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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Saturday, July 07, 2007

Where is the Real Risk in the Subprime Debacle? / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch

By: John_Mauldin

In this issue:
Honey, I Bet the Farm
Five Cents on the Dollar
Not Your Mother's AAA
Five Cents on the Dollar
Credit Default Swaps? Who Is the Counter-Party?
So, Where's the Problem?
La Jolla, London, and Denmark

This week we continue to look at an alphabet soup of problems: RMBSs, CDOs, Alt-A, BBB and - a new acronym to put on your radar screen - the very useful CDS. When does an AAA rating not mean an offering is ready for prime time? What type of contagion are we seeing from the Bear Stearns blow-up? I survey my friends in the hedge funds space, trying to find some evidence of cracks in the foundation, and let you know what I hear. We will again look at a wide variety of items and see if we can discern some connections.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 05, 2007

Garbage Bonds and Bonfires / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

HOLIDAY

In keeping with the Independence Day holiday, a preface is offered. The irony is stiff as a board, as thick as a fog, as ugly as a pig. Citizens in the Untied States have never seen such a broad, deep, palpable threat to their liberty, this time from within, in terms of the system and its leadership. Dependence, the opposite of the celebrated theme, is running strong. The corporate agenda takes a one-day holiday. Refer to waging war, deceiving the masses, selling out the Middle Class, undermining the institutions, and rendering any threat to systemic reform as anti-business or unpatriotic.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 04, 2007

UK Interest Rates To Rise to 5.75 percent as a Consequence of Excessive Expansion of Money Supply / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Bank of England is expected to raise UK interest rates tomorrow from 5.50% to 5.75%. This is inline with the Market Oracle two year forecast for UK interest rates to hit 5.75% by Sept 07.

The Money Markets are pricing in a rise in UK interest rates, with the Pound hitting a new 26 year high against the US Dollar trading towards $2.02, and the 3 month Inter bank rate rallying to a near 6 year high of 5.96%.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 29, 2007

Absolute Bond Contagion to Hit Financial Markets / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

When the contagion (denied no longer) is systemic, pervasive, broad, multi-faceted, and ominous in its lethal potential, perhaps one can calmly conclude that the system is merely adjusting to a total change in the seas. NO WAY !!! Without much doubt whatsoever, Bear Stearns is GROUND ZERO for the bond market firestorm.

BS was forced to extend $3.2 billion in loans to its hedge fund clients, who attempted to liquidate but could not. That represents 25% of the BS entire capital. Don't worry. Both hedge funds will eventually die, but when they do, BS will possibly die with them. A few months time is all they bought. Call it a STAY OF EXECUTION in legal parlance.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 25, 2007

Will The US Bond Market Break The Camel's Back? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Clif_Droke

“Bond shockwaves to ripple through U.S.” was the big, bold headline that greeted readers of the Financial Times newspaper following the recent bond sell-off and corresponding rise in yields. “A sell-off in the financial markets this week could have serious implications for the whole economy, says Krishna Guha.” Pretty dramatic stuff to say the least. But that's to be expected as the news media uses the latest financial “crisis of the week” to scare the average investor into believing financial collapse is imminent.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 22, 2007

Ain’t No Yield High Enough / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Peter_Schiff

Now that yields on ten-year Treasuries have cracked through 5%, on their way to infinity and beyond, many on Wall Street are wondering how high rates must go before bonds begin to draw investors away from stocks. 

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 21, 2007

Rising US Bond Yields - The Big Picture / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Marty_Chenard

We have had a lot of inquiries about rising bond yields because they have been making the market jittery. So this morning we will do an in depth look at the 30 year bond yields to show you what significant event has happened and what the current situation looks like.

Chart 1: First, let's look at the big picture on bond yields from 1999 to June 2007.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 21, 2007

Bond Convexity From Mortgages Means Higher Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The cancer that is mortgage bonds does not linger in isolation. Everything in the bond world is connected to almost everything in the bond world, at least within the US sphere of speculative madness. The financial credit market is a confusing jumble of speculation, risk reducing hedges, and leveraged insanity found mainly in the hedge fund arena. Mortgages are causing problems from their bond hedge schemes, both on the loan portfolio side and the bond security side. Always one should consider both, and never are they inseparable. The only separable aspect is who the loser is nowadays.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Interest Rate Rises - Damned If You Do... / Interest-Rates / Money Supply

By: Adrian_Ash

"...The central bank in New Zealand now presents the absurd spectacle of raising its lending rates while trying to depress its own currency by selling it in the open market..."

IF YOU WORRY that the US Fed might be caught between a rock and a hard place – squeezed between inflation on one side and plunging house prices on the other – then pity the poor central bankers in London and Auckland .

Every time they raise their interest rates, house prices increase!

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Effect of Rising Interest Rates on World Financial Markets, Currencies and Gold / Interest-Rates / Financial Markets

By: Christopher_Laird

In this article, we discuss what rising interest rates will do to world financial markets, currencies, commodities, and gold.

Leveraged markets do not like rising interest rates

With rising interest rates, financial markets are in the beginning of a major trend change. I like to call it a major sea change. For the last 5 years (further back actually considering Japan) world interest rates have been way below historical averages. During this time, unprecedented leverage has found its way into asset and financial markets such as stocks.

