Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, August 20, 2012
Bernanke's Dual Mandate Trap / Interest-Rates / US Economy
By: EconMatters
After reporting an uptick of national unemployment rate of 8.3%, it is of little surprise that the Labor Dept. said on Friday that jobless rates rose in 44 U.S. states in July, with many states showing a monthly increase in more than three years.
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
EU Banking Union: even the timing, 9/11, Spells Disaster / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: ECB_Watch
Even the timing of the Banking Union spells disaster. Proposal to be announced 9/11, says WSJ (Source). Discussed in this post, the ECB taking responsibility for banking supervision.
Cast: Sharon Bowles (EU Parl), Mario Draghi (ECB), Nicolas Véron (Bruegel)
Tuesday, August 14, 2012
Why The Government Is Destroying The U.S. Dollar / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Dan_Amerman
The United States government has five interrelated motivations for destroying the value of the dollar:
1. Creating money out of thin air on a massive basis is all that stands between the current state of hidden depression, and overt depression with unemployment levels in excess of those seen in the US Great Depression of the 1930s.
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Monday, August 13, 2012
Time for the "Widowmaker Trade" to Finally Pay Off? / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: DailyWealth
I GUARANTEE someone will get rich on the "Widowmaker Trade" someday...
The question is... is today the day?
Let me explain this guaranteed trade...
Thursday, August 09, 2012
Exactly What Can the ECB Do? / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Graham_Summers
The markets are continuing their short squeeze, Euro-phoria induced lunacy. As a quick reminder the S&P 500 is up nearly 5% while many European indexes have rallied double digits (Spain’s Ibex is up an unbelievable 17%!)
In light of this, we need to take a look at the facts, because much of this feels too much like 2008 (at that time the S&P 500 rallied 7%, 11%, even 18% based on various “interventions” all of which turned out to be duds)
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Thursday, August 09, 2012
Fed Money Printing Going Digital / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Fred_Sheehan
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is threatening us with "further action" if the economy does not do something or other. (He cannot remember his objective from one press conference to the next, so there is no reason anyone else should.) One view holds the chairman has done all he can, but this underestimates his options. First to follow is a summary of what he proposed in advance and what he delivered. Second, there are some options floating through central-banking channels that should not be dismissed. In conclusion, the consequence may be the end of central banking.
Wednesday, August 08, 2012
Europe Is Not a Matter of Opinion… It’s a Matter of Math / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Graham_Summers
It’s a simply question of math.
I realize my views on Europe are much in the minority. The entire world continues to believe that somehow Mario Draghi or Ben Bernanke have a magical button they can hit that will solve the EU Crisis.
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Wednesday, August 08, 2012
Fed Has Done Enough, Gas Tank is Full Says Fisher / Interest-Rates / Economic Stimulus
By: Bloomberg
Richard Fisher, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, spoke with Bloomberg TV's Tom Keene and Sara Eisen today, saying that "we're at the risk of overburdening the central banks" and "we keep applying what I call monetary Ritalin to the system. We all know there's a risk of over prescribing."
Fisher also said that "we have done our job. We have done enough. Just doing more doesn't solve the problem. The problem is engaging the transmission. We provided the gas, the gas tank is full."
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Tuesday, August 07, 2012
The Lingering Locust Clouds Of Zombie Money / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Raul_I_Meijer
For the financial markets, the situation in Europe can't get bad enough. The worse it gets, the higher the likelihood that more taxpayer funds will be pumped into the system. These funds will not achieve their ostensible goal, which is to "heal" the economies of the countries whose taxpayers are forced to pick up the tab. Those economies have been battered and indebted so badly that there's zero chance of them returning to "normal" growth and paying "normal" returns for many years to come, if ever.
Sunday, August 05, 2012
How to Prepare for the U.S. Treasury Bond Market Apocalypse / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Investment_U
Alexander Green writes: The Wall Street Journal made an interesting observation recently, “Treasury bonds are priced for the end of the world.”
It was a news article, not an opinion piece. But it happens to be the viewpoint of virtually every investor with half a brain – or a modicum of common sense. A few months ago, for instance, the world’s best-known investor, Warren Buffett, wrote in his annual letter to shareholders, “Right now bonds should come with a warning label.”
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Thursday, August 02, 2012
Super Mario Draghi's Diabolic Spiral / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Mario Draghi did a press conference today. "Everyone" was eagerly awaiting it, and nobody seemed to understand it makes no difference what he says. At least, that is, from the point of view of saving the euro, or Spain, or Italy, or the eurozone. Draghi let slip a dumb remark last week at what was essentially no more than an Olympic cocktail party, and now he's supposed to make it all come true. But he didn't say anything of substance then or now, because he doesn't have anything of substance to offer.
