Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, January 03, 2024
Prepare for a Stock Market melt-up in 2024? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Stephen_McBride
I’m a proud papa this morning.
I attended my daughter’s school nativity play yesterday. We practiced her lines together for the past few weeks and it was great to see her hard work pay off on stage.
All the kids aced it.
As an aside, the quality of parents is far higher these days. It’s probably because couples aren’t churning out 10 kids each anymore, so they put more effort into nurturing each one.
One of the many reasons I’m optimistic about the future.
Kids rock!
Wednesday, January 03, 2024
Where Can You Find Maximum Growth for Your Investments in 2024? / Stock-Markets / Investing 2024
By: Mark_Adan
If we could all predict the way our investments will perform over the course of a year, I am pretty sure we would all be very wealthy by now. Unfortunately, we can’t, so instead, we rely on advice from blogs, fund managers, financial commentators, and analysts. And, for those of us who are a little more well versed in investing, we study the markets to give us the information to help us make what we believe to be an informed decision.
2023 though has been a year where the world has encountered such turmoil that it has been hard for many to have a firm grasp on where their money should be and where it could work at its best.
Monday, January 01, 2024
S&P Stock Market Analysis, Detailed Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
HAPPY NEW YEAR 2024!
Monday, December 25, 2023
Stock Market S&P Santa Rally to the MOON! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ho Ho Ho , Merry Christmas, have you all been good boys and girls during 2023? What do you want Santa to bring you for Christmas? Pop S&P 4800+ down your chimney? New all time highs in a number of AI tech stocks to celebrate Christmas morning.... Your family will wonder why this year you are so much more full of christmas spirit!
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Friday, December 22, 2023
Fed Delivers Christmas Champagne to Wall Street / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: MoneyMetals
By Thomas L. Hogan, Money Metals Exchange : It's Christmas on Wall Street as the long-awaited pivot is here, with Jerome Powell last week announcing the Fed's giving up on inflation and turning to that long-promised recession.
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Friday, December 22, 2023
Are Stocks Turning Bearish? Opportunities in Consolidation / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks sold off yesterday, but maintaining a bullish bias is still justified, and the market may have another opportunity to reach new highs. However, it’s crucial to pay close attention to the trading action, as there could be more uncertainty and volatility ahead.The S&P 500 index lost 1.47% on Wednesday, as it retraced its recent run-up following a quick profit-taking action in the middle of the day. The index reached new local high of 4,778.01 before going down to 4,700 level. The market was even closer to its Jan. 4 of 2022 all-time high level at 4,818.62 yesterday. Recently it was extending the uptrend following last week’s release of the FOMC Statement release on Wednesday, which marked a pivot in the Fed’s monetary policy. In early December the S&P 500 broke above the late July local high of around 4,607 after resuming a rally from the local low of 4,103.78 on October 27.
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Friday, December 22, 2023
Stocks – Is Being Bullish Still Justified? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Paul_Rejczak
The S&P 500 index gained 0.59% on Tuesday, further extending the uptrend following last week’s release of the FOMC Statement release on Wednesday, which marked a pivot in the Fed’s monetary policy. The market went even closer to its Jan. 4 of 2022 all-time high level at 4,818.62 yesterday. Recently the S&P 500 broke above the late July local high of around 4,607 after resuming a rally from the local low of 4,103.78 on October 27.Stocks will likely open 0.2% lower today, so the S&P 500 index may trade sideways, but there’s still potential for it to reach the mentioned record high level, which was only 1.05% above yesterday’s closing price. The S&P 500 index continues to trade along its steep upward trend line as we can see on the daily chart:
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Tuesday, November 28, 2023
Stock Market Santa Rally to S&P 4600+ / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day! You got access to my latest stock market brief that are usually only exclusively made available to patrons.
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Tuesday, November 28, 2023
Can A Stock Market Crash Be Averted... For Now? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Avi_Gilburt
It has certainly been an interesting year or so since we struck the low in October of 2022. If you remember, most were looking for the market to head considerably lower at the time. But, then again, what else is new? Most expect the market to continue linearly in whatever trend is in place at any point in time.
Yet, we were strongly suggesting that most investors begin to look upward, as we maintained that the market would rally to the 4300+ region from the 3500 region lows we expected before we bottomed. In fact, I was even outlining to members that the potential was in place to rally as high as 4505SPX off the 3500SPX region, even before we bottomed. And, amazingly, the market even exceeded my expectations by 100 points.
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Tuesday, November 28, 2023
The Stock Market Trend and the Policy Behind it / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Gary_Tanashian
An excerpt from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 785 on the state of the US stock market bubble as developed and sustained by another bubble (in policy-making)
NFTRH 785 started off with a lot of opinions (based on facts and indicators) before settling in to a more normal report covering key markets as usual. Meanwhile, the opening segment is more an unvarnished screed than actual market analysis, which is NFTRH’s normal mode and which we do reliably each week.