Historical average interest rates run about 6%, going centuries back.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 18, 2007

Super Heroes of Central Bank Policy / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System

By: Adrian_Ash

"Is it a bird, is it a plane...or is it a central banker wearing his underpants over his trousers...?"

JUST HOW POWERFUL are the world's central bankers? As comic-book super heroes go, these mild-mannered scholars would no doubt confess that they look a bit weedy.

The massed talents of the Federal Reserve or Bank of England, for instance, hardly ever leap over tall buildings in a single bound. Ben Bernanke and Mervyn King don't own a flowing cape between them, not judging by the multi-year wait for long-dated bond yields to catch up with their gently rising overnight base rates.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 16, 2007

Interest Rates and Global Growth / Interest-Rates / Inflation

By: Hans_Wagner

If investors want to beat the market, they need to understand how global growth is affecting interest rates and inflation. Bill Gross of Pimco Bonds, the world's largest bond management firm, stated in his most recent investment outlook that “With the possibility of creeping inflationary tendencies, especially in weak currency countries including the U.S., combined with the potential reduction of financial flow subsidies which to this point have favored fixed income vs. equity and real commodity investments, we come to the following range forecasts for the secular timeframe from 2007 to 2011.”

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 15, 2007

Long-term Bond Yield Mega Trend - A Unique Era / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Aden_Forecast

The gold market has been under pressure lately and some investors are feeling a little nervous. But the major trend is clearly up. That being the case, let's stand back and look at the facts...

Gold has been rising for over six years and it's gained 158% since then. That works out to 26% per annum, which has consistently been better than most other markets. The recent weakness is a bump in the road and it's not unusual. We continue to believe that gold will likely rise for years to come, eventually reaching at least $2000 and it'll probably go even higher.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 15, 2007

WIll China Keep Throwing Good Money After Bad? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Peter_Schiff

At a commercial real estate conference earlier this week, Alan Greenspan downplayed concerns that the Chinese might sell their significant holdings of U.S. Treasuries. The former Fed chairman based his opinion not on the inherent investment merits of Treasuries, but rather on their lack of them. His confidence stems simply from his belief that the Chinese have no one to whom they can sell. Furthermore, Greenspan sees this as a problem for the Chinese and not the U.S.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 15, 2007

When will this Bond Market Rout End? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_and_Markets

Mike Larson writes : If bond traders thought the worst was over last week, they had another thing coming to 'em. Long Bond futures prices fell Monday … dropped sharply Tuesday … bounced Wednesday … then slumped again yesterday. All told, Treasuries lost value in seven out of the past eight days.

Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury Note yields have soared! They're up more than three-quarters of a percentage point from their December low. In fact, 10-year yields briefly touched 5.30% this week, the highest level in five years.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 14, 2007

US Bond Market Upheaval and Confusion / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

In late March, an article pointed out the massive powerful cross currents in the USTreasury bond world. We are seeing the forces described finally at work. The aftermath has generated more questions than answers. In “Cross Currents for USTBonds” (click here ), several bullish factors were cited for bonds, but also several bearish factors were cited also. This will be a short review of relevant points, since the Vancouver Gold Show is this weekend.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 14, 2007

Higher Interest Rates Reflect Default Risk as Credit Boom comes to an End / Interest-Rates / Liquidity Bubble

By: Paul_Lamont

From our last report on the Panic of 1837, titled ‘ May 10th Credit Collapse ':

“In late 1836, the Bank of England concerned with inflation raised interest rates. As rates rose in England, credit tightened, and U.S. asset prices began to fall. On May 10 th , investors panicked and scrambled for cash.”

The markets are now tightening credit with higher interest rates. The 10 year Treasury Bond has recently confirmed its break out of the 1982-2006 trend channel.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 14, 2007

The Global Bond Bear Market on the Back of the Inflationary Boom Ahead / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System

By: Ty_Andros

  • First Stage in motion, with small signs of wake up!
  • Ethanol Blow Back

CRACK-UP BOOM, part II
In this edition of the “Crack-up Boom” series, we will begin to discuss more in depth how the CRACK-UP BOOM is principally dollar-based now and we will show its fingerprints in US-based money flows, both into and out of the United States, as investors begin to take the actions necessary to protect themselves from the ensuing tsunami of inflation which can be expected.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 14, 2007

Debt Bubble - Feeling Normal Yet? / Interest-Rates / Liquidity Bubble

By: Adrian_Ash

"Might this bubble in debt really have grown so enormous that somehow it can end – as no bubble before it – without bursting...?"

"TOO MANY PEOPLE think risk is dead, that they can't lose money anymore," said Tom Metzold, manager of the Eaton Vance Municipals Fund, at the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit in New York earlier this week.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 14, 2007

US Interest Rates and Inflation - Until is Now: How Fear becomes Risk / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Paul_Petillo

How high can the markets go I asked last week, running the risk that as soon as a signed that article, it was almost guaranteeing that the markets would fall. How precipitously was unknown. The risk that everyone knew was built into the markets months ago became fear seemingly overnight.

The bond markets, acting as the canary in the coal mine have begun to choke on its own ambivalence. Regarded as the barometer of economic strength and weakness, fixed income has remained somewhat benign as the Dow set records almost daily.

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