Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Thursday, November 15, 2012
Facing the Fiscal Cliff Solves 77% of the Deficit Problem in One Move / Interest-Rates / US Debt
Martin Hutchinson writes: With the election over, Wall Street is now obsessing over the possibility that the "fiscal cliff" negotiations may end in stalemate.
Well I have news for them: a stalemate would be good for the U.S. economy, and any deal that does not preserve most of the fiscal cliff is not worth having.
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Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Italian Prosecutor Charges Fitch and S&P Employees With Culpable Incompetence / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2012
I noticed that the public prosecutor in some remote corner of Italy is attempting to get a clutch of hapless employees of S&P and Fitch charged with…well I‘m not quite sure what? Public disorder…incompetence…economic terrorism…driving whilst under the influence of America?Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 10, 2012
Bankrupt Greece Unlikely to Get Bailout Next Week / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
It has now been reported that for logistical reasons it is very unlikely Greece will be able to draw down on further bailout funds before the week of November 19 at the earliest, notwithstanding the approval of the Greek Parliament on Wednesday of the austerity measures proposed last Monday. This is said to result from:
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Saturday, November 10, 2012
Bond Markets Train Wreck to Benefit Gold / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
Why investors, fearful of currency depreciation, have turned to gold...
Not so long ago, everyone seemed to think Greece was about to leave the Euro.
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Thursday, November 08, 2012
The Stage Has Been Set For Another Credit Crisis / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2012
Shah Gilani writes: If you think yesterday's market action was something to worry about, you ain't seen nothing yet.
President Barack Obama getting re-elected sets the stage for another credit crisis.
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Wednesday, November 07, 2012
The ECB and Fed Are Worlds Apart / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
The contrast in approach to central banking between the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) is remarkable. ECB President Draghi has done more to lift market concerns with a targeted strategy than Bernanke's blunt attempts. In announcing the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program, Draghi not only shored up market concerns, but also forced upon European policy makers a pathway for a fiscal framework and centralized fiscal oversight. From a currency perspective, such steps may serve to bolster the euro. In contrast, Bernanke appears willing to do all the heavy lifting on the economy while gridlock remains in Washington. We fear that the unintended consequences of such accommodative policies may undermine the U.S. dollar over the foreseeable future, and ultimately pose significant risks to the U.S. economy.
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Saturday, November 03, 2012
Euro-zone Debt Crisis Deepening as Greece Runs Out of Money on November 16th / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
Nick Beams writes: The eurozone financial crisis is set to deepen following this week’s release of debt projections for the Greek economy. Budget estimates show that instead of peaking at 167 percent of gross domestic product, as predicted last March when the so-called bailout package was put in place, the debt ratio will hit 189 percent this year, rising to 192 percent in 2014—well above the worst case scenarios of just eight months ago.
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Friday, October 26, 2012
Counterfeit Economies Facing Waves of Insolvency, Bonds the Ultimate Malinvestment / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2012
The Mayan calendar points to the end of the world coming in December. It may not end on that date but major disruptions can be anticipated. CENTRAL banks have fully uncorked the printing presses to meet the waves of insolvency set to STRIKE the banksters, public servants and the elites. Transferring your wealth to themselves and their something for nothing societies to PAY for their moral and fiscal insolvencies.
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Thursday, October 25, 2012
Bankrupt Spain is Beyond Saving / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
My prediction regarding the breakup of the EU was obviously way early.
However, the fact remains that the EU will break up in time. And it will likely be Spain that brings this about.
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Thursday, October 25, 2012
Why Government Debt Is Dragging on the U.S. Economy / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By Dan Steinhart, Casey Research : The US has too much debt. This is no longer a controversial statement. Some may believe other problems are more urgent, or that we need to grow our way out rather than slash spending. But even the most spendthrift pundits acknowledge that the debt-to-GDP ratio of the US must decrease if we are to have a stable, prosperous economy.
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Thursday, October 25, 2012
Draghi's Plan to buy Sovereign Bonds Just Buying Time / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
Michael Platt, founder of BlueCrest Capital Management, told Bloomberg Television's Stephanie Ruhle on "Market Makers" today that "Europe has no credible plan for growth" and Draghi's plan to buy government bonds is a revised version of ESM and a way to buy time.
