Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, July 23, 2011
Trouble Brewing In Credit Markets / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011
By: Tony_Pallotta
Credit markets continue to signal either a weakening economy or outright recession yet equities refuse to pay attention. With daily market volume dominated by intraday traders with no concern about macro data this comes as no surprise. The danger becomes that equity markets have no ability at forecasting any longer. The Great Recession saw equities peak just two months before contraction began. We may in fact be watching the same horrific forecasting ability play out if the credit markets are accurate.
Saturday, July 23, 2011
History of Great Debt Defaults, The English Experience c.1300 / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Adrian_Ash
Money, once dear to bankrupt kings, is now at 3.5% for 30 years...
SO in 1294, English king Edward I fell out with Philip IV of France – to whom he owed loyalty by also being Duke of Aquitaine – after English pirates raided French ships and sacked the port of La Rochelle.
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Friday, July 22, 2011
There Is Life after Debt Default / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Peter_G_Klein
My father was a historian, and he helped organize local events to commemorate the bicentennials of the Declaration of Independence in 1976 and Constitution in 1987. I particularly remember the Freedom Train, a traveling exhibit housing memorabilia such as original copies of the Declaration, the Constitution, the Louisiana Purchase document, and (I learn from Wikipedia, though I don't remember these) Judy Garland's dress from The Wizard of Oz and Joe Frazier's boxing trunks.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Moody’s Solution to Debt Crisis Shows Market Irrationality / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
The bond rating agency that missed the subprime bubble, financial crisis, and is perennially late to the downgrade “party” has toughened its language with the US government. Recently, the company warned that a debt ceiling is the true problem facing the US government. Eradicating debt fights from government would be a sure way to better the United States’ global standing as a first rate borrower.
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Wednesday, July 20, 2011
What Europe Could Learn From Dubai On How To Save The Eurozone From Their Bastiat Farce / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Andrew_Butter
There is an article on Martin Wolf’s blog at the FT on “How to Save the Eurozone”, which you can read for free. It’s by Lawrence Summers; his bio says he was Treasury Secretary under Bill Clinton but says nothing about Andrei Shleifer or how he shafted Brooksley Born and helped Harvard University lose a billion.
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
U.S. Treasury Spreads Widen on Debt Concerns; Bond Market Revolt Awaits QE3 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
long-end of the treasury curve is acting sick, smack in the face of a clearly slowing global economy.
Monday, July 18, 2011
30-Year Extend-and-Pretend Debt Plan for Greece, Crash Looking More Likely / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Mike_Shedlock
Confusion reins supreme ahead of Thursday's EU summit that German Chancellor Angela Merkel thinks is "urgently necessary." However, Merkel will only attend if there is a plan that will be approved.
Is there any conceivable solution that can be worked out in 4 days? I suggest it is impossible.
Monday, July 18, 2011
The Painful Consequences of a U.S. Debt Ceiling Increase / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Money_Morning
Larry D. Spears writes:
Failure to reach a compromise on a U.S. debt ceiling increase could result in an unmitigated economic disaster - one so unprecedented government and private analysts can't even accurately pinpoint all the potential consequences.
To avert this crisis, U.S. President Barack Obama wants a debt ceiling increase of $2 trillion, which analysts say would carry the country through the end of 2012. The president has moved the deadline for reaching an agreement up to July 22.
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Saturday, July 16, 2011
Pushing U.S. Treasury Default Beyond August 2 / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
If the federal debt ceiling were not raised by August 2, there still would be temporary means for the Treasury to keep paying all of its bills for a while. The Treasury could pull an FDR and revalue its gold holdings. Currently, the Treasury is valuing its gold holdings at $42.22 an ounce. By revaluing its gold holdings near the current open-market price, say at $1,575 an ounce, the value of Treasury gold holdings would rise by $400.8 billion. The Fed could write up the Treasury's deposit account by that much and the bills could be paid for a bit longer even without an increase in the debt ceiling.
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Saturday, July 16, 2011
Pimco's Gross: U.S. Lawmakers "Don't Get" Implications of Debt Ceiling Debate / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Bloomberg
Bill Gross of Pimco spoke to Bloomberg Television's Tom Keene this afternoon about the economy, the debt debate in Washington and the European stress tests. Gross said that he doesn't expect QE3, but that he expects the Fed to reiterate language. He also said that lawmakers "don't get" the long-term implications of the debt debate and that they "need to approach it gradually" when it comes to cutting spending.
Friday, July 15, 2011
Moody's Warning Edges U.S. Credit Rating Closer to Downgrade / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes: With time running out on a deal to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, Moody's Investors Service turned up the heat by warning Washington's bickering politicians that any missed debt payments will result in a credit rating downgrade.
Such a downgrade would have economically catastrophic consequences, roiling stock markets worldwide, sharply increasing borrowing costs for the U.S. government as well as businesses, and derailing an already-anemic economic recovery.
