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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 11, 2021

Sentiment Speaks: How Wrong You Are Mr. Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

So, I decided to read yet another article calling for a market crash. Needless to say, the body of the article offered nothing of true substance upon which I cared to comment, and I was saddened by the several minutes of time I wish I could have gotten back. That is, until I read the comments section, which provided me fodder to write this article.

“News flash, that bull market ended last year. We're in the beginning stages of a new one.”

“That crash is still going on, the market just hasn't caught up with it yet”

“Article #512 on SA in 2021 about the upcoming crash. Eventually, they will all be right. I do nothing different ever. I believe in my investments and I ride out crashes and corrections. Have cash available to buy which are wealth building opportunities. I always feel sorry for the poor panic sellers who miss out on so many gains because they are out of the market. It is only a loss if you sell. And, the market will come back and make new highs 100% of the time. This is an historical fact.”

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 10, 2021

Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist - The China Syndrome / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

China's property market is collapsing but the only data we have at present is anecdotal from the property developer canaries in the coal mine which have been under extreme distress for several months, with now dozens defaulting on their debts triggering fire sales of housing stock to raise revenues as they desperately fight to stay alive in the face of impending debt and interest payments, playing their part in the brewing Financial Crisis 2.0.

Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist

  • China housing market in distress - CHECK
  • China's economy slowing - CHECK
  • US Economy slowing - CHECK
  • Brewing STAGFLATION - Slowing economy coupled with rising prices - CHECK
  • Black Swan Event - Crisis at the ports - CHECK
  • Economic Models busted - Workers refusing to return to work not factored into Economic models - CHECK
  • REVERSE REPO MARKET - Banks desperate to swap deposit liabilities for T-bills collateral so as to lower capital requirements which has drained the capital markets of over $1 trillion - CHECK
  • STOCK MARKET BUBBLE - Valuations have lost touch with reality - CHECK
  • FED TAPERING into a Weakening Economy - Huge Risk of a valuation reset - CHECK
  • IMPEMDING DOOM! - The relentless march of the Climate Change Mega-trend where all that the worlds leaders did at COP26 was Blah Blah Blah - CHECK!
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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 10, 2021

Stock Market Long and Short-term Seasonal Trends / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends

By: Nadeem_Walayat

SEASONAL ANALYSIS

The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, higher into late April, then correct from early May into late June followed by a volatile summer terminating in a swing low during September that should set the scene for a bull run into the Christmas Holidays with of course intra month volatility during October that tends to resolve to the upside just as the perma-bears are crowing at their loudest that the end is neigh.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 10, 2021

Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The basic pattern is for falling yields to be bearish for stocks whilst rising yields are bullish for stocks. The reason being is that investors are selling bonds to buy stocks hence yields and stocks rise.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 09, 2021

Dow Stock Market ELLIOTT WAVES Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ELLIOTT WAVES 

Every high is the fifth of the fifth of the fifth! until the market fails to follow through and on we march with the next high then the next high, which is why I take Elliott Wave Theory with a mountain of salt.

My Elliott Wave pattern of Feb 2009 has proven remarkably accurate (as did the pattern before that), see being skeptical works! It's when people think they have found the holy grail when things start to go wrong!

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 09, 2021

Stock Market Bullish Trend Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  The 4540 projection which had been in effect since the March 2020 low has now been reached but appears to have been only an intermediate target.  Higher levels should now be reached before an important top is struck.

SPX Intermediate trend:  An intermediate correction has ended and given way to another intermediate uptrend. 

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 09, 2021

Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Dow has barely had any significant correction in now approaching a year, chugging along the upper resistance trend line for the past 6 months.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 08, 2021

Stock Market Dow Annual Percent Change Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Dow in percentage terms is well on it's way to retreating from it's most overbought state in decades, what usually tends to happen is that the Dow percent touches or more usually crosses below the red bar and for the bull market to resume would need to cross back above the red bar.How far would the Dow need to fall to fulfill this requirement in the allotted Sept / Oct correction time window? Probably to around 28k. However the alternative is that the Dow stays put around 34k to 35k for the next 6 months, which does not seem probable, so this indicator is suggesting a swift sharp drop to possibly as low as 28k within the next few weeks!