Platt also said that the euro is "interesting because it reminds me of the situation in the yen. You never would have expected the yen to be such a strong currency for the last 25 years."
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Sunday, October 21, 2012
Spain’s Back In Debt Crisis Mode… And Will Take The EU Down With It / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
Spain’s Back In Debt Crisis Mode… And Will Take The EU Down With It
As I noted previous articles, Spain has essentially three options:
1) Spain goes the “Greek route” of agreeing to austerity measures in exchange for bailouts (which will implode the economy).
2) Prime Minister Rajoy refuses to impose austerity measures and is removed/ replaced by an EU technocrat who is pro-austerity measures (like Italy experienced last year)
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Friday, October 19, 2012
Is Bernanke Losing Control? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
We all know the talk ... Bernanke has a mission to keep long term interest and mortgage rates low. And, low mortgage rates will be good for housing and the economy.
But ... is Bernanke getting into trouble relative to his ability to keep rates low?
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Friday, October 12, 2012
Age of Debt Deleveraging / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2012
The world’s major economies are struggling and their private-sector is deleveraging (paying off debt). If history is any guide, this deflationary process is likely to continue for several years.
You will recall that heading into the global financial crisis, corporations and households in the developed world were leveraged to the hilt. During the pre-crisis era, debt was considered a birth right and for decades, the private-sector leveraged its balance-sheet. Unfortunately, when the US housing market peaked and Lehman went bust, asset values plummeted but the liabilities remain unchanged. Thus, for the first time in their lives, people in the developed world experienced the wrath of excessive leverage.
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Friday, October 12, 2012
Negative Real Yields on U.S. Treasury Debt Highly Bullish for Gold / Interest-Rates / US Debt
Today's 30 year Treasury auction was described as 'soft' as the cover rates were not as robust as yesterday's ten year. Ten-year notes started the day yielding 1.679% and were recently yielding 1.684%, while 30-year bonds were up 12/32 in price to yield 2.875%.
Personally I think that buying a 30 year bond yielding under 3 percent is insanity.
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Wednesday, October 10, 2012
The Muni Bond Market Minefield / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
Municipal bonds have long been viewed as a staple asset class for conservative, income-seeking investors. "Munis," as they are known, are a large, liquid market of credit-rated securities that provide tax-exempt (from Federal taxes) income to millions of American investors. Towns, school districts, and other public sector authorities across the country have issued an estimated $3.7 trillion dollars worth of these bonds.
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Monday, October 08, 2012
How Spain Could Take Down the Entire EU Banking System / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2012
Spain was already experiencing a banking crisis as well as a sovereign crisis. It’s now on the verge of a constitutional crisis (as well as its ongoing sovereign and banking crises).
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Saturday, October 06, 2012
Spain is Beyond Repair, So is the United States / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2012
Spain is beyond repair. This is also true of the United States. Following is a bottom-up view of the insatiable parasites clinging to the rump of the Spanish economy and how such gruesome imagery applies elsewhere.
A Bloomberg story on September 27, 2012, resembled many others since the mid-'oughts: "Spain's Boom-Era Building Gear Sold as Developers Cut Off." This does not need much explanation but a connection is offered: though QE3 is designed, and will (in cases) lift asset prices, gravity rather than levitation is the natural direction of assets.
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Thursday, October 04, 2012
U.S. Fed QE Infinity, What is it All about? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
QE3, the Federal Reserve’s third round of quantitative easing, is so open-ended that it is being called QE Infinity.
Doubts about its effectiveness are surfacing even on Wall Street. The Financial Times reports:
Among the trading rooms and floors of Connecticut and Mayfair [in London], supposedly sophisticated money managers are raising big questions about QE3 — and whether, this time around, the Fed is not risking more than it can deliver.
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Wednesday, October 03, 2012
The Genesis of the LIBOR Crisis / Interest-Rates / Banksters
The roots of the LIBOR crisis can be found in the broad based sub-prime FRAUD in America circa 2000 - 2007. The sub-prime fraud involved American investment banks securitizing [bundling] poor mortgage credits into “pools” – then working hand-in-hand with credit rating agencies like S & P and Moodys – having these pooled securities rated AAA.
In Q1/2007 American investment bank - Bear Stearns, a major player in this sub-prime securitization – had a number of these sub-prime pools FAIL to perform.
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