Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, June 28, 2019
Is the Market Sending a Crisis Era Signal on the Economy and Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
As the stock market continues to trend higher and Treasury yields continue to collapse, two groups of stocks are about to send crisis-era signals on the economy (according to Bloomberg). Today’s headlines:
- Crisis era signals
- Stocks continue to rally and Treasury yields continue to fall
- Citigroup Economic Surprise Index still deep in negative territory
- Gold’s sentiment extreme and volume
- Bonds sentiment extreme
Wednesday, June 26, 2019
Stocks and XAU Gold Miners Next Bull and Bear Markets are Now Set Up / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Sharing market analysis and my opinions every day is far from easy and sometimes I feel like a song on repeat. My focus and goal has always been to try to alert fellow traders and investors of what is unfolding now in the financial markets around the globe because it appears we are about to experience another financial life-changing event much like the 2000 stock market top, and the late 2007 bull market top which will play out over the next 24+ months
If you lost money during the last bear market then you need a new game plan to take advantage of falling prices and the solution is not just to by gold, silver, and miners. In fact, you could lose a lot buying and holding them over the next year if you are not careful. We all know what the precious metals sector did during the last equities bear market (they crashed 64% with the stock market before starting to rally).
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Tuesday, June 25, 2019
Is the Stock Market About to Drop? This Chart Says “YES” / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
Sometimes it’s good to take a big picture look at the stock market.
By “big picture” I mean a monthly chart that is at least three years long.
Here’s one that caught my eye over the weekend.
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Tuesday, June 25, 2019
Stock Market Bulls In Control, but Don't Get Complacent / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Ricky_Wen
The third week of June went according to the game plan as the market’s price action just followed the white line projections as we demonstrated in real-time.
If you recall, we got the eventual breakout above 2911 on the Emini S&P 500 (ES) that pumped into the all time highs target. The bulls fulfilled their goal by the end of the week with the high print close of the week’s range and bears are still considered dead. Who knew?
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Monday, June 24, 2019
Stock Market New High, but…! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – The intermediate-term correction continues to unfold.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, June 24, 2019
Formula for when the Great Stock Market Rally Ends / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: readtheticker
When valuations for the boring water company or the boring electric company is trading like your Facebook, Apple, Amazon or Netflix or Google (ie FANG) you know something is wrong.
This is when a seriously over valued market is screaming at you.
Of course the reader must understand in a world where money printing goes super nuts (Zimbabwe style) the stock market may go hyper inflationary and picking a time frame for a top is never a good idea, but we are not there yet. There is no Ben Bernanke helicopter money to the masses yet (ie MMT).
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Sunday, June 23, 2019
Financial Sector Paints A Clear Picture For Stock Market Trading Profits / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
After the incredible week we’ve seen, with the Fed leaving rates unchanged and precious metals rocketing higher above their previous five-year highs, it’s time we pay attention to what’s happening in the financial sector and the US stock market majors. Closing out this week, we heard all traders and investors pay very close attention to the US dollar, precious metals, and the US major indexes.
There are a number of major factors taking place throughout the world that will likely drive future price trends over the next 30 to 60 days. Tensions in the Middle East, debt issues in China and Europe, central bank actions throughout the world and the US, and the ultimate driver of price moves – fear and greed. We’ve mentioned to a number of associates recently that our research focuses on the transition of traders from fear into greed. Our belief is that as traders begin to fear certain events or price trends, the price action tends to become more volatile. As this volatility increases and trends accelerate, traders transition this fear into greed where they attempt to take advantage of opportunities generated by large price swings.
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Saturday, June 22, 2019
How Do Stock Prices React to Fed Interest Rate Cuts? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Dimitri_Speck
The “Greatest Economy in History” Stumbles
“This is the greatest economy in the history of our country”, Donald Trump opined just a few months ago.
Alas, recently there is growing evidence of an economic slowdown.
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Friday, June 21, 2019
Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged – Gold & Stocks Rally/Dollar Falls / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We believe the US stock market is nearing upper resistance. We still believe the US stock market will eventually attempt to move about the psychological levels of 3000 for the S&P, 30,000 for the Dow and 340 SPY. This move to new all-time highs will likely result in a ”scouting party” type of price pattern where price attempts to identify new resistance, slightly above the psychological levels, then reverses back below these levels to retest support.
Our continued belief that a large pennant/flag formation is unfolding has not changed. As technical analysts, we need to wait for the new price peak form before we can identify where the upper channel of the pennant/flag formation is trending. We would urge traders to be conscious that any outside move in the stock markets as a very limited upside potential from current levels. The SPY is trading at 293 and we believe upper resistance will be found slightly above 300. Thus, we really have about a $7 or $8 move to the upside from current levels – only about 3% to 4% more room to the upside.
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Thursday, June 20, 2019
Small Cap Stocks May Lead A Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We believe a unique Pennant/Flag formation is setting up in the US stock markets. We believe the Small Cap sector may provide a better technical reference to the price breakout we are expecting in late August or early September than the mid or large-cap sectors. The charts tell a very interesting story when comparing the different sectors to the SPY.
As most of you are well aware, the very deep selloff between October and December 2018 prompted a low price pivot point that most technical analysts are using as a reference to support. What we find interesting is that these Small Caps have really failed to mount any type of price recovery. We believe this is because of the continued capital shift where foreign investors and institutional investors are piling into mid-cap and large-cap equities chasing dividends and safety. The small-cap index chart may provide the best technical reference for the pennant formation and eventual breakout move.
