, the Federal Reserve has two mandates: keep the inflation rate low (officially, they have an optimal rate of two percent) and try to keep employment at or near maximum levels.
Because the extent of the recession has been so large and deep, in both of these measures, the Federal Reserve has not yet attained either goal. As a result, the Federal Reserve has enacted an extremely aggressive monetary policy stance.
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Friday, June 21, 2013
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Implosion Has Officially Begun / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
The QE Infinite parade officially ended yesterday when Bernanke hinted at tapering QE later this year or in mid-2014.
I first warned Private Wealth Advisory subscribers about this in mid-May writing,
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Thursday, June 20, 2013
Will Rising Interest Rates Ruin the Economic Recovery? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Clif_Droke
Sometimes words speak louder than actions. That has certainly been the case lately with the Fed hinting that it may taper off asset purchases by the end of this year. On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Bernanke said the Federal Reserve would keep monetary policy loose a while longer but hinted that the days of easing may be numbered. Bernanke said that the Fed may wind down its quantitative easing (QE) program if the economy continues to improve.
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Thursday, June 20, 2013
Detroit the Epicentre of the U.S. Death Spiral of Debt? / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: InvestmentContrarian
George Leong writes: Debt is deadly, and it’s made even worse with rising interest rates that prevent you from eliminating the debt load. What happens with rising interest rates is that payments mostly go toward the interest and less to the principal. In fact, it’s what I call a death spiral of debt that worsens as rates move higher.
When individuals face excessive debt, often the solution is to pare down on spending and adhere to a strict debt repayment program.
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Thursday, June 20, 2013
FOMC Meeting: Fed Provides No Direction to Markets on QE Tapering / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Money_Morning
Diane Alter writes: Market participants were hoping for clarity following the highly anticipated FOMC meeting Wednesday on the big question: to taper, or not to taper?
As many expected, there were no explicit statements about when the Fed would end its massive quantitative easing (QE) measures.
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Thursday, June 20, 2013
Vast $2.6+ Trillion Quantitative Easing (QE) to End? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: DK_Matai
An unprecedented monetary policy so supportive of US and global recovery has now begun to turn, as indicated recently by the Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke. The step-by-step halt and exit from this type of multi-trillion-dollar QE remains untried and untested, so we remain in totally uncharted waters in regard to unintended consequences. Is there huge market volatility next? Most probably, yes! Just watch the long term interest rates rising as there was no real sterilisation of this massive injection of money supply in trillions of dollars over the last five years on top of the $800+ billion total Federal Reserve balance sheet inherited in March 2008. [See Federal Reserve chart and note ATCA 5000 briefing: "Why The End of QE May Be Imminent? Faith, Trust and Pixie Dust"]
Thursday, June 20, 2013
Bill Gross - Bernanke is Driving in the Fog / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Bloomberg
PIMCO co-CIO Bill Gross appeared on Bloomberg TV's "Street Smart" with Trish Regan and Adam Johnson today, where he said that investors who are selling Treasuries on expectations that the Federal Reserve will scale back QE are missing the influence of inflation on the Fed's decision. He said, "The market basically has misinterpreted the growth and the unemployment targets while leaving out the inflation targets going forward…This is a combined growth, unemployment and inflation type of combination that has to be delicately managed."
Wednesday, June 19, 2013
China's Credit Crunch Signaling Stress in Global Financial System / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2013
By: Jesse
Here is some interesting data out of China. The story is by Matt Phillips.
The inter-bank liquidity crunch is a classic banking problem for which the central bank as lender and regulator was created.
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Wednesday, June 19, 2013
Grumblings of Fed’s QE Taper; What Will Happen in Wake of Today’s FOMC Meeting? / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: InvestmentContrarian
George Leong writes: The wait is over. The Federal Reserve will conclude its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting today and, of course, all of you will know what Chairman Ben Bernanke’s current thinking will be.
We have been hearing grumblings from other Federal Reserve members across the nation about how the voting members should consider tapering the Fed’s bond buying.
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Wednesday, June 19, 2013
The Only Thing Certain About Today’s Fed FOMC Meeting / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Graham_Summers
The Fed will announce its moves today at 2PM.
There’s really no telling what will happen. The markets have become truly schizophrenic. For instance, stocks continue to rally as though more QE is coming.
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Wednesday, June 19, 2013
END GAME Singularity: The System Will Be Purged through Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2013
By: Charlie_Tarango
Interest
Interest Rates represent the Balance Between Capital and Labor.
Economic History revolves around that Balance Moving from one extreme to the other.
Human Nature and Mathematics Drive those Swings. No Group or Force can Stop that. Any Machination or Manipulation, Individually or Collectively can only Elongate, Not Alter that Outcome.
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Tuesday, June 18, 2013
What the U.S. Treasury Bond Market Says About Likelihood of Fed QE Tapering / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
The big question on every investors’ lips today and tomorrow is: “will the Fed announce or hint at tapering QE?”
Over the last two years, one of the biggest tools in the Fed’s arsenal has been verbal intervention: the act of saying something in order to push the market up. Time and again 2011-2012 saw various Fed Presidents appear at key points to push the market higher by promising more action or stimulus.
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Tuesday, June 18, 2013
U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble Red Alert, QE Taper Talk Puts Bonds at Risk – Where to Hide? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Axel_Merk
Induced by “taper talk,” volatility in the bond market has been surging of late. Is there a bond bubble? Is it bursting? And if so, what are investors to do, as complacency might be financially hazardous.
Tuesday, June 18, 2013
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Sell Signal / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Brian_Bloom
On reflection, the two weekly charts below should have been included in the equity market overview that I sent out yesterday (http://www.beyondneanderthal.com/equity-market-risks-are-rising-3/ ).
A significant “sell” signal has been given on the weekly bond price chart.
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