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Friday, July 15, 2011
It Ain't Money If I Can't Print It! / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Peter_Schiff
I have been forecasting with near certainty that QE2 would not be the end of the Fed's money-printing program. My suspicions were confirmed in both the Fed minutes on Tuesday and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's semi-annual testimony to Congress yesterday. The former laid out the conditions upon which a new round of inflation would be launched, and the latter re-emphasized - in case anyone still doubted - that Mr. Bernanke has no regard for the principles of a sound currency.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 15, 2011
History of U.S. Debt Defaults / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: MISES
John S. Chamberlain writes: On July 13th, the president of the United States angrily walked out of ongoing negotiations over the raising of the debt ceiling from its legislated maximum of $14.294 trillion dollars. This prompted a new round of speculation over whether the United States might default on its financial obligations. In these circumstances, it is useful to recall the previous instances in which this has occurred and the effects of those defaults. By studying the defaults of the past, we can gain insights into what future defaults might portend.
Friday, July 15, 2011
Europe's Debt Default Crisis: It's the CDS, Stupid / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Adrian_Ash
"The constraints imposed by market forces [on government deficits inside a single-currency union] might either be too slow and weak, or too sudden and disruptive." - The Delors Committee report on European monetary union, getting it exactly right in 1989
GREEK BONDS have lost half to three-quarters of their face value. Six national strikes have all ended in violence already this year. In the three months to April, public investment spending fell 42% from the start of 2010, but total spending still rose – and tax revenues sank – forcing the budget deficit still wider as the economy shrank 5.5% year-on-year.
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Thursday, July 14, 2011
Moody's Puts U.S. AAA Credit Rating at Risk of Downgrade / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Mike_Shedlock
At long last the bond vigilantes have a spotlight on US debt. Please consider Japan Stock Futures Fall as Yen Rises as Moody’s Reviews U.S Credit Rating
Read full article... Read full article...Moody’s Investors Service put the U.S., rated Aaa since 1917, under review for a credit-rating downgrade for the first time since 1995 on concern the government’s $14.3 trillion debt limit will not be raised in time to prevent a missed payment of interest or principal on outstanding bonds and notes even though the risk remains low. The rating would likely be reduced to the Aa range and there is no assurance that Moody’s would return its top rating even if a default is quickly cured.
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Fed Tells It Like It Is... / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Jack_Steiman
And what it is isn't pretty at all. He said he's disappointed at how things are moving along and expects recent weakness to persist for a while longer than he'd like it to. When the fed makes a statement like that there's only one thing left for him to do. Be more inappropriate, of course. Keep the printing presses rolling day and night. Print those dollar bills as if they are the holy grail. He has hinted that there's a reasonable chance we will actually be seeing a QE3 program even though QE1 and QE2 did absolutely nothing for the economy other than to put it further into debt. He also talked about too big to fail meaning there will be no free markets. He will control what he needs to when he feels he wants to.
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Thursday, July 14, 2011
Bernanke Willings to Implement QE3, if Necessary / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Bernanke's testimony this morning maintains optimism about the second-half of 2011. He noted that "once temporary shocks that have been holding down economic activity pass, we expect to again see the effects of policy accommodation reflected in stronger economic activity and job creation." The Fed's projections of economic growth have been published following the June21-22 FOMC meeting. The Fed expects the economy to grow 2.7% to 2.9% on a Q4/Q4 basis in 2011 after a 1.9% increase in the first quarter and an expected gain of a little over 2.0% in the second quarter. At the same time, Bernanke's remarks were indicative of the Fed's willingness to provide additional monetary policy support to the economy, if necessary:
Thursday, July 14, 2011
The Debt Ceiling Reality Show Must Go On / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: James_Quinn
The Debt Ceiling Reality Show is winding down to its dramatic conclusion on August 2. I think Fox should capitalize on the drama by gathering the American Idol judges to vote on the best performance by a political hack. We can have Ryan Seacrest announce on August 1 at 11:55 pm that the winner is – THE WALL STREET MONIED INTERESTS.
Thursday, July 14, 2011
United States on the Road to Perdition / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: David_Galland
David Galland interviews Terry Coxon, The Casey Report : Terry Coxon worked side by side with best-selling author Harry Browne for years and is a rare expert in the arcane study of monetary systems. His remarks at this juncture in time, a time that might end up labeled in the history books as “Money Runs Wild,” are especially germane.
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Bernanke - Money for Nothing and Dollars For Free / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Axel_Merk
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Bernanke, in a verbal duel with Representative Ron Paul, provided insult to injury to hard money appreciating investors. When asked whether gold should be considered money, Bernanke replied: “no”; when further quizzed why central banks then hold gold reserves, Bernanke brushed the question off, suggesting gold is simply held because of tradition.
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