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 04, 2021

Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

This is part 2 of my extensive analysis that maps out the stock markets trend into Mid 2022 w- Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022

Part 1 - Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season

Contents:

  • Stock Market Forecast 2021 Review
  • Stock Market AI mega-trend Big Picture
  • US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
  • US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008
  • Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets
  • Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market
  • FED Balance Sheet
  • Weakening Stock Market Breadth
  • Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
  • FANG Stocks
  • Margin Debt
  • Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
  • Dow Annual Percent Change
  • Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
  • ELLIOTT WAVES Analysis
  • Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields
  • SEASONAL ANALYSIS
  • Short-term Seasonal Trend
  • US Presidential Cycle 
  • Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
  • 2021 - 2022 Seasonal Investing Pattern
  • Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
  • Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022 Conclusion
  • Investing fundamentals
  • IBM Continuing to Revolutionise Computing
  • AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
  • My Late October Stocks Buying Plan
  • HIGH RISK STOCKS - Invest and Forget!
  • Afghanistan The Next Chinese Province, Australia Living on Borrowed Time
  • CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!
  • Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment
  • Aukus Ruckus
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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 02, 2021

Stock Market Nearing Short-term High / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  The 4540 projection which had been in effect since the March 2020 low has now been reached but appears to have been only an intermediate target.  Higher levels should now be reached before an important top is struck.

SPX Intermediate trend:  An intermediate correction has ended and given way to another intermediate uptrend. 

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 01, 2021

Profit-Taking After Earnings May Send Stock Prices Lower / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks retraced their short-term decline yesterday, but today we may see a lower opening following the earnings releases. Is this a topping pattern?

The S&P 500 index gained 0.98% on Thursday, Oct. 28, as it retraced its whole Tuesday’s-Wednesday’s decline to the support level of 4,550. It got back to the Tuesday’s record high of 4,598.53 yesterday. The daily close was just 2 points below that level. The stock market is still reacting to quarterly corporate earnings releases. Yesterday we got the releases from AAPL and AMZN, among others. But the first reaction to their numbers was negative. The market seems overbought in the short-term it is most likely fluctuating within a topping pattern.

The nearest important support level is at 4,550, and the next support level is at 4,520-4,525, marked by the previous Wednesday’s daily gap up of 4,520.40-4,524.40. On the other hand, the resistance level is at around 4,600, marked by the new record high. Despite reaching new record highs, the S&P 500 remained below a very steep week-long upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 01, 2021

Wild Choppy Stock Market Moves / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

One-sided S&P 500 session, perhaps a bit too much – the bulls are likely to face issues extending gains when VIX is examined. The stock market sentiment remains mixed, and one could easily be pardoned for expecting larger gains on yesterday‘s magnitute of the dollar slump. And long-dated Treasuries barely moved – their daily candle approximates nicely the volatility one as both give the impression of wanting to move a bit higher while their Thursday‘s move was a countertrend one.

Not even value was able to surge past its Wednesday‘s setback, which makes me think the bears can return easily. At the same time, tech stepped into the void, and had a positive day, balancing the dowwnside S&P 500 risks significantly. The very short-term outlook in stocks is unclear, and choppy trading between yesterday‘s highs and 4,550 shouldn‘t be surprising today.

At the same time, precious metals could have had a much stronger day – but the sentiment was risk-off in spite of the tanking dollar and doubted yields as the rising tech and gold at the expense of silver illustrate. Miners recent outperformance was absent just as much as commodities vigor with the exception of copper. And it‘s more celebrations in the red metal following its steep and far reaching correction, that‘s the part of missing ingredients as much as fresh inflation fears (yes, adding to risk-off mood, inflation expectations declined yesterday).

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, October 31, 2021

Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here's why PE ratio's matter as the following chart shows the return 10 years forward from the starting average PE i.e if the stock market is trading on an average PE of 27 than can basically be expected to go nowhere for the next 10 years. Whilst the lower the PE the higher the expected return (on average), where the safe zone for investing is at a starting PE of between 10 and 20.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, October 31, 2021

Inflationary Wonderland / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Gary_Tanashian

Inflation has permeated the macro markets; where to from here?

Apologies in advance for some of the possibly confusing content to follow. But if this were easy anyone could do it, eh? There are a lot of balls in the air; balls known as inflation vs. deflation and most of all time frames.

The media present inflation as this guy picking out higher priced fruit. Wait til he gets to the meat department! You can click the graphic for the article at CNBC.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, October 30, 2021

Stock Market Volaility - What is Contango in the VIX? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

If you are new to trading or have been trading stock but are interested in options, you can find more information at The Technical Traders – Options Trading Signals Service.  The head option’s trading specialist Neil Szczepanski who has been trading options for almost 20 years sends out real live trade alerts on real trades with real money.  Come check it out here: TheTechnicalTraders.com

I have been trading options and coaching / mentoring other new options traders for years.  I have seen new traders who were lucky and ended up with some winning trades and others who were so frustrated and on the verge of giving up.  I have seen it all.  One of the things I have noticed is that very few people understand the VIX or AKA the fear gauge to the markets. 

