Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, June 20, 2016

Bonds And Stocks At All-Time Highs: Are Markets Confused Or Broken? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: InvestingHaven

We observe odd trends in the market, the most important one being Treasuries and stocks both trading near all-time highs. That is definitely not ‘normal’ (whatever that term means nowadays), as bonds stand for ‘risk off’ (a safe haven asset) while stocks are only performing in a ‘risk on’ environment.

Saturday, June 18, 2016

Stock Market Inflection Point During Bifurcation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Tony_Caldaro

The market started the week at SPX 2096. After hitting SPX 2098 in the first hour of trading on Monday the market dropped to 2064 by Tuesday. A rally followed into Wednesday on the FOMC meeting, and the market hit SPX 2086 minutes after the FOMC statement. Then the market pulled back again, gapped down to open Thursday, and hit SPX 2050 before rallying to 2080 into the close. Friday saw a lower open as the market dropped to SPX 2063, then bounced to close the week at 2071. For the week the SPX/DOW were -1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.90%. Economic reports for the week were again mostly positive. On the downtick: industrial production, capacity utilization, housing starts and weekly jobless claims rose. On the uptick: the NY/Philly FED, the NAHB, building permits, the Q2 GDP est., export/import prices, retail sales, business inventories, and the CPI/PPI. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by FED chair Yellen’s semiannual economic report to Congress, Durable goods orders and more Housing reports.

Saturday, June 18, 2016

Nasdaq Underperforming Again....Brexit Is Next Up... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

The most interesting thing to take away from the past two years of going nowhere has been the continued, under-performance of those tech stocks everyone loves to own. For the most, and there have been small periods of exceptions, the Nasdaq has been the place big money doesn't want to go very often. The focus has been on safety plays. Lower risk plays with lower P/E's. Lower valuations over risk simply, because valuations are so out of line with reality. Tech stocks have those higher valuations, and quite often those higher valuations have led to some nasty blood baths.

Friday, June 17, 2016

Stock Market On the Brink? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX made an impulse down and may be finishing the retracement as I write. Instead of the 50-day acting as resistance we now have the mid-Cycle resistance at 2076.32 in its place. Stock options “mature” at 3:00 pm, so there may be a let-down into the close.

Friday, June 17, 2016

Brexit: "The Vote Heard Around the World" / Stock-Markets / EU_Referendum

By: EWI

Our new free report gives you our well-researched opinion on Brexit -- and the markets

The campaign for the June 23 referendum on whether or not Britain should remain a member of the European Union has just hit a horrific milestone. CNBC reports that,

Friday, June 17, 2016

Overnight Markets Struggling to Stay Flat / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The SPX Premarket is struggling to stay near yesterday’s closing price for the close of index options at the open this morning. Today is Quadruple Witching day, which has the probability of being very volatile.

ZeroHedge writes, “Traders are still stunned by the dramatic move in risk assets during yesterday's US session. As a reminder, at the lows for the day in the mid-morning Eastern Time, we saw the DAX at -1.81%, FTSE -1.13%, S&P500 -1.03%, US 10y yield 1.516% (lowest since August 2012) and GBPUSD 1.401. By the various closes these rallied to -0.59%, -0.27%, +0.31%, 1.580% and 1.420 respectively!

Friday, June 17, 2016

Stock Market Thinking Upside Down; Dow 18k Still Key / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Doug_Wakefield

Do you remember the ‘70s, and the all-star disaster films like the Towering Inferno and the Poseidon Adventure? As interest rates and gas prices soared, we “escaped” to the theatre to watch these big disaster films. 

You will remember in the Poseidon Adventure that a luxury liner traveling from New York to Athens is broadside by a huge rogue wave set off by an underwater earthquake. The entire ship is turned upside down.  Reverend Scott (Gene Hackman) surmises that the solution is to be found by climbing upwards to the stern, where the ship’s propellers are now the highest point on the ship. Robin (Eric Shea) is a young man interested in ships and tells Scott that the hull is only 1 inch thick near the propeller shaft.

Thursday, June 16, 2016

Flash Crash - Stock Market May See a Large Move Overnight / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

It now appears that the 50-day Moving Average at 2077.32 is the probable target for this afternoon’s bounce. By 4:00 pm, this entire cycle from 2120.55 to today’s top will have taken 43 hours.

It’s time to prepare for a flash crash.

Thursday, June 16, 2016

Stock Market Second Leg of the Retracement On Its Way / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX may finish the second leg (Wave [c]) of its retracement at 2085.00 by the end of the day. The target is precisely where [c] equals [a]. This is a very orderly pattern, for once!

If you have gone to cash this morning, you may wish to go short by the end of the day.

Thursday, June 16, 2016

Stock Market, Iron Ore, Bitcoin – Is Silver Next for Chinese Momentum Investors? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: John_Lee

The roulette game all started in the fall of 2014, about 2 years after Chairman Xi Jinping came to power and became the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China.