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Thursday, November 23, 2023
Stock Market Ignoring Hawkish Fed / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 entered yesterday‘s session on a corrective note, but similarly to recovering from Barkin‘s hawkish message, it did the same following FOMC minutes. Not even NVDA earnings volatility could take the ES below 4,535 – clients‘ long gains whether in swing or intraday publications, are growing – and the result really comes down to when you enter and how you work with risk along the way. Crucial question to ask – are these the circumstances favoring outsized bets, or not?
It boils down to what you think about the bond market – are we see another 10y yield rising episode?
Wednesday, November 22, 2023
Stock Market Trend Trajectory into Year End 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Are you ready to rumble! Lets see of earnings season volatility can deliver some more buying opps in target stocks over the next couple of weeks.
Where the S&P is concerned the expectation for an early October bottom at just below 4200 was freakily ac hived in terms of price and time and as my market brief illustrated going into October.
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Saturday, November 18, 2023
Quad Witching Cracks Stock Market Nuts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The S&P is complying with trend forecast expectations that saw Friday's Quad Witching day end down 1.22% at 4450, where some hours before the open I commented -
"It's QUAD Witching DAY. There is a 90% probability for a STRONG DOWN DAY! Which given where the likes of Apple are perched just above support should act as a catalyst for the the sell off into October."
Whilst apparently someone called Cem Karson was eager to convince folks that a correction was 'almost impossible!'
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Wednesday, November 08, 2023
Stock Market SP500 Trend Expectations / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The S&P is complying with trend forecast expectations that saw Friday's Quad Witching day end down 1.22% at 4450, where some hours before the open I commented -
"It's QUAD Witching DAY. There is a 90% probability for a STRONG DOWN DAY! Which given where the likes of Apple are perched just above support should act as a catalyst for the the sell off into October."
Whilst apparently someone called Cem Karson was eager to convince folks that a correction was 'almost impossible!'
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Wednesday, November 08, 2023
Stock Market SPX Bounce Underway, but Resistance Upcoming / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Gary_Tanashian
This article discusses one diverse component of the broad global markets; the US S&P 500. The market has some poor underpinnings that we routinely keep track of in NFTRH and are beyond the scope of this public article. Also beyond the scope are macro risk indicators, including the US dollar and its relationship with the Gold/Silver ratio.
Filtering all of that out, we have anticipated a seasonal bounce or rally due to market sentiment well biased to over-bearish, oversold conditions and the seasonal pattern (on average) for SPX that has turned up, as per this graphic first presented in NFTRH 779 on October 15.
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Wednesday, November 08, 2023
Stock Market Investing - Aren't We Here To Make Money? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Avi_Gilburt
All I have heard over the last year is that we are about to head into a recession – an economic construct suggesting a negative market environment. And, this has kept many quite bearish of the stock market, with most looking at the rally from 3500 to 4600SPX as the market being “wrong.” Well, I have some news for you, which was well said by the legendary Jesse Livermore:
“A prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrong, opinions often are.”
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Sunday, November 05, 2023
Stock Market Seasonal and Presidential Cycle Analysis, Bitcoin Final Warning! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Your analyst back from scam central (Istanbul), tourists need to factor in a getting scammed tax when visiting. Since my last article the S&P hit a low of 4333 followed by an ABC rally to a swing high of 4533, whilst a consolidation of the advance was expected, still this was more powerful than how I imagined it would play out ahead of targeting sub 4200 by Mid October and thus presents a significant deviation against my original trend forecast of some 11 months go.
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Thursday, November 02, 2023
Stock Market US Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Seem's like everyone's woken upto the importance of the US presidential election cycle. However as is the case with the seasonal pattern it is not the holy grail, has a similar 75% hit rate to the all years seasonal pattern where the real value is when one puts both together. In which respect confirms September should end DOWN, October higher whilst November and December could switch places, i.e a weak November would imply a strong December and visa versa.
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Thursday, November 02, 2023
Stock Market Seasonal Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The seasonal pattern suggested that after a pause in Feb the stock market should trend higher into early May for a weak May before correcting into late June follower by a strong July rally into Mid August before ending flat on the month, then followed by a weak September likely into early October that resolves in a rally into late December.
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Thursday, November 02, 2023
Stocks Are In a Rally Mode – Is This Just a Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Paul_Rejczak
S&P 500 went closer to 4,300 level again – will the uptrend resume?The S&P 500 index gained 1.05% on Wednesday as it got back above the 4,200 level following FOMC monetary policy release. Recently the market kept selling-off on geopolitical uncertainty, strong U.S. dollar, among other factors. Last Friday’s low was at 4,103.78 and it was the lowest since May 12. Yesterday’s daily high was at 4,245.64.
In early October stocks were rallying from their local lows along 4,220 level and on October 17 the index reached a local high of 4,394. There’s still a lot of uncertainty about monetary policy, economic growth and geopolitics.
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