Thursday, August 02, 2012
Unintended Consequences of Well-Intended Policies / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Casey_Research
Dr. Lacy Hunt for Casey Research writes:In the early 1960s, when JFK was in the White House and William McChesney Martin was Fed chairman, Keynesian economics was in full bloom. One of its major tenets is the Phillips Curve, which posits a stable inverse relationship between the rate of inflation and the unemployment rate. Yale professor James Tobin and others argued that the social outcome could be improved by a more activist monetary and fiscal policy. Specifically, they contended that the unemployment rate could be lowered while only resulting in slightly higher inflation.
Thursday, August 02, 2012
Pimco Bill Gross - Draghi Disappoints with Lack of ECB Policy Moves / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates
By: Bloomberg
Bill Gross, co-CIO of PIMCO, appeared on Bloomberg TV’s “In the Loop” with Betty Liu and said that Mario Draghi disappointed investors by not offering concrete policy steps: "we were hoping for, at least temporarily, some type of specific effort on the part of the central banks."
Gross also responded to Jeremy Siegel's comments on Bloomberg TV earlier today that Gross doesn't know economics by suggesting that he "hasn't even read my piece, let alone understood it." Gross said that Siegel “belongs back in his Ivory tower.”
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Thursday, August 02, 2012
Euro-zone Quarantining PIIGS Against Catching Spanish Flu / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Gary_North
The Greek crisis was merely the warm-up act for the main show: the default of Spain and its much-denied departure from the euro.
That departure will leave holders of Spanish bonds with IOUs in euros that will be paid interest in pesetas.
These bond-holders include French banks, German banks, and assorted pension funds. The owners of those institutions will take significant hits on their net worth.
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Thursday, August 02, 2012
Audit the Out of Control Fed, Restore “Free Markets for Free People” / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Gary_Dorsch
When will the Fed’s folly and madness come to an end? Perhaps next year, we’ll begin to see big changes at the Federal Reserve, including the sacking of Fed chief Ben Bernanke, and his henchmen of addicted money printers, who have tossed aside the notion of “Moral Hazard,” a long time ago, and instead, are engaging in “financial repression” in the bond markets, and the rigging of the stock market, much to the chagrin of believers in free markets. However, in order for this shake-up at the Fed to occur, the Republican Party would have to beat the odds, by capturing the White House, and majorities in both chambers of Congress.
Thursday, August 02, 2012
U.S.Fed Fails to Offer Stimulus, But Assures Support if Necessary / Interest-Rates / Economic Stimulus
By: Asha_Bangalore
The two-day FOMC meeting concluded without any change in monetary policy. Expectations had ranged from a possible change in language to extend the exceptionally low interest rate period to 2015 from the current late 2014 stipulation to a reduction in interest on excess reserves or another round of purchases of long term assets. Hopes were not entirely dashed as the Fed expressed a strong willingness to provide monetary policy support if economic conditions weaken. The Fed’s message runs as follows:
Wednesday, August 01, 2012
Looking at the Real Math's Behind Spain's Debt Crisis / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Graham_Summers
As you know by now, I keep stating that Spain is going to be the straw that breaks the EU’s back. The country is facing a regional, banking, and soon to be sovereign crisis all at once.
Spain’s Catalonia suspends social service payments
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Monday, July 30, 2012
LIBOR, Lies and Derivatives / Interest-Rates / Banksters
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Three weeks, ago, I wrote LIBOR was a criminal conspiracy from the start. An avalanche of articles have been written on LIBOR since, and I think an update is in order, which also gives me a chance to delve a little further into the bold statement in that title.
It's not that I'm a big fan of using terms like conspiracy, not at all, but then again, neither am I a fan of constantly being lied to.
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Sunday, July 29, 2012
Opacity and Credit Default Swaps No Access for Spain Denver, Maine, and Carlsbad / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: John_Mauldin
Rick: How can you close me up? On what grounds?
Captain Renault: I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!
– From the classic scene in Casablanca, made in 1942
The latest scandal du jour seems to be about what is now called LIBORgate. But is it a scandal or is it really just business as usual? And if we don’t know which it is, what does that say about how we organize the financial world, in which $300-800 trillion, give or take, is based on LIBOR? This is actually just the second verse of the old song about derivatives, which is a much larger market. Which of course is a problem that was not solved by Dodd-Frank and that has the potential to once again create true havoc with the markets, whereas LIBOR can only cost a few billion here and there. (Sarcasm intended.)
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Friday, July 27, 2012
Uncovering the Darkest Secret of the Financial System / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Graham_Summers
As noted in yesterday’s piece concerning how and why Europe could bring about systemic risk, EU banks are likely leveraged at much, much more than 26 to 1.
Indeed, considering how leveraged and toxic US banks’ (especially the investment banks’) balance sheets became from the US housing bubble, the chart I showed you should give everyone pause when they consider the TRUE state of EU bank balance sheets.
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