Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, March 03, 2010
Bernanke on a Bailout of the U.S. Treasury / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_North
On February 10, Ben Bernanke testified to the House Financial Services Committee. The topic: "Federal Reserve's exit strategy." His printed testimony contained the familiar promises. The Federal Reserve System will unwind when the economy recovers. Speaking of the TAF and TALF programs, he said:
Tuesday, March 02, 2010
An Attempt to Think Through the Greek Debt Crisis / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
Today I am sitting listening to Ralph Merkle lecture on nanotechnology, part of a 9-day-long series of lectures on how accelerating change in technologies of all types will affect our world. 15-hour days and intense discussions are stretching my brain, but I still have to make sure you get your Outside the Box. Fortunately, I came across today's OTB last week from my friends at GaveKal, who offer a way to think about the Greek crisis and what it means for all European bonds.
Monday, March 01, 2010
The Real Cause of Hyperinflation / Interest-Rates / HyperInflation
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
In his weekly letter, John Mauldin concluded that we have not experienced hyperinflation (despite massive Fed “printing”) due to the fact that the money multiplier has fallen and fallen below 1.0. This means that for each additional $1 added to the monetary base, the money supply is changing by less than $1. In other words, banks are not lending and so the velocity of money is declining.
Sunday, February 28, 2010
Bernanke Says U.S. Heading for Greece Style Debt Crisis / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Washingtons_Blog
Bernanke is now joining Rosenberg, Ferguson and Faber, Edwards, Grice and many others in warning that the debt crisis rearing its head in Greece may spread to America, causing U.S. interest rates to climb.
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Friday, February 26, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Auctions Results This Week / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Fresbee
We hereby summarise the bond auctions this week which held another record breaking amount as nearly 150 billion were auctioned between 3 months to 7 year duration. The overall Bid/cover has been very healthy at 2.9 and even with Chinese spat going on, Indirect bidders have been significant with their presence albeit at a lower level of participation.
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Bond Vigilantes set Sights on Sovereign Debt / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Gary_Dorsch
The collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered one of the biggest corporate debt defaults in history, and also ignited the biggest stock market meltdown in decades. When the smoke had finally cleared, Lehman’s bonds attracted bids of 8-cents on the dollar, resulting in staggering losses of $365-billion. Worse yet, about 350 banks and investors were thought to have insured $400-billion of Lehman’s bonds through complex derivatives, known as credit default swaps (CDS’s), causing even deeper losses and mayhem in the markets. A fifth was wiped off London Footsie shares, and in Tokyo, the Nikkei-225 index lost 10% of its value in a single week.
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Sultans of Swap - Explaining $605 Trillion of Derivatives! / Interest-Rates / Derivatives
By: Gordon_T_Long
(The Bond Vigilantes are dead - RIP - Long Live the Sultans of Swap)
Every parent has had that moment when their child asks them the simplest sounding question but in that instance before you respond, you realize you have never really thought about it and actually don"t know the real truth. To not have an answer would be to lose all credibility as the "all knowing" parent. Like generations of parents before you - you bluff!
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Wednesday, February 24, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bonds, The Correct Play Is To Be Long / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
Over the past many months, I have spent much time on this blog writing about US Treasury bonds. Treasury bonds have become a tale of two diverse stories, and both stories have the potential to be secular or generational in nature.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
How the Fed Lost Control of Monetary Policy / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
While investors contemplate the recent increase in the Federal Funds rate, astute investors realize this arbitrary figure means nothing in regards to fighting inflation or decreasing the money supply. Although the Federal Funds rate may have made an impact in 2008, its impact on the market was lost after the Fed expanded the balance sheet to buy illiquid assets in late 2008 through 2009.
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Tuesday, February 23, 2010
The Most Important Chart in the World Right Now / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: DailyWealth
To most people, any talk of the U.S. government debt simply doesn't mean anything.