Xi Jinping had campaigned for socialist economic reform, including a sweeping anti-corruption drive, cutting excess production capacity, tightening of housing credit, and clamping down on gaming in Macau. Public feedback was initially positive. However, largely as a result of those policies, Beijing was facing an increasingly grim economic growth outlook which was the worst in more than two decades*.

Thursday, June 16, 2016

Stocks Fluctuate Following Recent Decline - Bottom Or Just Pause Before Another Leg Down? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,120, and profit target at 2,000, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains bearish, as the S&P 500 index extends its lower highs, lower lows sequence:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Thursday, June 16, 2016

Fed Does Nothing As Expected.... Stock Market Nowhere As Always....Brexit on Deck... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

The market, for the most part, has been trading down lately due to the uncertainty the Euro zone is facing once next Thursday comes and goes. That's when we find out if Britain stays or goes out of the Euro zone. Fear of them leaving has the market mostly on the down side with the banks the most vulnerable and overall taking the hardest hits lower. They rebounded from very oversold today but they have the most risk ahead of and after the vote. If the vote is to stay they should have quite a rebound higher, but again, the unknown is having a very short-term adverse-affect for them, and, thus, the market overall. The banks are also vulnerable because, as we saw today, Fed Yellen is once again in no rush to raise rates, even though they badly need to do so. If rates stay down, and Brexit is a negative, the banks are in big trouble. Yellen is totally dependent on future Jobs Reports, with regards to deciding when to raise rates one more time for 2016.

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

During the Next Financial Crisis, Entire Countries Will Go Bust / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016

By: Graham_Summers

For seven years, the world has operated under a complete delusion that Central Banks somehow fixed the 2008 Crisis.

All of the arguments claiming this defied common sense. A 5th grader would tell you that you cannot solve a debt problem by issuing more debt. Similarly, anyone with a functioning brain could tell you that a bunch of academics with no real-world experience, none of whom have ever started a business or created a single job can’t “save” the economy.

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Alignment Of The Dow, Interest Rates, Debt and Silver Cycles Will Deliver A Fatal Blow / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Hubert_Moolman

Since the inception of the debt-based monetary system (with its fractional-reserve banking), the banks have been playing a nasty game of Russian roulette. The only reason that the system has not blown-up is because the relevant cycles have not adequately lined up to deliver a fatal blow.

They have been allowed to play it long enough, and it now appears that the fatal blow will be delivered soon (just like Russian roulette when you play it long enough). The coming Dow crash is the likely trigger that will deliver this blow.

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Stock Market Bounce May be Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX may have met its match with the Broadening trendline at a 35% retracement. The peak came at 10:13 am, just 7 minutes over the 30.1 hours required to complete the Cycle.

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

How to Invest for Brexit Report / Stock-Markets / EU_Referendum

By: EWI

Dear reader,

If you follow Europe's major financial news networks, you're no doubt inundated by all the rumor and conjecture surrounding the Brexit referendum -- it dominates the headlines.

Back across the pond, the Washington Post calls it the "most important vote in Europe in a half-century."

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Stock Market Short of the Decade? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX has completed two impulses down. Wave [i] ended at 2088.30. The second impulse ended at 2064.18. If it is Wave [iii], then Wave 1 may end near 2035.00 to 2040.00, a bit short of our initial target. The second impulse has filled its only gap this morning, so it is not acting like a Wave [iii]. That suggests something else is going on.

If this is a {i]-[ii], (i)-(ii) combination, then Wave (iii) may be a multiple of the two combined waves (56.37 points).

Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Stock Market Sell Off Coming! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Chris_Vermeulen

This “distortion” between “risk” and “return” has created a “bubble” effect in all global equity classes. I informed my subscribers to exit the SPX on November 25^th, 2014 and to enter cash. Their equity risk exposure was reduced to zero. Momentum oscillators are now extremely overbought and are very clearly trending bearish.  I wait for confirmation before entering any new long SDS and long VXX positions.

This week (Tuesday) there is another FOMC meeting. The news of this monetary policy will be released on Wednesday, June 16^th, 2016. Expect choppier price going into the meeting and shortly thereafter.

Tuesday, June 14, 2016

QE - The Good, Bad & Ugly / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing

By: Axel_Merk

Are we better off with "QE", the ultra-accommodative monetary policy pursued by major central banks around the world? Is it "mission accomplished" or are we facing a "ticking time bomb"? Are extreme characterizations even warranted to describe the unconventional monetary policy of recent years, and what are implications for investors?

Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Stock Market, Gold Miners Forecasts Update / Stock-Markets / Articles

By: Brad_Gudgeon

I had an alternate I posted a few weeks ago that suggested that the S&P 500 would fall to 1995/96 by June 17, then rally strongly into month’s end.  Today’s market action suggests that the alternate is the likely choice going forward.