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Thursday, June 20, 2019
Stock Market Final Blow Off Top Just Hit… Next Week Comes the FIREWORKS / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
Well, that’s that.
The markets surged on the Fed announcement of NO rate cuts because the market now believes the Fed is GUARANTEED to make a MASSIVE cut in July.
The S&P 500 (blue line in the chart below) hit our upside target for this rally, catching up the breadth (black line in the chart below). We might finish the week around here, but going forward anyone going long is effectively “picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.”
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Wednesday, June 19, 2019
Is the Stock Market’s Volatility About to Spike? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
By some measures, the stock market’s volatility is starting to go up with the stock market itself. Does this mean that a short term spike in volatility (and short term decline in stocks) is impending? Today’s headlines:
- VIX and stocks
- Volatility of volatility
- Small caps indecision
- Fed day
- Oil’s plunge last week
- Gold miners are on fire
Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day.
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Wednesday, June 19, 2019
Fed May Trigger Wild Swing In Stock Index and Precious Metals / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As our research team continues to pour over the charts and look for any signs of direction regarding tomorrow’s Fed news, we put together a couple the charts that may highlight some expectations and in at what the markets may do the rest of the week.
The expectations that the US Federal Reserve may maintain rates at current levels or potentially drop rates by a quarter percent leaves an open interpretation as to how the global markets will digest this news. Obviously, leaving rates unchanged would be the most benign action the Fed could take. Often though, the markets interpret this as a sign of weakness. Whereas a quarter percent decrease in the US fed rates would suggest that the Fed is preparing for future economic weakness in the US and potential global economy, yet investors may consider this as a very bullish reaction to the Fed.
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Tuesday, June 18, 2019
The Stock Market Has Gone Nowhere and Volume is Low. What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market has been trading within a very small range since last week, and volume has been notably low. Today’s headlines:
- Stock market’s small range
- Stock market’s low volume
- High stock:bond ratio
- The S&P’s long term correlations
- “A key manufacturing gauge just saw its biggest one month collapse in 18 years”
- Banks underperforming
Tuesday, June 18, 2019
Investors are Confident, Bullish and Buying Stocks, but… / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The Technical Traders Ltd has identified a unique price to volatility relationship between the SP500 and VIX index. The calculations required to compute the VIX index are composed of a number of factors. That final value of the VIX index is reported on an annualized basis. This means that VIX index as already internalized the past 12 months price volatility into the current VIX levels.
We believe this increased VIX volatility expectation could be muting future VIX spikes and trading systems focus on the VIX Index. The fact that the VIX as likely to internalized that large October to December 2018 price rotation and will not move beyond this price range until well after April or May of 2020 creates a unique problem for VIX systems and analysts. In short, the VIX has normalized a 20% price volatility expectation, or more, and will not reduce this expectation until well after April or May of 2020.
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Monday, June 17, 2019
S&P 500 Stuck at 2,900, Still No Clear Direction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks continued to fluctuate on Friday, as investors awaited this week’s Wednesday’s Fed Rate Decision release. The S&P 500 index reached the new local high on Tuesday and then it came back below the 2,900 mark. So was it a downward reversal or just correction before another leg up?
The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.1-0.5% on Friday, as they extended their short-term consolidation. The S&P 500 index gained more than 180 points from its previous week’s Monday’s local low recently. It is currently 2.3% below its May the 1st record high of 2,954.13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.5% on Friday.
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Monday, June 17, 2019
Stock Market Rally Faltering? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – The intermediate-term correction continues to unfold.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, June 17, 2019
Nasdaq Stock Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
On this day, celebrating fathers and all they do for families and their children, we thought we would share some really interesting research regarding the next six months trading expectations in the NASDAQ and what it means for your trading account. One element of our research involves data mining and searching for historical price correlation models. These types of elements help us identify when the price is acting normally or abnormally.
We like to focus on the NQ (NASDAQ) because its tech-heavy and is where a lot of the Capital Shift (money from other countries is flowing into as a safe/best asset class at this time).
Below, We are going to Geek-Out a little and sharing raw data values from one of our data mining utilities highlighting each month’s historical activity in the NQ.
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Monday, June 17, 2019
Stock Market Outlook: is the S&P today just like 2007 or 2016? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
Bears are saying “the S&P today looks just like 2007” while bulls are saying “the S&P today looks just like 2016”. In reality, the S&P today is most like 1967 (not quite what you would expect).
Various technical factors suggest that the medium term is bullish.
The short term is mixed, and such a politically-driven market environment certainly does not add to one’s confidence about making short term predictions. Focus on the data and facts. Don’t trade the news.
- Fundamentals (long term): no significant U.S. macro deterioration, but the long term risk:reward doesn’t favor bulls.
- Technicals (medium term): mostly bullish
- Technicals (short term): mixed
Thursday, June 13, 2019
US Stock Market Setting Up A Pennant Formation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we’ve been warning over the past few weeks and months, the current price rotation in the US stock market is very much related to the strength of the US Dollar and the continued Capital Shift that is taking place as trade issues and currency valuations drive investors into the US equity and debt markets as protection against risk. We talk about some of these new Super-Cycles starting and how we can take advantage of them in this new guide.
The US Dollar stalled today after a recent price decline from just above $98 to a current level near $96.60. Over the past 15+ months, the US Dollar has risen from lows near $88 to highs near $98 – an 11.2% price rally. Meanwhile, many other foreign currencies have collapsed over this same span of time.
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