For instance, I could tell you the annual funding costs of our national debt are approaching $4 trillion per year – that's $1.5 trillion in new annual deficits, plus $2 trillion-$3 trillion a year in short-term obligations coming due that need to be refinanced. Foreigners hold roughly half of this debt. Thus, we have about $2 trillion in foreign debt that must be repaid or refinanced each year.
Monday, February 22, 2010
U.S. Government Debt Crisis is Financial Armageddon / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Martin_D_Weiss
If you thought Wall Street’s debt crisis was traumatic, wait till you the see the consequences of Washington’s debt crisis!
Never before in history has a world power like the U.S. been so utterly buried in debt! And never before has that debt been financed so massively by foreign investors!
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Monday, February 22, 2010
U.S. Federal Reserve Raises Discount Rate, What is the Economic Significance? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Barry_Grey
In a move that took the financial markets by surprise, the US Federal Reserve Board on Thursday announced that, effective Friday, it was raising its discount rate by a quarter point, from 0.50 percent to 0.75 percent.
Monday, February 22, 2010
Interest Rate Yield Curve Steepest In History, Is it Different This Time? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mike_Shedlock
Curve Watchers Anonymous is once again taking a look at the yield curve looking for economic clues. Here are a few charts to consider.
Friday, February 19, 2010
U.S. Treasury Debt Auctions Bombing, China Heading for the Hills … Higher Interest Rates Dead Ahead! / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mike_Larson
You can’t count on Washington to proactively warn you about major economic and market problems …
Politicians and Fed policymakers failed to warn investors away from tech stocks during the Nasdaq bubble.
They failed to warn you in advance that the housing and mortgage markets would crash.
Friday, February 19, 2010
Fed Raises Discount Interest Rate, Dollar Soars, Equity Futures Sink, What's It Really Mean? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Fed has been talking about its "exit strategy" for quite some time. Few believed he would pull the trigger on anything soon. Yet, Bernanke, unexpectedly raised the discount rate headed into options expiration.
Friday, February 19, 2010
Is all this Fed Central Bank Exit Strategy Talk Warranted? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Tim_Iacono
Boy, for a group of policymakers at the nation's central bank who, in a best case scenario, are going to just sit on their hands for at least the rest of the year, there sure has been a lot of talk about an "exit strategy".
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Are US Treasury Bonds About to Rally or Implode? Part2 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
Back in October I wrote a piece, Are US Treasuries About to Rally or Implode? At that time, I noted that the chart for long-term US debt was forming what could have either been a challenge to long-term support, or a potential head and shoulders pattern.
The main idea was that the market was about to tell us whether or not investors considered US Treasuries a safe-haven anymore. If they did, long-term debt would rally. If they didn’t the potential head and shoulders pattern would be confirmed by a break below the “neckline” which would trigger a major sell-off.
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Wednesday, February 17, 2010
The Municipal Bond Crisis Is About to Begin / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2010
By: Graham_Summers
Thus ends one more safehaven.
For decades municipal bonds have been considered one of the safest income plays on the planet. If you’re unfamiliar with these investments, municipal bonds or muni bonds as they’re commonly called, are bonds issued by lower tier governments (state, city, or even county) to raise capital for public projects like building a highway, sewer, or what have you.
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Wednesday, February 17, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bonds TLT and IEF Update / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
One month ago, I looked at US Treasury bonds, and I was a bit more constructive than I had been in the prior 12 months. Technically, it had appeared that TLT and IEF had made reversals. So what has happened?
Absolutely nothing! Bonds have yet to get off their back and move higher. On the other hand, they have not moved lower. Do I get any points for that?
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Wednesday, February 17, 2010
The End of Low Interest Rates Is Near / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Francois_Soto
Long Term Interest Rates To Double By 2020
We believe 10-Year U.S. Treasuries Government Yield is going to double over the next decade to eventually reach 10% by 2020. This prediction seems quite nonsensical as interest rates are hovering at their lowest level but secular financial environment changes occur most of the time when market participants are expecting it the least... And this might just be the case with long term interest rates!