Many know that it is a measure of fear but they don’t really understand what it is and how it is constructed.  If you are an options trader, I would argue it is very important that you as a trader understand what the VIX is and how it works. 

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Stock-Markets

Friday, October 29, 2021

What Do The Current Earnings Reports Tell Us About The Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

I am going to let you in on one of my pet peeves this week: I abhor intellectual dishonesty in analysis. And, earnings season always brings to light some wonderful examples.

I was recently told quite confidently by another contributor that the direction of a stock is based upon its earnings. I know this is a common view within the market, but it is far from the truth.

While everyone thinks the market makes sense when a stock price rises on a good earnings report or drops on a bad earnings report, let’s try to understand what happens when a stock declines on good news. So, when blow-out earnings about a company are announced, yet the stock immediately begins to decline, the common theme we hear from the talking heads is that the earnings news was already “priced in” to the stock price. Right?

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, October 26, 2021

Chinese Tech Stocks CCP Paranoia and Best AI Tech Stocks ETF / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

The stock market is continuing to rally on FOMO fumes with the Dow up 1.5% for August as the market enters the seasonally worst month of the year for stocks, followed by October, and we all know what October's tend to herald, especially for markets that have run well beyond every expectation and value metric that one can think of which is true for a wide spectrum of stocks from our AI tech giants right through to the junk that populates the likes of Cathy Woods ARK Funds, metrics as I covered in recent analysis such as the Reverse REPO market RED FLAG, then we have margin debt soaring to well beyond all previous market highs which actually would be expected in nominal terms given inflation, however Margin debt has also soared to new highs as a percentage of GDP 3.9% vs 3% in 2000. Here's another flashing RED LIGHT that of the market cap of negative earning stocks exceeding that of the dot com bubble, so folks enjoy your FOMO whilst it lasts, I personally have battened down the hatches for the hurricane that's coming our way that will likely blow novice investors out of the water, especially those who are investing on margin!

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, October 26, 2021

Has Zillow’s Collapse Signaled A Warning For The Capital Markets? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Watching Zillow (ZG) move from over $200 per share to recent levels below $90, reflecting a more than 55% collapse in price, while the housing market continues to rally may be an indication that traders/investors have already discounted the future peak in the US capital markets and Real Estate assets related to the current market environment. Zillow is not the only symbol experiencing this broad price decline. Redfin (RDFN) has also declined more than 54% over the past 7+ months.

Is The Peak In Real Estate Flippers Prices Sending A Strong Warning For Traders/Investors?

The peak in these stocks happened near February 16~22, 2021. This date, interestingly enough, aligns with a peak in global capital markets using my proprietary Smart Cash Index and a very clear peak in the Chinese Hang Seng Index.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, October 26, 2021

Stock Market New Intermediate uptrend / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  The 4540 projection which had been in effect since the March 2020 low has now been reached but appears to have been only an intermediate target.  Higher levels should now be reached before an important top is struck.

SPX Intermediate trend:  An intermediate correction has ended and given way to another intermediate uptrend. 

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Monday, October 25, 2021

Stock Market Against Bond Market Odds / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

Such was the S&P 500 correction, how did you like it? The whiff of risk-off that I was looking for yesterday, was a very shallow one in stocks, and much deeper in real assets. What‘s remarkable about the stock market upswing, is that it was led by tech while value barely clung to its opening values – and yields rose yet again. But the dynamic is supposed to work the other way – even financials felt the pinch, but at least real estate rose.

Another characteristic worth noting is that the dollar increased yesterday too, and stocks didn‘t mind. The VIX closed almost at 15, which is its lowest value since the beginning of Jul. S&P 500 indeed didn‘t hesitate at 4,520, and broke above similarly to the prior turning point (that wasn‘t) at 4,420. I‘m letting the open long S&P 500 profits run as rising yields aren‘t yet a problem for stocks, and inflation isn‘t still strong enough to break the bulls‘ back – but inflation expectations keep rising, and that‘s a factor once again underpinning precious metals.

When a brief risk-off moment arrives though, commodities are to feel the pinch, and that‘s true also about silver as opposed to gold. Indeed yesterday, the yellow metal did much better than the white one. Copper corrected with a delay to the fresh LME trading measures, and quite profoundly given that the London stockpile represents only a day‘s worth of China factory copper consumption. The dust in the red metal hasn‘t yet settled, but black gold recovered smartly from the steep intraday drop to $81, dealing open oil profits – and the selling in oil stocks looks to be overdone on a daily basis. Finally, the Bitcoin setback I was looking for, happened, but doesn‘t spell the end of the crypto run – more cypto gains to enjoy.

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